GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 466
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 3:26:18 PM | message detail |
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Ocelot's MGS3 form is by FAR his most beloved form, and where most of
the fanboyism for him comes from (and that matters even MORE in a poll
like this). Using somewhat empirical evidence, Ocelot with his MGS3
picture made Wily look as weak as Nemesis in the Villains Contest,
which most would have scoffed at prior. Not that Wily can't necessarily
be that weak, but... --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 3:27:05 PM | message detail |
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Also, it simply looks better than the ho-hum melting pictures MGS typically gets stuck with. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| ejm5446 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:27:09 PM | message detail |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KjNH2_QDVs ...Marcus is the snail |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 3:28:02 PM | message detail |
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lettuce Kefka: 23:00 | 18.76% | 19.57% | 49.40% | 12.28% 00:00 | 17.09% | 26.88% | 44.86% | 11.17% I looked more closely at this, because my first reaction was the same as your's - the Samus decrease implies that Frog just took her votes, and didn't cheat. The last hour of the match got 3903 votes. (the previous hour got 5218, so that is a point against cheating) The characters started the hour with Axel 25282, Frog 25410, Samus, 70546 Kerrigan 15075. If we assume the last hour "should" have gone the same as the previous hour, 10pm-11pm, with 3903 votes Frog should've ended with 25125 votes. He got 25410. Now some of that would be due to Frog naturally continuing trend momentum, so let's say he got 200 extra votes. If you just subtract 200 votes from Frog, the vote totals for the last hour become Axel 667, Frog 849, Samus 1751, Kerrigan 436. That works out to last hour percentages of: 00:00 | 18.01% | 22.93% | 47.29% | 11.77% So Samus is now much closer to where you'd expect her to be, if you assume Frog had 200 illegitimate/unnatural votes. If you make it 300 votes it rises to 48.6% for Samus. I don't think Samus got under 48% in any other hour than the last one. Frog winning makes me happy, but contrary to my first interpretation of Samus' low final hour %age, it actually very strongly indicates something was up. I wouldn't say this is as "Wow if you don't see this is cheating you're a monkey's uncle" clear-cut, absolute as Mario/Crono II. It is quite possible this was legit and about 300 votes were rallied were Frog. But if I had to bet, I'd say it wasn't. Ulti: And I still say Mario cheated to get that win. Even *with* the "rallying", Crono was winning after 24 hours. There was no reason to start that poll 20 minutes early or end it 7 minutes late. Mario didn't pull ahead until the 1 AM EST update, 20 minutes after the 24 mark had passed. The entire thing was and still is ridiculous, and I had Mario in my bracket that year. He had no business winning that thing. Wow, I had totally forgotten that the match was longer than 24 hours. That's so messed up. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:29:20 PM | message detail |
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I, for one, love MGS melty pics. --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 12/12; Oracle - 1st |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 3:30:16 PM | message detail |
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You also think Raiden > Snake GET OUT OF MY SIGHT :( --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 9/6/2007 3:30:37 PM | message detail |
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Uh, my fanboyism came from MGS2, and then it was just increased dramatically after MGS3. =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 3:32:19 PM | message detail |
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I do remember the almost taking Wily in that match, and never guessing Wily being on par with Nemesis. --- Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna. Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:32:39 PM | message detail |
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When was the last time Lettuce Kefka appeared? --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 3:34:20 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles match. --- Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna. Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:35:46 PM | message detail |
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*checks* Does Lettuce Kefka really affect him that much? --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:39:55 PM | message detail |
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Lettuce Kefka doesn't matter. He did decent on Knuckles, remember? --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 3:42:14 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, 2004 Knuckles... and he also almost lost to Pac-Man with it. It may be a psychological thing, but I feel better without it. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 3:42:18 PM | message detail |
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I always wondered how Knuckles jumped so much that year. must have been the votals. --- Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna. Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 3:42:48 PM | message detail |
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you could give Kefka a picture of a dead cow and he'd probably still come in second place. --- http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/6/2007 3:43:50 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't be surprised if Shadow upset Auron somehow. I'm not
saying it'll happen(like a 2% chance) but I do fear him considering we
haven't seen him since 2k4. If it were pre-KH2 Auron, this would be highly possible. But after Auron's KH2 boost and Knuckles's sorry performance Monday...it's not very likely. Fun Fact: I've voted for Shadow in every one of his matches, solely because of his awesome pics. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:45:27 PM | message detail |
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I think Shadow has no chance of the upset simply because of Shadow the Hedgehog. It's a candidate for Worst Game Ever. --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 3:46:15 PM | message detail |
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Pfft, Sonic Next-Gen puts ShtH to shame... ...in a manner of speaking. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:46:20 PM | message detail |
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Look at how well Rikku (Who likes rikku?) did even with Vaan in the match. Auron is going to kick ass. --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 3:46:51 PM | message detail |
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KH, I beat 1, struggled through 2, and got halfway through 3 before
saying "Wow what a steaming pile of crap". I mean, 3 wasn't even about
Snake, so why should I feel enticed to play it? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:47:02 PM | message detail |
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...Seriously? Because StH froze for me on the final level, and I was
overjoyed that I could stop playing it now. How could Sonic Next-Gen be
worse? --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/6/2007 3:48:21 PM | message detail |
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Whoa.... I was just working on my writeup and the site says Zelos is a dude. How can this be possible? Look at that match pic? People are actually taking that over Marcus Fenix? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:49:00 PM | message detail |
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Here is a picture of Kefka that is official art and is never used http://ffcompendium.com/art/6-kefka-a.jpg --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 3:49:03 PM | message detail |
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like I said - he's Kuja tier. :) Lightning Strikes said he had a more appealing design than Sheena. I said "wut" --- http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:49:09 PM | message detail |
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I'm starting to see why people dislike BT. --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| wavedash101 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:49:59 PM | message detail |
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Sonic Next defines what it means to fall from grace --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru] |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 3:50:56 PM | message detail |
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Regarding this trick people male/female vote thing. I don't think that
it would be hard technically to discount that at all. Voting info is
passed by POST variables, and you'd just have to do a referrer check to
see if it was some outside site (some browsers don't pass referrer, so
if it's blank you accept it too - but if it's explicitly some other
site, you discount it). This might already be the case, and if so those trick polls won't really work. Regarding the 500 views, if you look at various sites that have polls, the view/vote ratio is typically between 5:1 and 20:1, though it can go much higher. The more posts a topic as the higher you'd expect this ratio to be, as a lot more people would be reading multiple times. I'm guessing the topic in question had like no posts. However, if the poll itself wasn't on the site and the page was an external one (as seems to be the case here), the view/vote number number would probably be very high. I'm guessing this particular thing had little impact. I too am curious how creative will make stats for this thing. He's the math whiz, so it's on him. King Morgoth came up with a good and valid formula. If I made standings I'd probably use that. The real problem is that the winners will be in two different matches. Maybe the more recent one would be used, or there would be two sets of standings (probably the former). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/6/2007 3:51:01 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-05.jpg Lettuce is back! Marcus > Kefka confirmed. Seriously, Fenix got a good pic and Zelos...eh http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-06.jpg Old Ocelot whhhhoooaaa. Zolom is lol-worthy and Jill...eh http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-07.jpg No such thing as a bad Shadow pic still true! http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-08.jpg I like this one for some reason. Everyone looks pretty good here. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Agent 47/Kratos/Midna/Scorpion - Bracket: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Kratos (12/12) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:52:49 PM | message detail |
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That Mewtwo pic also makes me wary. It's like he's staring right at
you, saying "Don't even THINK of not voting for me or I explode your
brain" --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:57:02 PM | message detail |
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It looks like Scorpion beats Midna 60-40 in a 1vs1 match. Where does that put Midna in the stats? --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/6/2007 3:57:59 PM | message detail |
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I'm not even going to attempt to make stats out of this thing. --- Today: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna. Tomorrow: Kefka > Marcus Fenix - Vote: Kefka - Points: 12/12 |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 3:58:20 PM | message detail |
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Regarding pics: *Kefka shouldn't really be hurt in this format, but...why are we being subjected to this horror again? *Marcus should perform at his max strength here. I think he'll do well. He could flop but I think he'll do well here, and finish ahead of Kefka in the next round due so SFF (whether he'll finish ahead of Jill is another issue). *Tom Nook might actually do somewhat decent, he looks alright. (outside chance he'll finish ahead of Zelos?) *Zolom looks bad. This picture gives no reason to worry about Jill against Ocelot though. *Shadow looks great, he should get above 1/3 of the vote, but probably not enough to beat Auron. Pyramid Head is invisible, but no one was going to vote for him anyway. On Marcus, some people might say newcomer Midna flopped, so newcomer Marcus might as well. But my gut told me to doubt Midna, whereas it tells me Marcus will do good. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/6/2007 3:59:39 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, the Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad pic is the only one so far that very balanced. --- Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Agent 47 12.88% - Kratos 26.78% - Midna 31.29% - Scorp 29.05% ~ Status: Horrible |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2007 3:59:40 PM | message detail |
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On Marcus, some people might say newcomer Midna flopped, so newcomer
Marcus might as well. But my gut told me to doubt Midna, whereas it
tells me Marcus will do good. Gut often means squat when presented with empirical evidence though. Not that Marcus needs to be very close to Midna to handle Kefka. --- doo doo doo I got no sig |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 4:04:31 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, the Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad pic is the only one so far that very balanced. I agree, that's a very balanced pic. Toad actually stands out some so he might surprisingly be able to resist the full fury of Bowser's SFF. And given a slight leeching factor there, Ryu might get somewhat close...and there's Mewtwo, who should do decent too, and might even put a scare into Ryu. That match should be the most "flat", in terms of top-to-bottom difference, that we've seen so far. Outside shot that something shocking will happen here, in fact. Gut often means squat when presented with empirical evidence though. Well certainly...but theses are newcomers. And by "gut" I mean gut/instinct/intuition combined with a rough sense of logic. i.e., Midna=ugly=>weak. Marcus Fenix=badass=>decent at least. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/6/2007 4:05:04 PM | message detail |
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I would take Midna over Kefka --- Demyx is better than Axel. I don't like Haley Scarnato |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/6/2007 4:05:18 PM | message detail |
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Mewtwo looks great in his picture...as does everybody else, but
especially him. That said, I'm probably gonna vote for Toad, ha. As for today's match...it's nice to have a match I don't have to sweat about anymore, though it sucks I'll be missing two points on this. Oh well, first two points I've lost thus far. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 4:07:12 PM | message detail |
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I think we might have a fairly "flat" match tomorrow. unless Fenix impresses, anyway. --- http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 4:07:57 PM | message detail |
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Outside shot that something shocking will happen here, in fact. In fact, I don't even think it's that outside of a shot. I'm expecting something to happen in that match...not necessarily the result in terms of who advances, but things might not be obvious after the first 15 minutes, and I think the %es will be pretty interesting. I'm just getting a feeling about that match. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 4:11:06 PM | message detail |
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I think we might have a fairly "flat" match tomorrow. unless Fenix impresses, anyway. I think the winner tomorrow will have the lowest percentage of any winner so far. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/6/2007 4:11:06 PM | message detail |
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I'm very interested in Bowser's match. Ryu's the fan-favorite of SF,
Mewtwo's the fan-favorite of Pokemon, Toad's probably the fan-favorite
of Mario Kart, and he almost did as well as Bowser in the last
Mario-poll. Not that Bowser's going to fail to advance, but -- despite
arguably being the second strongest Mario character -- he's not a very
big fan-favorite compared to the rest. He can't really count on the
SSBM fanbase either since Mewtwo is in there and he sucks in the game
(as does Mewtwo). I dunno what's going to happen, really. I feel like that poll is up for grabs by anybody...except Toad, who may avoid last place if Mewtwo bombs. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/6/2007 4:12:05 PM | message detail |
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nah, Toad's got last locked up. but the other three spots - who knows. I still back Ryu there. --- http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 9/6/2007 4:12:51 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Toad is going to get so badly SFF'd by Bowser and Mewtwo that it isn't even funny. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/6/2007 4:13:32 PM | message detail |
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Toad got about 8% in that Mario poll with Mario and Yoshi. Toad should
get around 15%, most of it being leeched from Bowser. Ryu's pretty much
a lock to get first. --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/6/2007 4:13:58 PM | message detail |
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Ryu's capable, but it'd still be so weird for me to see Ryu > Bowser
after 2k5 and Nintendo going on a rampage here since then. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| creativename | Posted 9/6/2007 4:15:33 PM | message detail |
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I dunno what's going to happen, really. I feel like that poll is up
for grabs by anybody...except Toad, who may avoid last place if Mewtwo
bombs. The picture alone ensures that Mewtwo will finish comfortably ahead of Toad. Toad got about 8% in that Mario poll with Mario and Yoshi. Toad should get around 15%, most of it being leeched from Bowser. Ryu's pretty much a lock to get first. Given that he's the underdog, he's certainly not a lock to win. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/6/2007 4:16:51 PM | message detail |
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I'm curious to see if Bowser smashes Toad like Rikku to Vaan and we get to debate the new theory again. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/6/2007 4:18:42 PM | message detail |
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Mewtwo shocking everyone and getting first in the poll would certainly make my day. <3 --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 9/6/2007 4:20:30 PM | message detail |
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The problem Bowser has is he is going to get votes leeched from him by
Toad and Mewtwo (especially Mewtwo) which will drag him down to second. Now, if he didn't have any Nintendo competition I would consider him a potential first place finish. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/6/2007 4:20:36 PM | message detail |
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Mewtwo needs to advance, Pikachu Mudkip and Bidoof having a shot at advancement and Mewtwo not joining them is a discrase. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
