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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 458

swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 8:35:41 AM | message detail
creativename's updater is 3 minutes behind the actual update, is that normal?
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:38:14 AM | message detail
Assuming the match gets 150,000 votes and KOS-MOS stays at her current percentage, what percentage of votes do Arthas/Diablo need to overcome her for second now?

With 83,322 votes still left to be cast Arthas needs 20.81% of them and Diablo needs 21.44%

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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
Xuxon | Posted 9/4/2007 8:38:42 AM | message detail
The actual updates are about 2 minutes late, so the updater is only a minute behind that.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 8:39:17 AM | message detail
The updates are late? What is this devilry? I blame Diablo.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:39:46 AM | message detail
It's normal for CN's updater to do that, but I think it's because the poll does that.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/4/2007 8:41:39 AM | message detail
Thrall was an easy pick for me. I just thought of the Sony SFF between Ratchet and Vergil since they are exclusively on one console.
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transience | Posted 9/4/2007 8:41:40 AM | message detail
KOS isn't slowing down here, and my understanding of the Tuesday Effect is that it would be occurring between 8am and 2pm. I can't even tell anything is happening here. this match is remarkably consistent.

...I think we can write off any vote rallying in a format like this unless they're going for first place.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 8:42:34 AM | message detail
"MMXcalibur | Posted 9/4/2007 10:21:52 AM | message detail
Ganondorf > Vergil is a godawful stupid pick now.............and I made it."

Aye, same here. And that also occurred to me after seeing this match. Had I known Arthas would put up this showing I probably would've given Ganondorf's four pack more consideration.
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Ago una , intereo unus
swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 8:43:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'd have Thrall advancing as well. Heck, I might have just picked him if I had known he was a Warcraft Orc.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:43:50 AM | message detail
KOS isn't slowing down here, and my understanding of the Tuesday Effect is that it would be occurring between 8am and 2pm. I can't even tell anything is happening here. this match is remarkably consistent.

THERE WASN'T ANY MAINTENANCE AUGH

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transience | Posted 9/4/2007 8:44:51 AM | message detail
I'LL MAINTAIN YOU
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 8:45:01 AM | message detail
...i don't even know what that means
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:46:33 AM | message detail
i think you want me in bed
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 8:47:08 AM | message detail
hmmm

good night
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 8:47:23 AM | message detail
maintain your composure guys gah
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ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:49:40 AM | message detail
Looking at, Arthas and Diablo keep going back and forth every now and then while KOS-MOS just keeps extending -- went right past 1700. I wouldn't even say for certain just yet that Arthas has a beast of a day vote, either. The after school vote seems more like Diablo's territory. In either case, this one seems safe.

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ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:51:23 AM | message detail
Heh. Seeing how many perfects are left after this one should be good, though!

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:55:19 AM | message detail
If Arthas actually got 2nd, well, hot damn on the perfects left.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 9:24:57 AM | message detail
I know of many schools who only ran for half of a day today nationwide (First day back to school), they would've either already gotten out or very close to doing so.
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DpObliVion | Posted 9/4/2007 9:26:02 AM | message detail
So, Arthas fought KOS-MOS a little bit, but KOS-MOS pushed through it and is gaining nicely now. I expected more of a fight.

And yeah......completely overlooked Thrall in that match.....

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Big Bob | Posted 9/4/2007 9:30:45 AM | message detail
I am glad I picked Thrall now. >_> I hadn't even heard of him before the contest, and just went with "lol warcraft" logic. Looks like it will make up for the points I lost today.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 9:31:34 AM | message detail
2k6 Snake was a whole different character than in previous years. He also did great in the day against Sonic due to his newfound powers.

Snake gained on Mega Man during the day. He lost 3% against Sonic in the day. That's not "doing great".
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 9:33:39 AM | message detail
And I have no idea if the Orc on the box shot of WarCraft III is Thrall - he bears little resemblance, so I doubt it - but if he is, or if SB decides to just give him that picture anyway (i.e. the CJ effect) that's just as iconic as the shot that Arthas has right now.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2007 9:37:11 AM | message detail
Meh, I really hope Vergil beats Thrall. I struggled with the match at first, but everyone was saying Thrall was as weak as Kerrigan, so I went with Vergil... =P

Also, I don't get this "Tuesday" effect... is it really going on right now? Basically, Arthas has no hope now besides perhaps a miraculously large after-school vote?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 9:38:21 AM | message detail
It being a Tuesday doesn't matter anymore. Not that my misleading ramblings have done much to clarify that fact. <_<

I MEAN TUESDAY
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 9:46:53 AM | message detail
Yea, another part of the problem is that most of Board 8 doesn't understand the workings of the "Tuesday Factor", which is understandable because it has nothing to do with GameFAQs at all.

The Tuesday Factor worked as such - Previously, Blizzard would take the WoW Servers offline for maintenance every Tuesday at 8 AM EST to around 2 PM EST. This would usually dump a truckload of WoW players on the WoW forums, and therefore a rally could be greatly fueled because they'd have a massive influx of users.

However, recently, Weekly Tuesday maintenance has been abolished. Now, it is actually more rare for that 6 hour downtime to occur. More frequently you'll get a "rolling restart" which basically means the servers are down for 5 minutes at most, or even no downtime at all. This negates the "Tuesday Factor" ENTIRELY.

As it turned out, there was no maintenance done today. Hence, the Tuesday Factor never existed. Only, this could not have been known until late Monday night, or even early Tuesday morning. Signs pointed to no maintenance then, and I recall mentioning it several times, maybe not in CSD, but elsewhere on B8.

It's not that "Tuesday Factor" bombed. "Tuesday Factor" never happened. At all.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/4/2007 9:59:29 AM | message detail
It is Square fans, not RPG fans... sure Ratchet will get some from them, but it will not be too significant and Square fans usually try to avoid voting anything Nintendo, unless the game was made by Square... >_>

*sigh*

At least 80% of the site likes Nintendo. At least 80% of the site likes Square. They are *not* mutually exclusive.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:07:39 AM | message detail
By the hour:

Time | Arthas | Diablo | KOS-MOS | Mega Man
01:00 | 14.27% | 15.93% | 18.91% | 50.89%
02:00 | 15.44% | 15.42% | 19.57% | 49.57%
03:00 | 16.97% | 14.61% | 19.54% | 48.87%
04:00 | 16.06% | 15.80% | 19.42% | 48.72%
05:00 | 16.99% | 14.96% | 20.33% | 47.72%
06:00 | 18.87% | 15.16% | 20.27% | 45.69%
07:00 | 18.69% | 15.22% | 17.19% | 48.90%
08:00 | 16.24% | 15.77% | 17.48% | 50.51%
09:00 | 16.67% | 14.60% | 17.91% | 50.83%
10:00 | 16.35% | 15.13% | 17.87% | 50.64%
11:00 | 16.78% | 15.62% | 17.79% | 49.81%
12:00 | 15.94% | 15.41% | 18.66% | 49.98%
13:00 | 15.37% | 15.44% | 18.35% | 50.84%

KOS-MOS stumbled a bit in the morning, but not enough to let Arthas do much. Diablo seemed to have benefited at Arthas' expense during the Power Hour(s), which is kind of weird.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:09:18 AM | message detail
Haven't really been following this...just look at the poll since the first time 5 minutes ago.

Good lord Arthas. Anyone wanna take my Arthas vs. Diablo thing at this point? Really not sure who I'd pick at this point.

Has KOS been consistent since the sun rose? Looks like it, but I'm not really sure.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:09:56 AM | message detail
Well, that answers my question!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:11:52 AM | message detail
I guess I'd still take Diablo due to him being in the name of his game and being more well-known... but Arthas/WC fans are liable to be *way* more hardcore in general, and likely more liable to rally in a one-on-one match like that (to most people, it looks like Mega Man is crushing the competition with the fight for second place being rather pointless).
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:13:16 AM | message detail
This match kinda makes me wonder why we've never seen Arthas in a contest until now.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:15:00 AM | message detail
Arthas should have been in the Villain contest instead of crappy Master Hand and Ultros.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/4/2007 10:15:57 AM | message detail
The same reason we've never seen Akuma or Mewtwo while people like Guybrush make contest after contest.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:16:36 AM | message detail
...because WarCraft has like 10 other main notable characters, Kerrigan bombed (and thus he didn't get board support), and the WC hardcore don't seem to have much of a nomination presence? A 5th seed in the Series Contest is okay, but remember that entries like Silent Hill and Suikoden matched and/or exceeded that.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:20:15 AM | message detail
Well, the Kerrigan stuff makes sense, but as far as the WarCraft front goes, Arthas is, at least in my eyes, the face of the series. Thrall coming in a rather distant 2nd. None of the other characters stack up.

Though, I suppose when you take into account last year's split bracket and the fact that WoW hadn't really ballooned for 2k5 like it has in recent years, it works out.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/4/2007 10:20:34 AM | message detail
Question for you all....

Which pick(s) are you now regretting?

My Ganondorf > Vergil pick looks doomed and for some stupid reason, I had Master Chief > Alucard in Round 2. Don't ask me....I have no clue.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:23:33 AM | message detail
Uh... *checks bracket* hahahahaha Liquid Snake > Ness? Sora > Wesker? Master Chief > Ganondorf? ...take your pick!
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:25:17 AM | message detail
Samus > Knux

Although this is less a "regret" and more of a "Wait a second, I thought I unjokify'd my bracket on Friday..." thing.

My original kneejerk bracket was awesome, Alucard made it to the finals on the greatest SFF Predator Run ever.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:25:50 AM | message detail
I regret nothing!

I do somewhat question Vincent > Zelda and Mega Man > Knuckles though...

Hey, I've got a perfect bracket thus far and Ganondorf > Thrall. I'm fine.
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 10:28:26 AM | message detail
Arthas doing well does not conclusively prove that Thrall will beat Vergil... It will be Ganondorf, not Mega Man, a lot more votes will be up for grabs.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:29:35 AM | message detail
...but Thrall won't have another midcarder Blizzard entity holding him back. If he's in any way comparable to what we're seeing out of Arthas today, he's got it in the bag.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:31:24 AM | message detail
And Mega Man isn't THAT much stronger than Ganondorf. Even if you believe he's equal to Sonic, he only beats 'dorf with 54% of the vote... and that was before Twilight Princess.
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DpObliVion | Posted 9/4/2007 10:32:27 AM | message detail
Vergil should do a bit better than KOS-MOS though, right?

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See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 10:33:04 AM | message detail
But if vergil is in any way comparable to Dante...

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Eff Dee
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:34:48 AM | message detail
If you wanna believe Vergil could beat KOS-MOS - let alone in this setting - be my guest. I'm a hardcore Vergil/DMC3 fan and I would never consider that upset. KOS-MOS thrashes him in every comparison you could make.

It's really Thrall's match to win. If he's got the strength, he'll pull it off.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2007 10:35:47 AM | message detail
But if vergil is in any way comparable to Dante...

We've seen Vergil in a contest already - and unfortunately, he's not. He's decent fodder, but fodder nonetheless.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:37:44 AM | message detail
Hopefully I'll get on the leaderboard after today because I won't be perfect for long unless Marcus proves his worth and beats Kefka.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/4/2007 10:41:44 AM | message detail
So is there any chance Arthas can get to KOS-MOS' position now or is it pretty much over?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/4/2007 10:42:35 AM | message detail
Unless Arthas starts really biting into KOS's lead and not just biting at her heels, it's pretty much over.
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