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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 456

transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:16:19 AM | message detail
So roughly what time would we expect Rikku to start stalling and cutting into the lead, if at all?

stalling? maybe 8pm. cutting into the lead? about 11. (EST)

basically, this is all day vote and Knuckles is going to be up a thousand votes before Rikku can do anything about it.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 9:17:05 AM | message detail
Yeah, I can't see anything other than Knuckles now, was trying to gauge exactly how much of a lead he'd have if and when voting patterns change
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:17:53 AM | message detail
Question!

01. 0007 - (6) Frog vs (3) Master Chief (2004 Characters Round 2)
02. 0027 - (2) Princess Peach vs (3) Jill Valentine (2006 Characters Round 2)
02. 0027 - (3) Ryu Hayabusa vs (14) Jill Valentine (2004 Characters Round 1)
04. 0034 - (5) Samus Aran vs (1) Sonic the Hedgehog (2002 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
05. 0038 - (4) Metal Gear Solid vs (5) Final Fantasy Tactics (2004 Games Round 2)
06. 0056 - Link vs Cloud Strife vs Solid Snake vs Sephiroth (2006 Characters Battle Royale Day 3)
07. 0093 - (6) Frog vs (11) Liquid Snake (2004 Characters Round 1)
08. 0115 - (1) Mario vs (5) Crono (2002 Characters Semifinal)
09. 0137 - (1) Mario vs (4) Crono (2003 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
10. 0143 - (6) Donkey Kong vs (11) Duck Hunt (2004 Games Round 1)
11. 0171 - (16) StarCraft vs (5) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (2004 Games Sweet Sixteen)
12. 0277 - (1) Mario vs (2) Cloud Strife (2002 Characters)
13. 0362 - (1) Chrono Trigger vs (6) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
14. 0373 - (16) StarCraft vs (1) Halo (2004 Games Round 1)
15. 0534 - (2) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (16) StarCraft (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
16. 0650 - (13) Magus vs (12) Ganondorf (2003 Characters Round 2)
17. 0742 - (1) Mega Man vs (1) Sonic the Hedgehog (2005 Characters Quarterfinal)
18. 0968 - (3) Tommy Vercetti vs (6) Donkey Kong (2003 Characters Round 2)
19. 0987 - (7) Sephiroth vs (6) Mega Man (2002 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
20. 1088 - (9) Kingdom Hearts vs (8) Soul Calibur (2004 Games Round 1)
21. 1116 - (5) WarCraft vs (4) Grand Theft Auto (2006 Series Round 1)
22. 1149 - (5) Vincent Valentine vs (2) Squall Leonhart (2005 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
23. 1196 - (1) Solid Snake vs (3) Bowser (2005 Characters Quarterfinal)
24. 1320 - (4) Donkey Kong vs (12) Aya Brea (2002 Characters Round 2)
25. 1418 - (1) Samus Aran vs (1) Tifa Lockhart (2006 Characters Quarterfinal)

Does this match make this list? Or is Knuckles coming on too strong?
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Mustache...and green...
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therealmnm | Posted 9/3/2007 9:19:18 AM | message detail
Speaking of that... do we count close matches between 3rd and 4th place in those things?
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/3/2007 9:20:10 AM | message detail
And you guys are holding on dearly to that whole Mega Man will SFF Yoshi thing, huh?

You acted like we've pulled that scenario out of the sky. We've already seen it happen.
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Feel my truth.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:21:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, I was going to ask what everyone thought about that. It made sense to put Snake/Sephiroth on the list since it counted for points, and same for Knuckles/Rikku if it ends up close. But 3rd/4th is only for bragging rights, so I don't know.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 9:21:44 AM | message detail
Don't bother responding to that guy >.>

I assume this is directed to me as you may have never seen me posting in stats topic before so it is natural to think that I don't know anything. Uh oh, never mind. I used to be ignored anyway and probably still is. :p
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 9:23:03 AM | message detail
considering that Rikku is going 50/50 with Knuckles again, this match should make the list. I dunno, maybe somewhere between DK vs TC and Aya Brea VS DK
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Who Cares? | Posted 9/3/2007 9:24:14 AM | message detail
Speaking of that... do we count close matches between 3rd and 4th place in those things?

We shouldn't, 3rd place means nothing in that aspect!
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:24:24 AM | message detail
I hesitate to even call this a regular character battle, honestly. I'd keep it off any lists just because you're comparing apples and oranges.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 9:24:25 AM | message detail
Does this match make this list?

Very likely.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Samurai7 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:26:37 AM | message detail
I hesitate to even call this a regular character battle, honestly. I'd keep it off any lists just because you're comparing apples and oranges.

I agree. These matches are totally different situations, doesn't make sense for them to be on the same list to me. Link v Cloud v Snake v Spehiroth shouldn't even be there IMO
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:26:52 AM | message detail
come on, Knuckles. pull away so I don't have to worry about losing my first point on the first match.
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Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Not sure yet.
Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:28:56 AM | message detail
I like comparing apples and oranges! For instance, this match *confirms* Mario over Sephiroth.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
therealmnm | Posted 9/3/2007 9:29:58 AM | message detail
You acted like we've pulled that scenario out of the sky. We've already seen it happen.

Yes, and we've also seen Yoshi hold strong against Mario, Bowser, Luigi and co in a multi-poll. You're acting like Mega Man being in the poll won't affect Knuckles in the slightest.
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:31:32 AM | message detail
it also confirms Yuna > Ganondorf/Luigi!

..it ALSO confirms Ganondorf/Luigi > Yuna!
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 9:32:20 AM | message detail
Of course Mega Man affects everybody in the poll. It's just that we've seen Mega Man affect Yoshi abnormally bad. Not that Knuckles is likely to finish ahead of him anymore (or arguably ever was), but the logic is still there.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 9/3/2007 9:36:05 AM | message detail
Does this match make this list? Or is Knuckles coming on too strong?

It will, Rikku will cut into Knuckles lead a bit once the night vote starts. I expect this match to be on that list.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/3/2007 9:36:26 AM | message detail

Yes, and we've also seen Yoshi hold strong against Mario, Bowser, Luigi and co in a multi-poll. You're acting like Mega Man being in the poll won't affect Knuckles in the slightest.


First point is irrelevant seeing as it has nothing to do with Knuckles or Megaman.
Megaman being in the poll won't affect Knuckles seeing as Megaman showed no hints of SFFing Sonic whereas Megaman has already SFF'd Yoshi, badly.
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Feel my truth.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:38:04 AM | message detail
If Mega Man affects Yoshi and Yoshi affects Knuckles to a point then it looks like I've lost my first point in round 2.

Come on Mega make Yoshi your Vaan.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 1: Yoshi > Knuckles Points: 0/0
Yesmar | Posted 9/3/2007 9:41:01 AM | message detail
I hesitate to even call this a regular character battle, honestly. I'd keep it off any lists just because you're comparing apples and oranges.

I agree with this as well. I don't think any of this year's matches or the Battle Royale should make any All-Time Lists except for votals.
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transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:44:15 AM | message detail
vote totals are the last thing that they should make a list for - four characters vs. two? of course they're going to get more votes.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
therealmnm | Posted 9/3/2007 9:46:53 AM | message detail
I'm not going to argue seeing how we have a month before we find out. But you guys keep holding on to hope of Mega Man SFFing Yoshi for the Knux win if you want.
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/3/2007 9:48:14 AM | message detail
I think MM will make Yoshi look worse than usual.

But the difference between Knuckles and Yoshi in this poll is just too great for that to matter
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/3/2007 9:48:34 AM | message detail
The lunch vote is kicking in!
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caps
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:49:51 AM | message detail
Top 25 Votals distribution:

2002 Characters - 1 (Mario/Cloud)
2003 Characters - 2 (Cloud/Link, Mario/Crono)
2004 Games - 0
2004 Characters - 0
2005 Villains - 0
2005 Characters - 0
2006 Series - 8
2006 Characters - 14

It can't dominate that much more than 2006 did. I think I'm going to update the three lists I keep track of (votals, closest matches by vote difference, lowest prediction percentage), even though the format arguably favours this contest in all three of them.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/3/2007 9:52:48 AM | message detail
Knuckles really doesn't want to give Rikku an edge.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 9:55:43 AM | message detail
Looks like I've missed a buttload of action. Can someone tell me when Knuckles managed to gain the lead back?
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 9:55:55 AM | message detail
I'm not going to argue seeing how we have a month before we find out. But you guys keep holding on to hope of Mega Man SFFing Yoshi for the Knux win if you want.

I gave up that hope hours ago. If we remove Rikku and Vaan, assume Yoshi and Knuckles finish with 36% and 28% (being generous towards knuckles here), and adjust the percentages to account for a straight match, Yoshi beats Knuckles with 59%. That's pre-boost Snake worthy. Even with SFF playing a role here (I feel it is), what chance does Knuckles have to reverse something like this, especially since, before today, he's never been tested against anyone with a remote chance to bring SFF into play?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 9:58:08 AM | message detail
yeah, Yoshi should and will certainly be the favourite in round 2. it's not a lock that Yoshi advances though. each match here is unique.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 9:59:44 AM | message detail
In a format like this, something tells me Yoshi won't have to worry about Mega Man as much as he usually would.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 10:00:28 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not calling for Knuckles > Yoshi anymore -- today's just too big of a gap if Mega/Yoshi can still be applied to the next round. All I'm predicting now is that Yoshi and Knuckles should be a lot more comparable next round.
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jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 10:00:44 AM | message detail
Looks like I've missed a buttload of action. Can someone tell me when Knuckles managed to gain the lead back?

Nearly two hours ago
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 10:02:18 AM | message detail
Nearly two hours ago

Thanks! So I suppose the fabled Sega Day Vote was a factor here after all. Good game anyways Rikku. You made the first match something else.

Now let's see if Vaan can break 10% >_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 10:03:41 AM | message detail
Would'nt have thought so, he only crossed 9% about the time Knuckles moved into second
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/3/2007 10:05:27 AM | message detail
Well then that's pathetic, cause he'll be way near the end in stats rankings.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Buzzup | Posted 9/3/2007 10:11:14 AM | message detail
I don't see why people are al suddenly hopping off the Knuckles>Yoshi bandwagon, sure, it's less likely than 24 hours ago, but it was always an upset pick to begin with, and we saw what Mega Man did to Yoshi 2 years ago, what's to say he won't do it again?
I'll ride this wagon to the bitter end baby!
charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2007 10:11:54 AM | message detail
There isn't going to be an x-stats this year, at least I don't see how we can.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 1: Yoshi > Knuckles Points: 0/0
jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 10:13:05 AM | message detail
It seems we have some anomaly at the 500 vote stage
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 10:13:07 AM | message detail
Those of us that were on that upset-train probably didn't expect Yoshi to have nearly 10% more than Knuckles more than halfway through today's match.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/3/2007 10:15:50 AM | message detail
With higher votals (influx of younger generation that are new to gaming) , older gaming icons like Crono, Mega Man, Serge and etc may seriously get hurt a little bit. Still hoping for Vincent to upset Crono.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 10:16:46 AM | message detail
Upset? It looked like the popular pick to me...
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 10:18:43 AM | message detail
I'm still confident about Mega Man > Knuckles. not as confident as I used to be, but I still think it can happen.
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Today: Yoshi > Knuckles - Vote: Not sure yet.
Tomorrow: Mega Man > KOS-MOS - Vote: Mega Man.
jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 10:18:52 AM | message detail
It seems we have some anomaly at the 500 vote stage

Never mind
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 10:19:32 AM | message detail
I seriously doubt Megs > Knux right now....but for my bracket's sake...I hope I'm wrong.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 10:23:06 AM | message detail
If Knuckles is on the receiving end of an SFF beating against Yoshi, how will he fare much better against Mega Man and Yoshi? Even if MM hurts Yoshi more, it wouldn't make sense to assume Knux would get away clean, especially when given this evidence. Even still, Yoshi will still be in the match, and will still probably take some of Knuckles's votes after Mega Man is done slapping them both around. If not for the new format already giving us surprises on the first day, I'd call him toast right now.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/3/2007 10:23:30 AM | message detail
"I agree. These matches are totally different situations, doesn't make sense for them to be on the same list to me. Link v Cloud v Snake v Spehiroth shouldn't even be there IMO"

QFT
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Once I was human. Now I am far more.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/3/2007 10:29:51 AM | message detail
Still confident in Megaman > Knuckles. Every time I feel like jumping off the bandwagon, I just look here!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2121
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Feel my truth.
Buzzup | Posted 9/3/2007 10:31:11 AM | message detail
Saying Knuckles is being SFF'd by Yoshi makes even less sense than Soma being SFF'd by Snake, by is it that the first match always has these crazy SFF allegations.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 10:33:32 AM | message detail
Knuckles is still behind Yoshi's appearance against Mega Man by over 4% for today's match, and is currently behind Yoshi by nearly 10%. Knuckles isn't looking too hot next round, Mega/Yoshi or not.
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