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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 460

Haste_2 | Posted 9/5/2007 8:50:26 AM | message detail
Grrr... I'm tired of these upsets coming so close, yet not happening...

...but I have something to perhaps make up for it... if any random person is up to it.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/5/2007 8:50:58 AM | message detail
About Vincent/Zelda....

I took Vincent and didn't think twice, but I think it's going to be one of those matches where 1st place is up for grabs all day long. We'll see....
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard
NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0)
transience | Posted 9/5/2007 8:51:29 AM | message detail
yowza, Samus is whipping ass right now, too. where's HM?!

58.41% that last update.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 8:51:33 AM | message detail
Frog actually gets the after-school vote over Axel BOOK IT ...... ..... not
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Grrreat
MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/5/2007 8:52:39 AM | message detail
I took Vincent over Zelda because I think that square fans, especially FF7 fans are much more devoted to there characters than Zelda fans being devoted to anyone other than Link.
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Xuxon | Posted 9/5/2007 8:52:53 AM | message detail
Meaning the east coast of the US, like it was originally in 2k2 before GFaqs moved to PST for a few years, but they changed back to EST last year.

GameFAQs was on Central time then (Texas), not Eastern. As for Axel, Diablo was a day vote beast and hardly did anything with it yesterday. Anything could happen with the trends still; I certainly wouldn't count on an Axel comeback.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2007 8:55:55 AM | message detail
I have Samus > MM then Cloud > MM

This all rides on Bowser getting through his division though. Ryu could damn well ruin my bracket if he beats out bowser in the third round.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 8:57:59 AM | message detail
... by now an Axel comeback is extremely unlikely... he'd have to go as crazy as Kairi did vs. Claire, and there's not way in hell that's happening, especially with Smaus around
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Grrreat
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2007 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Watch Axel mount the comeback, only to have Frog mount his own comeback and win by 6 votes.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 9/5/2007 9:01:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, Samus being around to take some day vote power is going to hurt Axel a bit, too. He's going to have to make up 1500+ votes in around 8-9 hours. In a one-on-one match, he'd have a hard time with that. With four people, it's going to be almost impossible, regardless of how good Axel's day vote and how bad Frog's day vote is.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 9/5/2007 9:02:14 AM | message detail
Also, I'm really glad that we have had some close fights in these first three matches, what with how worried we were about that before.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
NominateSerge | Posted 9/5/2007 9:32:47 AM | message detail
Man, Axel's really stinkin' it up right now. If he keeps this up, no amount of day vote strength is going to save him here. He was closer to Kerrigan than Frog the last few updates.

Speaking of which:

At the 12:30 mark, this match has 66220 votes. For a comparison of how the other two matches were doing at the same time:

Knux/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - 85411
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - 72225

A little behind yesterday's, which still finished with 140,000.
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Vote for Serge.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 9:33:55 AM | message detail
Frog is angry right now
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Grrreat
NominateSerge | Posted 9/5/2007 9:35:24 AM | message detail
Also, do you think it'd be better if we combined the two prediction percentages for the characters if we want to add them to the overall list? Or we should at least include it on the CBVI list somewhere.

Total Prediction Percentage

Mega Man - 93.59%
Yoshi - 80.87%
Knuckles the Echidna - 59.12%
KOS-MOS - 30.09%
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Vote for Serge.
ZFS | Posted 9/5/2007 9:36:00 AM | message detail
Haha, awesome. Looks like Samus has done pretty well for herself with the morning vote. I was thinking she might increase 1 - 2% total, but that's probably the least she'll be getting. aww yeah


Nice to see Frog has it about wrapped up, especially after what was apparently a scare in the middle of the night. Can't see Axel coming back from a nearly 1800 vote lead, not with Samus here to rock some of the after school vote.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
NominateSerge | Posted 9/5/2007 9:36:55 AM | message detail
Haha, Kerrigan just beat Axel by 1 vote on that update.
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Vote for Serge.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/5/2007 9:37:30 AM | message detail
Wow Frog is going berserk now. He can probably get to 2500 at this rate before the afterschool vote hits.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 8/8 -- T-1 (1616 way)
Bracket: Samus > Frog -- Vote: Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/5/2007 9:37:37 AM | message detail
Like I said, watch Axel go on a tear and take the lead, and make Frog fight back for it tonight en route to the closest match we've ever had.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
entropyx | Posted 9/5/2007 9:38:36 AM | message detail
Speaking of which:

At the 12:30 mark, this match has 66220 votes. For a comparison of how the other two matches were doing at the same time:

Knux/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - 85411
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - 72225



Monday was Labor Day, and Tuesday was the first day back to school, which is usually an early dismissal. Today is most likely the first full day of school.
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Philadelphia Phillies [73 - 65]
4 days until the Eagles kickoff!
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/5/2007 9:39:52 AM | message detail
Why is Axel randomly sucking it up now? Frog is massacring him now, this is pretty much over bar a Sonic like comeback.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
NominateSerge | Posted 9/5/2007 9:39:59 AM | message detail
...I never got early dismissal from school after Labor Day...
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Vote for Serge.
NominateSerge | Posted 9/5/2007 9:41:25 AM | message detail
Honestly, if Axel comes back from this, considering he's not even going to be doing any sort of gaining for another three hours, it might be the most impressive comeback we've ever had. It took Sephiroth nearly all day to catch Snake.
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Vote for Serge.
ZFS | Posted 9/5/2007 9:44:07 AM | message detail
Like I said, watch Axel go on a tear and take the lead, and make Frog fight back for it tonight en route to the closest match we've ever had.

I'd figure that would almost have to be an unprecedented comeback. A 2000 vote lead -- maybe even less than that -- might as well be the point of no return here. The character with the best of day votes isn't turning that around. I daresay Link, king of the 24 hour vote, couldn't turn that around if someone got that far ahead of him in this format.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/5/2007 9:45:37 AM | message detail
Yeah, If Axel came back from this, it would be the greatest comeback to date. (you have to consider that its 4 people, making it that much harder.)
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Come visit my board, Hektik, In the C-64 today!
Not changing this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. Started 7/7/07
voltch | Posted 9/5/2007 9:48:02 AM | message detail
btw how important to this contest are votes from non-american nations like the UK?
i'd imagine several thousand votes come from outside the US and it could tip the balance during very close matches.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Mumei | Posted 9/5/2007 9:49:31 AM | message detail
I daresay Link, king of the 24 hour vote, couldn't turn that around if someone got that far ahead of him in this format.

I daresay he'd still beat Cloud if he started off down by 3500 votes.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/5/2007 9:51:55 AM | message detail
Axel has started stalling Frog again =(
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/5/2007 10:06:14 AM | message detail
Naaah... Frog isn't stalling
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: ~ Axel 16.20% - Frog 20.72% - Samus 52.80% - Kerrigan 10.28% ~ Status: Grrreat
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/5/2007 10:17:08 AM | message detail
He was when I posted that. <_<
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/5/2007 10:19:58 AM | message detail
In the last hour or so, Axel has lost 0.1%, and Frog has gained 0.1%. Awesome.
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Come visit my board, Hektik, In the C-64 today!
Not changing this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. Started 7/7/07
Buzzup | Posted 9/5/2007 10:20:56 AM | message detail
Which match do you think will be the first to surprass the first day votal?
I think it'll probably the Auron/Shadow/Chris match, featuring 3 popular characters and taking place on a Sunday, otherwise, it'll be the Vincent/Zelda one.
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/5/2007 10:23:46 AM | message detail
Saturday's.
Cloud Strife
Jill Valentine
Midgar Zolom
Revolver Ocelot

3 popular characters, and a Rofl @ Zolom.
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Come visit my board, Hektik, In the C-64 today!
Not changing this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. Started 7/7/07
EggDragon2001 | Posted 9/5/2007 10:34:38 AM | message detail
3 straight updates in favor of Axel.
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*is chubtoad*
Early to bed, early to rise, gives a man a small ***** size
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 10:34:50 AM | message detail
Jill and Ocelot are considered popular now?

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 10:35:46 AM | message detail
3 straight updates, and yet only 20 votes. I'm still not worried about it.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Yesmar | Posted 9/5/2007 10:36:31 AM | message detail
Uh-oh. Axel's starting to inch out a comeback.

I still hold out hope for a night vote for Frog. Claire couldn't pull anything out, but that match was on a Friday, which I believe has a less pronounced night vote.
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Twisted Misters: 2007 World Series of Pop Culture Champions!!!
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/5/2007 10:36:35 AM | message detail
Jill almost beat peach, and I'd say shes popular, and Ocelot is so-so, but enough that I'd still say this match gets a lotta votes.
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Come visit my board, Hektik, In the C-64 today!
Not changing this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. Started 7/7/07
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/5/2007 10:37:33 AM | message detail
Jill and Ocelot are considered popular now?

They're popular in my heart.

That... does decide who moves on, right?
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 10:37:33 AM | message detail
...and now 20 in one update. It might be time to start worrying.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 10:43:49 AM | message detail

They're popular in my heart.


Speaking of your heart, I met two girls the other day named Ariel, and the first though that came to my mind was "oh man yo would totally make them dress up as mermaids and double team it."

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/5/2007 10:57:20 AM | message detail
I'm a little suprised by Axel's performance. I suppose I can't COMPLETELY poke fun at people who took Samus > Axel....

Is Axel REALLY that popular of a character? I always thought he was a bit player in KHII.
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard
NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0)
voltch | Posted 9/5/2007 10:57:26 AM | message detail
ariel was quite a force in my disney contests.
she even won th last tourament.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/5/2007 10:58:45 AM | message detail
In 40 minutes Axel has gained 42 votes on Frog from his peak... I can roll with that kind of pace. Unfortunately it's definitely going to pick up.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/5/2007 10:59:34 AM | message detail

I daresay he'd still beat Cloud if he started off down by 3500 votes.


lmfao

If Cloud got a 500 vote lead, it would be over for Link. Link is the King of Bleeding Percentage not the 24 hour vote, anyway.
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Feel my truth.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/5/2007 11:11:57 AM | message detail
If Cloud got a 500 vote lead, it would be over for Link. Link is the King of Bleeding Percentage not the 24 hour vote, anyway.

Huh, losing percentage is not the same as losing votes. Look at this page for better information.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2566&num=2
neonreaper | Posted 9/5/2007 11:15:18 AM | message detail
did Frog just gain a bit?
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/5/2007 11:17:11 AM | message detail
Frog gained everything back and then some. He's going towards 1900 now.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/5/2007 11:56:08 AM | message detail
Nothing doing for now.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz
"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
transience | Posted 9/5/2007 12:01:49 PM | message detail
if 5am ends up being Frog's worst time, I'm going to throw out every trend we've seen in previous contests.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/5/2007 12:04:22 PM | message detail
By the hour:

Time | Axel | Frog | Samus | Kerrigan
01:00 | 15.49% | 22.75% | 50.28% | 11.49%
02:00 | 15.67% | 21.55% | 50.58% | 12.20%
03:00 | 15.68% | 21.37% | 49.87% | 13.08%
04:00 | 17.24% | 18.54% | 50.83% | 13.39%
05:00 | 18.55% | 17.94% | 49.49% | 14.01%
06:00 | 19.95% | 17.44% | 50.22% | 12.39%
07:00 | 18.83% | 16.01% | 54.45% | 10.71%
08:00 | 18.76% | 16.32% | 54.97% | 09.95%
09:00 | 17.36% | 17.51% | 54.62% | 10.50%
10:00 | 17.20% | 18.17% | 52.96% | 11.68%
11:00 | 16.06% | 18.59% | 54.08% | 11.27%
12:00 | 17.37% | 19.29% | 52.86% | 10.48%
13:00 | 15.73% | 19.81% | 52.55% | 11.91%
14:00 | 18.64% | 19.25% | 50.78% | 11.33%
15:00 | 17.49% | 18.85% | 52.83% | 10.83%

Axel had a good 14:00, but mostly at the expense of Samus, not Frog. Both Kerrigan and Frog should start dwindling, soon, but it looks like Frog did enough during his good times to make up for the bad.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
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