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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 467

transience | Posted 9/6/2007 9:54:58 PM | message detail
we're gonna be talking about Frog, Pikachu and Zero for the next month straight, aren't we?

aw yeah
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:00 PM | message detail
What do you mean, for Marcus to slip by? There's a very real chance that Marcus is stronger than both Jill and Ocelot in a 1v1, they aren't exactly pillars of strength. Marcus is doing damn well for himself here.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Gaddswell | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:06 PM | message detail
Is everyone forgetting Kerrigan?
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Finally a damn bracket!
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:36 PM | message detail
Jill wasn't in RE4 right? Which means all she has outside of her PS1 games are the REmakes on the cube which supposedly didn't sell that great?

Granted, this would be a much better point if she was wearing her RE3 outfit, but I still think of Jill when I see "TJF."

Boobs & Guns FT2!
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:41 PM | message detail
ZELOS WENT UP. ToS REDEEMED!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kefka/Marcus/Tom/Zelos - Bracket: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Zelos (14/16)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:41 PM | message detail
I hope so.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
CountCrazy007 | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:51 PM | message detail
Yes. We are.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 9:55:55 PM | message detail
I don't think Vaan would be nearly as pathetic in a 1 on 1 match with no Rikku stealing his votes. He's basically a weaker neo-Tidus, both in appearance and contest strength. He'll hold up decently against regular opponents, but folds like an umbrella when put against other Square characters.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 9:56:04 PM | message detail
Jill and Ocelot are both PS1 characters

What? I thought Ocelot's popularity came mainly from MGS2, 3 and 4.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 9:56:51 PM | message detail
Don't believe tranny's lies! BT's bracket lives!

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Starion | Posted 9/6/2007 9:57:18 PM | message detail
Which means all she has outside of her PS1 games are the REmakes on the cube which supposedly didn't sell that great?


So a remake of the first RE selling 1.25 million on the 3rd place Gamecube console isn't great?
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
transience | Posted 9/6/2007 9:57:47 PM | message detail
TOM NOOK IS BACK ABOVE 19%
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 9:57:58 PM | message detail
Ocelot lost to Pac-Man. Jill lost to Peach and Ryu H.

I'd take those two over Ocelot anytime.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 9:58:04 PM | message detail
I think it's safe to say that a good chunk of Ocelot's voters started out with MGS on the PS1.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/6/2007 9:58:27 PM | message detail
What? I thought Ocelot's popularity came mainly from MGS2, 3 and 4.

I don't know enough about 4 to comment, but in MGS2 he spends half the game being controlled by his arm, and he looks completely different in MGS3.

Yes, I know, voters aren't that stupid...or are they?
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/6/2007 9:58:45 PM | message detail
I don't know why we're talking about her games like they're new and exciting or anything. She barely lost to Peach, and she hasn't had anything since then. It's as simple as that. She's going to be right around the same mark.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 9:59:14 PM | message detail
I thought someone here mentioned the REmakes selling poorly.

Or maybe they were taking about the Twin Snakes?

Either way, good news for my bracket.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/6/2007 9:59:57 PM | message detail
The best news for your bracket would be that someone else made it.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:00:46 PM | message detail
Is it just me, or has Kefka been at the same spot for 30 minutes?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 10:00:50 PM | message detail
I don't think Ocelot is a real threat to Marcus. Jill is, but I'm still pretty confident he's stronger than her. Cloud>Marcus is certainly what I'm expecting.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:01:23 PM | message detail
so I botched round 2 with Midna going to round 3

do I still have any chance what so ever?
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:01:29 PM | message detail
"REmakes" shouldn't be plural anyway. Only the first game was a REmake.

RE2, RE3, and RE:CVX were pure ports (poREts?) that were way overpriced.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Starion | Posted 9/6/2007 10:05:03 PM | message detail
do I still have any chance what so ever?

It depends. People not following the rules and increased unpredictability can help you (the uncertain part could also hurt you). I mean, I have been surprised by some of the match results.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:11:03 PM | message detail
I highly doubt 1 third match character is going to break anyone's bracket. You can't really afford many other mistakes though.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:12:30 PM | message detail
I'm not really worried about any of my other picks(Hell I've got Kefka > Marcus today and I'm not really worried about that)

I'm only really concerned about my really big upsets. Mainly Dante > Ganondorf.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:12:41 PM | message detail
Yeah.. that is another thing I'm curious about. What will it take for someone to really get knocked out of contention, bracket wise in this contest?
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:12:57 PM | message detail
Aside from having Mudkipz in the finals, I mean. >.>
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:15:24 PM | message detail
I don't think any singular thing will screw you over that badly (unless you screw up something in the final rounds, but for us the quarterfinals on are pretty much set in stone).

For me, it will either by my Zero pick or Master Chief tanking. But I have a lot of faith in the Chief, and if Zero pulls it off I can basically take first prize right then and there.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:16:57 PM | message detail
Yuna is gonna kick M Chief's sorry ass >_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:17:06 PM | message detail
So I can really not worry too much about things until I either see Leon Kennedy, Raiden, or Vincent Valentine failing me, then? Because those are my three "dark horses". I know. I didn't really do anything crazy this year.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:17:33 PM | message detail
Also, is it just me or is Kefka gaining now? I don't have any links to back that up or anything, but that's what it appears to be.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:17:47 PM | message detail
Yuna is gonna kick M Chief's sorry ass >_>

You know, before tonight I would've said this. But now I am extremely worried about the Chief being an absolute monster. @.@
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:18:27 PM | message detail
Are you saying this over ****ing Kefka/Marcus? Dude dude dude...Yuna and Kefka are completely different. So are Marcus and Chief, but still.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/6/2007 10:18:51 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure you can miss 1 or 2 2nd Round matches and still be in contention. That's just a guess, but judging on how many "perfects" we have (and how very many we have that are far FAR from it), I'd say that's a good guess.

Overall, if you can get out of Round 1 missing 10 points or fewer, I'd say you're in really good shape.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/6/2007 10:18:52 PM | message detail
Especially considering Kefka will still probably beat him out.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
captaincanadian | Posted 9/6/2007 10:19:14 PM | message detail
Also, is it just me or is Kefka gaining now? I don't have any links to back that up or anything, but that's what it appears to be.

Kekfa is gaining, but unless he starts putting more distance between himself and Marcus, the odds are likely against him when you consider the day vote.
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CaptcanadaA
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:22:12 PM | message detail
Master Chief could be peforming like last year Solid Snake. Everyone doubted Snake at the beginning of the contest last year however he went on to blow MM and Sonic away and validated that his new found power is no fluke.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:23:20 PM | message detail
Actually, if my theories on last year hold true, then Yuna was noticeably overrated by her 1-seed. Going by her 2k5 numbers, Master Chief does a number on her. Plus this year MC has alot more going for him, what with Halo 3 coming out less than 2 weeks after his first match. Even if he doesn't get first in Round 1, there's no way he doesn't get first in round 2.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:25:41 PM | message detail
Maybe Kefka does just suck in the Power Hour. It's still difficult if not impossible for him to win; he's probably just going to delay the crossing time to 5:00 or so rather than 3:30. But at least he has some life in him.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:25:49 PM | message detail
But yeah, star of this division is Tom Nook easily. Marcus doing this good was pretty much expected, even by Kefka > Fenix pickers, but noone thought Nook would beat out Zelos, let alone THIS BAD.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
wavedash101 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:26:16 PM | message detail
Jill does have RE:UC on the horizon, but I believe it comes out a bit too far into the holiday season

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transience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:26:49 PM | message detail
huh. well, the "night vote" usually starts at around 1:30, and Kefka's definitely doing something here. it's *possible* that the NPH was just the day vote there, and that they'll be going 50/50 come daytime (or something close to that). I wouldn't bet on it, but it's certainly a possibility that Kefka will build a lead and sit on it.

now that I've typed this, I expect Fenix to win an update
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 10:27:58 PM | message detail
Ugh. Really starting to kick myself for changing to Yuna > Chief.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 10:28:43 PM | message detail
Watch Kefka sails up and Tom Nook drops down in these next few hours! NPH clearly favours Tom Nook.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 10:29:03 PM | message detail
sshh ircman.
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Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna.
Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 10:29:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, Kefka should be able to build up at least a half-decent lead overnight. What happens during the morning-3pm time is a mystery to me though. If I were a betting man, I'd stake it on Kefka/Fenix going roughly even until the floodgates open at 3. Fenix at least has a lot more to the more "mature" voters that usually come out during that time than any KH character would be expected to.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:30:54 PM | message detail
The NPH usually but not always reflects the day vote trends, as there's two main exceptions. 1) CT characters do well with the NPH and suck in the day, and 2) Master Chief did *terrible* with the NPH and generally rocks during the day.

Both point to Kefka getting crushed.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
transience | Posted 9/6/2007 10:32:27 PM | message detail
yeah, I expect Kefka (and FF6) to follow CT's lead there. and all old Square, really.

but the thing is - we're guessing what Fenix is like in the daytime. we really have no idea. he's completely new.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:33:21 PM | message detail
Fenix generally improving since the poll started is downright odd, though. Obviously the board doesn't favour him, but the board vote really only lasts for the first five minutes. He's acting like a night character here at the expense of Nook and Zelos, which is completely counterintuitive.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Draco1214 | Posted 9/6/2007 10:33:55 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, if Kefka gains 40 votes an update, how big will his lead be before morning?
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
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