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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 458

xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:21:45 AM | message detail
I'll give that to Arthas too, he has everything going for him. That is by far the best picture he could have gotten. He might be okay if he had his Human Face pic (basically the same as today's, but non-corrupted), but if you gave him anything else, I could see recognizability tanking.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/4/2007 7:21:52 AM | message detail
Ganondorf > Vergil is a godawful stupid pick now.............and I made it.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:23:33 AM | message detail
Arthas is far more of a polarizing figure. He does have some rabid fanboys, but at the same time those fanboys, as well as just other dislike/apathy is also heavy with Arthas.

If hardcore Warcraft players loathe Arthas, it is quite clear then that Arthas' votes come mainly from non-fans, i.e. casuals.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 9/4/2007 7:23:59 AM | message detail
The other thing is, Thrall is an NPC in WoW...that should be mentioned as potential strengths.
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:25:35 AM | message detail
I wouldn't say hardcore Warcraft players loathe Arthas. Just that apathy/loathe for Arthas exists in relatively significant amounts. I've seen hardcore Warcraft players that fall in the Arthas fanboy group.

Whereas Thrall is beloved by almost all.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:25:41 AM | message detail
The thing is Thrall is an Orc, that's a signifigant picture advantage because nearly everyone knows what a WarCraft Orc looks like at least. Even if they aren't familiar with the character himself.

Uh, I am not... :p
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Mumei | Posted 9/4/2007 7:27:29 AM | message detail
Whereas Thrall is beloved by almost all.

Really?

I find that so odd. People liking him and Grom so much...

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/4/2007 7:27:33 AM | message detail
I meant that people will see an Orc, think "OK, I think that's from WarCraft" which removes the whole "where is that from?" question.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:28:19 AM | message detail
How about Vergil? Do DMC fans like or dislike him?
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Keno316 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:28:38 AM | message detail
Ahhh, nice. Wake up to see KOSMOS is still increasing and is up to 1600 in the day. She can probably get to 2000 before the afternoon. And Arthas and Diablo continue to beat on each other...with some stalls here and there...She's got this.



Great showing by Arthas though. Completely surprise that he had this much power. Now I really wish chosing 3rd and 4th did come into play.



Anyway, I say we all take a look at what Kerrigan does tomorrow before counting on Thrall. If Kerrigan gets her box art and does well tomorrow, well, then I guess we CAN say the box art does come as a strong factor.
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:29:22 AM | message detail
Whereas Thrall is beloved by almost all.

Really?

I find that so odd. People liking him and Grom so much...


I'm not saying I understand why, just saying that seems to be the case.

I personally like Thrall a great deal, but then, my opinions are greatly based off lore, which the casuals likely don't know too much about.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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TVontheRadio | Posted 9/4/2007 7:29:38 AM | message detail
Orc warchiefs have have the badass factor going for them.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 9/4/2007 7:30:17 AM | message detail
How about Vergil? Do DMC fans like or dislike him?

Like him, he has support from that fanbase at least.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 7:30:51 AM | message detail
yeah, I've heard the "lore" aspect mentioned a lot with Thrall. he's one of those "he's cool if you go out of your way to learn about him" guys. some WOW people I know think he won't be worth anything because of it.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:30:54 AM | message detail
How about Vergil? Do DMC fans like or dislike him?

Most people on the DMC board love him.
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:34:03 AM | message detail
yeah, I've heard the "lore" aspect mentioned a lot with Thrall. he's one of those "he's cool if you go out of your way to learn about him" guys. some WOW people I know think he won't be worth anything because of it.

True enough, but he should be easily recognized by those people at the very least.

Like I said, he's in game, a faction leader, quest-giver, and there's even an instance based around him.

Arthas has none of that, aside from voice clips that are either vague easter eggs you can only find if you go out of your way to listen, or an instance that 98% of the WoW users will never see. If Arthas is drawing from WoW, I would fully expect Thrall to do damage given how much more he's... well... there.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:37:34 AM | message detail
So it will be like:
Ganondorf - ALL NINTENDO VOTES = WINS
Vergil - DMC fans + most Square votes (he being badass and in a human form) + some casuals
Ratchet - Kiddies?
Thrall - Warcraft fans + some casuals + some (trying-to-act-tough) kiddies + possible small amount of Square votes

IMO
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2007 7:38:45 AM | message detail
Arthas is really impressing me here. I had no faith in him having any strength whatsoever. I didn't think what we saw with Warcraft/GTA would pass down to its characters, seeing how the name "Warcraft" is at least known enough for those who weren't fans of GTA, thus giving them a viable alternative. On the other hand, you have to be really familiar with Warcraft to know who Arthas is. But it looks like he has a solid fanbase backing him in this poll. Making me regret not taking the urge to pick Thrall at the last minute. I didn't really put much stock into Vergil, but I just picked him to get on with the bracket. I really don't put much into Vergil's performance against Sephiroth. 21% on Villian Contest Sephiroth isn't really all too impressive... Thrall definitely has a great chance to take 2nd in that one.
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transience | Posted 9/4/2007 7:42:42 AM | message detail
Like I said, he's in game, a faction leader, quest-giver, and there's even an instance based around him.

this isn't all that great, if you ask me. feel free to name me some strong NPCs that aren't villains. I can't think of anything offhand.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Djungelurban | Posted 9/4/2007 7:45:10 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure most RPG fans won't go for Vergil. I might be tapping a bit to much from my own opinions but Vergil, and Devil May Cry in general, are just stupid. You've forgotten that RPG fans also like furries (mogs, chocobos, rabites, flying squirells etc.) so I'm pretty sure Ratchet will tap into some of that fanbase. And Ganondorf too, since Zelda is almost an RPG. Basically, RPG fans will be spread out kinda evenly.
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xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:45:54 AM | message detail
Like I said, he's in game, a faction leader, quest-giver, and there's even an instance based around him.

this isn't all that great, if you ask me. feel free to name me some strong NPCs that aren't villains. I can't think of anything offhand.


Zelda? Unless you count SSB/SSBM/The CD-I games.

I see your point though. But at the same time, I think a pitfall a lot are having is apply Bliz to the save "rules" as the other characters. The uniqueness of their rally potential can somewhat allow you to bend them a bit.

I'm not saying Thrall will be some kind of powerhouse, but I think he may be able to slip by Vergil because of the dynamics of a 4-way match.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
swirIdude | Posted 9/4/2007 7:48:26 AM | message detail
You know, I picked KOS over Diablo because I thought she had a more dedicated fanbase, and it's working.

But then I picked Bomberman ahead of Phoenix. Whoops <_<
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transience | Posted 9/4/2007 7:49:49 AM | message detail
I don't disagree with the idea that Thrall has a good chance. like I said, I had him until I caved and went with the "safe" pick, which really isn't all that safe.

I also hate depending on rallying! I feel that World of Warcraft is far more popular as a game than its characters are. plus, you're talking about a game that only ~25% of the site has played. while it will certainly get a lot of those votes, it's got a bit of a ceiling.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:52:46 AM | message detail
Oh, I agree that trying to depend on rallying is annoying, because it has absolutely no consistency, it could bomb one day or soar another. But just because it's so volatile doesn't mean it can be ignored.

Also, Thrall does have WC3 for what it is worth, and Blizz won't be split up over Diablo.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:52:57 AM | message detail
Speaking of that match, is anyone else expecting Ganondorf to outdo Mega Man's percentage here? It's hard to see Vergil or Thrall racking up more than 20% apiece, and Ratchet will probably be working all day to hit double digits.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 7:53:19 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure most RPG fans won't go for Vergil. I might be tapping a bit to much from my own opinions but Vergil, and Devil May Cry in general, are just stupid. You've forgotten that RPG fans also like furries (mogs, chocobos, rabites, flying squirells etc.) so I'm pretty sure Ratchet will tap into some of that fanbase. And Ganondorf too, since Zelda is almost an RPG. Basically, RPG fans will be spread out kinda evenly.

It is Square fans, not RPG fans... sure Ratchet will get some from them, but it will not be too significant and Square fans usually try to avoid voting anything Nintendo, unless the game was made by Square... >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:55:39 AM | message detail
Looking at yesterday's match we are on pace for 142k, but since yesterday was a holiday expect it to be higher.
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Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 7:57:07 AM | message detail
Another problem with the rallying this time is that I don't think the rally attempts are driving home something critical - that the top 2 advance.

I've been seeing a lot of posts there basically mocking the rally by pointing to Mega Man's commanding lead.

In interest of making things interesting, I try to point out to them that Top 2 advance, but I'm getting the feeling that these people aren't the kind who will check back later.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 8:00:05 AM | message detail
% wise, Arthas keeps going up, KOS MOS keeps going down, and Diablo and Mega Man stall...

13 hours to go!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:00:51 AM | message detail
Yeah, but vote-wise it's KOS-MOS doing the stalling. Which is all she needs.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
bloodhawks return | Posted 9/4/2007 8:03:21 AM | message detail
This is going to be KOS-MOS's worst time for votes, as it gets later, she will get better. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Arthas gets pretty damn close before then.
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Mumei | Posted 9/4/2007 8:03:36 AM | message detail
this isn't all that great, if you ask me. feel free to name me some strong NPCs that aren't villains. I can't think of anything offhand.

Well, he is the Orc Hero you play as primarily in Reign of Chaos's Orc campaign.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
Keno316 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:06:19 AM | message detail
So, if we'd switch around Vaan and Arthas placements in the contest, how do you think Yesterday's match would have gone?
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/4/2007 8:07:39 AM | message detail
The way this contest is configured, you can get partial points in some matches and still have a decent shot at winning. It wouldn't hurt to have a decent upset later on in the contest and not to lose points in the 2nd Round and beyond.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 8:08:18 AM | message detail
lol BT's ISP

Damn internet's been cutting out on and off for the last week, and it cut out last night right before the match started and just came back on now.


Hopefully he can redeem himself from the terrible falls he took daily in 2k6. You don't let Snake take the day from you... you just don't.


2k6 Snake was a whole different character than in previous years. He also did great in the day against Sonic due to his newfound powers.

Anyways, wow @ Arthas. I fully expected Diablo to keep him down ala Rikku/Vaan. Although this is looking incredibly good for my Ganondorf > Thrall pick. Also, go KOS-MOS, defend my perfect for great justice!

Also, about Arthas only getting votes because he's on the cover of TFT..... that's the stupidest thing I've heard this contest. Non-Warcraft fans aren't going to support a random face they saw at EB over someone iconic like Mega Man. This is the legitimate strength of WoW rearing its ugly head. We saw it last year (when I correctly predicted Warcraft > GTA) and we're going to see it this year with Arthas doing this good, and Thrall spanking Vergil.

Now we just need to see Illidan in these things. I'd always pegged him to be the strongest Warcraft character, followed by Grom and Thrall.

And for those of you who aren't Warcraft savvy, *slight Warcraft 3 spoilers*


Thrall was the son of a clan leader in the Orcish horde who was captured by a human general after his father was killed. He was raised by the human in an effort to use him to eventually control the orcs. Thrall eventually escaped and found the old leader of the horde and the remnants of his father's clan. He began to embrace the ancient shamanistic culture of the orcs (before that one orc sold the race to the demons). He started breaking orcs out of the human jails and eventually lead them to another continent.

He's pretty much the respected, intelligent leader with a tragic past. Think General Leo meets Sephiroth.

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:08:26 AM | message detail
Yoshi and Knuckes still take it.
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Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 8:10:29 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Rikku

Arthas stole some Knuckles' cool votes. However, I would still pick Yoshi > Knuckles in my bracket.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:10:34 AM | message detail
Now we just need to see Illidan in these things. I'd always pegged him to be the strongest Warcraft character, followed by Grom and Thrall.

As much as I wish Illidan would be the strongest Warcraft character (nominated him), I seriously doubt it. Especially with a WotLK release.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/4/2007 8:13:07 AM | message detail
Just thinking about it, Axel is starting to worry me tomorrow.

Sure 30% on 2k6 Mega Man isn't as impressive as 30% on 2k5 Samus, but what if Frog has dropped since 2k5? Hopefully Axel's performance last year was due to the (then) recency of KH2

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:18:09 AM | message detail
I think Frog will be helped by the fact that he's (relatively) a fan favorite from a game that's still huge on this site. It's why I'm also expecting Magus to do pretty well.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 8:18:10 AM | message detail
Non-Warcraft fans aren't going to support a random face they saw at EB over someone iconic like Mega Man.

You are right. Mega Man still got the most votes per update, but that's not everyone. Some people ARE going to vote for a random face they saw at EB.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
ZFS | Posted 9/4/2007 8:18:19 AM | message detail
Haha, wow. Arthas actually managed to take the lead from Diablo, and rather easily at that. KOS-MOS looks pretty safe here, though. She's got nearly a 1700 vote lead, and that seems a bit of a tall order for Arthas, or even Diablo with the after school vote, to comeback from.

But, man, Diablo last here? Villains contest poll justified!

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:19:47 AM | message detail
Some people ARE going to vote for a random face they saw at EB.

Maybe in an AOL poll or something. Probably not on GameFAQs, especially when they are presented with three other options, one of them being Mega Man. =P
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cade | Posted 9/4/2007 8:20:35 AM | message detail
I have Megaman > Arthas as my one-two for today. Reading all these topics talking about Arthas getting 5% and the like put me in serious doubt that i'd made a horrible newbie pick but it seems that dubious honour lies with all the Diablo people now :p

KOS-MOS is a lock for second now though, no way Arthas is going to make a 1.7k comeback.
-_-
!!!
xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:22:07 AM | message detail
I had MM > Arthas too, but I knew it was an outside upset, and that KOS-MOS would almost definitely take it.

I did know though, that Diablo had no shot, and that Arthas would not flop like much of the board expected. As I've said, a 3rd Place Arthas is a victory for me. =)
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:25:33 AM | message detail
Seems like Diablo is trying to catch-up to Arthas.
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Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 8:26:27 AM | message detail
Maybe in an AOL poll or something. Probably not on GameFAQs, especially when they are presented with three other options, one of them being Mega Man. =P

Those people voting in AOL poll or others may also visit here and vote, you know? And people these days are just THAT weird... :P
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 8:27:57 AM | message detail
AOL is just a bunch of Nintendo fanboys if it were up to them Wind Waker would've destroyed Starcraft.
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Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/4/2007 8:28:06 AM | message detail
Awesome to see Arthas doing so well right now, I had a feeling when I went to bed he was going to be in 3rd by the time I woke up. Anyway, it looks like KOS-MOS has this baby all wrapped up, but with the votals being so low in comparison to yesterday, and them being initially higher at the start of this match, I'm looking for the afterschool vote to be pretty massive. I don't think it's gonna be enough for Arthas to actually beat KOS, but he's definitely going to be able to shave off quite a few votes, that or Diablo's gonna come back for 3rd, I can't decide which.

And I really wish I had Thrall > Vergil now. Thrall easily would be the strongest character if we based things solely off WoW. I still think Arthas is stronger than him thanks mainly to WC3, but Thrall is going to be no joke after what I'm seeing today, and I'm pretty damn confident he'll be stronger than Kerrigan.

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/4/2007 8:33:12 AM | message detail
If the vote-totals were higher, I'd call it. As is, that's the only thing keeping me from guaranteeing KOS-MOS a victory.

Assuming the match gets 150,000 votes and KOS-MOS stays at her current percentage, what percentage of votes do Arthas/Diablo need to overcome her for second now?
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