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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 460

trannyscience | Posted 9/5/2007 1:34:10 PM | message detail
re-posting RPGuy's Crono/Sonic hourlies:

14:00 | 51.92% | 48.08%
15:00 | 52.35% | 47.65%
16:00 | 53.03% | 46.97%
17:00 | 54.75% | 45.25%
18:00 | 53.09% | 46.91%
19:00 | 53.16% | 46.84%

20:00 | 51.73% | 48.27%
21:00 | 52.62% | 47.38%
22:00 | 51.31% | 48.69%
23:00 | 51.54% | 48.46%
00:00 | 51.15% | 48.85%

that's the part Frog has to survive. this will get worse before it gets better, but if he can make it to ~8pm, he should be able to stop the bleeding a little bit.

supposedly, anyway.
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:34:15 PM | message detail
Still going to assume he will at best average 30 votes a cut...

As of 16:31:01
2.6 Vote cuts down, 48.6 to go.

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Eff Dee
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/5/2007 1:34:37 PM | message detail
Does Frog not know how to win easily or something. I mean srsly. >_<
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:35:57 PM | message detail
And the idea of this getting worse for Frog makes me all the more excited. This could end up being one of the closest matches.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 1:36:22 PM | message detail
Sonic/Crono is a bad comparison, because Crono's day vote isn't half as good as Frog's, while Kingdom Hearts has a better day vote than Sonic.... which is sick as hell, but true.

Just looked at Frog/Riku, and I think this is back when polls started at 3 in the morning. Frog and Riku started going even again around 18:30 in (10:30 pm?), with Frog getting back something like 200 over the final 4.5 hours.

~*ST*~
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:36:56 PM | message detail
A nice, 28 vote cut. It's good. If he continues to make that sort of cut, with the odd extreme 50 thrown in there...
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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:37:00 PM | message detail
Another 30 vote cut. Axel needs to grab more votes per update if he wants to take the silver medal.
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:37:05 PM | message detail
3.53 Vote Cuts down, 47.67 vote cuts to go.

not quite a full cut there.

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Eff Dee
trannyscience | Posted 9/5/2007 1:38:21 PM | message detail
Sonic/Crono is a bad comparison, because Crono's day vote isn't half as good as Frog's, while Kingdom Hearts has a better day vote than Sonic.... which is sick as hell, but true.

Crono's day vote is worse? remember, Crono's day vote wasn't "awful" until 2006 - and Frog wasn't in that contest. it makes sense that Frog's would actually get worse, too.

if that's possible, anyway! I can't believe Frog can't get 20% of the vote here. Axel isn't exactly tough competition.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/5/2007 1:38:43 PM | message detail
Frog needs to win ONE update. JUST ONE to make me feel a little bit better about this ****ed up situation he's got himself into AGAIN!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2007 1:39:38 PM | message detail
this better not be MC/Frog II.
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Today: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog.
Tomorrow: Midna > Scorpion - Vote: Midna - Points: 8/8
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:40:01 PM | message detail
Y'know, Frog has to be an MVP in the contest setting. He may be a wannabe-choker, but he's ALWAYS good value.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:40:21 PM | message detail
It won't be MC/Frog II, Axel doesn't choke as much as Master Chief.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/5/2007 1:41:25 PM | message detail
hahaha.

darn you frog
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:41:28 PM | message detail
FUN FACT: Axel was the name of the imaginary friend I had when I was 5. ^_^ Obviously, not the KH version. Think I copied it from a cartoon. (I'm 17, mods!)

BAH GAWD ANOTHER MASSIVE CUT
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:41:28 PM | message detail
57...

O_O

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NClark128 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:41:34 PM | message detail
And a 57-vote slice into the lead!

This is going to be interesting, folks.
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Rangers 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 10 6 . 30 29 1
Orioles
... 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 . 3 .. 9 ..1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 1:41:54 PM | message detail
I meant Frog's day vote isn't half as good as Crono's, my bad.

Also I don't know if anyone noticed yet (I don't read stat topic posts I miss anymore), but Bacon fixed the stats after I sent in a feedback about them:

Message From Ultima_X at 2007-09-05 04:52:09
Can you please explain what the prediction percentage stats mean? More people picking KOS-MOS to take first place than Mega Man makes absolutely no sense...
Message From GameFAQs at 2007-09-05 06:25:52
You're right; the percentages were correct, but swapped. They've now been fixed to show the percentage of brackets that got full and partial points.


~*ST*~
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:42:30 PM | message detail
5.43 Vote Cuts down, 45.76 to go.

Ouch.

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Eff Dee
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/5/2007 1:42:42 PM | message detail
Hard to believe the same guy that nearly beat Snake is nearly losing to Axel. <_<
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 1:43:08 PM | message detail
From Forceful Dragon Posted 9/5/2007 4:42:30 PM #419
5.43 Vote Cuts down, 45.76 to go.

Ouch.


What do your stats mean?

~*ST*~
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/5/2007 1:43:11 PM | message detail
Frog is ****ed :(

Also, lol Solid ****
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:43:36 PM | message detail
Snake/Frog has got to tbe biggest anomaly of all time not called Mario/Cloud.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:43:46 PM | message detail
That's a good point, Smurf/Tron. This match has to show once again just how awful Solid **** is.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2007 1:44:15 PM | message detail
Wow, I completely forgot Frog almost beat Snake. That's...crazy.
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caps
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:44:38 PM | message detail
Im just basing them off Axel potentially averaging 30 votes per cut, ignoring the fact that they can variable between high and low. Just to keep it in perspective I guess. Starting from when Frogs lead was 1536. There is no way axel is going to keep up with 57 per update and 30 seemed like a good number.

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Eff Dee
greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:44:49 PM | message detail
Just wait until we see Liquid again. He could very well bomb worse.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 1:45:55 PM | message detail
From KamikazePotato Posted 9/5/2007 4:43:36 PM #423
Snake/Frog has got to tbe biggest anomaly of all time not called Mario/Cloud.

Mario/Cloud was one match out of nowhere. In 2004, Frog had *three* such matches and fooled everyone into thinking he was that strong. Mario/Cloud was a one-time event that will never happen again.

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Zaphod H | Posted 9/5/2007 1:46:12 PM | message detail
So about 500 vote cut from around 3:15 pm EST to now, this going to pick up or stay the same until night?
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emanresU weN | Posted 9/5/2007 1:46:26 PM | message detail
Don't do this to me Frog...
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:46:27 PM | message detail
I'd lol if Axel made another 57 cut, FD.

*waits for update*

...

lol
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:47:00 PM | message detail
This just increases the tension. WIll Axel make it in time?

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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:47:11 PM | message detail
Frog only had one strong match. Liquid and Chief are just as much losers as he is.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/5/2007 1:47:23 PM | message detail
Only 13 that time...I guess this means Axel is primed for another 70 vote raping.
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:47:45 PM | message detail
5.86 down, 45.33 to go.

not quite 57 that time ^_^

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Eff Dee
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:48:04 PM | message detail
Mario/Cloud was one match out of nowhere. In 2004, Frog had *three* such matches and fooled everyone into thinking he was that strong. Mario/Cloud was a one-time event that will never happen again.

I meant single match anomalies. Frog as a whole is almost as weird as Magus in fall from graces.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:48:12 PM | message detail
And you see, once again, hitherto massive cuts compensate for the occasional small one.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:49:35 PM | message detail
Is 13 Frog's lucky number?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:50:18 PM | message detail
Frog only had one strong match. Liquid and Chief are just as much losers as he is.

Liquid may well have increased in strength (he certainly will post MGS4), as a leech from Snake's extreme boost. The only match we've seen him since his Frog loss was a possible SFF-affair vs. Sephiroth.

Master Chief...well, Master Chief can win or lose absolutely any given match against any given opponent depending on the direction of the wind.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:51:32 PM | message detail
57 AGAIN

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Xuxon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:51:59 PM | message detail
*47.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2007 1:52:05 PM | message detail
Lead is now 1313, my lucky number.

Axel wins! =p

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:52:05 PM | message detail
47, actually. <_<
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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2007 1:52:07 PM | message detail
Master Choke seems to be one of those characters that looks good in the stats everyone in spite of his actual performances in the polls.
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This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:52:08 PM | message detail
47
BAH GAWD
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:52:21 PM | message detail
7.43 down. 43.76 to go.

I may just have to change it to 35 per, because that might be more realistic..

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Eff Dee
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:53:13 PM | message detail
Yeah well you shut up.

In the last hour, Axel cut off...400 votes. Yikes.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2007 1:54:05 PM | message detail
Master Chief is actually decently strong but keeps getting put in matches he might lose in to create drama.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/5/2007 1:54:35 PM | message detail
I smell now even more cheating......
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 1:55:51 PM | message detail
It's not cheating. Sometimes cheating accusations are valid...but it's Kingdom Hearts after school. This is valid IMO.
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