GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 459
| trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 7:08:08 PM | message detail |
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people are expecting strength out of Midna because she's Zelda. she's
essentially the main character in the most popular game of the year by
far. will it be enough? well, that's up to you obviously, but given the
competition, I'd say it's impossible for her to get lower than second
place. --- http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 7:11:20 PM | message detail |
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Midna just doesn't look so great, so I'm dubious about her. I don't
think this picture specifically is all that bad - just her in general. Again, I've never played Twilight Princess. Is she just really likable in that game? Will the Zelda fanbase really rally around her like people expect? People seem to think they will, and I'm sure she will display a fair bit of strength. But Scorpion isn't fodder. Well, I would think you should know what she looks like before you decide how strong you think she will be! It's not like Nintendo didn't put her in the limelight when hyping up the game. That picture shouldn't be a surprise to anyone familiar with TP. As far as being likable, I'd say she's likable to people that have played the game, and especially to people who beat it. She is a legit Zelda character. Hell, she plays a bigger role in that game than Zelda and Ganondorf. So it all depends on how popular you think TP is as a game. Midna will surely get support from that specific fanbase. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/4/2007 7:11:25 PM | message detail |
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Uh...that picture of Midna is awesome. Evil/angry Midna is what I like to see. How the heck did Yoshi beat Knuckles? He's a dragon, and dragons always win. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:13:06 PM | message detail |
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Woohoo! This was a great match. Next too picks look pretty damn awesome! So far, no character has really gotten a crappy pic today. I'm looking forward to see how Midna does in her match. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Charizard009 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:14:33 PM | message detail |
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He's a dragon, and dragons always win. No, he's some sort of dinosaur. --- Digimon Ds FC: 0602-2881-0275 Pokemon FC: 0344 6861 2198 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 7:18:34 PM | message detail |
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Somebody didn't see the update with Yoshi's final smash on the Smash website TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| cyko | Posted 9/4/2007 7:19:04 PM | message detail |
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Heh. I'm skeptical of how Dante will do in this kind of format, myself. me, too. i'm equally skeptical of Leon, which is why i have Vivi > Dante in their division final. i know that Vivi will most likely face some SFF against Baltheir, but why can't Dante face just as much SFF from Leon? they are both Capcom action stars. heck, Devil May Cry was originally supposed to be a Resident Evil game. ˇviva Vivi! http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-03.jpg if anything, i think that Kerrigan's face pic will prevent her from getting utterly obliterated. she's got a shot at taking Axel for third now. even with the vastly superior pic, i don't think she will match Frog, though, because he does seem to have a pretty devoted fanbase. http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-04.jpg ok, i'm also yet to play Twilight Princess (but i will soon!), but what is up with that thing on Midna's head and why does it take up most of her pic? it's a good thing she's the only Nintendo character in that match, because that big artificial-brain-looking thing won't win her any casual votes. i really hope she can take Scorpion, because he looks awesome. hopefully Agent 47 will draw enough casual attention from Scorpion to put Midna over the top. --- I support the following SC2K6 characters: L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 7:24:25 PM | message detail |
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I have Midna > Scorpion first round, but Samus > Scorp in the
2nd. I could really see Scorpion winning it outright in the first
round, but I figured I'd go with the "safe" pick in Midna. Even if she
wins the first round, I don't think it's going to be by much, and even
though Samus hasn't really shown any significant SFF power in the past,
I think any damage she does to Midna will be enough for Scorpion to
advance in the 2nd round. I also think I believe Scorpion is stronger
than most of the people around here, because I really
don't think Subby is that much more popular than him. I'm not saying
they're tired at the hip, but I'd be shocked to see him that far below
the iceman. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 7:28:14 PM | message detail |
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I thought Scorpion was the "safe" pic.
Especially now, surprisingly seeing how many people seem to not be
familiar with her at all. Yet, she's seemingly getting a lot of blind
faith picks. I took Scorpion without too much hesitation. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 7:29:49 PM | message detail |
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I don't know... I always thought of Midna as the favorite, at least
board wise. I really wish I had gone with Scorp at this point, because
it's what I always thought was going to happen, but I let the board
sway me for at least the first match. Hopefully Midna barely wins it
though, and it pays off. I'm not quite sure why I didn't go with Scorp,
because if he came in 2nd, I wouldn't have been mad about it, but now
if Midna comes in 2nd I'll hate myself. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 7:32:00 PM | message detail |
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Well, I would think you should know what she looks like before you decide how strong you think she will be! I knew what she looked like, so I always was a bit skeptical about her. If she really is the main character though, she should be fine. I didn't realize she was that prominent. Just getting a feeling people are underestimating Scorpion. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:32:21 PM | message detail |
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I have Samus > Frog in the second round... because well, I think
this is just going back to Nintendo vs Square... or maybe not... -_- --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:34:39 PM | message detail |
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Even if you don't want to use the direct Auron comparison for Kingdom
Hearts II reasons, the last time we saw Scorpion, he was on par with
(pre-Ninty boost) Ness, and the last time we saw Sub-Zero, he was on
par with Master Chief. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 7:37:02 PM | message detail |
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Round 1- Division 1 Group C Characters Involved: Axel Summer 2006 Contest Destiny Division - 7 Seed Destiny Round 1 --- Lost to (2) Mega Man, 35340 [30.13%] - 81959 [69.87%] Extrapolated Strength --- 38th Place [25.24%] Axel's sole contest appearance was a half decent first round loss to Mega Man. However a year has passed since Kingdom Hearts 2 has come out, so it is likely he won't be quite as impressive this time around. Frog Summer 2004 Contest 20XX Division - 6 Seed 20XX Round 1 --- Defeated (11) Liquid Snake, 43913 [50.05%] - 43820 [49.95%] 20XX Quarterfinal --- Defeated (3) Master Chief, 45524 [50.0038%] - 45517 [49.9962%] 20XX Semifinal --- Lost to (2) Solid Snake, 42563 [48.61%] - 44992 [51.39%] Extrapolated Strength --- 13th Place [29.96%] Summer 2005 Contest Zebes Division - 5 Seed Zebes Round 1 --- Defeated (4) Riku, 48604 [51.67%] - 45455 [48.33%] Zebes Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Samus, 29112 [29.95%] - 68106 [70.05%] Extrapolated Strength --- 33th Place [22.88%] Clearly the star of the 2004 bracket, Frog was quite the anomaly in that year by going dead even with Liquid Snake, then doing the same to Solid Snake shortly afterwards. His 2k5 appearance was a little less interesting, though it helped show that Riku does indeed have some semblance of strength (which he proved against Yoshi in 2k6). One of the biggest snubs in 2k6, Frog returns this year to hopefully cause another big stir in Round 2. Samus Summer 2002 Contest West Division - 5 Seed Western Round 1 --- Defeated (12) Ken Masters, 40857 [65.31%] - 21698 [34.69%] Western Quarterfinal --- Defeated (4) Ryu, 39293 [57.85%] - 28630 [42.15%] Western Semifinal --- Defeated (1) Sonic the Hedgehog, 41973 [50.02%] - 41939 [49.98%] Western Final --- Lost to (7) Sephiroth, 46047 [47.36%] - 51177 [52.64%] Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [41.07%] Summer 2003 Contest North Division - 2 Seed Northern Round 1 --- Defeated (15) Isaac, 81123 [75.34%] - 26560 [24.66%] Northern Quarterfinal --- Defeated (7) KOS-MOS, 78948 [69.75%] - 34246 [30.25%] Northern Semifinal --- Defeated (6) Squall, 65582 [58.2%] - 47103 [41.8%] Northern Final --- Lost to (1) Link, 41139 [37.94%] - 67294 [62.06%] Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [36.72%] Summer 2004 Contest Chaos Division - 2 Seed Chaos Round 1 --- Defeated (15) Lara Croft, 68889 [82.39%] - 14721 [17.61%] Chaos Quarterfinal --- Defeated (7) Sam Fisher, 65809 [80.97%] - 15464 [19.03%] Chaos Semifinal --- Defeated (6) Sora, 57627 [65.85%] - 29880 [34.15%] Chaos Final --- Defeated (1) Sonic the Hedgehog, 48589 [57.51%] - 35897 [42.49%] Final Four --- Lost to (1) Cloud, 41584 [40.99%] - 59867 [59.01%] Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [39.50%] Summer 2005 Contest Zebes Division - 1 Seed Zebes Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Yuri Hyuga, 74493 [87.32%] - 10813 [12.68%] Zebes Semifinal --- Defeated (5) Frog, 68106 [70.05%] - 29112 [29.95%] Zebes Final --- Defeated (3) Ganondorf, 53776 [59.66%] - 36363 [40.34%] Elite Eight --- Lost to (1) Mario, 39215 [40.21%] - 58304 [59.79%] Extrapolated Strength --- 5th Place [38.21%] Summer 2006 Contest Spazer Division - 1 Seed Spazer Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Nidoran F, 95533 [81.85%] - 21180 [18.15%] Spazer Semifinal --- Defeated (4) Ada Wong, 98352 [79.78%] - 24923 [20.22%] Spazer Final --- Defeated (3) Rikku, 85439 [69.00%] - 38387 [31.00%] Elite 8 --- Defeated (1) Tifa, 72773 [50.49%] - 71355 [49.51%] Final Four --- Defeated (1) Zelda, 72890 [55.27%] - 58985 [44.73%] Finals --- Defeated (1) Solid Snake, 67947 [53.11%] - 59987 [46.89%] Extrapolated Strength --- 1st Place [50.00%] Battle Royale Battle Royale Day 1 --- Lost to Mario, 12335 [7.74%] - 18473 [11.59%] |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 7:39:45 PM | message detail |
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Samus is the second Noble Niner to perform this year. Always thought to
be next only to Clinkeroth, she proved this wrong by losing in
spectacular fashion to Mario in 2k5 (which for some reason alot of
people didn't see coming). She redeemed herself by walking all over the
2k6 bracket (her match with Tifa excluded for obvious reasons). She
just had a much hyped and anticipated Metroid Prime 3 come out last
week, so she'll be at peak performance tomorrow. Sarah Kerrigan Summer 2005 Contest Devil Division - 4 Seed Devil Round 1 --- Lost to (5) Vincent, 21058 [21.00%] - 79200 [79.00%] Extrapolated Strength --- 64th Place [13.70%] Summer 2006 Contest Triforce Division - 5 Seed Triforce Round 1 --- Lost to (4) Terra, 40922 [41.31%] - 58141 [58.69%] Extrapolated Strength --- 59th Place [15.19%] Ah Kerrigan. If anybody in these character battles does worse than they deserve, it's Kerrigan. The central character of the legendary Starcraft games. Sadly, her 2 pervious appearances were flops in every sense of the word. Yet every year she has a large and vocal group calling for her taking the championship or something. This year they're trying to use Arthas' performance today as justification, but I highly doubt she'll be doing anything, at least until Starcraft 2 comes out 10 years from now. Predictions: Samus is the obvious lock for first place and at least 50% of the votes. So let's examine the others. 2 Square characters and uber fodder. Let's put it this way, Kerrigan lost to Terra while Frog went toe to toe with Solid Snake. Frog is the favourite and I have to agree with the consensus here. Frog scored 30% on Samus in 2k5 and is from the much more "hardcore" Chrono Trigger, as opposed to Axel who scored 30% on Mega Man. Although knowing Frog, he'll find some way to look either really bad or really good here. I'll say Samus with 60%, Frog with 18%, Axel with 13% and Kerrigan with 9%. TuRtLe's Prediction: Samus 60%, Frog 18%, Axel 13%, Kerrigan 9% TuRtLe's Bracket: Samus > Frog TuRtLe's Vote: Frog TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 7:39:51 PM | message detail |
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For the next match...I think Frog's got it unless CT's dropped alot
more than I thought in two years. Frog beat pre-KH2 Riku head-to-head
(and I understand Riku's more important to KH1 than Axel to KH2), and
30% on Samus in 2k5 is better than 30% on Mega Man in 2k6. I also like
CT's fanbase when compared to KH2's in terms of being loyal. Of course, anything can happen, but I think it's fair enough logic. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:40:26 PM | message detail |
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Division 1: Round 1 - Match 3 – Axel vs. Frog vs. Samus Aran vs. Sarah Kerrigan Moltar’s Analysis Axel Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts Seed in 2006: 7 Lost in 2006 to Mega Man in Round 1 Remember when, “Got it, memorized?” was cool? Good times. Frog Game/Series Known From: Chrono Trigger Seed in 2004: 6 Seed in 2005: 5 Lost in 2004 to Solid Snake in Round 3 Lost in 2005 to Samus in Round 2 Frog hasn’t failed to amuse us yet with his Contest appearances. Samus Game/Series Known From: Metroid Seed in 2002: 5 Seed in 2003: 2 Seed in 2004: 2 Seed in 2005: 1 Seed in 2006: 1 Lost in 2002 to Sephiroth in the Elite 8 Lost in 2003 to Link in the Elite 8 Lost in 2004 to Cloud in the Final 4 Lost in 2005 to Mario in the Elite 8 Won the 2006 Contest, but lost in Day 1 of the Battle Royale The strongest female character is back to show her stuff. Kerrigan Game/Series Known From: StarCraft Seed in 2005: 4 Seed in 2006: 5 Lost in 2005 to Vincent in Round 1 Lost in 2006 to Terra in Round 1 WHYWHYWHYWHYWHYWHYWHY??!?! All contest vets right here. That makes this one pretty easy to predict. Kerrigan’s pretty much a non-factor. If you can’t beat Terra of all people, you won’t be doing much contest-wise, even with a face picture. Axel is a little bigger blip on the radar. He didn’t do that bad against Mega Man last year, but he still lacks the strength to compete with the big dogs. Now to the two names that matter in this match, Samus and Frog. Deciding between these two would be super-duper extra tough if 2005 never happened. But luckily, for the sake of all our brackets, it did. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2100 There’s no way Frog recovers from a beating like that, so Samus has this one locked up. I think Axel may come closer than expected to #2, but Frog shouldn’t have fallen that far since 2005. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus > Frog > Axel > Kerrigan Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 53% - Frog: 21% - Axel: 16% - Kerrigan: 10% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis After Samus won last year's contest, she returns in the third group and has a pretty easy time of things. She should win this group pretty easily, and Kerrigan should finish in last pretty easily. Kerrigan has proven to be terrible fodder in these contests. So yet again, the battle for second place is the intriguing part of the match. Kingdom Hearts has been trending up in popularity, and Chrono Trigger really showed its age over the past two contests. Frog almost lost to pre-KH2 Riku in 2005, then didn't even make the contest in 2006. Magus lost to Knuckles in his first match in 2005, then didn't even make the contest in 2006. Crono lost in the final to Mario in 2005 in a contest tailored for him to win, then in 2006 gave up the biggest vote swing ever in his embarrassing loss to Sonic. Even in 2004, which was CT's best year in contests, Frog almost melted down twice. Meanwhile, Kingdom Hearts characters have done nothing but impress, outside of Sora's slipup against Snake in 2005. Riku proved how overrated Frog was in 2005, winning a ton of updates and percentage during the day before ultimately losing. Kairi overcame Claire Redfield in 2006 thanks to the after-school vote from KH fans that vote for KH over anything else, before putting up a good showing on Rikku. And Sora's résumé has spoken for itself since 2004. And most importantly of all, Axel put up 30% on Mega Man last year. Granted it was a gimp Mega Man, but Axel's strong showing during the after school vote proves how dedicated the KH fans are. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:40:58 PM | message detail |
| So what does all this mean? Frog put up 30% on a
strong Samus but is pretty underrated in the raw 2005 stats due to
Samus's meltdown against Mario. Axel put up 30% on a gimp Mega Man, and
there's no reason for Axel to be too underrated. Stats point to Frog
coming in second place, but recent contest trends heavily
favor Axel to win this. If Axel is anywhere near pre-KH2 Riku (which he
should be) and CT continues to melt down, Axel could make a strong push
during the day at second place if Frog isn't too far ahead. Furthermore, Frog's last match was against Samus and he completely sucked in it. Samus is in this group. Then there's the issue of the LOL, X-STATS. SFF-adjusted 2005 Frog scores 53.64% on 2006 Axel. That's a 7.28% difference. Mathematically, you cut that percentage in half when you double the options, giving us 3.64%. Given recent contest trends and the fact that fan favorites (which Axel is, big time) tend to overperform in polls with multiple entrants, Axel can't make up 3.64%? I've got Axel taking second place. Frog should ride the CT night vote to a decent lead, but if it's not a big enough lead, Axel will completely bury him during the day. He has no one to compete with for a big day vote push. Samus doesn't have typical day vote power, Kerrigan is just crap, and Frog is a master of melting down during the day. It's an upset pick, but it's a good upset pick. Ulti's Prediction: Samus [52.34%] Axel [18.46%] Frog [18.00%] Kerrigan [11.20%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Samus Aran -- 66% Frog -- 19% Axel -- 10% Sarah Kerrigan -- 5% Samus domination -- do you dig it? Fresh off of -- mmm -- Corruption, Samus is primed to lay the smacketh downeth all over these losers. I went pretty high on this one, doubling the three other characters combined, but I’ve got faith in Samus rocking this one pretty hard. I mean, look at that competition, who in the world isn’t going to vote Samus? Hellions, that’s who! The only question now is who takes second place. Initially, I might have said Axel due to that crazy Kingdom Hearts fanbase. But after remembering how weak he was, all things considered, it’s hard to take him in this one. Frog doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence, too, but with him being from Chrono Trigger and likely being higher on the Square pecking order, it’s probably the safer bet to side with him. Depending how well (or poorly) Frog does here might give some indication of how other CT characters are going to do. If Frog sucks it up and either barely slips by, or actually gets beaten, I’d say Crono might be in for some trouble when he has to go up against Vincent later in the contest. I’d figure that the Chrono Trigger fanbase would be pretty hardcore, though, what with the game not having anything done to it since 1995. But you never know. The main bit here is Samus rocking faces. While it’s not necessary that she go out and put up huge numbers, her doing so can only help to dispel all of the crazy discussion about the possibility of Mega Freak pulling off an upset. Bracket: Samus > Frog Vote: Samus Yoblazer’s Analysis Yesterday, I called Mega Man the "elephant in the room" - the one character who had everyone else absolutely trumped and his top position in the next round locked up. The same thing can be said of Samus today... if she weren't about a trillion times too sexy for such an unpleasant sounding metaphor. Samus Aran is the merciless, leather clad dominatrix in the room, and she's about to go to town on three white collar stiffs who paid entirely too much money for five minutes with her. *****. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:41:43 PM | message detail |
| For the second day in a row, the question is not
who will win - as it will assuredly be Samus - but who will come in
second. Kerrigan, who can be called anything from a pathetically weak
character, to a waste of an entrant, to one of the biggest busts in
contest history, is out of the running. Don't come back, please. No, my
friends, if any excitement is generated today, it will be generated by
Frog and Axel. Although one has been around longer, each of these entrants has at least one impressive performance under his belt. In 2004, Frog beat a very determined Liquid Snake, 7-vote'D Master Chief in one of the contest's all time great matches, and capped off his miraculous run by making Snake look like **** (get it? haha!). He returned in 2005 to defeat Riku and job to Samus (hey Frog, look down a spot. Guess who's happy to see you?) before taking a sabbatical last year. Normally, such a resume would call for an open-and-shut case. Even when one disregards Frog's amazing matches in his inaugural year, he still beat Riku, a very popular Kingdom Hearts character who is much more central to the series than Axel. If Riku couldn't do it, how does Axel stand a chance? It's a fair question, but one with a simple answer. Axel stands a chance by virtue of his very surprising performance on Mega Man last year. In said match, the Flurry of Dancing Flames (Got it memorized?), put up over 30% on Mega Man, a contest force renowned for tearing apart those on a lower tier. Is that lone shocker enough for me to gamble and take Axel over Frog? No sir, although I kinda wish it were. I doubt that either Samus or Kerrigan will hurt one of these guys more than the either, so neither has a distinct advantage or disadvantage outside of his innate strength. In such a case, I'll go with Frog, the bigger character from the bigger game. Hope you make it next year, Axel. Samus (53%) Frog (20%) Axel (16%) Kerrigan (11%) Lopen’s Analysis Samus to win? Easy money. Kerrigan to lose? You betcha, after seeing her get smashed by Vincent and Terra. She has no fanbase here, that's pretty clear. So then, the question is: Axel or Frog? Frog is the instinctive choice if you've seen what he's done before. His 2004 run was pretty sick... narrow victories against Liquid Snake and Master Chief... and 48% against Solid Snake ain't not no joke. A lot of power there. Whereas in Axel's sole match, he lost to Mega Man pretty soundly. However, looking at it more closely, I don't think it should be this simple. While Axel did lose to Mega Man, he wasn't crushed. And Frog... what has he done since 2004's sequence of crazy matches? First round, he edged out Riku... which, admittedly, doesn't make Axel look like a million dollars, but it's pre KH2 Riku. Second round, he lost to Samus by about what Axel lost to Mega Man. Samus might be stronger than Mega Man, but by how much? I don't believe it to be by as much as the stats say. All things considered, I'm thinkin three things here: #1. Axel is just below 2005 Frog in popularity... last year. It's possible he'll be more popular this year. (And Frog being less so is not an impossibility either) #2. Frog's the one to lose more votes here to Samus, even if just a bit more. Frog has more ties to Nintendo than Axel. #3. With four combatants in one match pic, it's possible Frog will be mistaken for Frogger, or Poison Dart Frog of MGS3 fame. Instant loss. All of these things considered... give me Axel for second place. Lopen's Prediction: Samus – 45.91% Axel – 23.09% Frog – 19.54% Kerrigan – 11.46% Karma Hunter’s Analysis The fun continues in our first match that doesn't have a whole lot of SFF to go around. Samus is top-tier Nintendo, winner of last year's contest. Frog is old Square, night vote beast and daytime chump. Axel is new Square - KH to be precise, night vote chump and daytime beast. And Kerrigan... is lol Kerrigan. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:42:09 PM | message detail |
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UPDATE: BUT WITH HER BROOD WAR PIC OMG As much as I'd like Axel to take this due to my fanboyism for him and dislike of Frog (not to mention it would be lol BT), I can't see Frog dropping this. There's not *too* much to say, we haven't seen him in awhile and he's overrated... but even then he's done more than the other two in this match have dreamed of. Karma Hunter's Vote: Axel. Commit it to getting it memorized. Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Samus with 57%, Frog with 20%, Axel with 14%, Kerrigan with 9% Upset Probability: 65% I'm fanboyish enough to think Axel has a good chance here. Frog is almost certain to have slipped since 2k5, and even if Axel is indirectly weaker it's possible the fanbase may favor him over Frog here. Frog *barely* beat Riku, and if he hadn't had his run in 2k4 it's quite possible he would have lost. He's got nothing near that confidence here. If Mega Man is legit, Axel's got a great shot. And Kerrigan... OH GOD... dare I say it? No, I won't. (THAT BOX SHOT IS BALLIN' SUCK IT SAMUS) Transience’s Analysis now here's a boring match. Samus will obviously dominate this fourpack - she's gotten 70% on Frog before and is projected to get 75% and 85% on Axel and Kerrigan respectively. if that wasn't bad enough, Metroid Prime 3 just got released, Chrono Trigger characters have been on a slow decline for the last couple of years, and Sarah Kerrigan has already proven herself to be one of the most disappointing entrants of all time. I guess you can make a case for Axel over Frog, but I don't buy it. not only is Frog stronger than Axel, but he's got a more dedicated fanbase and Chrono Trigger is simply much more popular on this website than Kingdom Hearts. I don't think they'll abandon Frog here. it's theoretically possible, but 30% on Mega Man isn't really all that impressive when you look at MM's other matches in 2006. again, I wouldn't call Frog a lock, but I'd be pretty damn surprised if he lost here. two Square characters Chrono Trigger has more fans Samus and Frog win transience's prediction: Samus - 53.56%, Frog - 23.24%, Axel - 16.06%, Kerrigan - 7.14% Guest’s Analysis - ff6man Hello all, this is my first attempt at a match analysis and I hope it's to the liking of the Analysis Crew. This match is an interesting one in my opinion, as most of the board seems to have cast this match off as a simple and easy prediction to make. I, however, would have to disagree, while Samus will, of course, be the clear cut winner, second place is not as clear as many would like to think. Frog is a character from Chrono Trigger, a fantastic RPG made by Squaresoft for Super Nintendo many a year ago. In Frog's career in the Gamefaqs Contests, he's had some great runs, from defeating Master Chief in the closest match in Gamefaqs history, to almost breaking the noble nine by defeating Solid Snake, Frog has had some amazing matches. This is all well in good, except for the fact that these matches took place in 2004, three long years ago. In 2005, Frog's contest outing didn't look nearly as good, he barely defeated Riku of Kingdom Hearts fame, and got annihilated by Samus in the second round. After that, he completely skipped the 2006 contest only to return now. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:43:00 PM | message detail |
| Now we take a look at Frog's competition. Sarah
Kerrigan has only had two contest showings in the past, and they were
not pretty. She not only disappointed hundreds of bracketmakers by
losing to Vincent Valentine in 2005's contest, but disappointed
THOUSANDS of bracketmakers in 2006 by losing to Terra Branford (WOOOOO!!!!)
from Final Fantasy VI, but not only did she lose, but she lost very
convincingly to Terra, who (though I don't like to admit it) is a very
weak, almost borderline fodder character. This is, in my opinion, due
to FFVI's ensemble cast, but that's an argument for another day. At any
rate, the bottom line is no matter how you look at this match, Kerrigan
has almost no chance of seeing second place, and I'd be surprised if
she ever saw third place at any point in the match. That leaves one character for Frog to battle for second place, Axel. Axel has only entered one contest so far, and it did not leave much room for analysis, as it was a feeding to a noble nine character. Axel did, however, manage to put up over 30% on Megaman, which for all intents and purposes, shows some promise within him. Combine this decent showing with the fact that two years ago, Frog was barely able to defeat Riku, AND the fact that Chrono Trigger characters have been sliding more and more every year, AND the fact that vote totals have increased significantly from the last contest (Which hurts Chrono Trigger characters even more), and I'd say we have ourselves a match on our hands ladies and gents. While many would love to shrug this possibility off as a crazy pick, I'd like to think that Axel stands a very good chance of taking second place, and sending myself and all the other Axel believers, farther up the top bracket list. With all the new factors coming into play with this crazy Four way bracket type, this match (Along with so many others) looks to be another exciting one for Frog. Summary: ff6man's bracket says: Samus > Axel Percentage prediction: Samus - 58.4% Frog - 16.5% Axel - 17.4% Kerrigan - 7.7% Crew Consensus: In a surprising turn of events, Samus > Frog is not the roaring majority here. 5 of us went with it, but 3 bold folks went with Samus > Axel. Will it pay off for them? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 7:44:36 PM | message detail |
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Fresh off of -- mmm -- Corruption, Samus is primed to lay the
smacketh downeth all over these losers. I went pretty high on this one,
doubling the three other characters combined, but I’ve got faith in
Samus rocking this one pretty hard. I mean, look at that competition,
who in the world isn’t going to vote Samus? Hellions, that’s who! i c wut u did thar And I was worried I might have highballed it a bit, then I saw HM's analysis. Excellent TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 7:45:45 PM | message detail |
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therealmnm: I thought Scorpion was the "safe" pic. Especially now, surprisingly seeing how many people seem to not be familiar with her at all. Yet, she's seemingly getting a lot of blind faith picks. I took Scorpion without too much hesitation. Midna has been the clear favorite in the Oracle and everything else. It wasn't what I expected to see. Xcarvengerx: I have Samus > Frog in the second round... because well, I think this is just going back to Nintendo vs Square... or maybe not... That's what I have...not like I'd choose against Frog in any case, but I think he has a slight edge over Scorpion/Midna. But it's almost a toss-up between Frog and the winner of Midna/Scorpion. If Midna beats Scorpion with ease, she might be the favorite, except for the possible SFF thing between her and Samus. RPGuy: Even if you don't want to use the direct Auron comparison for Kingdom Hearts II reasons, the last time we saw Scorpion, he was on par with (pre-Ninty boost) Ness, and the last time we saw Sub-Zero, he was on par with Master Chief. I don't think Scorpion is that weak. I'd say he should be at low 20's with respect to Link. I do think Sub-Zero is stronger than him, I always thought that. However it shouldn't be by too much. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| GTM | Posted 9/4/2007 7:47:08 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-01.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-02.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-03.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-04.jpg Text to image it! --- 500 TOPIC ~ GTM lets close this topic at 499 >.> ~ dj hypnosis |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 7:49:31 PM | message detail |
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Sub-Zero being stronger makes sense. He's been in every Mortal Kombat
game off the top of my head, and was a central character in a few.
Although I think he was a bit inflated last year due to Armageddon.
Unfornately he has a pretty easy path so we won't get to see Board 8
hype him up only to have him fall flat on his face. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:52:20 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Scorpion is that weak. I'd say he should be at low 20's with respect to Link. That's convenient, I think Ness should be at low 20's with respect to Link. But Subby's still a decent step ahead of that. MC is more mid 20's WRT Link, if you ask me, and there's little reason for Scorp to have changed much since 2k4. He was pretty consistent the three times we saw him, to boot. It's not impossible for Midna to be under him, but that would place her lower than I would expect on the Nintendo pecking order. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 7:53:16 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't expect Sub-Zero or Scorpion to be too spectacular in this format. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 7:53:56 PM | message detail |
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I didn't say Subby wasn't stronger... just not that much. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 7:56:53 PM | message detail |
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If Midna is only twice as liked as
Tingle, that statistically puts her above Ness and close to MC. I'm not
calling for her to be a power-house -- I rather like her around MC
pre-Halo 3 -- but this is not exactly a tall order to ask of a huge
character from LoZ:TP, to be above Scorpion in strength or above Ness
on the Nintendo pecking order...at least to indirectly double Tingle. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 8:03:10 PM | message detail |
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If Midna is only twice as liked as Tingle, that statistically puts
her above Ness and close to MC. I'm not calling for her to be a
power-house -- I rather like her around MC pre-Halo 3 -- but this is
not exactly a tall order to ask of a huge character from LoZ:TP, to be
above Scorpion in strength or above Ness on the Nintendo pecking
order...at least to indirectly double Tingle. True, true...this site is NinZeldaFAQs after all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 8:06:14 PM | message detail |
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All I got to say on the Midna front is.... *SPOILERS* I want her post final battle human-esque form in at least one picture <_< --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 8:13:43 PM | message detail |
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I wanted ZSS in a picture, and we saw what happened. Learn from my mistakes, young one! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man (4/4) |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 8:13:53 PM | message detail |
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The fact that you have to mark said pic with a spoiler shows that it won't appear. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:14:26 PM | message detail |
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spoilerz in my stats topix --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 8:14:43 PM | message detail |
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TP SPOILERS http://tomo285.com/800px-Midna.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8fR6XJlaeY For those who haven't played the game wondering what he's talking about. END SPOILERS --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 8:15:41 PM | message detail |
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The fact that you have to mark said pic with a spoiler shows that it won't appear. bubububut mithos!!!11! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Axel/Frog/Samus/Kerrigan - Bracket: Samus > Frog - Vote: Samus (8/8) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 8:16:30 PM | message detail |
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Buy or Sell: We will see ZSS in some form during this contest. Buy or Sell: We will see Samus' Corrupton suit in some form during this contest. Buy or Sell: We will see Samus sporting anything but the ol' orange 'n reds during this contest. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 8:17:36 PM | message detail |
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Hell I'll buy all of that! And ZSS will help her this time! But the Corruption suit will give her the best advantage! --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:18:11 PM | message detail |
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ballin' will be destroyed buy buy --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:18:29 PM | message detail |
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Buy or Sell: We will see ZSS in some form during this contest. Hopefully in another tight match again too. >> If she gets it with two other NNs in the match...ohhhh boy. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:20:22 PM | message detail |
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Damn! I wanted to see if KOSMOS could get to 4000. I don't care if there was SFF or not toady, I honestly would take KOSMOS in direct match with Arthas or Diablo. Even if it ended up being a huge gamble. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:25:59 PM | message detail |
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3 debatable or at least exciting matches in a row... why is this contest so good? --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 8:27:50 PM | message detail |
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cause the format = ratings and big time votals hell even the fourth match is debatable and exciting to see what will happen between Midna and Scorpion. The next clear cut matchup is like...Auron > Shadow --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 8:28:01 PM | message detail |
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MNM'S RIDICULOUSLY ACCURATE AND DETAILED ANALYSIS Me think Samus has this one in the bag... --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 8:32:13 PM | message detail |
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Do people think ZSS would do as bad in a match against three other
Nintendo characters (your call on who) than if they are three "Nonal"
characters? I would think that, when it's kept inside the Nintendo
fanbase, Samus becomes much more recognized (or at least understood
that she looks like a woman) and might also be slightly carried by
SSBB-hype (not to an advantage, but to prevent a disadvantage). I'm almost certain ZSS would come off as completely different in a ZSS/Yoshi/Zelda/Kirby match compared to a ZSS/Vincent/Leon/MC match. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:34:38 PM | message detail |
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I still have no earthly idea how the Zero Suit can make Samus perform
as poorly as she did, assuming that was the reason for that bad
performance. The way Brawl absolutely dominates this site in anticipation polls, you'd figure folks would be at least up to date on what Samus' alternative is in the game. But given how cut and dry her path is in this contest (unfortunate!) the only way that picture could matter is if she got it in the Cloud/Samus/Mega Man/X fourpack. --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 8:36:18 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'm sketchy on seeing ZSS again... ever... partially for the same
reason we haven't seen WW Link since 2k3. Not that he exactly looked
weak or anything, but he *did* omgwtflose... and we haven't seen him
since. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 8:37:40 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'm sketchy on seeing ZSS again... ever... partially for the
same reason we haven't seen WW Link since 2k3. Not that he exactly
looked weak or anything, but he *did* omgwtflose... and we haven't seen
him since. I still hold firm that 2k3 was a conspiracy --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:38:23 PM | message detail |
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I still have no earthly idea how the Zero Suit can make Samus
perform as poorly as she did, assuming that was the reason for that bad
performance. The way Brawl absolutely dominates this site in
anticipation polls, you'd figure folks would be at least up to date on
what Samus' alternative is in the game. Pit's not going anywhere baby! TINGLE FOR SC2K7 CHAMP. Believe. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:39:19 PM | message detail |
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i believe --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
