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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 467

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:33:55 PM | message detail
I'd just like to announce that all this "Kefka's day vote sucks!" nonsense...yeah, we don't quite know much about Mr. Fenix's day vote either though. Sure it makes sense that he could have more power, but hell...we've seen stranger things happen in these contests.
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:34:43 PM | message detail
At the expense of Nook? Really?

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:35:13 PM | message detail
But Kefka really does have one of the worst day votes in contest history. Marcus has to be *really* bad with it for Kefka to hold on. The match depends on how big his lead gets before morning.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:35:43 PM | message detail
Nook went from 19% to 18.3% in the last half hour. That's probably just the Power Hour wearing off, but why would that go to Fenix?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:35:53 PM | message detail
I don't think Fenix has to be anything special to win the day vote against Kefka

And judging from my limited time playing GeoW on XBL, I'd say more than a fair share of Gears players are school-aged children, or at least high-school kids. That bodes well for a strong after-school push.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
wavedash101 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:36:01 PM | message detail
Seeing as how his game appeals to the same fanbase as Halo, its likely he will act like a smaller scale version of Chief, but with less anti votes

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:36:15 PM | message detail
I think we've been spoiled. This is a close match but we don't seem to care about it
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2007 10:37:04 PM | message detail
I was wrong.
;_;
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:38:12 PM | message detail
I care about this match. I'm quite curious to see if Kefka is really going to drop the ball here or not. Matter of fact, I've always been big fans of Kefka matches. He's like a poor man's Frog in these contests.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:38:24 PM | message detail
The thing about Fenix though, is that his game is alot more "mature" than Halo, but is still played by teenagers and older schoolkids. Which is probably why he's holding up so well against Kefka as opposed to say, Axel.

My thoughts are that he'll be similar to Axel, but much less polarized. Meaning he should have a solid day vote, but won't give up nearly as much as Axel did overnight.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:39:07 PM | message detail
The thing is Kefka always loses in close matches kind of like DK. who is a bigger choke artist, DK or Kefka?
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/6/2007 10:39:29 PM | message detail
That's true. There doesn't seem to be much excitement here, even with the small 300 vote gap. Maybe it's because both are guaranteed to advance anyways.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/6/2007 10:39:29 PM | message detail
The thing about Fenix though, is that his game is alot more "mature" than Halo

...really?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:40:56 PM | message detail
Seeing Nook tailspin like this is actually a decent sign (minus my fanboyism, of course). Maybe he'll clean up a chunk of the day vote and allow Kefka some opportunity to keep Marcus back. Doubt it, but you never know.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2007 10:41:54 PM | message detail
The strange thing here is, Kratos was doing MUCH better than Zelos at this time.

RPG SFF?
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
transience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:41:56 PM | message detail
well, in the last 30 minutes, Kefka's gained 164 votes. if he goes at 300+ votes per hour, he'll be up a good 1700 by morning. of course, votes are going to drop off pretty soon, so assuming he stays at that speed, I'd expect a 1200 vote lead or so? that's pretty random guesswork, but it could be what we're looking at.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:42:05 PM | message detail
That's a really good point YoAriel. Marcus might be hindered because of Nook.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:43:25 PM | message detail
You guys just wait and see. Kefka will keep himself in balance, even with his lame ass day vote.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:44:58 PM | message detail
That's sorta what I'm concluding, yo. Nook's probably going to have a decent day vote, and ToS isn't horrible with it (contrary to my expectations). With Fenix acting like a night character here, he might not be able to make a big drive during the day.

But, with Kefka around, there's going to be plenty of percentage to go around come 3 PM. And it just seems weird that an XBox character would not dominate Old Square during the day - but, hey, Castlevania/Halo's trends surprised even me (a rather vocal CV supporter).

I'm just a bit weirded out and pretty tired at the moment, please forgive my rambling.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 10:45:36 PM | message detail
lol kiddies hate lettuce
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Nobody9090 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:45:36 PM | message detail
Lol, and Nook's lead continues to grow on Zelos. Well, I'm glad I picked Jak over Lloyd.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:47:09 PM | message detail
I'm glad I have HK-47.
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Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna.
Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:48:26 PM | message detail
That's a really good point YoAriel. Marcus might be hindered because of Nook.

After post MP3 Samus freaking Aran did very little to hinder a supporting Kingdom Hearts character's day vote, I've kind of lost faith in the whole "strong character altering voting trends for the weaker dudes" thing. Then again, I don't want Nook to do anything.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Nobody9090 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:48:31 PM | message detail
With HK-47 it was one of those, "Who the hell is that!? I don't know... Better not pick it." moments for me.

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:49:21 PM | message detail
I don't really recall Samus having a great day vote, which is an anomaly among her Nintendo brethren.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:50:41 PM | message detail
With HK-47 it was one of those, "Who the hell is that!? I don't know... Better not pick it." moments for me

some reasoning that was.
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Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna.
Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:51:17 PM | message detail
Samus lost the day vote to Ganondorf. Ganondorf, who did nothing against Vincent.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:51:33 PM | message detail
But one would thing the recency of MP3 would give her that bit of juice needed to win over the kiddies.

Anyways, I'm not all that worried about Marcus here. Common sense dictates that he'll have at the very least, enough of a day vote to put the fear into Kefka. This really all depends on what he does (if anything) with the 8am-3pm block. Like I said, I have reason to think he'll hold up better than Axel did.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:52:13 PM | message detail
Who the hell is HK-47?! What?! Come on, he's the most kickass character from one of the best games of the last generation! I'll take him over some overrated ToS character any day, even if it is the lead! And Jak I didn't even consider to do much damage.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:52:46 PM | message detail
After post MP3 Samus freaking Aran did very little to hinder a supporting Kingdom Hearts character's day vote, I've kind of lost faith in the whole "strong character altering voting trends for the weaker dudes" thing. Then again, I don't want Nook to do anything.

That's because Kerrigan was there as well as Frog to kindly donate percentage to Axel and Samus, who both improved markedly. Kefka's obviously going to suck come daytime, but if Nook and Zelos capitalize on that what's left for Fenix? Especially with him splitting the benefit of the night with Kefka right now, at the expense of Nook and Zelos. Characters that do well now rarely do well in the afterschool period.

But that leads to such a weird conclusion I'm not sure.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2007 10:52:58 PM | message detail
Zelos can still come back! ;_;

This is not how you treat the greatest character ever made, GameFAQs.

I blame
1. Kefka
2. Pink
3. Nook

;_; The worst part is how responsible I was for getting him in there. Now I know how Zen feels with Phoenix.
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AIR CONDITIONER.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:53:31 PM | message detail
I took Jak to win that one because I feel as though KotOR is a bit outdated now. It's been.... what? 2.5 - 3 years since KotOR 2 came out? Jak has had at least a couple of games in that timeframe, and I can definitely see the higher votals helping him out more than HK.

I want to see that match if only because Zero will easily have over 50%.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:53:42 PM | message detail
*RKOs Lightning Strikes*
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:54:30 PM | message detail
I want to see that match if only because Zero will easily have over 50%.

Doubt it.

BT you've actually been pretty decent and all the last few days, but I still can't wait to see what you have to say when Zero is proven to be a weakling. =P
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:55:05 PM | message detail
Just like Mega Man was proven to be a weakling last year?

o wate

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:55:40 PM | message detail
...He was.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:55:59 PM | message detail
....wasn't... he?
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:56:17 PM | message detail
Do I need to post my longwinded rant again?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2007 10:56:31 PM | message detail
*Kicks ExTha in the groin*

Don't do that.

You know another thing that sucks? Nook being third. Nook will have a good day-vote, but that's also Zelos's biggest chance to come back.

Why couldn't Nook be second?
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:56:37 PM | message detail
having recent games doesn't make you everybody's favorite character just yet. I think Jak just suffers the "I don't have a hardcore fanbase" stuff. we'll see.
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Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna.
Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:56:51 PM | message detail
OK, go ahead BT, i can't remember your reasons from your last year.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:56:55 PM | message detail
You save your longwinded rants? >.>

Sure. Post it. I haven't gotten a chance to read it yet, apparently.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:57:41 PM | message detail
Really that one was a total crapshoot. None of them really have reliable numbers to go by, so I went with the intangibles and my gut.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
greatone10 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:00:27 PM | message detail
So, who wins between Frog/DK/Kefka/Master Chief, or does that cause what Gordon Freeman did not do, a universe implosion?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 11:01:17 PM | message detail
MC > DK or Frog.
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Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna.
Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12
Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:02:21 PM | message detail
Master Chief > Donkey Kong for me.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/6/2007 11:05:01 PM | message detail
It'll be interesting to see if Kefka flops during the day. Right now, he's got an okay pace going in his vote lead. Not great.....but okay...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 11:08:52 PM | message detail
Frog > MC by 6 votes

Kefka and DK are always chokers, while Frog and MC seems to choke on purpose, just to mess with our heads.

And ExTha, I can't find the extended version I posted sometime yesterday. I'll check again, but I might have to give the short version.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
greatone10 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:08:57 PM | message detail
Kefka has a good 500 vote advantage right now, but I won't trust him until he hits a 2000 vote lead, just in case Marcus is just like MC (and Ryu Hayabusa, remember that?).


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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 11:09:17 PM | message detail
Characters who always have close matches


Frog
DK
Master Chief
Jill
Tommy Vercetti
Pac-Man
Magus
Crono
Mario


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