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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 469

dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 3:48:19 PM | message detail
At any rate, this is at least one of the top five comebacks we've seen in terms of votes turned around already, isn't it?
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chocoboslayer | Posted 9/7/2007 3:51:21 PM | message detail
The perfects called Scorpion > Midna, so they might do well with this one.

*called Scorpion > Midna*

*did not call Marcus > Kefka*

*is pissed*
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PotD's OFFICIAL King of Games!
The Choco. The Cream of Yuna Fanboyism.
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/7/2007 3:51:40 PM | message detail
Sigh...I still can't believe Kuja lost to a freaking glove...

I think that was the night everyone knew the true power of Super Smash Bros. on this site.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 3:53:02 PM | message detail
Not to dwell on it, I'm just trying to figure out if this has the potential to be the biggest turn around we've seen. Master hand/kuja was around 6,000, and we're already over 3,800 here when you look at the biggest lead the losers had.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 3:53:51 PM | message detail
It was less smash bros. power, and more kuja being one of the most fodderific characters ever, even for the villains contest.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 9/7/2007 4:01:55 PM | message detail
Good point, Kuja is probably the most mocked Square character ever even by the FF fanbase.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 4:04:33 PM | message detail
But Kuja's one of the better FF villains...BAH!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Heroic Viktor | Posted 9/7/2007 4:09:08 PM | message detail
And the XBox day vote is even better than I was anticipating. Gears of War was absolutely loved (IS absolutely loved). I am very intrigued for Fenix vs. Jill/Ocelot. Very, very intrigued.

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128 character battle royale? My head hurts.
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 4:10:24 PM | message detail
I thought kuja was a good villain even if he did look to be wearing a thong in the cinematics, he just did really badly to a laughable extent in a contest setting.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 4:12:38 PM | message detail
If marcus gains around 2k votes in the next five hours, he'll make a bigger turn around then master hand on kuja... which might be the largest we've seen if someone can confirm that. I can't think of any bigger comebacks then that off hand anyways.
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Lopen | Posted 9/7/2007 4:23:23 PM | message detail
Haha.. holy crap, Fenix is annihilating Kefka. <3.

Even though I had Kefka, and don't even really know who Fenix is... <3 anyway!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lopen | Posted 9/7/2007 4:25:38 PM | message detail
And man, the heck with that. A comeback only counts if you're recovering votes. The rest is just overflow!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 4:31:19 PM | message detail
Man, this is just impressive here by Fenix and just pathetic by Kefka. I didn't think you could manage a turnaround of this proportion in this format, but then again, Kefka IS involved...

And I'll admit, Ocelot/Nemesis is the one thing that makes me feel bad about his chances, but he doesn't have to be directly stronger than Jill to beat her in this format. It's not as one-sided as people are making it out to be. Jill wouldn't beat Pac-Man that handily, for the record.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
charmander6000 | Posted 9/7/2007 4:36:23 PM | message detail
*Looks at poll*

I knew Marcus would comeback, but I never thought it would be this big, this fast.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 5: Marcus Fenix > Kefka Palazzo Points: 14/16
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 4:40:18 PM | message detail
You know, I pegged the Midgar Zolom at 7% for tomorrow's match, and yet...I feel like I'm overshooting. With vote totals being so high, it's really going to hurt him, I think. He's only going to get so many votes from people who actually think the joke is funny, and then he's not going to get the "FFVII > EVERYTHING!" voters like ExTha. If this match gets 150,000+ votes (And you know Cloud is a GREAT vote draw), then I think he might struggle to get 5% here.

Speaking of which, it's a shame that match wasn't today, seeing how today's the 10th anniversary of FFVII's American release.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 4:43:39 PM | message detail
Hey Kefka fans, if you think this performance is bad, just wait until Cloud sticks his Buster Sword up Kefka's Cabbage Patch in Round 2.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Tai | Posted 9/7/2007 4:48:43 PM | message detail
Nook just won another update vs Kefka! ROFL!
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Chris Benoit - Showing you how roid rage brings out the monster in all of us. :-) Shall he burn in hell.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 4:49:41 PM | message detail
More bells charged to Kefka's account!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/7/2007 4:50:36 PM | message detail
You know, I pegged the Midgar Zolom at 7% for tomorrow's match, and yet...I feel like I'm overshooting. With vote totals being so high, it's really going to hurt him, I think. He's only going to get so many votes from people who actually think the joke is funny, and then he's not going to get the "FFVII > EVERYTHING!" voters like ExTha. If this match gets 150,000+ votes (And you know Cloud is a GREAT vote draw), then I think he might struggle to get 5% here.

Thing is, that match has the least diverse fanbase of any match we've seen so far, which is going to hurt it...though Cloud usually manages decent vote totals even in SFF matches.
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Adamantno1 | Posted 9/7/2007 4:51:08 PM | message detail
It's over.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
Tai | Posted 9/7/2007 4:51:30 PM | message detail
It's been over.
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Chris Benoit - Showing you how roid rage brings out the monster in all of us. :-) Shall he burn in hell.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 4:53:16 PM | message detail
It's still not that great of an overlap outside of Cloud and Zolom. Cloud draws a lot of votes in one-on-one matches, and he'll do just fine in a four way.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/7/2007 4:53:17 PM | message detail
Marcus is going to beat Kairi's comeback on Claire by the end of this. Absolutely insane in a 4-way. Doesn't seem like this is hampering comebacks at all.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/7/2007 4:54:41 PM | message detail
Tom Nook won the second-to last update against Kefka? Wow.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 4:54:46 PM | message detail
Kefka and Frog matched up against the XBox and KH day votes respectively are making comebacks looking easier in this format than they really are...
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 4:58:35 PM | message detail
The match with three high midcarders outdrew the both of the Noble Nine matches thus far...but, then, it is Cloud. There doesn't seem to be any other matches with three high quality characters (though there's a bunch with two), so the first day might keep the record for a while if Cloud and co. can't beat it.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:02:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, the bottom of the barrel day votes consists of Old Square, Alucard, and Resident Evil sans Leon. The top consists of Kingdom Hearts and XBox characters.

Most everybody else (like Nintendo and New Square) is somewhere in between, so don't expect comebacks of this magnitude every other match.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 5:02:43 PM | message detail
From glancing at the updates, looks like Kefka gave people a totally false hope with his morning/afternoon in-school vote stalling. Glad I wasn't around for that.

Seems that the after-school vote is the real thing to watch for in close matches, nothing is all that clear until then. Though the direction of it's effects seem to be predictable.

Right now I think that Jak/Lloyd/HK-47 match is like a complete toss-up.

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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 5:04:23 PM | message detail
For next round, like I said last night, I'm quite confident in Marcus beating Jill/Ocelot next round.

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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 5:05:07 PM | message detail
Did topic 468 have any notable discussion?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:05:32 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid is still, uhhh...down there, more than likely, except for Snake. Although I think The Boss won the day vote against Celes (but that WAS FFVI) and perhaps Tifa as well, though Tifa is weird in that she's bad with the day vote, contrary to the rest of FFVII characters.

It'll be interesting to watch the day vote tomorrow and the next round. Cloud should own face tomorrow with the day vote with Ocelot and Jill having bad day votes. The next round should be even more interesting, with Cloud and Marcus taking on Kefka and Jill/Ocelot. We're going to see Cloud and Marcus skyrocket while Kefka and the other plummet.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:06:11 PM | message detail
It'll be interesting to see how Yuna/Chief 1 goes in that regard.

As for Jak/HK/that other PoS character, I have a feeling Jak takes it simply by being the most relevant character in there. It's been a few years since KotOR and ToS could say they were worth a damn.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:06:47 PM | message detail
Right now I think that Jak/Lloyd/HK-47 match is like a complete toss-up.

I thought it was a toss-up except for Lloyd. I thought he was the least reasonable pick to make, and today only makes me more confident in that. Kratos (and maybe Sheena) are the only halfway decent ToS characters.

...Man, Jade is going to bomb HARD, even in that fourpack he got.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:07:59 PM | message detail
how is Ocelot's day vote? is it as bad as I'd expect, or at least better than Jill's?
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http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg
now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:08:12 PM | message detail
Heh, will this year's Jade be as utterly disappointing as last year's Jade?

I think so

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:09:26 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid doesn't seem quite at the bottom (at least not as bad as those guys) anymore, though it's hard to say because we haven't seen Ocelot and Liquid Snake in a while. Snake was respectable last year, though, so I let him off the hook.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:10:30 PM | message detail
well, there's one easy way to find out!

wow, Ocelot was rocking Nemesis early and fell HARD all day. think Frog/Riku.
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http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg
now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:11:05 PM | message detail
It's been a few years since KotOR and ToS could say they were worth a damn.

I don't think that's good enough to take him over HK-47 just yet.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:11:24 PM | message detail
Snake is good with the day vote because he now has a good sized Nintendo backing along with his usual MGS fans. Other Metal Gear characters, not so much.

Unless suddenly Raiden is announced for Smash or something

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:12:40 PM | message detail
Time | Ocelot | Pac-Man
01:00 | 50.11% | 49.89%
02:00 | 51.83% | 48.17%
03:00 | 51.87% | 48.13%
04:00 | 50.04% | 49.96%
05:00 | 48.16% | 51.84%
06:00 | 48.41% | 51.59%
07:00 | 47.53% | 52.47%
08:00 | 46.10% | 53.90%
09:00 | 48.34% | 51.66%
10:00 | 48.90% | 51.10%
11:00 | 48.07% | 51.93%
12:00 | 47.67% | 52.33%
13:00 | 48.99% | 51.01%
14:00 | 49.56% | 50.44%
15:00 | 47.22% | 52.78%
16:00 | 47.52% | 52.48%
17:00 | 47.57% | 52.43%
18:00 | 48.43% | 51.57%
19:00 | 47.84% | 52.16%
20:00 | 48.45% | 51.55%
21:00 | 50.65% | 49.35%
22:00 | 50.99% | 49.01%
23:00 | 51.85% | 48.15%
00:00 | 53.79% | 46.21%

These are time shifted forward three hours, and I'm pretty sure it took place in the summer, so he did pretty horrible during the day. I don't know if he improved with Snake or not to the point of being better than Jill, but you can be damn sure he's worse than Cloud.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:12:43 PM | message detail
I'll still never understand how Nemesis did so well in the VC. I mean, sure he was scary, and was the only horror movie/game character to ever give me nightmares, but he's freaking Nemesis for crying out loud.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:14:35 PM | message detail
Ocelot vs. Pac-Man:

50.35% at 8 A.M. EST
Finished with 48.75%, went as low as 48.46%

Ocelot vs. Nemesis:

58.11% at 8 A.M. EST
Finished with 54.66%

Ocelot vs. Wily:

55.62% at 8 A.M. EST
Finished with 54.51%

Ocelot vs. Bowser:

36.27% at 8 A.M. EST
Finished with 34%, went as low as 33.87%
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:15:50 PM | message detail
I'm glad to see Nemesis is much more formidable than Wesker.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:16:23 PM | message detail
So Ocelot losing the day vote to Nemesis doesn't inspire any confident. He had over 60% to start, too.

...Would Nemesis be better in the day than Jill? He took off more percentage than any other match involving Ocelot.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:16:29 PM | message detail
Time | Ocelot | Nemesis
01:00 | 60.52% | 39.48%
02:00 | 56.10% | 43.90%
03:00 | 57.02% | 42.98%
04:00 | 56.32% | 43.68%
05:00 | 54.21% | 45.79%
06:00 | 54.11% | 45.89%
07:00 | 56.79% | 43.21%
08:00 | 55.69% | 44.31%
09:00 | 55.69% | 44.31%
10:00 | 54.95% | 45.05%
11:00 | 54.03% | 45.97%
12:00 | 54.96% | 45.04%
13:00 | 53.59% | 46.41%
14:00 | 52.34% | 47.66%
15:00 | 53.06% | 46.94%
16:00 | 52.70% | 47.30%
17:00 | 52.47% | 47.53%
18:00 | 53.64% | 46.36%
19:00 | 52.05% | 47.95%
20:00 | 54.80% | 45.20%
21:00 | 54.13% | 45.87%
22:00 | 54.68% | 45.32%
23:00 | 57.30% | 42.70%
00:00 | 54.49% | 45.51%

As a rule I don't place much faith in the Villains contest, but losing the day vote to Nemesis is pretty bad no matter how you look at it.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:17:43 PM | message detail
meh, I still have faith in Ocelot.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 5:17:57 PM | message detail
Man, I hope Jill pulls through for 2nd tomorrow. I'm in desperate need of 4 points. Seriously, if any of you need lewd sexual acts performed on you in exchange for contest points, shoot me an e-mail at sexygurl696969@yahoo.com
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trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:19:27 PM | message detail
I think it's just easier to take percentage when you're down that much and your opponent has such a dreadful day vote.
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http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg
now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:20:24 PM | message detail
I don't think it will really matter who gets the slice of the day vote pie. Both are good enough at night that I have a feeling Jill might have this sandwich saran wrapped before the day vote even hits.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:20:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think part of the reason that Kefka has looked so bad compared to Frog is that he had more percentage to lose. If Frog were in this poll, he might be doin' the same thing.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
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