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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 458

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 12:25:13 PM | message detail
Jill over Ocelot is likely a lock. The others I'm not so sure about.

no.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
RyanBaer | Posted 9/4/2007 12:25:29 PM | message detail
The way I look at it is like this...

Ganondorf: 40%
Thrall: 25%
Virgil: 20%
Ratchet: 15%

Something like that. Ganondorf isn't top tier, so he won't be able to totally blow them away. And Vergil is just a shadow of Dantes popularity. What Arthas has shown today is that Warcraft characters aren't a joke, and they will be able to rally behind Thrall to get him to advance. Vergil doesn't really have much of a fanbase except for people that are like "lol, he looks badass, i'll vote for him"
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 12:27:08 PM | message detail
heh, that reminds me Ryan, you owe me a sig for Arthas not finishing second. :)
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 12:31:09 PM | message detail
tran, you go on IRC?
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 12:32:34 PM | message detail
You give me a reason to believe that Vergil "doesn't have a real fanbase" and maybe I'll go along with that. And Vergil hardly looked badass against Sephiroth. You could hardly even see the guy to begin with because the picture was so bad and he wasn't in the form most of his fans love him for.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 12:33:03 PM | message detail
...also, um... cubemate? I hope that isn't what I think it sounds like... I didn't think we'd reached the point where people had to share cubicles *quite* yet. <____<

Uh, where do you work? I work in a large cubeville. Only team leads and above are privileged with single cubes! Everyone else has doubles. I was in one by myself for the first 6 months, but I got a cubemate in February. But she's cool and also eye-candy, which is a nice distraction in a sea of male engineers. <_<; Plus she's a gamer!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 12:33:10 PM | message detail
but Nelo Angelo > Vergil
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Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 12:35:40 PM | message detail
Or hell, you give me a reason to believe that Ganondorf is only going to manage 40%, too. Yoshi almost did it against much stronger competition. Ganondorf to only get 40% in that match seems pretty ridiculous.

And no one likes Nelo Angelo more than Vergil! Foolishness, KH, foolishness!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 12:36:49 PM | message detail
Especially considering Ganon is totally stronger than Yoshi last I checked. Ganon's looking to get 45% at least.
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redrocket | Posted 9/4/2007 12:40:29 PM | message detail
Uh, where do you work? I work in a large cubeville. Only team leads and above are privileged with single cubes! Everyone else has doubles. I was in one by myself for the first 6 months, but I got a cubemate in February. But she's cool and also eye-candy, which is a nice distraction in a sea of male engineers. <_<; Plus she's a gamer!

This is a very sad, pitiful commentary on the state of the American workforce...
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RyanBaer | Posted 9/4/2007 12:51:09 PM | message detail
heh, that reminds me Ryan, you owe me a sig for Arthas not finishing second. :)

What do you want it to be?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 12:51:26 PM | message detail
Uh, where do you work?

In Indianapolis. :(

Never once have I seen a "double." The concept scares and frightens me.

(and excites but let's be honest here)
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BDawg | Posted 9/4/2007 12:52:11 PM | message detail
I thought it was pretty given people were anti-voting Sephiroth in the VC.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 12:52:16 PM | message detail
so.. is this the afterschool vote?
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
Xuxon | Posted 9/4/2007 12:55:25 PM | message detail
There's a huge problem with your Sephiroth analogy. Sephiroth may be popular, yes, but not everyone likes him. A lot of those votes were surely antivotes, or at the very least, people who don't care all that much about Vergil.
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Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 12:55:55 PM | message detail
I don't think people were anti-voting Sephiroth until the later rounds when the leaderboard was entirely composed of Sephiroth. He decimated everyone (particularly Liquid Snake) who wasn't Ganondorf or Bowser too effectively for me to believe otherwise.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 12:55:57 PM | message detail
Whatever it is, it doesn't seem to be amounting to **** other than giving KOS-MOS more of a lead.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/4/2007 12:58:01 PM | message detail
Umm... Sephiroth's going to get some anti-votes in any match, villain's contest or not. Perhaps he didn't get anymore than usual, but all that's saying is that Vergil's value is legit, which is still not nearly enough to beat Arthas today.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 12:59:28 PM | message detail
And I can't say I agree with this topic abandoning Vergil. 21% on Sephiroth essentially guarantees he'll get at least that in the Ganondorf/Thrall/Ratchet (since you've gotta figure Sephiroth could beat that easily in a 3v1 match) four pack.

Not if you think that a good chunk of that 21% were "Not Sephiroth" votes, looking at how weird Seph was in the Villains Contest against Ganon and Bowser (Liquid Snake be damned). I'm certainly not locking in Vergil to that amount. I acknowledge that he got that against Sephiroth. I just don't put that much faith into that result holding up.
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redrocket | Posted 9/4/2007 1:00:46 PM | message detail
Umm... Sephiroth's going to get some anti-votes in any match, villain's contest or not. Perhaps he didn't get anymore than usual, but all that's saying is that Vergil's value is legit, which is still not nearly enough to beat Arthas today.

I think people need to stop taken it as a given that Thrall is going to amount to as much as Arthas.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 1:01:03 PM | message detail
Even if Vergil is every ounce as strong as he showed against Sephiroth and then some, he wouldn't beat Arthas. That point seems indisputable to me, beyond doubt. The question is how close Thrall is to Arthas.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/4/2007 1:03:40 PM | message detail
Fair enough. I take it as a given that he's at least close, though, and Vergil isn't even that.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/4/2007 1:05:19 PM | message detail
The thing is I have absolutely no idea how important Arthas and Thrall are in their games. Anyone can clear this up for me? All I know is that Arthas is on the cover of some Warcraft game...
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The Real Truth | Posted 9/4/2007 1:05:40 PM | message detail
Since when is 16% anything amazing? I'm confused.....No doubt in my mind that Vergil would be breaking 20% this match.
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Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 1:05:55 PM | message detail
I don't see that as indisputable. Why is that unarguable? Because he's beating Diablo who is clearly superior to Vergil in strength? Diablo is also superior to KOS-MOS in strength 1v1.

I mean, I'd hate to be a buzz killer for Arthas here, but it's 16%. Yeah, it's impressive to me, but only because I assumed Arthas would be total crap. Arthas could still be high level fodder and I wouldn't be too surprised.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 1:06:08 PM | message detail
Never once have I seen a "double." The concept scares and frightens me.

Oh, I think you're picturing it wrong. It's not a "single" cube with 2 people crammed up into it. It's a space that's the size of 2 cubes (2 large cubes, since mine is apparently wheelchair accessible!), with a common entrance in the middle. She has tons of space on her side, I have tons of space on my side. I've seen it before in other places... I thought it was normal. It certainly beats a multi-cube with 5 people sitting in it with nothing but their computer on the desk in front of them!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/4/2007 1:06:39 PM | message detail
There's plenty of doubt in my mind...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 1:06:52 PM | message detail
Since when is 16% anything amazing? I'm confused.....No doubt in my mind that Vergil would be breaking 20% this match.

It's a four-way poll - with a Noble Niner, no less. Considering the quality of the competition (we already know Diablo's a decent midcarder with *nothing* to fear from Vergil), it's quite impressive.
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The Real Truth | Posted 9/4/2007 1:08:42 PM | message detail
I still don't see how. He could be getting this exact percent or just slightly higher in a 1vs1 match. I could be wrong, but so could you. You guys are like whomg, Arthas is a tank, watch out, when you really don't have a clear picture of him.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 1:09:45 PM | message detail
He could be getting this exact percent or just slightly higher in a 1vs1 match.

If you believe that, I'm more confident in my reasoning than yours.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 1:10:25 PM | message detail
I think the shock factor here is the fact that Arthas is besting Diablo, rather than the actual percentage he's obtaining.

But maybe that's me.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 1:11:55 PM | message detail
Nope, that about sums up the highlights of this matchup Kleenex.
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Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 1:12:22 PM | message detail
Diablo's issue here is fanbase loyalty. No doubt in my mind Mega Man is stealing his votes. Everyone loved to bring up the post villains contest poll, have we forgotten it now?

Diablo in a four way poll might just be nothing to really be afraid of. KOS-MOS is pretty safely beating him here, and you can only get beat so bad by KOS-MOS before you're also considered fodder. .
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Yesmar | Posted 9/4/2007 1:19:28 PM | message detail
This is kind of off on a tangent, but people always talk about the hardcore Xenosaga fanbase that votes for KOS-MOS, but I'm not entirely sure that's true. I always suspected that the reason KOS-MOS is more popular than other fan-favorite RPG characters was the "OMG!! Hot robot chick!" factor.
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furryjenny | Posted 9/4/2007 1:24:01 PM | message detail
The thing is I have absolutely no idea how important Arthas and Thrall are in their games. Anyone can clear this up for me? All I know is that Arthas is on the cover of some Warcraft game...

Arthas: WC3: RoC: Playable in Part 1 and Part 2 / WC3: TFT: On the cover, playable in 2/3 of Part 3 / Boss NPC in upcoming WoW xpack
Lore: Former paladin who betrayed homeland, now the Lich King and leader of the Scourge, the largest Undead faction. Has defeated multiple named characters in single combat. He's kinda important.

Thrall: Lore novel set between WC2 and WC3 / WC3: RoC: Playable in Prologue and Part 3 / WC3: TFT: NPC in Bonus Part 4 / Quest giver/boss NPC in WoW
Lore: Leader of the Horde, one of the largest WC organizations and a playable WoW faction. Good-ified his people and established the current Orc homeland. Don't recall he's killed anybody, still important.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 1:25:54 PM | message detail
.. I'm not sure if I understand all that but I guess he's weaker than Arthas at the least?
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2007 1:26:32 PM | message detail
MM looks like he'll be over 50% soon, which is good considering he seems to be facing three low midcarders rather than two lower midcarders and a shmup like we all assumed.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2007 1:26:55 PM | message detail
Change of subject. Who gets the lowest total votes/lowest total percentage, and what will it be? Same, but for highest.

Obviously, Link is the safe choice for highest because he's so damn powerful and there's practically nothing in his 4 pack which has any kind of strength. The only flaw there is Bidoof possibly stealing some of Link's votes (that notion makes me lol, though). Even then I see Link getting, what, 70+%?
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 1:27:47 PM | message detail
.. I'm not sure if I understand all that but I guess he's weaker than Arthas at the least?

As I said about 200 posts ago, it all depends where their strength is coming from.

If it's from WoW - I'm thinking Thrall has the advantage
If it's WC3/TFT - Arthas by a wide margin.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/4/2007 1:31:39 PM | message detail
Highest, Link. That's absolutely certain. Lowest, probably Agent J. Though maybe Nathan Hale, Wander, or Zolom?
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Lopen | Posted 9/4/2007 1:33:18 PM | message detail
If Link doesn't crack 80% in his first four pack I'm very surprised. I'd even considered 90% just looking at the utter crap in his bunch.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/4/2007 1:36:50 PM | message detail
90% is doubtful, but he's a lock to get at least 75 if not more.

~*ST*~
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2007 1:36:55 PM | message detail
If Link doesn't crack 80% in his first four pack I'm very surprised. I'd even considered 90% just looking at the utter crap in his bunch.

90%?! I understand 80%, but... I wouldn't see Link getting 90% on Edgeworth alone. That said, all 3 of Link's colleagues in that fourpack are from DS games.
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bloodhawks return | Posted 9/4/2007 1:36:59 PM | message detail
Who's going to come in 2nd after link? Bidoof? Rofl, I'm thinking this.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 1:37:50 PM | message detail
Bidoof is totally gonna stay alive

Anybody who doesn't vote Bidoof that match is a loser
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 1:38:45 PM | message detail
Link's highest percentage was on... AiAi? I'm sure he's stronger than he's ever been, but anti-votes alone will go a long way toward keeping him from touching 90%.
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Tatl | Posted 9/4/2007 1:39:40 PM | message detail
I want Bidoof and Mudkipz to win (second place) on their first rounds just for the laugh factor.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2007 1:40:12 PM | message detail
Lowest...I still think it might be Haseo. Nobody on Board 8 knew he was ("Who the **** is Haseo?!"). How are casual voters going to fare? He'll get the minimal .hack support and that's it. If there was a near-elite or NNer in there, it'd be almost indebatable.
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DpObliVion | Posted 9/4/2007 1:41:24 PM | message detail
I was gonna make a topic for people to predict who would get the lowest percentage in the first round, but I never bothered....

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swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 1:42:06 PM | message detail
If Bidoof advances, we lose.
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