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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 469

Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 1:49:41 PM | message detail
Obviously the Pac-adjustment isn't perfect

It's based on the Kefka match in 2003.

Crono lost some updates to Master Chief. Didn't prevent him from 60-40ing him.

Actually, MC never won an update in that match. He came *perilously* close, but...
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Consolesonlyalt | Posted 9/7/2007 1:51:10 PM | message detail
^ right I should've checked that. But still, the point stands.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 1:51:37 PM | message detail
Console, you just said the exact same thing as KH. I KNOW that trends alone don't mean anything, but again - a great day vote > a crap day vote, and again, if you're regularly beating up a guy in a 4-way match to the point where he can't get anywhere near 50 votes of you per 5-minute update, you're doing pretty well, whatever the time.

Besides which, he didn't exactly capitulate at night, did he? Kefka was well within his sights the whole time.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 1:52:29 PM | message detail
...and Kefka beat Pac. Do you really think Ocelot has gained in strength since 2K5, or Kefka has dropped that much? He's been consist in the stats since 2K4, obviously he wasn't around last year, but again, all signs point to them being neck and neck.

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Consolesonlyalt | Posted 9/7/2007 1:54:01 PM | message detail
Console, you just said the exact same thing as KH. I KNOW that trends alone don't mean anything, but again - a great day vote > a crap day vote, and again, if you're regularly beating up a guy in a 4-way match to the point where he can't get anywhere near 50 votes of you per 5-minute update, you're doing pretty well, whatever the time.

Besides which, he didn't exactly capitulate at night, did he? Kefka was well within his sights the whole time.


Yeah you're right. This is 'impressive' in the sense that Marcus will be finishing with a couple of % above Kefka in a 4-way poll, while many thought Kefka would come out on top. It's a common misunderstanding though, I just wanted to make sure.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 1:54:15 PM | message detail
I'd say Ocelot gained in strength...if only because he's leeching off Snake's newfound strength.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 1:55:23 PM | message detail
...except that doesn't make any sense.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 1:55:30 PM | message detail
ah yes, Snake's Nintendo boost spread to every MGS character.

THIS MAKES NO SENSE WHY AM I READING IT
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Lady Ashe | Posted 9/7/2007 1:56:50 PM | message detail
The obvious reason is that seeing all of the Snake hype got people interested in the series.

It may be true, but it won't be a significant factor. Hell, it will barely be an insignificant one.
~~~
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 1:58:03 PM | message detail
No. Will you people stop misunderstanding everything I say? >_<

I'm only talking about a 1% boost here, if that. Is it so insane to think that the boost Snake got from SSBB hype (and NO, I don't think it was exclusively that before anybody says stuff) transferred into more people playing the MGS games, and, *gasp*, liking Ocelot?
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 1:58:34 PM | message detail
We're not misunderstanding it, you're just saying a lot of dumb things.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 1:58:50 PM | message detail
Well, 2 points is better than nothing...and I'm sure not too many people took Marcus > Kefka to really kill my overall chances. Moving on to tomorrow, Jill > Ocelot.............please. I need 4 points.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 1:58:53 PM | message detail
Nintendo fans are so hardcore, that after finding out about Snake in SSBB, they went to Wikipedia, researched every single Metal Gear Solid character, and placed them right behind Link and Mario on their favorites list.

God bless em.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 1:59:05 PM | message detail
Let's not forget that Ocelot has had MGS3:S since as well. Not a massive factor, but then I'm not talking about a massive boost.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 1:59:36 PM | message detail
FOR THE LOVE OF CHRIST IT'S KEFKA

How strong do you think jill is exactly? Just wondering, because there's going to be at least two or three percentage points between marcus and kefka when this is over, and when you consider it's a four way match, that doesn't exactly put jill leagues ahead of him.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 1:59:44 PM | message detail
Nintendo fans are so hardcore, that after finding out about Snake in SSBB, they went to Wikipedia, researched every single Metal Gear Solid character, and placed them right behind Link and Mario on their favorites list.

Or they bought the games...?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/7/2007 2:00:31 PM | message detail
Ocelot is probably a little stronger than when we last saw him -- MGS3:S, appearances in the MGS4 trailers, and perhaps leeching just a bit from Solid in SSBB -- but I seriously wouldn't expect it to affect many match-ups for him. He might beat Pac-Man now...if your throw in a MGS3 pic of him. Other than that, I expect Ocelot to barely be stronger than in 2k5.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 2:00:46 PM | message detail
Nintendo fans are so hardcore, that after finding out about Snake in SSBB, they went to Wikipedia, researched every single Metal Gear Solid character, and placed them right behind Link and Mario on their favorites list.

God bless em.


lol
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 2:00:48 PM | message detail
If they actually researches snake, they'd find out what an overhyped character he is, and not vote for him. >_>
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 2:01:01 PM | message detail
Totally forgot about that huge spike in MGS sales since the SSBB trailer, HM could you get me the sales figures on that again, what was it, 1 million sold?

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 2:01:19 PM | message detail
but I seriously wouldn't expect it to affect many match-ups for him

Not even the apparent "50-50" with Kefka?
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:01:35 PM | message detail
But then they wouldnt be Nintendo fanboys

I laff if you actually think Snake appearing in a trailer caused every Nfan to sudden drop everything and buy MGS 1-3
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 2:02:57 PM | message detail
I hope snake ends up being the bowser of ssbb. That would be awesome.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:03:03 PM | message detail
Time | Kefka . . | Fenix . . | Nook . . | Zelos
01:00 | 34.69% | 33.33% | 18.94% | 13.04%
02:00 | 37.44% | 34.06% | 16.49% | 12.01%
03:00 | 37.67% | 34.18% | 16.15% | 12.00%
04:00 | 37.45% | 33.30% | 17.69% | 11.56%
05:00 | 37.80% | 32.61% | 16.82% | 12.77%
06:00 | 36.79% | 34.34% | 16.94% | 11.93%
07:00 | 32.25% | 33.54% | 20.53% | 13.69%
08:00 | 32.98% | 32.85% | 21.41% | 12.75%
09:00 | 35.14% | 34.67% | 17.55% | 12.64%
10:00 | 35.76% | 34.52% | 17.28% | 12.44%
11:00 | 34.77% | 36.65% | 16.12% | 12.47%
12:00 | 34.89% | 35.92% | 16.80% | 12.39%
13:00 | 34.42% | 37.54% | 16.72% | 11.32%
14:00 | 36.22% | 35.90% | 16.80% | 11.08%
15:00 | 32.08% | 37.13% | 18.16% | 12.63%
16:00 | 28.34% | 39.17% | 20.11% | 12.37%
17:00 | 26.51% | 40.10% | 20.44% | 12.95%

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:03:20 PM | message detail
I laff if you actually think Snake appearing in a trailer caused every Nfan to sudden drop everything and buy MGS 1-3

Nintendo fans laugh at your casualness.
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furryjenny | Posted 9/7/2007 2:03:32 PM | message detail
Is it so shameful that I'd never even heard of MGS1-3 before MGS4 hype and SSBB?

I have Cloud>Ocelot. What can I say? I'm a JRPG fan.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 2:03:42 PM | message detail
EC, maybe you could stop being such a nob for once. 1 million sold? Hardly. A few more people getting interested in the series and liking arguably its most badass character? Very, very possible.

I laff if you actually think Snake appearing in a trailer caused every Nfan to sudden drop everything and buy MGS 1-3

FOR. ****S. SAKE.

NOT. EVERY. ONE. JUST. SOME. NOT. EVEN. THAT. MANY. JUST. SOME. LIKE, A FEW.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:03:43 PM | message detail
Tom Nook is dominating the after-school vote!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:04:06 PM | message detail
That's just ****ing sad, RP, and I feel like a total moron for not predicting it.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 2:05:17 PM | message detail
I obviously using that number completely seriously, and not to poke fun at you. Obviously.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 9/7/2007 2:05:51 PM | message detail
Not even the apparent "50-50" with Kefka?

I'd take Kefka > Ocelot regardless for the same reason Frog beat Axel the other day.
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lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/7/2007 2:06:24 PM | message detail
I'd take Ocelot as picking Kefka never seems to payoff ¬_¬
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:06:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, I knew Kefka was going to suck, but I was thinking low 30's, not mid 20's. If he gets a bad 5m update he could do worse than Nook!
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/7/2007 2:06:43 PM | message detail
Ring the bell, ref. This is getting brutal.

2k vote swing in 3 hours. Three hours.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/7/2007 2:06:54 PM | message detail
Holy Hell. Fenix just doubled Kefka over the entire last hour. So much for me doubting the comeback based on the morning vote.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 2:07:05 PM | message detail
I know it was an exaggeration, but it was unnecessary.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/7/2007 2:07:37 PM | message detail
Fastest vote swing we've ever seen?
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Xuxon | Posted 9/7/2007 2:08:05 PM | message detail
Er. Not doubled. 50% more votes. You know what I mean.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 2:09:09 PM | message detail
Fun fact: every character not named kefka is currently rising in percentage.
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Tai | Posted 9/7/2007 2:09:38 PM | message detail
Kefka makes brackets cry.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 2:09:42 PM | message detail
I'd take Kefka > Ocelot regardless for the same reason Frog beat Axel the other day.

...Remind me what reason that was.

Speaking of Kefka and Frog comparisons: Who wins the day vote if these two have a match?

I'd almost have to say Frog at this point. This is downright pathetic. However, you have to remember that it's easier for Kefka to fall because he's at around 33-35% while Frog was only around 18-21% at the time. Still, this is bad.

Now, if Jill advances next round, it'll be fun to see what Marcus does to her. The RE day vote (sans Leon) can almost give the FFVI/CT day vote a run for its money.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:10:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, I knew Kefka was going to suck, but I was thinking low 30's, not mid 20's.

Eh, I should have seen it, or at least gotten more of a threatening vibe from Fenix. I've been a believer that the new consoles and upped votals would change our perceived power rankings, especially for older characters, but I didn't figure they'd be getting boned by brand new Xbox characters. I'm just glad I took Vincent over Crono and that Magus's path is guaranteed.

If he gets a bad 5m update he could do worse than Nook!

I know have something to root for!
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Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:10:37 PM | message detail
Kefka makes brackets cry.


Which is funny seeing Zelos hasn't gotten a triple digit update in ages.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/7/2007 2:11:24 PM | message detail
Kefka at 14:06 - Leading by 618
Kefka at 17:06 - Losing by 1453

3 hour swing: 2071
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/7/2007 2:13:51 PM | message detail
. The RE day vote (sans Leon)

If RE's strongest character isn't included in its day vote then *wait for it* RE doesn't have a day vote!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 2:15:17 PM | message detail
Well, I'm saying that Leon is the only RE character that has been shown to have any semblance of a day vote. And there's a good reason for that, what with RE4's success on GameCube and Wii.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/7/2007 2:15:56 PM | message detail
...Remind me what reason that was.

If the match got close, rallying/potential cheating would come to Kefka's rescue much like it did for him before against Vercetti and Frog against Axel.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 2:15:59 PM | message detail
Speaking of Kefka and Frog comparisons: Who wins the day vote if these two have a match?

Neither "wins" it. I'd say they'd stay pretty consistant throughout the entire day, having such similar trends and all. "Winning" the day vote happens when there's enough disparity between two character's trends that one gains more during the day than any other time.

TuRtLe
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/7/2007 2:16:23 PM | message detail
How is Leon's day vote?
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/7/2007 2:16:29 PM | message detail
So, my Oracle looks to be off by almost 10%. >_>
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