GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 466
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 8:16:42 AM | message detail |
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ZeldaFAQs is so screwed. *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php ~*ST*~ |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:17:30 AM | message detail |
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Snake's got this baby Just wait for Metal Gear Online to release on the final --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/6/2007 8:18:38 AM | message detail |
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Zelos > Tom Nook > Kefka and Marcus. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2007 8:19:56 AM | message detail |
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Cloud > Link, Confirmed. --- ~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice. This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07 |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 9/6/2007 8:20:01 AM | message detail |
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Ok so my perfect bracket is saved by an epic Frog comeback in the last
hour of the match, only to die in the next match from a bombed
character. Thanks a lot Midna. --- 1 of 926 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI Ago una , intereo unus |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 8:25:23 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| neonreaper | Posted 9/6/2007 8:26:33 AM | message detail |
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kinda surprised how people thought Midna was not only strong, but
stronger than Scorpion - not much of a stats person, so why did that
happen - what am I missing --- cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time Team Jägermeister |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:27:47 AM | message detail |
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Zeldafear Zeldafear Zeldafear argh Midna --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| TVontheRadio | Posted 9/6/2007 8:28:29 AM | message detail |
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I'm not a stats person myself, but I guess it's because of ZeldaFAQs. --- all you need |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 9/6/2007 8:29:10 AM | message detail |
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Personally I just went with the fact she's from the Zelda series,
ideally a huge plus. But she's also from Twilight Princess. I thought
that would've been enough to at least edge out Scorpion for first.
Ironically enough, Mortal Kombat is probably my second favorite series
of all time, yet in these contests I keep downplaying it's strength.
This year with Scorpion, and last year with Sub-Zero. --- 1 of 926 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI Ago una , intereo unus |
| wavedash101 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:29:50 AM | message detail |
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Or Frog was rallied for? --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru] |
| Bergqvist | Posted 9/6/2007 8:30:33 AM | message detail |
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7 pts so far and i don't even try. many people should be ashamed. --- Makin' movies , makin' songs, and fightin' round the world. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:31:23 AM | message detail |
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Frog was "rallied for" in the same way Mario was in 2003. It happens. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 8:34:49 AM | message detail |
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Hey, Ulti, care to explain how voting stuffing would reduce Samus' % of
vote/hour by a similar about to as Frog's increased in the final hour? I'm talking about: 20:00 | 21.87% | 15.37% | 52.09% | 10.67% 21:00 | 21.24% | 18.84% | 49.65% | 10.26% 22:00 | 21.50% | 19.01% | 48.89% | 10.60% 23:00 | 18.76% | 19.57% | 49.40% | 12.28% 00:00 | 17.09% | 26.88% | 44.86% | 11.17% The stats just imply ~4.5% of Samus voters switched to Frog. Add rallying, too. And it can explain the increase without cheating. Lets be honest here. This is the internet, it can't be too hard for say 10 people (and probably a lot more) to rally a couple hundred votes either. Also, what's to say Axel didn't cheat in the after school period. Surely stuffing votes when a character is expected to do well is the perfect disguise to hiding vote stuffing. No one, for example, would have noticed 10 extra votes / update for Axel in the After School period. --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 8:35:01 AM | message detail |
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Tidus > Serge > Pikachu HA! --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:36:42 AM | message detail |
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The stats just imply ~4.5% of Samus voters switched to Frog. No they don't. Rather, the more logical explanation is that Axel was getting a "rally" of his own (though nowhere near that of Frog's) and was able to more or less maintain his percentage of the total vote as Frog began his comeback. Meanwhile, the two characters not getting rallied (Samus/Kerrigan) had their percentages suffer. Again, not really that hard of a concept. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 8:38:43 AM | message detail |
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Axel's % is similar to hour before. Same story with Kerrigan. Only Frog
and Samus has big changes to the % of votes in the final hour. --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 8:38:52 AM | message detail |
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had* --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:40:07 AM | message detail |
| Yeah, Karma's on the money there. Frog's percentage exploded, Axel's didn't fall as much as would be expected due to his own supporters trying to hold on, and Samus, who had been ignored by Board 8ers since the first hour, "suffered" as a result. |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 8:40:49 AM | message detail |
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Then what about Kerrigan. Why didn't Kerrigan's votes suffer, too? --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:41:54 AM | message detail |
| Kerrigan's votes didn't suffer because she was
already on the upswing due to natural voting trends. That she does
naturally well at night partially negated Frog's massive rally. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:42:21 AM | message detail |
| They did drop over a full percent. When you only have 12% to begin with, that is a pretty noticeable drop. |
| PhelanVelvel | Posted 9/6/2007 8:45:07 AM | message detail |
| I never really expected to do too well in my first ever character battle bracket, but come on...Midna? Why is she fairing so well? :S I love the Zelda series, but I think she's an ugly little wretch. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 8:46:14 AM | message detail |
| And of course there's no way to "prove" that Axel
didn't rally in his afterschool vote (it *was* an abnormal amount of
votes - especially in a four-way - but Frog's collapsed like that in
the past), but at the very least it was plausible. Like I said before, Frog's final hour was about as plausible as Mario's final rally in 2003. Or Snake's final update against Sephiroth in 2k6. The result isn't gonna change, but it just wasn't believable to most. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 8:48:28 AM | message detail |
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Also, I wasn't saying Axel was cheating. I was just saying that with
all the apparent voting patterns surely I makes it easier for people to
cheat, as they know when to stuff more votes in order to cover an
apparent spike in votes. --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 8:52:27 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Meow1000 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:52:56 AM | message detail |
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Random post. --- Moo~ |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:54:31 AM | message detail |
| I still have no idea what a "Script" is. I rallied the old fashion way. Heck, I dialed nearly every name on my phone list, for Pete's sake! Not sure if that deserves praise or pity, but it deserves something! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2007 8:56:14 AM | message detail |
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Frog's final hour at least followed the normal direction of trends,
instead of being totally opposite to them, like Mario in 2003. Total Votes for Samus/Frog/Axel/Kerrigan: 22:00-23:00: 4799 23:00-24:00: 3903 (this is actually 58 minutes, starting from 23:02, but the previous hour is 1 hour, from 22:02 to 23:02) So, total votes actually dropped off substantially in the final hour, as they usually do. Total Votes for Mario/Crono 2003: 22:00-23:00: 4730 23:00-24:00: 5629 (this does not include the extra period 24:00-24:07 the poll ran for before ending) Whereas in Mario/Crono II, total votes went substantially up. So no, last night was nothing like Mario/Crono II. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 8/8 -- T-1 (1616 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog -- Vote: Frog |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 8:56:41 AM | message detail |
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From Karma Hunter Posted 9/6/2007 11:31:23 AM #013 Frog was "rallied for" in the same way Mario was in 2003. It happens. And I still say Mario cheated to get that win. Even *with* the "rallying", Crono was winning after 24 hours. There was no reason to start that poll 20 minutes early or end it 7 minutes late. Mario didn't pull ahead until the 1 AM EST update, 20 minutes after the 24 mark had passed. The entire thing was and still is ridiculous, and I had Mario in my bracket that year. He had no business winning that thing. ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 8:59:28 AM | message detail |
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I still have no idea what a "Script" is. I rallied the old fashion
way. Heck, I dialed nearly every name on my phone list, for Pete's
sake! Not sure if that deserves praise or pity, but it deserves
something! You deserve a shiny mudkipz! Thank you! ^_^ --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2007 9:01:04 AM | message detail |
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That it followed the "expected" trend is incidental - trends just don't
do an about-face like that under normal conditions, even in the most
extreme circumstances. Note also that Frog's match was in a four-way poll instead of a two way, and with Samus/Kerrigan taking so many votes (and no one really caring to rally them), you're not going to get the same spike as a dead even head-to-head affair. The votals in that final hour were still abnormally high, after accounting for a dropoff. Finally, I'm in no way trying to say that yesterday's match was as shady as Mario/Crono II - but there are definite parallels, and it's not a baseless comparison. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/6/2007 9:06:53 AM | message detail |
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I hate discussing such a trivial matter, but it's only natural for Axel
to not drop as much in percentage as Samus without taking into account
rallying: the first is obvious, and that is Axel's percentage is lower,
so his percentage would drop less. But, the other thing is that KH characters have a surprisingly solid second night vote... almost as if the afterschool vote never ends for them. They hold their afterschool vote until the very end, basically. Check almost any Poll Update involving a KH character in SC2K6 to see what I mean. Heck, even check out Frog vs. Riku... Frog barely gained anything at all on Riku on the second night vote (51.33% of the vote between 1:00 EST and 3:00 EST, whereas it was 50/50 in the day), and that was when the poll ended at 3:00 EST. I think there is reason to believe that Axel should've had a pretty handy advantage over Frog for the whole rest of the poll once the afterschool vote started. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| transience | Posted 9/6/2007 9:12:44 AM | message detail |
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my opinion on the Frog match is that it's an illegitimate win. it's
OBVIOUS that there was a crapload of rallying, and Frog in no way
deserved to win that match legitimately. but is it cheating? nah. not really. it's shady, and quite honestly, it's pathetic that he needed that much effort in order to beat Axel. picture or not, this dude DID get 48% on ol' Snake. but it's not actually cheating. I would be pretty peeved if I had Axel in my bracket, but it's a fair result that we'll have to deal with. Frog's likely to get destroyed next round, anyway. --- "where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2007 9:14:38 AM | message detail |
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For comparison, votals in the final 2 hours in the first 2 matches this contest: Yoshi/Knuckles/Rikku/Vaan: 10-11: 4592 11-12: 4029 Megaman/KOS-MOS/Diablo/Arthas: 10-11: 4546 11-12: 3742 Both of those show a similar dropoff in votals in the final hour to Samus/Frog/Axel/Kerrigan. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 8/8 -- T-1 (1616 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog -- Vote: Frog |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/6/2007 9:15:51 AM | message detail |
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Frog's likely to get destroyed next round, anyway. More like Frog will win over Scorpion by less than 100 votes. --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/6/2007 9:21:21 AM | message detail |
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Normally I would agree with you tranny, but I'm sick of every freaking
KH related thing coming back just because the kiddies wakes up. Soul
Calibur (The best game on the last generation), Alucard (An excellent
character unlike Sora), CATS (It would be fun if he won BUT NO the KH
fans have no sense of humour), Claire (Oh Resi games are to scary),
Castlevania (Which unlike Kingdom Hearts could actually be considered
to be a series) and so on. Finally they didn't succeed with their
horrible taste! GO FROG!!!!!! ^_^ --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/6/2007 9:22:42 AM | message detail |
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It's hard to bet against Frog in a close match. If Scorpion doesn't
dominantly lead over him next round, Frog'll probably take it...he's
just got too much of a rallying ability and a core fanbase here. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| transience | Posted 9/6/2007 9:24:52 AM | message detail |
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I don't think round 2 is even debatable at this point. the only way I'd
even consider Frog s contender is if he and Axel evenly split the "RPG
votes". I expect Scorpion to be a huge favourite come match time. --- "where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 9:27:36 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/6/2007 9:29:35 AM | message detail |
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Scorpion's definitely going to do well, but I don't see him as a huge
favorite. He's my bet, but not by too much. With a Noble Niner in the
poll as well as probably Midna, there goes around 60% of the poll. Frog
managed a lil' under 19% in a poll where he fought with Axel, so I
wouldn't think that number's going down much in Round Two if at
all...and if it's close, no way does Frog refrain from rallies. That'll
be a difficult fight for Scorpion. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| neonreaper | Posted 9/6/2007 9:32:11 AM | message detail |
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Frog/Scorp will be an excellent match, unless you really think there's
no overlap in Axel/Frog at all. Replace Scorp with Frog today and would
you expect a whole lot different from the percentages? --- cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time Team Jägermeister |
| BDawg | Posted 9/6/2007 9:32:58 AM | message detail |
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Well, another thing is Scorpion is the first leader in a fourpack with
people who have never won a match. I mean yeah he looks good but what
does it really mean? --- Should I start running now? |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/6/2007 9:34:23 AM | message detail |
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I think the reason why Scorpion is doing so well is because not that
many knows the other characters. But if you are above 15 and on this
site, you know who Scorpion is. There's no way you could have played
video games in the middle 90's without knowing who Scorpion is. Samus
will steal a lot of his votes since the casual voters actually know who
she is. But maybe it's just me trying to tell myself that "my"
character will win. It's not like I've never been wrong before in a
stats topic >_> --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2007 9:36:47 AM | message detail |
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Yesterday's match was obvious, undeniable bull****, but I'm fine with it even though I had Axel. The match was far, far too awesome to be bitter about. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/6/2007 9:37:05 AM | message detail |
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What was this script that people are on about? Was it just a link that
people spammed and when people clicked on it they automatically voted
for Frog? --- Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots! |
| HulkamaniacFTW | Posted 9/6/2007 9:38:53 AM | message detail |
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Samus>Frog BANK ON IT people are rallying on WoW boards for Christ's sake. The love for Frog on this site is ridiculous. If the match is anything close 100-500 votes, scorpion is screwed --- FuturamandFFX/TheRealosix The Cream of Hulk Hogan Fanboyism |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2007 9:40:07 AM | message detail |
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Was it just a link that people spammed and when people clicked on it they automatically voted for Frog? Yes. And if SB counted it and it decided the match, then the whole thing is a farce. I'm sorry, but tricking people into voting is horribly dishonest. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| neonreaper | Posted 9/6/2007 9:43:18 AM | message detail |
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the only person I heard/saw it from is when Ulti posted a link he said
he googled around to find. it looks bad, but I haven't really seen
anyone else say anything about it - granted I haven't kept in touch
with the aftermath --- cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time Team Jägermeister |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/6/2007 9:43:40 AM | message detail |
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Indeed. ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
