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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 456

Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:34:21 AM | message detail
Absolutely I take Rikku to finish second next round if she gets past Knuckles. For the same reason I took Knuckles to finish second. Yoshi's only doing a little better than I expected anyway. (And Rikku's only doing a little worse than I thought Knuckles was gonna do, for that matter)
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:34:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, could Yuna do even better this year now?

Speaking of which, we're finally getting a sample of this format...though none of these characters directly relate to him, does anybody feel anything different about MC?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:36:18 AM | message detail
I don't understand... am I supposed to feel better or worse about MC because of this?

I guess I feel better because votals are up and the guy I figured would have a pretty solid fanbase is kicking ass.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:37:48 AM | message detail
Yuna was brought up, made me think of MC...just wondering if getting a taste of blood from this contest made any newly-differing opinions about the most controversial character in our bracket.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
linkhatesganon | Posted 9/3/2007 2:39:36 AM | message detail
Do you really think Knuckles will take 2nd spot? I hope it happens the same as Crono vs. Sonic last year.

Oh, yeah, Yoshi has almost exactly the same percentage as I predicted!! (37.23%)
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Onimimi's films rules!
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:45:08 AM | message detail
Oh and by solid I meant "devoted" I guess. Although I kinda expected Rikku and Knuckles to also have devoted fanbases, really. But I do love these high vote totals for MC.

And by the way, this is about when Knuckles started showing signs of life against Magus, and when Sonic started pulling away from Ryu. He needs to start moving now. Though looking at the poll, it seems like he is doing just that. Pretty sure Knuckles has this under control, now.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:47:26 AM | message detail
Oooh, they're back to trading blows. Meh. Probably about time to go to bed and wake up to Knuckles having a growing lead... again.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/3/2007 2:57:33 AM | message detail
Aaaaand....Rikku passes Knuckles's highest lead.
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caps
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:58:25 AM | message detail
Course right when I say that Rikku stops his stalling and starts beating him down some more.

Well, whatever, we'll see I guess. I'm putting the mark for Rikku to beat at 700 votes to beat Knuckles. Let's see if she can do it! Go Rikku!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:58:49 AM | message detail
She's got about an hour left, and judging by the last few updates, she's trying to make the most of it.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
greatone10 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:59:30 AM | message detail
Weren't vote totals at an all time high last year? The lot of good it did MC last year
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
TVontheRadio | Posted 9/3/2007 3:01:37 AM | message detail
TJF is in full force, especially at this time of the day.

I KNOW YOU GUYS ARE OUT THERE PLAYING WITH "MR. BUNGLE" AND RIKKU'S MATCH PIC!
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all you need
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 3:02:38 AM | message detail
Heh, 44k votes already.

Yoshi finally took command of the votes again.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/3/2007 3:05:29 AM | message detail
o_O Oh, yeah, it's Labor Day... that's part of the reason why the vote totals are so high. But, still...

Today's poll 6 hours in: 43,976
Battle Royale Day 1 6 hours in: 37,437

Battle Royale Day 1's total votes was the highest vote total we've ever had.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 3:05:41 AM | message detail
Eh, I take Sub Zero as more of a threat than Donkey Kong. 2006 was not a terrible year for the Chief. Nor was it having too many more votes than 2005. Not as big a jump as 2004 to 2005, I don't think.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 3:09:47 AM | message detail
I wonder why we sometimes see a 2x and even 3x spike in votals during the contest when pre-contest polls show most people don't give a hoot about it. Is there really that much rallying going on?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
jonthomson | Posted 9/3/2007 3:12:35 AM | message detail
So, er, Knuckles isn't coasting through to round 3 then?
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
redrocket | Posted 9/3/2007 3:13:10 AM | message detail
I've got a crazy(read: stupid) idea, maybe this is a 4chan influx. Like, the contest got a lot of attention on 4chan due to the Mudkip rally, so maybe it's possible that a lot of 4chaners decided to stick around for the whole contest...
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http://www.pacifier.com/~zen/creepy.jpg
http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/5/56/250px-Clock_Spider.jpg
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 3:13:32 AM | message detail
I don't think many people thought he would coast. Yoshi/Knuckles in Round 2 was a debated match. This... not so much.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 3:16:53 AM | message detail
Yoshi has held steady and actually gained a bit during the last few updates, while Knuckles has been hit pretty hard. If this is somehow a precursor for the morning vote, yikes.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 3:17:21 AM | message detail
I'll shut up now.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 3:59:57 AM | message detail
not surprised Rikku took the lead - surprised she blew by him so fast, though.

my money's still on Knuckles here. should be fun.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 4:16:07 AM | message detail
I can't believe that Knuckles worst hours against Magus has so far been the best in this match.

As for the record, I think it's almost time to call it. As people have said before the American dayvote won't be as effective as it usually is, the european voters will no doubt favor Rikku, and it's hard to imagne a Sonic character getting a night vote over a FF character. If the lead gets above 500, then Knuckles is dead....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 4:38:10 AM | message detail
I can't believe that Knuckles worst hours against Magus has so far been the best in this match.

this is not true. remember, the poll times were different in 2005. Magus built up a ~700 vote lead on him before morning.

I think the worst is passed. it looks like we have about 100,000 votes to go and Knuckles is down 500. that's not exactly an impossible comeback. Rikku shifted 700 votes in five hours. Knuckles could do that pretty easily with the day vote. I feel good with him if Knuckles has indeed stopped the bleeding here.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church against evil" -voltch
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 4:38:43 AM | message detail
Looks like Knuckles is doing his best to deny her just that.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
TVontheRadio | Posted 9/3/2007 4:42:53 AM | message detail
ARGH WHERE ARE THOSE VOTES FOR RIKKU COMING FROM?
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all you need
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 4:46:08 AM | message detail
well Knuckles did gain 25 votes in 10 minutes, so I guess I shouldn't give up all my hope already, but except for Sonic himself, no character I like actually make a succesfully comeback. I'm so used to see my favourite character losing in the close matches, so even if Knuckles gets the lead back, I don't think that he can hold it.

In other news: This is an fantastic performance by Yoshi, I didn't expect him to be 5% away from the other two, but he actually 10% more than Knuckles and Rikku. Yay for Yoshi ^_^
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Haste_2 | Posted 9/3/2007 4:50:37 AM | message detail
If the voting distribution is the same today as it is for a Saturday, this match is on pace for around 180,000 votes. But, it seems like whenever a match goes insane in the first hours, it loses its pace later on... however, the most votes we've ever seen in a contest match was 159,343 votes in Day 1 of the Battle Royale last year, so I'm pretty sure we're gonna see a new record today.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/3/2007 4:59:25 AM | message detail
Seeing that body pictures are used, it is bad news for CATS. Hopefully we can see the hybrid CATS that we saw last year against Sonic. Or maybe Bacon will break the rules for CATS if we're lucky.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
transience | Posted 9/3/2007 5:00:21 AM | message detail
I thought that at first too, but look at Arthas.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 5:00:48 AM | message detail
Bacon may still use the FACE CATS like he did with Arthas...
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 5:04:55 AM | message detail
Rikku lead by more than 1% now... ;_;
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 5:05:14 AM | message detail
I dunno, but Mr Bacon seems to be that kind of guy who wouldn't "notice" if Cats cheated his way to victory over Peach and Meta-Knight, I don't think he will use any other picture than a face close up.


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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 5:07:42 AM | message detail
damn, Knuckles still hasn't taken the day vote? bleh.. I may as well give up on this contest right now.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
cyko | Posted 9/3/2007 5:08:32 AM | message detail
uh-oh. it looks like the day vote might be all Yoshi - not much of Knuckles...

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/3/2007 5:11:52 AM | message detail
It certainly does look that way right now.
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 5:13:15 AM | message detail
pff the dayvote is all Vaan baby!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 5:13:39 AM | message detail
huge Yoshi increase. with that said, Yoshi and Knuckles are sharing a fanbase overlap; with Yoshi getting most of it.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
KingLS | Posted 9/3/2007 5:14:43 AM | message detail
I wish Bonk was in this contest. He'd win easily. I guess he just wants to give everyone else a chance to win.
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"Me? But I can't. I'm having a baby." - Luigi
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 5:16:42 AM | message detail
yes!
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2007 5:17:13 AM | message detail
Wow, already on day 1 we're seeing a potential bracket buster and comeback attempt, which is awesome considering we were wondering how many comeback attempts we would even have in this format. Still...come on, Knuckles! I'm surprised at how well Yoshi is doing. I didn't read the last topic, but from the talk of this topic, are people postulating some Knuckles/Yoshi "SFF" here? I don't really buy that.

But Knuckles is supposed to have an awesome day vote, but he's not showing it right now. Yoshi is using that Nintendo morning power to increase his lead. Knuckles and Rikku are just stalling right now while Yoshi gains. I'm very impressed by Rikku right now. Makes me feel good about Yuna's chances later on. Still, it's strange that a Sonic fan favorite is losing to a distant second FFX favorite.

...I can't wait to see Auron now.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 5:17:31 AM | message detail
Under 500 again...
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2007 5:17:51 AM | message detail
Of course, as soon as I say that, Knuckles has a nice spike.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 5:19:27 AM | message detail
I think this is not day yet, as I heard it is a public holiday over in Americaaaaaaa.... >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/3/2007 5:20:17 AM | message detail
We need to find a good Knuckles qoute to post when he has one of his sudden spikes. ..
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2007 5:20:37 AM | message detail
This is around the time that the morning vote starts. Nintendo is very good with it, as is Knuckles. We'll see if Knux can do more of what he did last update.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/3/2007 5:20:53 AM | message detail
Give me ya bucks!!!
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2007 5:21:28 AM | message detail
Ahh, another gain by Knuckles, nearly 20 that time.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/3/2007 5:23:10 AM | message detail
In my opinion, Yoshi isn't SFFing Knuckles... using linear x-stats, Yoshi is expected to get 58% on Knuckles as is. But, since 4-way polls probably aren't linear, the gap between Yoshi and Knuckles being a bit larger is only natural. And, Yoshi might tend to do relatively better in 4-way polls, anyway.

Now, a fanbase SPLIT... yes, I agree that both Knuckles and Yoshi are being hurt by it. Rikku, too, but probably not so much as Knuckles and Yoshi, since Vaan is so weak. Vaan obviously got hit by SFF.


---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/3/2007 5:23:32 AM | message detail
This will be more spread out throughout the day, because there is no school to wake everyone up...
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks
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