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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 459

trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:34:01 PM | message detail
curiosity here

who wins, Frog or KOS-MOS?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 4:35:34 PM | message detail
Frog. Not wildly confident about it, but I'd stick with it methinks.

I'd take Diablo over Frog though...MAYBE Arthas too.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/4/2007 4:35:58 PM | message detail
Frog, 30% on Samus is more impressive than any of KOS-MOS's matches.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:36:29 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1340

what was that?
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/4/2007 4:37:29 PM | message detail
Oh, well, my memory was wrong then. Somehow I thought KOS-MOS got 25% in that match.
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"..Which means I am a product of that thing...I am no different from Lucca and the others...I am a part of all living things!" ~Robo, Chrono Trigger
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 4:37:47 PM | message detail
Frog got 30% on a stronger Samus, I'd say. and that looks like KOS-MOS's strongest year... I don't think she's as strong as that right now, though.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:38:28 PM | message detail
mind you, I'd probably take Frog too.. but with Crono's supposed decline last year, I thought I'd see if anyone was interested in the upset.
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thok | Posted 9/4/2007 4:38:33 PM | message detail
I've thought about it, and I think Mega Man's true strength is being a bit hidden by the fact that 2-4 are relatively close. Basically all of Kosmos, Diablo and Arthas could be getting some sort of rallying support in an attempt to get second, while Mega Man hasn't needed to rally at all.

If only the top contestant was advancing, Mega Man would probably have at least an extra percent or so. Maybe more. It's hard to analyze this factor with only two matches around, one of which was on a weekend. Once we have a few matches, we can compare total numbers of votes instead of percentages to see if this is actually coming up.
trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:39:48 PM | message detail
I actually used KOS 2k3 = KOS 2k6 in my screwy stats. it makes the most sense given her performance on Aeris (which was significantly better than Marle's)
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 4:40:27 PM | message detail
Frog may have declined, but KOS-MOS is the wrong person to test him on it, considering her little series is done and doesn't have near the staying power that Chrono Trigger does. Expect KOS-MOS to gradually fade into obscurity.

TuRtLe
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/4/2007 4:40:56 PM | message detail
Point is, sometimes you guys grasp at straws that just aren't there and label it as "SFF".
Some of you really REALLY reach for similiarities and then act like that is a valid reason that the character(s) will or won't win or lose.

"Well, because Yoshi, Knuckles and Mega Man all wear gloves, that's sure to split the glove fans and could hurt such and such...etc...etc."

One character is just more popular or liked than another. Period.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 4:41:09 PM | message detail
wasn't Samus a little SFF'd in 2003, though? if you use anything near her 2k4 value, KOS-MOS isn't too far behind Frog.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 4:42:06 PM | message detail
I'd confidently take Frog for whatever reason. Guess it's just not a whole lot of faith in KOS-MOS.

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trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:42:20 PM | message detail
is that the Link match? methinks that was a legit performance, or at the very least it's "linear".
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 4:43:21 PM | message detail
eh, I dunno. I think she was SFF'd a tad. it explains the crazy boost in 2k4 after receiving nothing. it also explains Squall.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:45:19 PM | message detail
45% on Kirby tells me Squall wasn't as strong in 2k4. had nothing to do with the "SFF".
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trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 4:45:43 PM | message detail
er, 55% on Kirby.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 4:48:51 PM | message detail
meh, it's a mystery. Samus' division doesn't reveal much either.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 4:59:37 PM | message detail
I'm so tired of catching up on stats topics at this point, the first 4 pages of this topic shall go unread, I didn't miss anything of importance did I?

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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 5:07:19 PM | message detail
Just look at the new match pics...
Is that Kerrigan's box shot pic? Didn't really recognise her... and what the heck is that thing? Midna? Doesn't look like a Nintendo (unless you have played TP)...
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 5:08:20 PM | message detail
Doesn't look like a Nintendo (unless you have played TP)...

I can count the number of people who haven't played TP on one hand.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man (4/4)
Tediz247 | Posted 9/4/2007 5:11:14 PM | message detail
XD, when I saw that Frog pic, I immediately thought of this Luigi pic:

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/7240/luigiek3.png

We totally need to get Bacon to use that for Luigi.

Other thoughts on pics: Good to see Kerrigan get a recognizable pic, 47 looks badass, so does Scorpion, Midna doesn't really stand out.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:14:27 PM | message detail
that picture of Midna is too cramped. she needs to be shrunk or something so you can see her whole body.

don't think it really matters, though.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 5:18:08 PM | message detail
I can count the number of people who haven't played TP on one hand.

O rly? Let's see what this board says...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 5:19:36 PM | message detail
XD @ that Luigi pic

That topic kicked ass

TuRtLe
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/4/2007 5:20:33 PM | message detail
I don't like Kratos's light blue background. It doesn't look right. It should be purple.
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OH JEEZE!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 5:31:21 PM | message detail
I can count the number of people who haven't played TP on one hand.

OH GOD I WAS ONLY JOKING
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man (4/4)
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 5:35:57 PM | message detail
OH GOD I WAS ONLY JOKING

I KNOW. I am just curious... am I really lagging behind the rest of the world? :p
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 5:39:54 PM | message detail
TP is only the fourth most played game in the world behind Pac-Man, Tetris and Barbie's Horse Adventures.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man (4/4)
Kaxon | Posted 9/4/2007 5:44:10 PM | message detail
XD, when I saw that Frog pic, I immediately thought of this Luigi pic:

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/7240/luigiek3.png

We totally need to get Bacon to use that for Luigi.


Oh GOD no. I have Luigi going to the elite 8, and with that picture he has even less of a chance than he does now...
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 5:45:42 PM | message detail
btw, did anyone save the old stats topics?
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Just Some Person | Posted 9/4/2007 5:52:09 PM | message detail
Diablo slowly mounting a comeback?

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 6:14:06 PM | message detail
Match III: Axel vs Frog vs Samus vs Sarah Kerrigan

Information:

Name: Axel
Game/Series From: Kingdom Hearts series
Past Contests: CB2k6
Wins: None
Losses: Mega Man (2k6)

Name: Frog
Game/Series From: Chrono Trigger
Past Contests: CB2k4, CB2k5
Wins: Liquid Snake (2k4), Master Chief (2k4), Riku (2k5)
Losses: Solid Snake (2k4), Samus Aran (2k5)

Name: Samus Aran
Game/Series From: Metroid series
Past Contests: CB2k2, CB2k3, CB2k4, CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: Ken (2k2), Ryu (2k2), Sonic (2k2), Isaac (2k3), KOS-MOS (2k3), Squall (2k3), Lara Croft (2k4), Sam Fisher (2k4), Sora (2k4), Sonic (2k4), Yuri (2k5), Frog (2k5), Ganondorf (2k5), Nidoran F (2k6), Ada Wong (2k6), Rikku (2k6), Tifa (2k6), Zelda (2k6), Solid Snake (2k6)
Losses: Sephiroth (2k2), Link (2k3), Cloud (2k4), Mario (2k5), BR Match 1 (2k6)

Name: Sarah Kerrigan
Game/Series From: Starcraft
Past Contests: CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: None
Losses: Vincent (2k5), Terra (2k6)

Analysis:

This is the first match where all the characters have been in a contest before, but it won’t be the last as 9/32 first round matches include characters that have appeared in a contest today. Compare to the last two days you might think this match will be easy to predict, but if the last two days have told me anything it is not to underestimate anyone.

One thing that is for certain is Samus will be taking first in this four-pack. Not only is she a member of the noble nine, but she got a new game, Metroid Prime 3 released just last week. MP3 will play a big part on how well she does this contest and with this game being the first big game released on the Wii since Resident Evil 4 it could help her greatly in the contest. I see her breaking 50% in this match easily and with a good MP3 boost she could approach or go past 60%.

Frog is the favorite to take second place in this match, but there are some people that are taking the Axel upset. One of the biggest reasons is people are expecting Frog to drop in popularity. I think Chrono Trigger has been out long enough that the only reason the characters would drop is from random fluctuation, though with the new generation Frog does have a reason to drop. Another reason people think Axel has a chance at beating Frog is that KH fans are known to vote a character from KH over any other characters. The same can be said for Chrono Trigger, it’s a game that is only really known because of ROMs (IIRC CT didn’t sell very well on console) and the main character is a member of the noble nine. On top of all that Frog beat Riku and I would never rank Axel to do as well as Riku.

Finally we have Kerrigan whose big difference this year is the announcement of Starcraft 2. I’m not expecting her to be upsetting Frog or Axel, but hype could prevent her from looking more pathetic than she already is. I’m still expecting her to struggle to break 10% especially with Samus in the poll.

Using the x-stats the match would be Samus - 42.49%, Frog - 23.14%, Axel - 21.46 and Kerrigan - 12.91%, but as we’ve seen in the last two matches those types of predictions won’t work. Like I said I’m expecting Samus to have little trouble at breaking 50% while I can see Kerrigan failing to get 10%. If Frog and Axel do start off close to each other I can see Axel making some sort of comeback during the day.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus > Frog

charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus - 55.17%, Frog - 18.56%, Axel - 15.45%, Kerrigan - 10.82%

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Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
Ness26 | Posted 9/4/2007 6:16:15 PM | message detail
Diablo slowly mounting a comeback?

He's running about even with Arthas right now, and KOS-MOS is just building her lead. I'd be shocked if Diablo passes Arthas, and even if he does he has no chance to catch KOS-MOS.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 6:16:41 PM | message detail
Nice analysis, charmander. I just got back from visiting my mom in the hospital(she had some surgery done to a disc in her neck) so I've prolly missed another good 6 or 7 pages. Doesn't look like this poll has changed much since I left though. More of the same. The highlight of this match was hours ago when Arthas took third and proved himself to be decent.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 6:41:57 PM | message detail
FACE CATS is like a certainty now.
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Darklurkr | Posted 9/4/2007 6:43:16 PM | message detail
I'm pissed I didn't do my brackets correctly. I totally didn't see that it said u had to put the winners in ORDER of finish! CRAP! O well I'm gone.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2007 6:46:42 PM | message detail
FACE CATS is like a certainty now.

Somebody set Peach up the bomb.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - Bracket: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man (4/4)
creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 6:50:22 PM | message detail
Midna looks so bad...I was really surprised when Midna was favored over Scorpion pre-contest, but I went with it. Figured people were right. And she's still the favorite. I've never played Twilight Princess so I have no idea how appealing she is. But I just have trouble seeing people vote that that...just look how cool Agent 47 and Scorpion look, then look at her.

I'm smelling Midna underperforming at least slightly here. And I don't think people should be shocked if Scorpion wins.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 6:55:34 PM | message detail
Why is everyone saying Midna looks bad? That's what she looks like. That's not a bad picture or anything. Anyone familiar with Twilight Princess whatsoever knows that's what she looks like. Unless you were plan on her getting a ton of votes from people not familiar with TP whatsoever, I don't see what the problem is.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 9/4/2007 6:56:00 PM | message detail
I know I have Midna > Scorpion. I think SB intentionally found the absolute worst pic of Midna possible, just to **** with us. Damn him!
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bloodhawks return | Posted 9/4/2007 6:56:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, Midna looks perfectly fine/normal. I still think she will win over scorpion by a good bit.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 6:59:08 PM | message detail
No more kiddies votes for Midna = not instant win.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:01:44 PM | message detail
after today's match, I think Kratos has a good chance to upset Scorpion.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 7:03:25 PM | message detail
Why is everyone saying Midna looks bad? That's what she looks like. That's not a bad picture or anything. Anyone familiar with Twilight Princess whatsoever knows that's what she looks like. Unless you were plan on her getting a ton of votes from people not familiar with TP whatsoever, I don't see what the problem is.

I just think that the way a character looks is a part of their core strength. e.g., imagine if Cloud looked like Vaan - would he be the 2nd strongest out there? Not even close I think.

Midna just doesn't look so great, so I'm dubious about her. I don't think this picture specifically is all that bad - just her in general.

Again, I've never played Twilight Princess. Is she just really likable in that game? Will the Zelda fanbase really rally around her like people expect? People seem to think they will, and I'm sure she will display a fair bit of strength. But Scorpion isn't fodder.

I think that match will be close.

I also think Agent 47 might impress a bit, while Lloyd might underwhelm.
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creativename | Posted 9/4/2007 7:04:02 PM | message detail
Kratos I mean.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 7:04:50 PM | message detail
if people voted for Ganon when he was winking at Diablo, they'll definitely vote for that pic.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 7:05:10 PM | message detail
I know I have Midna > Scorpion. I think SB intentionally found the absolute worst pic of Midna possible, just to **** with us. Damn him!

How is that a bad pic for her? What, did you want her in a picture in the foreground covering up everyone else riding on the back of Wolf Link?
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Charizard009 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:05:51 PM | message detail
How the heck did Yoshi beat Knuckles?
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ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 7:07:13 PM | message detail
Midna is a central character in the game, maybe even more than Link. She's a likable character with a solid story behind her, so I'd certainly expect her to have a definite backing from the Zelda fanbase. There were a number of folks who thought she was the best in the game. She may not be very photogenic, but that shouldn't hurt her with those that like her. If anything, she just won't be getting any of the "I don't care about any of these characters, which one looks the coolest" votes.

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