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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 462

Janus5000 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:42:29 PM | message detail
Axel isn't likely to collapse in the night too m- ONLY DOWN 10 AWW YEAH IT'S O-V-E-R COMMIT IT TO MEMORY *****ES
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 4:42:47 PM | message detail
From creativename Posted 9/5/2007 7:41:46 PM #089
Two topics+ were filled by this match? Damn. Was it all just update type discussion or was anything meaningful discussed?

I hope Frog can hang on here...even if he does, he'll be the huge dog now in the next round, but it would suck if he loses here.

I get the feeling though that Axel is going to take the lead, and just when he starts building it a little bit, Frog's night vote will kick in and reverse the trend. That would be great.

(though the thing is, with cheating having such a leveraged effect in this match, Frog's night vote could easily by countered by it)


If anyone has been cheating, it's Frog. Look at his updates.

~*ST*~
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 4:42:51 PM | message detail
only 102 votes by Axel that time.

he's slowing down!


145
132
127
115
107
121
129
118
102

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Eff Dee
MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:43:29 PM | message detail
GO TO SLEEP KIDDIES!!!! PARENTS PUT YOUR KIDS ASLEEP!!!!!
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/5/2007 4:43:30 PM | message detail
Axel isn't likely to collapse in the night too m- ONLY DOWN 10 AWW YEAH IT'S O-V-E-R COMMIT IT TO MEMORY *****ES

XD
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:43:56 PM | message detail
Two topics+ were filled by this match? Damn. Was it all just update type discussion or was anything meaningful discussed?

ANOTHER X VOTE GAIN/STALL! DAMN/HUZZAH AXEL/FROG!

Rinse and repeat about 15 times every five minutes.
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Mustache...and green...
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NClark128 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:44:10 PM | message detail
Axel slowing down? Maybe. But will it be enough?
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Rangers 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 10 6 . 30 29 1
Orioles
... 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 . 3 .. 9 ..1
Haste_2 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:44:13 PM | message detail
I think Axel's comeback nearly proves that somebody "limiting" another's day vote is meaningless, or at least, we can't ever assume such a thing. Diablo didn't do so good yesterday, though... maybe because of Arthas or something.

And, considering Knuckles made a vote swing of something like 1500 votes with Rikku, and I wouldn't call Rikku's day vote that bad... why didn't I see this coming? Well, I was being pessimistic, really.

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RyanBaer | Posted 9/5/2007 4:44:19 PM | message detail
How has frog been cheating?
smitelf | Posted 9/5/2007 4:44:40 PM | message detail
So I've been working all day, and this is the first look I've had at the poll. Damn, Axel, damn. It would be awesome if Axel beat Frog (well, not for my bracket). Now I'm wishing I hadn't "wasted" my vote on Kerrigan :(
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/5/2007 4:45:09 PM | message detail
Cue 30 vote gain next time by..
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SC2k7: 8/8, tied for 1616th
Today's Pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2007 4:45:23 PM | message detail
I still don't understand why everyone is getting excited. There's still 4 hours of night votey goodness to go. I said that Axel needed at least a 200 vote lead by the end of the after school vote (about 8 EST) to have a shot. It's going to be back and forth for a while, but eventually Frog will pull away. The question is, can Axel ride out the last bit of the after school vote to make this another epicdary Frog match?

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 4:45:32 PM | message detail
If Frog can maintain the lead until 8:30 (debatable, and doubtful), I think it's really going to slow down, and a lot. Until 9:30 Axel can continue to make small gains, until 10-10:30 it'll go even, and hopefully the last hour and a half Frog can make a push to make the small comeback. It's basically all I have left to hope for.

Also, why is everyone saying "OMGWTF THIS IS THE LAST TIME IM TAKING FROG WTF AUGH" when every close match he's ever been in he's won (other than Snake, but really, did any of you get burned by Frog > Solid picks?). Calm it down.

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Explicit Content.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 4:45:37 PM | message detail
I say 27 votes next update
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Good
NClark128 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:45:39 PM | message detail
How has frog been cheating?

The actual number of votes he's gotten per update have been jumping all over the place while Axel's been consistent on that front.
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Rangers 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 10 6 . 30 29 1
Orioles
... 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 . 3 .. 9 ..1
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:46:28 PM | message detail
I get the feeling though that Axel is going to take the lead, and just when he starts building it a little bit, Frog's night vote will kick in and reverse the trend. That would be great.

It would make for an even more awesome match, but will Frog's night vote be anywhere near as potent now that the poll starts three hours earlier? I have my doubts, but then again, I didn't expect this from Axel when I left for class today, so I could be wrong.

(though the thing is, with cheating having such a leveraged effect in this match, Frog's night vote could easily by countered by it)

If anything, I imagine more people would be "cheating" (or rallying, anyway) for Frog. He seems to have more hardcore fans, and his bracket supporters (of which I am one, but meh) are the ones who must be thinking up ways to try and stop this collapse.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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emanresU weN | Posted 9/5/2007 4:46:32 PM | message detail
130!!
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This is The_Ocelot
creativename | Posted 9/5/2007 4:47:01 PM | message detail
If anyone has been cheating, it's Frog. Look at his updates.

Which ones?

And I certainly didn't mean to imply that Axel has been cheating, I haven't been following the match. Axel backers cheating already never even occurred to me. I was just saying that cheating could well have an effect here - this match will very possibly finish with a difference of less than 100 votes. And since Frog would normally be assumed to take the night vote, cheating in favor of Axel would probably have more motivation, since Frog is less likely to need it.
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NClark128 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:47:05 PM | message detail
30+ vote gain... like friggin' clockwork.
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Rangers 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 10 6 . 30 29 1
Orioles
... 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 . 3 .. 9 ..1
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 4:47:14 PM | message detail
ACTIVATE 100 VOTE BARRIER
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doo doo doo I got no sig
creativename | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:02 PM | message detail
ANOTHER X VOTE GAIN/STALL! DAMN/HUZZAH AXEL/FROG!

Rinse and repeat about 15 times every five minutes.


About what I figured.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:10 PM | message detail
Break that 100 vote barrier next update, Axel!
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:13 PM | message detail
ACTIVATE "THIS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD" BARRIER
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Good
jonthomson | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:16 PM | message detail
Updates left: 51
Votes needed: 130
Votes/update: 2.55
Comeback rate (last 30/last hour): 27.33/30.25
First sign of the apocalypse seen at: 8:08 EST
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Jon Thomson - 6/8, next picks: Samus beats Frog
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:37 PM | message detail
this must be the west coast's afterschool programs.
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Today: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog.
Tomorrow: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna - Points: 8/8
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 4:48:47 PM | message detail
Down to 130!

~*ST*~
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smitelf | Posted 9/5/2007 4:49:28 PM | message detail
Frog is ridiculous. Can he ever win a match by a decent margin?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:49:31 PM | message detail
Football practice just let out in the west coast. You know how those jocks love them some Axel!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 4:49:31 PM | message detail
Frog has been fairly consistent. Never much less than 80, never much more than 100, usually somewhere in between.

Axel increased from 60-80 per to about 140 per, and he's slowly cooling down.

112 last update, 102 the one before. If Axel continues to cool and if frog picks his up to around 90 or so, Axel will stop these huge gains soon.

But of course we expect Frog to not only stall him but start taking votes back. He is frog after all and the night vote begins very, very soon.

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Eff Dee
Keno316 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:49:39 PM | message detail
Who cares if the topic is mainly about updates!


This is a potential upset in the making. Of course everyone's excited about it.
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X_Dante_X | Posted 9/5/2007 4:50:09 PM | message detail
*hands all Frog supporters a gun*

Take out those axel voters, men! *Charges into the poll*
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:14 PM | message detail
I still don't understand why everyone is getting excited. There's still 4 hours of night votey goodness to go. I said that Axel needed at least a 200 vote lead by the end of the after school vote (about 8 EST) to have a shot.

Oh wow, sorry the great BT that people are disagreeing with you, they simply must not have known that YOU said Axel would need at least that large of a lead to win. Now everyone will realize the error of their ways.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:36 PM | message detail
Frog DO SOMETHING
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Good
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:47 PM | message detail
THE 100-VOTE BARRIER WORKED! W00T. >_>
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:49 PM | message detail
The barrier is still holding, sire! Your orders?
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doo doo doo I got no sig
wavedash101 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:49 PM | message detail
100 VOTE BARRIER AT CRITICAL!

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creativename | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:53 PM | message detail
You can start slicing and dicing with the Masamune any time now, Glenn...any time now, really :)
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DpObliVion | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:57 PM | message detail
At least it's still triple digits....

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X_Dante_X | Posted 9/5/2007 4:51:57 PM | message detail
Still over 100! ...barely
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Temp sig until I lose the Guru. Then I'll actually make a meaningful one.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:08 PM | message detail
Frog will still have the lead by 8 EST, yay!
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Feel my truth.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:10 PM | message detail
Who cares if the topic is mainly about updates!

We are all capable of refreshing the updater. It's ridiculous that there's ten posts saying "OMG 42 VOTES CUT" every five minutes. It adds absolutely nothing to the discussion of the match.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:15 PM | message detail
103 left!
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Finally a damn bracket!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:28 PM | message detail
It would make for an even more awesome match, but will Frog's night vote be anywhere near as potent now that the poll starts three hours earlier? I have my doubts, but then again, I didn't expect this from Axel when I left for class today, so I could be wrong.

It isn't that Frog needs a night vote, so much as Kingdom Hearts characters just seem to die off after their after school pushes. Hell, every just look at Kairi/Claire or even Jill/Peach to see that the trends are startlingly similar. The only difference is that Frog has managed to hold onto his lead through the after school vote while Claire and Jill both had to mount relatively big comebacks with the second night vote.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:32 PM | message detail
I really hope Frog bounces back and wins later tonight. I really REALLY do.
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xp1337 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:33 PM | message detail
XD

Oh man, I last checked in at 3 PM EST (About 5 hours ago) and thought Frog had this locked. He had about a 1900 lead and seemed to be stalling Axel, and I figured the after-school vote was coming into effect already.

Goddamn, I'm sad I couldn't be here to see this unfold.
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
X_Dante_X | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:37 PM | message detail
Position our men all around the barrier. We can't let a single vote through!
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Temp sig until I lose the Guru. Then I'll actually make a meaningful one.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:41 PM | message detail
This is still pretty tame compared to what we've seen in the past. Kefka/Vercetti filled up six topics, right?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2007 4:52:54 PM | message detail
As "inconsistent" as the updates have allegedly been on both sides, Axel's 30 vote slices have been remarkably consistent, with the occasional spike or stall thrown in there.
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Commit it to memory.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 4:53:05 PM | message detail
116 for axel. A little bit more but still a far cry from the 140s

Axel could drop below 100 votes per update at any moment.

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Eff Dee
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/5/2007 4:53:07 PM | message detail
We're going down to 90 next time, book it.
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SC2k7: 8/8, tied for 1616th
Today's Pick: Samus > Frog
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