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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 458

JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:23:22 AM | message detail
KOS-MOS's lead is 2 short of 1400 now.

What does it need to reach for you to feel comfortable, MarioSuperstar?
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:23:29 AM | message detail
oh, yeah. the Warcraft match...
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:24:32 AM | message detail
2000, I suppose. Probably even more.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
RyanBaer | Posted 9/4/2007 2:25:11 AM | message detail
According to wow forums... its just a restart today, not gonna be down. Thats gonna hurt arthas..
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:26:51 AM | message detail
2000+? Granted, KOS-MOS is far weaker than Crono, but you're basically saying that you fear Arthas's day vote will be on the same level as Sonic? Even with another Blizzard option and another casuals option to choose?

Confidence, man!
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Janus5000 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:27:04 AM | message detail
It hurt him so much that you merely posting about it let him cut 15 votes out of KOS-MOS' lead. <_<
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:29:15 AM | message detail
A mere anomaly. If he cuts into her lead for two more updates out of the next three, then I'll concede he could be a threat.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 2:30:02 AM | message detail
"RyanBaer | Posted 9/4/2007 5:25:11 AM | message detail
According to wow forums... its just a restart today, not gonna be down. Thats gonna hurt arthas.."

For some reason that made me chuckle. Oh noes! :D
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1 of 6267 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 2:36:41 AM | message detail
I would seriously and literally ROFL if in the 5 minute restart, Arthas gains 3000 votes.

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Eff Dee
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:36:58 AM | message detail
2000+? Granted, KOS-MOS is far weaker than Crono, but you're basically saying that you fear Arthas's day vote will be on the same level as Sonic? Even with another Blizzard option and another casuals option to choose?

Confidence, man!


if there's anything in the world I wouldn't have confidence against, it's Warcraft in a character battle.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:38:26 AM | message detail
...annnnnnd BOOM goes the dynamite.

Nice recovery from KOS-MOS. Two updates after her first significant loss, she's back up higher than she was 15 minutes ago.

I'm off to bed. I expect to see KOS-MOS still having a 1000+ vote lead at the very least 8 hours from now.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/4/2007 2:39:59 AM | message detail
Oh, and LOL DIABLO for the road.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:42:29 AM | message detail
it would be so damn weird if both Diablo and Arthas actually both made a comeback.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 2:42:58 AM | message detail
I was reading some of the preliminary "support arthas" topics on the WoW forums. Half of the posts were of the "Pew Pew, I voted Megaman" or "I voted Diablo, thx" variety.

epiclulz @ what will probably be a failed vote rally.

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Eff Dee
RyanBaer | Posted 9/4/2007 2:43:38 AM | message detail
Forceful Dragon, you saw my topic >_> I'm Lurena.
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 9/4/2007 2:47:10 AM | message detail
Half of the posts were of the "Pew Pew, I voted Megaman" or "I voted Diablo, thx" variety.

As long as the votes don't go to KOS-MOS it's a success in my book...
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Go Pack Go!
cavedog0: December 2003 - August 2005
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:48:13 AM | message detail
now BOTH Arthas and Diablo are catching up. I don't like this one bit. that would be the most horrible thing to happen to her.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 2:49:44 AM | message detail
Ah. And yes, there was 1 "I voted Kos-Most" post. heh >_>

Unfortunately I cannot post with a now-frozen account.
But i'm not gonna pay anymore for WoW since i heard about SC2. I <3 WoW, but no point paying for a game that I know I'm never going to play again as soon as another game comes out.

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Eff Dee
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 2:51:02 AM | message detail
In this last update:

16.22% 15.77% 14.86% 53.15%
Arthas, Diablo, KOS-MOS, Mega Man

lol

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Eff Dee
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/4/2007 2:58:37 AM | message detail
Followed by a gain for kos-mos and then by a drop. 20 minutes have lost her 27 votes. But I do not see him keeping this pace against Kos-Mos throughout the day.

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Eff Dee
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 2:59:32 AM | message detail
I'm still worried either way..
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 9/4/2007 3:00:41 AM | message detail
Oye, I can't take this anymore. I'll see you guys when the kiddies wake up...
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Go Pack Go!
cavedog0: December 2003 - August 2005
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 3:03:49 AM | message detail
I know how you feel MarioSuperstar. I'm pulling for KOS-MOS, and even though she's ahead of them right now I won't feel relaxed until much later on. *Gulp*
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1 of 6267 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2007 3:08:37 AM | message detail
the afterschool vote won't be kind to her. she better make the best of this time so she can at least go equal during the evening.
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Today: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
Tomorrow: Samus > Frog - Vote: Frog. Points: 4/4
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 3:11:34 AM | message detail
Last time I checked she was up by 1394 votes. She really needs to push harder and put more distance between herself and Arthas. I'm just glad they're splitting votes amongst themselves.
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1 of 6267 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2007 3:12:18 AM | message detail
The before-school vote has started, yes? Give it three hours and hopefully KOS-MOS can maintain her lead through, and then following that, hopefully KOS-MOS can build her lead a little more before the afterschool vote. I'm just hoping, though...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/4/2007 3:14:15 AM | message detail
1399, that's cool.
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1 of 6267 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/4/2007 3:16:22 AM | message detail
Tomorrow will be having the same exact situation as today.

Frog getting 2nd place and building night leads before Axel destroy him with the day votes.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/4/2007 3:18:12 AM | message detail
...Dude, Arthas...
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doo doo doo I got no sig
Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2007 3:19:49 AM | message detail
Major question here.

Is there a way to figure out the prediction percentage for getting the ENTIRE match correct? Obviously we can tell for the first match looking at the score distributions, but that's because it's only Day 1...


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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/4/2007 3:27:07 AM | message detail
I took Arthas to get second here and if he does somehow manage to do this, I'll ejaculate in all your faces. >_>
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/4/2007 3:37:42 AM | message detail
holy **** great update for Arthas. Did he just cut into KOS-MOS' lead?
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/4/2007 3:52:29 AM | message detail
I just realized how powerful the After school vote will be to Arthas and Diablo, maybe something interesting can happen, bit I guess it's just me thinking to positive over my bracket :P

come on Diablo, don't let Arthas run away from you....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
cyko | Posted 9/4/2007 4:25:41 AM | message detail
Arthas is really trying to cut into the lead, but KOS-MOS is hanging in there. Arthas and Diablo have spent the past 40 minutes holding steady with each other. thanks goodness they are holding each other back.


this match makes me feel better about my CATS and Ocelot pick.


i'm REALLY wishing i had stuck with CATS at this point.

face CATS + Peach & Meta-Knight splitting Nintendo votes = CATS in 2nd place!

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
voltch | Posted 9/4/2007 4:31:25 AM | message detail
diablo cutting arthsas's lead and arthas get's closer to KOS-MOS,looks like we have a match on our hands.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2007 4:52:02 AM | message detail
It would be awesome if it was a three-way nailbiter at the end.

Again... Anybody know how to calculate the overall (perfect score) prediction percentage for each match?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/4/2007 4:56:50 AM | message detail
I have Diablo today, but I love Arthas to death and find this whole thing funny as hell. I hope Arthas comes back.

I still don't quite get why KOS-MOS is doing this well, either. I get that she'd be getting killed if this were a one on one and that Arthas and Diablo are holding one another back, but it's a surprise to me. And the thought that Arthas would take second place if KOS-MOS weren't there is awesome.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:11:27 AM | message detail
uhhh....uhhhhhhhh

well, normally I'd say KOS is safe, but rallying is going to make this lead disappear if it exists. it's like a normal 1300 vote lead.

uhhh.... I said last night that I was more scared of Arthas than I was Diablo, and I might it. great pick by our guest today.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:12:40 AM | message detail
oh, cool, a ~40 vote gain by KOS. man, I can't say it enough -- we need to get Arthas into a traditional character battle.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/4/2007 5:17:05 AM | message detail
we need to get Arthas into a traditional character battle.

with the FACE.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:18:09 AM | message detail
oh, and if this is anything like last year, KOS will actually do better in a few hours until school lets out. of course, that probably won't be true because AHHHH IT'S A TUESDAY, but usually the night vote does well while people are in school.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Tediz247 | Posted 9/4/2007 5:20:31 AM | message detail
Whoa, what happened overnight? Diablo, you suck. Glad I didn't pick you. I'm a bit worried for KOS-MOS though. And yeah, we do need to get Arthas into a traditional character battle, especially with his own WoW expansion coming out soon.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/4/2007 5:21:29 AM | message detail
Wow, I guess we know how strong a Blizzard character is when a box art picture is used instead of some random artwork.

Diablo has let me down, unless some massive comeback happens I'll just have to settle for that one point.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Who Cares? | Posted 9/4/2007 5:37:01 AM | message detail
I've very interested in seeing how the day vote plays out. KOS-MOS has simply been on cruise control the whole match and it looks like she'll get her lead over 1500. Honestly, I can't see Arathas making that huge push, he's sharing too many of the votes with Diablo for me to feel worried about stealing 2nd from KOSy right now.

Should KOS-MOS hold on like expected, I'm really interested to see how the prediction percentage looks for this, since the KOS-MOS is above Mega Man in the poll options! We'll really find out if people were paying attention to 1st Place > 2nd Place setup then.
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/4/2007 5:38:26 AM | message detail
A lot of perfect brackets are going to die, regardless of who takes second.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 5:45:30 AM | message detail
GTA's highest lead was 337 and Warcraft won by 1116 though it peaked at 1510, so without the Tuesday vote I think this match is almost over
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:48:52 AM | message detail
I think comparing GTA to KOS is a mistake, though.. the fact that Arthas went dead-even during that 7-8 hour suggests that we're going to see a battle once the afterschool vote comes. also, I think rallying tends to stop when you're actually ahead. not that IT'S A TUESDAY WTF is going to definitely matter, but if I was doing it I'd chill out once I got a lead.

plus, if you look at the results without knowing the format of the contest, you wouldn't know that Arthas is in competition. it looks like Mega Man's trashing his ass here. basically, the only people that would rally are the few people that actually know the contest format -- basically, board 8.

also, we've got a pretty low vote total compared to yesterday here. if it's all loaded into the afterschool vote...
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:49:53 AM | message detail
and that's three straight cuts for Arthas, there.

it begins
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2007 5:52:18 AM | message detail
How bad will the school vote today because where I live school will be on only for one hour.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 2: Mega Man > KOS-MOS Points: 4/4
transience | Posted 9/4/2007 5:53:07 AM | message detail
for whatever it's worth, KOS had 67.98% against Amy Rose at this point and finished the match at 65.43%. Amy probably has a pretty good day vote given the other Sonic characters.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
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