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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 468

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2007 1:29:48 AM | message detail
Lettuce Kefka pwns.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php



~*ST*~
Gaddswell | Posted 9/7/2007 1:30:51 AM | message detail
first
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Finally a damn bracket!
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 1:31:54 AM | message detail
Tag.
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard
NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0)
TimJab | Posted 9/7/2007 1:49:10 AM | message detail
obligatory "too early" post
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alt.8: http://alt8.proboards56.com
Just call me TJ
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 8:42:00 AM | message detail
OMFG TOO EARLY
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
voltch | Posted 9/7/2007 8:42:52 AM | message detail
SO LATE?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 8:43:24 AM | message detail
too early

The other topic has like twenty minutes left until it fills up, wtf man. you need to reaccess your life if making topics this early is something you do loloolllllolrofl
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TexasAggie | Posted 9/7/2007 8:44:37 AM | message detail
Ganon>Sonic
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/7/2007 8:45:34 AM | message detail
Tidus > Serge > Pikachu IMHO!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:08:32 AM | message detail
That was quite the 500 post, if I do say so myself.
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voltch | Posted 9/7/2007 9:08:45 AM | message detail
fenix approaching the 700 mark.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:08:54 AM | message detail
Time | Kefka . . | Fenix . . | Nook . . | Zelos
01:00 | 34.69% | 33.33% | 18.94% | 13.04%
02:00 | 37.44% | 34.06% | 16.49% | 12.01%
03:00 | 37.67% | 34.18% | 16.15% | 12.00%
04:00 | 37.45% | 33.30% | 17.69% | 11.56%
05:00 | 37.80% | 32.61% | 16.82% | 12.77%
06:00 | 36.79% | 34.34% | 16.94% | 11.93%
07:00 | 32.25% | 33.54% | 20.53% | 13.69%
08:00 | 32.98% | 32.85% | 21.41% | 12.75%
09:00 | 35.14% | 34.67% | 17.55% | 12.64%
10:00 | 35.76% | 34.52% | 17.28% | 12.44%
11:00 | 34.77% | 36.65% | 16.12% | 12.47%
12:00 | 34.89% | 35.92% | 16.80% | 12.39%

I'm still confused. As a rule, characters that do well now do not do well once school lets out.

I'm pretty confident that Nook is going to do very well during the afterschool vote (20-22%) and that Kefka's going to suck (31-33%). Right now, it looks like Zelos is going to benefit (12-14%), and Marcus is going to decrease (32-34%). The tradeoff between Zelos and Marcus is what I'm most unsure of.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:09:17 AM | message detail
So... can we stick a fork in Kefka now?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:09:22 AM | message detail
Uhhh, that is to say I'm confident enough that Fenix will take second that Jill/Ocelot worries me much more.

Oh, well then, very NOT the same.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:09:51 AM | message detail
I'd rather have Tifa in this than Aeris any time. At least Tifa's matches actually get people talking. Aeris just...underperforms it seems...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:10:51 AM | message detail
Wow..Nook really brought it in hard during the morning vote...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:10:58 AM | message detail
Like I said earlier, I cannot fathom Fenix being bad with the afterschool vote. You have to remember, it isn't just children that get out at 3pm, it's all the highschool aged kids too. And for those pointing to Gears' rating, I challenge you to go on XBL and enter a match without at least one cocky little kid talking smack.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:11:01 AM | message detail
I still say the best female party member in ff7 was yuffie.

Yes, aeris and tifa suck that badly.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/7/2007 9:11:59 AM | message detail
Gears being M rated is irrelevant, since Splinter Cell/Halo/Ninja Gaiden are all M rated to.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:13:09 AM | message detail
Yuffie? At least Tifa had some depth to her. She actually had a somewhat likable personality compared to 95% of the modern FF females. The only one I can think of thats better than Tifa is Freya, but she gets brought down by the fact that she's a giant freaking rat.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:13:33 AM | message detail
If Fenix were to NOT win the afterschool vote handily, I'd be severely surprised.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:13:46 AM | message detail
I thought Halo was rated Teen

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
voltch | Posted 9/7/2007 9:13:59 AM | message detail
i wonder how barrett fails year in year out to enter the contest.
he's the second playable character he's even your boss for a while and his personality is decent.
at first sight i'd have said the top three FFVII playable characters are Cloud/tifa/barrett but somehow vincent is the one to watch out for.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/7/2007 9:14:03 AM | message detail
Fenix is slowly cutting into the lead...if the after-school vote benefits him at all, he's most likely got this. The trends are a touch confusing for him though...I'll wait and see what happens.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:14:08 AM | message detail
XD @ anyone who thinks esrb ratings actually stop anyone below the recommended age from playing a game.

That's the same level of naivety as thinking nobody watches porn until they're 18.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:14:14 AM | message detail
I don't care about people's age, that's nonsensical reasoning that rarely works. I care about what the trends say. And they point to Fenix doing poorly with the afterschool vote, which, admittedly, is a very odd conclusion.

I'd say that perhaps the afterschool vote is just starting early for whatever reason, but Nook isn't going up - in fact, he's still doing as poorly as he did during the night. So it's not that, it's Marcus doing well during night character time.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 9:14:34 AM | message detail
I agree with BT, Marcus should be good in the day...but that's not even the point. Kefka's day vote is as bad as drinking like 100 Vomit Coolers one after the other or something
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:16:18 AM | message detail
i wonder how barrett fails year in year out to enter the contest.
he's the second playable character he's even your boss for a while and his personality is decent.


lol RacistFAQs
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2007 9:16:48 AM | message detail
And they point to Fenix doing poorly with the afterschool vote, which, admittedly, is a very odd conclusion.

Somebody last year (who was that?) was saying that the trends pointed to Peach (vs. Jill) and Yoshi (vs. Dante) having equal day-votes to DONKEY KONG. Look how that turned out. I'm going with my instinct, which SCREAMS that Fenix will dominate.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 9:17:16 AM | message detail
Right now I hope Kefka can hold on to a barely noticeable lead to win this thing, but I really doubt it. Marcus looks like he's primed to pounce. Jill is going to beat Ocelot next round, and I feel great about Marcus' chances against in Cloud/Kefka/Jill. He's pretty much guaranteed to do bette than Kefka, and I don't think as highly of Jill as most of you I guess. Yet, I still think she's gonna give it to Ocelot. Hard. I'd take her in a 1v1 against Kefka probably, but not to go 55-45 like the stats indicate. It's going to be close as hell, and I knew that when I took Cloud > Marcus, and I still do.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:17:22 AM | message detail
At least Tifa had some depth to her.

No.

She actually had a somewhat likable personality compared to 95% of the modern FF females.

Having 5% of ff females above you in personality is pretty bad.

The only one I can think of thats better than Tifa is Freya, but she gets brought down by the fact that she's a giant freaking rat.

At least her popularity isn't based entirely on her bra size (which is sad when you're talking about a game as graphically crappy as ffvii).
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:17:43 AM | message detail
Harr, before the match I figured Fenix would be a solid character over the entire course of the day, with no particular best time so to speak. Seems as though this is coming true, with last night just being a result of Kefka's spectacular night vote.

Though I can't really explain why Fenix is making gains now of all times. Maybe Frog wasn't good with the during-school vote so much as Axel was just utter crap with it.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Osfan | Posted 9/7/2007 9:18:35 AM | message detail
She actually had a somewhat likable personality compared to 95% of the modern FF females.

Oh I get it now the other 5% must be Rydia and Yuna right?
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"I'll do it with my magic!" - Tellah FF4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:19:40 AM | message detail
Actually, as much as I hated FFX, I have to give Yuna credit for being a great character.

If only she didn't have such horrible voice acting/taste in men

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/7/2007 9:19:48 AM | message detail
Somebody last year (who was that?) was saying that the trends pointed to Peach (vs. Jill) and Yoshi (vs. Dante) having equal day-votes to DONKEY KONG

That's not even close to being the same thing. That was just someone saying "well, maybe Peach's vote patterns will be like DK since they're both the same kind of Nintendo characters lol"

And ironically, both of those matches had the same trend that RPGuy96 is trying to point out. In that the character that improved with the morning and fell after it left did better after-school.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:21:20 AM | message detail
Somebody last year (who was that?) was saying that the trends pointed to Peach (vs. Jill) and Yoshi (vs. Dante) having equal day-votes to DONKEY KONG. Look how that turned out. I'm going with my instinct, which SCREAMS that Fenix will dominate.

Both Peach/Jill and Yoshi/Dante followed trends to a T - the Nintendo character did well during the Power Hour, poorly in the night, strong in the morning, weak during school, very strong after school, and weak in the evening. Exactly what one would expect from a day character - and pretty much the opposite of what Marcus is doing.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
voltch | Posted 9/7/2007 9:21:28 AM | message detail
does anyone really think there was a cap on characters per game?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:21:51 AM | message detail
The Contest Stats and Discussion topic being turned into an argument about Final Fantasy female character depth?

It must be contest season. =P
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:21:58 AM | message detail
The only problem with that, is that aside from the usual hiccup in the 8am-10am block (kiddies waking up for school if you will) the character who did good at night almost always continued doing good through the morning until the after school vote hit.

We saw this with Claire, Jill and Frog.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:22:56 AM | message detail
Oh I get it now the other 5% must be Rydia and Yuna right?

Rydia = modern ff? >_>

She's awesome enough as character to count anyways I guess.
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Osfan | Posted 9/7/2007 9:23:14 AM | message detail
I have to say this whole Kefkas day vote being the biggest joke ever thing is definitly overrated. I mean the guy has been steady throughout giving 150 per update. Fenix is jumping causing the damage. Granted it isn't as good as the night vote but come on Frog was getting 100 by this time. Unless Kefka drops off to like 100 with the afterschool with Fenix getting 200 then I can't see the travisty holding water hes been steady cept when we know he's good... or not crap...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" - Tellah FF4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:23:25 AM | message detail
I just realized something. Depending on what Fenix does with the afterschool vote today, looking at next round he's guarenteed to be in a match with 3 characters that almost always do better at night. Could we see a good sized vote swing there?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:24:06 AM | message detail
Kefka is so bad with the day vote, he's probably just falling flat on his face at the very sign of it coming in a few hours or something. >_>
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:24:13 AM | message detail
This isn't the day vote yet though. Day vote doesn't truly start until 3pm EST on weekdays.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/7/2007 9:24:17 AM | message detail
Regardless... right now Marcus is doing better than Kefka, even if it's still considered to be the night characters time. Even if he doesn't go off on a rampage when afterschool hits, I'm still confident he's going to continue to decrease the lead over friggin' Kefka.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:24:40 AM | message detail
We saw this with Claire, Jill and Frog.

Uh, no, not at all. Go look at the updater yourself - Frog lost 300 votes and nearly hit his afterschool percentage during the morning vote. Same with Claire and Jill.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:25:19 AM | message detail
There might be a significant vote swing, but I expect sff to keep kefka in last the enitre match... maybe.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:25:44 AM | message detail
The only problem with that, is that aside from the usual hiccup in the 8am-10am block (kiddies waking up for school if you will) the character who did good at night almost always continued doing good through the morning until the after school vote hit.

We saw this with Claire, Jill and Frog.


This is true. Claire SMASHED Kairi at this time period.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Osfan | Posted 9/7/2007 9:25:59 AM | message detail
IV is being remade for the DS I say start the rallies now I mean seriously I have never met anyone to like Cecil and he has made it in one of these things. Why is Rydia a character loved by all (see the number of contests shes won on the boards) never made it? Does anyone think she can make it with a solid rally?
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"I'll do it with my magic!" - Tellah FF4
Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:26:01 AM | message detail
I just realized something. Depending on what Fenix does with the afterschool vote today, looking at next round he's guarenteed to be in a match with 3 characters that almost always do better at night. Could we see a good sized vote swing there?


...Not if its Cloud in there...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
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