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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 467

voltch | Posted 9/6/2007 11:09:24 PM | message detail
this time the board's assumption on fenix seems more accurate than with midna.
however we still must wait till the end of the match to confirm this.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:09:43 PM | message detail
You guys are going to be disappointed when Marcus can barely scratch Kefka's barrier >_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ejm5446 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:11:54 PM | message detail
Kefka only needs 35% of the day vote to keep first. Shouldn't be too hard, right?
Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:12:36 PM | message detail
You'd be surprised at Kefka's ability to bomb matches.
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TimJab | Posted 9/6/2007 11:12:48 PM | message detail
Unless Marcus gets 65% of the day vote.
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Starion | Posted 9/6/2007 11:13:23 PM | message detail
Not with Tom Nook there. He's a greedy racoon.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
DDPadawan | Posted 9/6/2007 11:16:13 PM | message detail
35% doesn't necessarily mean Kefka will win if, like TJ said, Marcus gets the other 65%. Obviously, 50% of the day vote guarantees Kefka wins, so do percentages a little bit less than that, but honestly he could win with any percentage of the vote, it depends on how many votes are cast and who they're for. I think he'll be safe with 40-45% of the day vote, anything lower than that and its a toss-up.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 11:16:25 PM | message detail
About what I expected, though I'm feeling a Marcus win here unless Kefka can push better than this.

...and there's no way in hell Marcus should be considered the favorite next round. Even putting the fact that we haven't seen his extra competitor-to-be in action next round, he is currently losing to Kefka. That's not "impressive" in the slightest (especially considering their competition is an absolute joke). If he was crushing Kefka it'd be one thing, but Jill/Ocelot have legitimate strength under their belt - and Jill at least would toast Kefka. Peach isn't the strongest character in the world, but give Jill *some* credit here.
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delicious cats
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:17:00 PM | message detail
Axel impressing here (especially with the day vote) go to show us that Mega Man's matches last year were likely the result of surprising opponents rather than any drop on the blue bomber's part. Frog disappointing points to a decrease in Chrono Trigger's popularity relative to the high votals since 2k5 (when Crono lost handily to Mario). This helps show that Sonic did in fact stay static last year and that Sonic/Snake wasn't a fluke afterall. Of course this leaves Sora = Auron and Zero < Sub-Zero as big problems, but I believe those can be chalked up to Sora and Luigi overperforming due to high seeds like Yuna, 2k5 Kirby and 2k5 Dante did. But we'll find out more about that as the contest goes on.

Pulled from my analysis topic.

I know I posted something similar, but worded better in one of the many stats topics yesterday, but I can't seem to find it.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 11:17:53 PM | message detail
And Kefka getting 45% of the day vote? He's not getting close to that NOW. He's gonna bomb, like he always does. Marcus simply has to capitalize and he'll have 1st place locked up.
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delicious cats
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greatone10 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:18:39 PM | message detail
All Marcus needs to be is freaking Ryu Hayabusa to capitalize.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:18:45 PM | message detail
That's why I said that I'm waiting to see what Fenix does with the day vote before calling anything next match. Though even if he loses here, it isn't outside the realm of possibility for him to upset Jill/Ocelot, especially with Cloud in there, and that fishy PS1 SFF possibly rearing its ugly head.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:20:08 PM | message detail
You'd be surprised at Kefka's ability to bomb matches.

Oh no, Kefka/Vercetti will always remain etched in my head. What an epic match that was. You guys can downplay it all you want due to the insane stuffing, but it's still one of my favorites.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:22:22 PM | message detail
The point is, didn't Kefka have 60% at one point in that match?

He shouldn't have needed stuffing.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 11:22:44 PM | message detail
And dear lord, just looking at Kefka's lettuce right there on the front page in all its "glory" just throws into perspective how awful it really is. That... THING is not going to do anything with the day vote. I'm almost shocked that he's extending his lead as it is.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:23:02 PM | message detail
that's my point here

>_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:23:30 PM | message detail
I'm telling you, he's got the vegans on his side <_<
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
TimJab | Posted 9/6/2007 11:25:34 PM | message detail
Ocelot has strength? Didn't he lose to Pac-Man?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 11:27:37 PM | message detail
Pac-Man isn't weak. Remember, he went 50/50 with Kefka and I'd peg him stronger now. Not to mention he had a MASSIVE picture advantage against Ocelot (and against Kefka, sure, but who doesn't?).
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/6/2007 11:28:36 PM | message detail
Kefka's only getting 5-6 vote wins most of these updates. I don't see how he can possibly win this unless he ramps up big time soon.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 11:30:14 PM | message detail
I hate Kefka/Vercetti as a match. It was the last match that had the automatic updater, and I freaking loved that thing. =(
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Keno316 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:30:36 PM | message detail
Ahhh...the downplaying of Crono's chances...always contest season...
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:30:37 PM | message detail
Pac-Man isn't weak. Remember, he went 50/50 with Kefka and I'd peg him stronger now. Not to mention he had a MASSIVE picture advantage against Ocelot (and against Kefka, sure, but who doesn't?).

how bout Wesker? :D
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
voltch | Posted 9/6/2007 11:32:35 PM | message detail
crap i didn't know who toad was until i saw his match pic.
now i'm really worried about having Bowser>ryu.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 11:33:36 PM | message detail
I stand corrected. Yes, the one character that didn't have a picture advantage against Kefka is the guy he got 70% on. Which brings us to the next point - Wesker is pitiful.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:35:13 PM | message detail
That's the exact reason I decided to put Lara in second place. Although they are both pretty worthless.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/6/2007 11:35:18 PM | message detail
I dunno, I think Kefka is doing pretty well right now......compared to the crap Kefka usually brings to the table. For how long though....that's the kicker in all this....
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:36:15 PM | message detail
Wesker was the guy who couldn't break 60% on Luca Blight. Of course he fails at these contests. Still an awesome villain though.
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Starion | Posted 9/6/2007 11:37:31 PM | message detail
We'll see if Wesker really is that bad in a few weeks. Fourth place behind Daxter would cinch it.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:38:30 PM | message detail
Uhhh, Fenix is stalling at Kefka's best time. Kefka better hope he can pull a Frog and walk away with the morning/lunch vote. I'd actually expect this to follow Axel/Frog pretty closely in terms of trends.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:39:06 PM | message detail
Wesker let a ToS character beat him.

There is nothing to excuse that.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/6/2007 11:40:49 PM | message detail
Weker was up against Angel Kefka. I don't care what anyone says, I think that accounted for 5% or more that Kefka would get normally.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
Lopen | Posted 9/6/2007 11:42:16 PM | message detail
crap i didn't know who toad was until i saw his match pic.

XD, what? I can't believe this! How can this be?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
transience | Posted 9/6/2007 11:42:40 PM | message detail
*sig*
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:42:53 PM | message detail
I'm gonna LMFAO if Daxter beats Wesker. Seriously. It'll be the most hilarious thing ever.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Lopen | Posted 9/6/2007 11:45:08 PM | message detail
Ah, was intended to make me XD then.

Good job, sir!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:45:34 PM | message detail
If Daxter beats Wesker, I will quit the Internet in disgust.

And this coming from someone who has nothing against Daxter.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/6/2007 11:46:05 PM | message detail
Frog/Toad would be a funny match.
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Finally a damn bracket!
transience | Posted 9/6/2007 11:47:18 PM | message detail
augh bad update is bad
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:47:47 PM | message detail
20 vote cut after 2 stalls

At Kefka's best time to boot.

lol kefka

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:48:10 PM | message detail
Best update of the night!
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/6/2007 11:49:34 PM | message detail
Imagine if Marcus started a comeback now... lol Kefka.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
Five Blows | Posted 9/6/2007 11:49:38 PM | message detail
I hope I get half of them right. I hardly knew most of the them

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QD9P0ibfvk
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:51:48 PM | message detail
...damn it, Kefka.
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:52:02 PM | message detail
Kefka, we need more of those updates, plzkthx.
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
Gaddswell | Posted 9/6/2007 11:53:32 PM | message detail
Both the last two updates were Marcus spiking and dropping off. It's not really Kefka doing much here.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:58:07 PM | message detail
Tom Nook... isn't doing THAT good. His recent games have merely moved him from low fodder to mid-fodder... Zelos, however, is a complete turd. Poor ToS fans. :/

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 11:59:15 PM | message detail
it's gonna be epic if kefka actually wins the day vote

that'd be such a mind ****
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 12:03:54 AM | message detail
If Kefka gets the day vote, I'll eat my hat.

I still have it from Frog's successful comeback.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ejm5446 | Posted 9/7/2007 12:09:21 AM | message detail
Overall Standings - Total Votes

70,743 Mega Man
70,546 Samus Aran
55,989 Yoshi
47,724 Scorpion
43,939 Knuckles the Echidna
42,830 Rikku
32,182 Midna
27,474 Kratos Aurion
25,822 KOS-MOS
25,410 Frog
25,282 Axel
22,874 Agent 47
21,950 Arthas Menethil
21,603 Diablo
15,075 Sarah Kerrigan
15,064 Vaan

Overall Standings - PCT

51.75% Samus Aran
50.49% Mega Man
36.64% Scorpion
35.48% Yoshi
27.84% Knuckles the Echidna
27.14% Rikku
24.71% Midna
21.09% Kratos Aurion
18.64% Frog
18.55% Axel
18.43% KOS-MOS
17.56% Agent 47
15.67% Arthas Menethil
15.42% Diablo
11.06% Sarah Kerrigan
9.54% Vaan
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