GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 456
| Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:42:45 AM | message detail |
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All Rikku's doing now is stalling, sadly... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| BDawg | Posted 9/3/2007 11:42:57 AM | message detail |
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It's always fun to read through overnight posts with hindsight, and see
people screaming "the sky is falling" and "impenetrable barrier" and
know it was all wrong. But yeah, if Vaan can't break 10% against upper
midcarders, I fear what level some of the uber fodder will reach
against NNers. --- Should I start running now? |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 11:43:39 AM | message detail |
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At this hour an 800 and increasing lead is usually a safe win in a
regular poll, this is a fourway which means that it's harder to
comeback from. Rikku has to gain about 80 votes in each hour from now
on if she wants to win, something that is not impossible, but very
unlikely. About the next match, Yoshi VS Knuckles should be close, and
it will be interesting to see if Knuckles legendary day vote will once
again make him go ahead of another character. Personally I want to see
who is the fourth opponent in that match before I say who I think is
the favourite, but this is a very impressive match for Yoshi, no doubt
about that. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 11:45:16 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, Yoshi jumped too far ahead, but for Vaan still being in the poll
it's still tough to believe Knuckles is struggling for second like
this. The theory about SFF possibly helping is very intriguing though. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:45:49 AM | message detail |
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So you're saying we've been looking at this backwards where SFF
doesn't weaken both characters, but strengthens the stronger one. It does hurt Vaan, unequivocally, but it *might* be benefiting Rikku. I'll do some quick math, with the following assumptions: Poll Values: 37% Yoshi 27% Knuckles 27% Rikku 09% Vaan Whole numbers are just easier to work with. SFF: Rikku/Vaan has 5% of SFF. That is, there are 14%+ people who like Vaan more than Knuckles and Yoshi. The + could be another 5%, 10%, whatever - those are the people that also like Rikku more than Vaan and would be expected to even if they didn't have the same fanbase. And then there's 5% above and beyond the + that like Rikku more than Vaan abnormally, and would *not* be expected to if they didn't share a fanbase. Percentages: Rikku picks up 66% of Vaan's voters if he was replaced. This is similar to the percentage of Sephiroth voters that went to Cloud following Seph's ouster in the Battle Royale (71%). Yoshi gets 22% and Knuckles 12%. When giving back to the nonaligned character (let's call him Nonal), Yoshi gives 50% and Rikku and Knuckles give 25% apiece. Okay, now for math. First we divvy up the remaining Vaan voters according to the above. Rikku: 22% core + 5% SFF + 5.94% Vaan Knuckles: 27% core + 1.08% Vaan Yoshi: 37% core + 1.98% Vaan Combine core and Vaan: Rikku: 27.94% combo + 5% SFF Knuckles: 28.08% combo Yoshi: 38.98% combo Now, Rikku loses her SFF (because those people do *not* abnormally prefer her to Nonal) *and* her share of Nonal's votes: Rikku: 27.94% combo + 5% SFF - 2.25% Knuckles: 28.08% combo - 2.25% Yoshi: 38.98% combo - 4.5% Resolved: Rikku 25.69% Knuckles: 25.83% Yoshi: 34.48% Nonal: 14% Rikku, who was tied with Vaan in, loses to Knuckles with Nonal in. This is very sensitive to SFF and percentage distribution, but I think this is a reasonable scenario in which Rikku does worse with Vaan replaced by someone who does not eat into her fanbase. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/3/2007 11:46:14 AM | message detail |
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Yoshi bleeding % doesn't make him pathetic, it just means that the
voters who favor him come out in numbers at the start of a poll. If you want to see a pathetic performance, check out Halo vs. Castlevania. --- Once I was human. Now I am far more. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:47:20 AM | message detail |
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Magus was only able to get 1000 on Knuckles back in 2k5 and I would expect him to have a stronger night vote than Rikku. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 1: Yoshi > Knuckles Points: 0/0 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/3/2007 11:47:48 AM | message detail |
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The most pathetic contest performance has to be MC/Felix, doesn't it? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:48:00 AM | message detail |
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The theory about SFF possibly helping is very intriguing though. It actually makes no sense. Put Link vs Cloud and Link gets 54%. Put Link vs Cloud vs Ganondorf and you have Cloud with 46%, Ganon with 10% and Link with 44%. SFF didn't help Link at all. --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| Kratos_42 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:48:33 AM | message detail |
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Halo vs. Castlevania. I was one of the very few locals here that was vocal in support of Castlevania that time, and Simon is going to beat the odds once more. --- He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. |
| jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 11:49:13 AM | message detail |
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I was one of the very few locals here that was vocal in support of Castlevania that time Hi. --- Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975 |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/3/2007 11:49:19 AM | message detail |
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I'm really, really thinking about downloading Firefox. I'm going to
need it so I don't have to see hochiminh's posts if I'm sticking around
here... --- Once I was human. Now I am far more. |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:49:34 AM | message detail |
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Magus was only able to get 1000 on Knuckles back in 2k5 and I would expect him to have a stronger night vote than Rikku. That, plus there really isn't a second night vote. Back in 2005, the poll ended at 3:00 am. Now it ends at 12:00. Big difference. Remember, Crono did nothing against Sonic during the "second night vote" --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/3/2007 11:50:37 AM | message detail |
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And I still can't believe I took Knuckles to win today...jesus. That's
an error I'd have made in 2005, where I took Kratos over Alucard
without a second's thought (and Kerrigan over VV, but I actually
debated that one >_>). --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:51:04 AM | message detail |
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It actually makes no sense. Put Link vs Cloud and Link gets 54%. Put
Link vs Cloud vs Ganondorf and you have Cloud with 46%, Ganon with 10%
and Link with 44%. SFF didn't help Link at all. That's not what I'm saying. If Vaan was removed, Rikku would almost certainly be in second (and I might be presenting my SFF theory in terms of Yoshi SFFing Knuckles). If Vaan was replaced, then Rikku loses those voters that abnormally prefer her, which *might* cancel out the extra share of the vote she would get from the transition from Vaan to his replacement. Read a bit more carefully, please. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 11:51:33 AM | message detail |
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I actually remember the poll ending at midnight back in 2005 Summer. --- Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles. Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 11:52:32 AM | message detail |
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RPGuy is definitely on the right track with the situation between
Rikku/Vaan actually helping Rikku IMO. If you replaced Vaan with just
about any decent midcarder, her chances of getting second would dwindle
then. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MMXcalibur | Posted 9/3/2007 11:52:50 AM | message detail |
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With Rikku doing so well today, it gives me great hope that Zidane can
place 2nd in the 1st round and Vivi making it to the Quarterfinals with
Dante. Yeah, I know...."one less bracket to worry about"....har har.... --- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0) |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:54:02 AM | message detail |
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It actually makes no sense. Put Link vs Cloud and Link gets 54%. Put
Link vs Cloud vs Ganondorf and you have Cloud with 46%, Ganon with 10%
and Link with 44%. SFF didn't help Link at all. That's because you're looking at it wrong. While Yoshi and Knuckles have to worry about getting their votes taken away from 3 characters Rikku only has to worry about her votes being taken away from 2 characters because she is stealing back her otherwise stolen votes from Vaan. Sorry if that doesn't make sense. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 1: Yoshi > Knuckles Points: 0/0 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 11:54:05 AM | message detail |
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I'd be comparing Zidane with Vaan before Rikku..... --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:56:32 AM | message detail |
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Ohhh, I tihnk I understand now! So what's that mean for tomorrow. We
have a similar situation. Tomorrow, MM = Yoshi. Arthas = Vaan. Diablo =
Rikku. KOS-MOS = Knuckles --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 11:56:41 AM | message detail |
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Also, about that Link/Cloud/Ganon example...the only comment I'll make
on it is that there's no way Ganon gets 10% against Link AND Cloud. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 11:56:44 AM | message detail |
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I thought Vivi in the quarters was a decent upset, and it's looking
even better after this match. Even if Balthier is more popular than
Vaan, he won't do much to stop Vivi, an established fan favorite, from
leaching votes. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ZFS | Posted 9/3/2007 11:57:42 AM | message detail |
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Also, about that Link/Cloud/Ganon example...the only comment I'll
make on it is that there's no way Ganon gets 10% against Link AND Cloud. Haha. I was thinking the same thing. --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/3/2007 11:58:46 AM | message detail |
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I have to disagree. Replace Vaan and Rikku does worse, certainly, but
Yoshi and Knuckles fall even more than her in that scenario. Yoshi and Knuckles already lose the Square vote to Rikku, adding in Vaan hardly hurts them at all (only the Vaan> Yoshi/Knuckles> Rikku people). Add in a completely new fanbase though, and they drop considerably. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 11:58:57 AM | message detail |
| I do think that Balthier's going to fight with
Vivi much more than Vaan fought with Rikku. If they go close to even,
it's hard to really say the SFF went one way or another and would hurt
them both. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/3/2007 12:02:31 PM | message detail |
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I do think that Balthier's going to fight with Vivi much more than
Vaan fought with Rikku. If they go close to even, it's hard to really
say the SFF went one way or another and would hurt them both. That would be great for my Dante > Leon pick! --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:03:10 PM | message detail |
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Ohhh, I tihnk I understand now! So what's that mean for tomorrow. We
have a similar situation. Tomorrow, MM = Yoshi. Arthas = Vaan. Diablo =
Rikku. KOS-MOS = Knuckles Diablo will edge out KOS-MOS and Arthas gets like 5%. I'm going to need to see a few more matches before I believe this though. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 1: Yoshi > Knuckles Points: 0/0 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:03:23 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi and Knuckles already lose the Square vote to Rikku, adding in
Vaan hardly hurts them at all (only the Vaan> Yoshi/Knuckles>
Rikku people). Add in a completely new fanbase though, and they drop
considerably. Quite true. And, in my example, Knux/Yoshi benefited little from Vaan being removed and were hurt by Nonal being added...but it wasn't *quite* enough to overcome Rikku's SFF woes. That is an entirely plausible scenario, though, and could be achieved by changing the percentage scale on Vaan's former voters to favour Rikku more (ie, saying there aren't as many Vaan > Knux/Yoshi > Rikku people). --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Astargoth | Posted 9/3/2007 12:06:08 PM | message detail |
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As far as Yoshi's percentage fall is concerned I think the fact that he won is at least partially responsible. People check results first, see that Knux is in trouble while Yoshi is a lock, and vote accordingly. |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/3/2007 12:06:52 PM | message detail |
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I doubt a lot of people do that. They're more inclined to choose their favorite and click the vote button. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 12:08:21 PM | message detail |
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http://youtube.com/watch?v=0zo93CRhm0k this is an accurate depiction of today's matchup --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:08:22 PM | message detail |
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What IS the popular opinion for Diablo/KOSMOS anyway? Personally, I see KOSMOS squeaking by. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 12:09:13 PM | message detail |
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Diablo/KOS-MOS is almost 50/50 last I checked --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 12:09:15 PM | message detail |
| Assuming this theory's true, it could help Diablo
a little...though I wonder how much. I'd take Diablo > KOS-MOS
head-to-head, but Diablo did horrible in the Villain Contest poll once
the contest ended -- he finished last, behind both CATS and Kefka (with
Sephiroth already in the poll). With a Noble Niner already being in the
poll and this new theory hardly being proven, Diablo still doesn't look
too hot. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/3/2007 12:10:44 PM | message detail |
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Mascot fights are awesome. I remember when Stanley C. Panther (Florida
Panthers) beat up some bee mascot (Tampa Bay Lighting) in the stands
near where I was sitting. Amazing. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:12:30 PM | message detail |
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Plus, there's the question if Diablo can actually SFF Arthas. Same
company and all, but vastly different games. And the theory relies on
the Same Fanbase Factor votes (ie, extra votes going to the stronger character) outnumbering the Split Fanbase Factor votes (ie, extra votes going to the weaker character). --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:14:02 PM | message detail |
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On second thought, extra votes going to the weaker character isn't the best way to put it, but...oh well. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Kratos_42 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:14:25 PM | message detail |
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I have KOSy. --- He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 12:15:31 PM | message detail |
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eh, I hope KOS-MOS can win at least. --- Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles. Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man. |
| Kratos_42 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:15:36 PM | message detail |
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Plus, there's the question if Diablo can actually SFF Arthas. Same
company and all, but vastly different games. And the theory relies on
the Same Fanbase Factor votes (ie, extra votes going to the stronger
character) outnumbering the Split Fanbase Factor votes (ie, extra votes
going to the weaker character). A lot of the time we say SFF, we mean one or the other. We should start uncapitalizing one of them, for easier arguing. --- He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:16:56 PM | message detail |
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Are Diablo sites even going to link to the match? I've heard very little in terms of rallying. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/3/2007 12:16:58 PM | message detail |
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"A lot of the time we say SFF, we mean one or the other." That's because the vast majority of the matches in the past have been 1 on 1, meaning that there was no difference between the two. --- Once I was human. Now I am far more. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 12:19:30 PM | message detail |
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doesn't look like that are linking.. someone remind me which matches they linked in, anyway. --- Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles. Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 12:21:14 PM | message detail |
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Diabo/Ridley, M. Bison, Kefka, and halfway into his match against Sonic. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Kratos_42 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:22:24 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, but the Xenosaga sites will surely be linking! ...Ah, I mean the ones that aren't pr0n/religious philosophy-related. Though I do suppose that would be effective. --- He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/3/2007 12:23:56 PM | message detail |
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Oh, good. KOS/Diablo is 50-50. I thought for a sec my Diablo pick was another completely ****tarded one -_- I haven't been following the build-up much this year. I was also determined not to change my bracket, because it cost me a leaderboard place despite being at worst -4 (I think) until Snake went insane. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| Starion | Posted 9/3/2007 12:24:26 PM | message detail |
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Why would they though? They must be tired of rallying by now (plus it
is annoying for their site regulars). Not to mention that Diablo is an
old game. --- 100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego |
| MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/3/2007 12:25:24 PM | message detail |
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I'm trying to explain to my brother that Vivi is stronger than either DK or Ridley can someone help me out here. --- "To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 12:28:04 PM | message detail |
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don't bother. --- Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles. Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man. |
