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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 456

transience | Posted 9/2/2007 10:09:47 PM | message detail
puttin' this up extra early because of Aprosenf's updated poll link.

oh and there's some kinda contest going on or something

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php

post and stuff
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:10:10 PM | message detail
TOO SOON AUGH
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
Halcyon26 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Rikku to round 4!
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"You know, if you miss Jack Bauer, he'll come to your house and kill you." Shepard Smith, Fox News. Wii: 0778 4055 2505 7366
Janus5000 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:10:19 PM | message detail
So screwed?

...Wait...
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
transience | Posted 9/2/2007 10:20:11 PM | message detail
also, courtesy of RPGuy!

http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/match.html
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
swirIdude | Posted 9/2/2007 10:20:51 PM | message detail
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/match.html

THANKS FOR THE BLANK PAGE RPGuy!
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334
Draco1214 | Posted 9/2/2007 10:21:10 PM | message detail
Taggage
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/2/2007 10:21:42 PM | message detail
Rikku > Knux
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/2/2007 10:55:51 PM | message detail
Finally, a new link.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
voltch | Posted 9/3/2007 1:44:24 AM | message detail
whoa first day and we already get this.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 1:51:04 AM | message detail
Knuckles the Echidna 26.91% 10648
Rikku 27.22% 10771
Vaan 8.35% 3302
Yoshi 37.52% 14847

Currently Rikku > Knux
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Finally a damn bracket!
TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/3/2007 1:54:16 AM | message detail
Knux will come through. You're all too hyper. =P

Sega dayvote ftw. Yoshi can't eat 'em all.

~Shake
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Commander Douglas Kerciniwitz of the U.S.S. Frying Pan Elite 7 Mark VIII
TVontheRadio | Posted 9/3/2007 1:54:58 AM | message detail
Who honestly was expecting such a performance by both Knuckles and Rikku?
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all you need
TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/3/2007 1:55:15 AM | message detail
But I am worried about my Diablo pick -- it seems that KOS-MOS' chances have increased now we've seen what Rikku could do.

~Shake
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Commander Douglas Kerciniwitz of the U.S.S. Frying Pan Elite 7 Mark VIII
voltch | Posted 9/3/2007 1:55:32 AM | message detail
well i imagine there must have been a lot of talk on rikku's true power with vaan in the poll.
his character look like a girl but he was still not bad to use in FFXII.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 1:55:47 AM | message detail
I didn't expect Rikku to be anywhere close to Knux at all. Much less leading for a while.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 1:56:05 AM | message detail
I expected some weird things, but Yoshi SFFing Knuckles wasn't really one of them. This is going to be one hell of a ride.

I actually considered it as an outside possibility (as pictured in my falsely belated AC write-up...!)... we've seen Sonic and Mario do some odd stuff, but I didn't think it'd happen enough to go for it. I'm still not positive it's happening, really.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Black_Cheese | Posted 9/3/2007 1:56:15 AM | message detail
Wait...I thought KOS-MOS had second place in the bag.
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MKDS FC: 1203-2521-6248
ACWW Kamon in KinLand FC: 3737-2835-7661
TVontheRadio | Posted 9/3/2007 1:56:33 AM | message detail
TJF is still alive and kicking.
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all you need
Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 1:57:22 AM | message detail
KOSMOS pic in that match is AWESOME!!! I'd say she has a lot on her favor.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 1:58:20 AM | message detail
Knuckles isn't doing much worse than I expected. I pegged him at 29%, and if he does ride that famous Sonic day vote, he won't fall too short of that mark. However, I'm pretty surprised with Rikku, whose doing about 3% better than expected, and am downright shocked with stupid FFXII guy, who I predicted to finish with 15%. What an asshat that guy is. Never trust a guy whose chest looks more waxed than my rich neighbor's Porsche.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 1:58:55 AM | message detail
And yeah, I guess I'd expect Knuckles to start slowing this down soon if he wants to stand a chance. Seems to me that Sonic's day vote starts really early, usually. Like Magus/Knuckles, Knuckles started chipping away a mere two hours after the poll started. (different start time) Sonic/Ryu as well the signs of life started not too far beyond the start of the poll.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/3/2007 1:58:56 AM | message detail
Now we know the reason why Magus and Knuckles weren't in last year contest.
Black_Cheese | Posted 9/3/2007 2:00:21 AM | message detail
Mmm...well, no one really likes Vaan...At all really....Furthermore, he's suffering extreme SFF, so, yeah...I really didn't expect much out of him.
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MKDS FC: 1203-2521-6248
ACWW Kamon in KinLand FC: 3737-2835-7661
Black_Cheese | Posted 9/3/2007 2:00:29 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:01:01 AM | message detail
Never trust a guy whose chest looks more waxed than my rich neighbor's Porsche.

Wonderful.




Knuckles ain't out of it yet, but he's going to have to fix this sometime pretty soon.

Rikku VS Knuckles, who ya got?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Keno316 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:01:55 AM | message detail
Without Yoshi? Knuckles anyway.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 2:02:35 AM | message detail
I got Knux. Rikku winning would be great just so we can see people's reactions.
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Finally a damn bracket!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:03:25 AM | message detail
Knuckles for sure. You don't go from beating Magus to flopping against Rikku; you just don't. Yoshi is really doing a number on him here.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/3/2007 2:04:07 AM | message detail
Knuckles

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DC
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:05:47 AM | message detail
I don't think Magus has a very easy time with Rikku, really. I certainly don't see him outdoing Ryu's performance. I'd take Knux to beat Rikku, but not by much.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
voltch | Posted 9/3/2007 2:06:14 AM | message detail
at this point what is the point of no return for knuckles?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 2:06:55 AM | message detail
Rikku over 200. >_>
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Finally a damn bracket!
TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/3/2007 2:11:41 AM | message detail
2000 used to be a good point of no return. It was broken once only, I think. With these new totals and 4 cntestants in a match, who knows?

I'm not getting worried until she has at least 1000.

~Shake
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Commander Douglas Kerciniwitz of the U.S.S. Frying Pan Elite 7 Mark VIII
Lopen | Posted 9/3/2007 2:13:41 AM | message detail
I just think Knuckles has to start chopping at her lead or stalling big time before the real morning vote starts. Something like 600 or 700 would really having me doubt Knuckles. He seems to be slowing it down right now though.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Starion | Posted 9/3/2007 2:14:04 AM | message detail
Wouldn't 2000 be even harder to break in this format especially for the ones competing for 2nd place? A huge percentage of the votes would be going to the 1st place character anyway leaving less to divvy up to the others.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:14:15 AM | message detail
Decent stall. I'm just waiting for the inevitable (yes, inevitable even in 4-way matches) where Rikku picks up 75 votes and the few people who are still awake go bonkers.

Anyway, someone near the end of the last topic suggested that we're going to be having many closer matches during this contest. How funny (pathetic?) is it that I didn't realize this until just now? With double the entrants sharing the same sized pie, we might be in for something like this every few days. An exciting prospect, yes, but probably not very good for me with a full semester starting Tuesday. >_<
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:15:43 AM | message detail
Just to note...though Knuckles does have a good day-vote, we should keep in mind afew things. One, as pointed out alot already, Yoshi is also in the poll...so that's doing Knuckles no favors. We should also keep in mind that Rikku and Vaan are new-age Square characters -- they're no Magus or Kefka in that regard -- and older characters who are out of the lime-light often do worse in daylight than recent stars like Rikku and Vaan. This didn't keep Knuckles from sealing the deal against Yuna in 2k3, but it's not to be ignored when Knuckles is losing ground quickly and has Yoshi in the poll...

...and the next potential thing to keep in mind builds on what I just mentioned about being in the lime-light: a new generation is in and these polls look to get a LOT of votes...but Knuckles hasn't really been enjoyed by many this past generation. The 3D Sonic games have changed him a lot in a way that many new gamers don't care for and has appalled many old-school gamers as well. He hasn't been enjoyed by lots and lots of people since the Genesis now. It's possible that, even without Yoshi in the poll, Knuckles no longer has a great day-vote.

It's all difficult to say right now, but that combination doesn't make me feel all too good.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Haste_2 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:17:32 AM | message detail
Indeed... nobody in the poll really has a terrible day vote, so it's possible for Rikku to hang onto second until the end.

Go Rikku! Being behind by one point is better than being behind by two points! =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 2:21:52 AM | message detail
40 vote Rikku spike. <_<
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Finally a damn bracket!
TVontheRadio | Posted 9/3/2007 2:22:41 AM | message detail
We're seeing the dawn of a new age in gaming contests.

Link > Vincent for Round 4 Div. Finals!
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all you need
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/3/2007 2:23:37 AM | message detail
As a Rikku fan....I am very happy. Go Rikku! Day vote-shmay vote!
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caps
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/3/2007 2:25:02 AM | message detail
If this is the way things are going to start out, I can expect my bracket to bleed........a lot. I know it's early, but Rikku over Knuckles is something I NEVER would have guessed. Ever.
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard
NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0)
ejm5446 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:25:31 AM | message detail
There's much less anti-vote in a four way contest.
Starion | Posted 9/3/2007 2:27:41 AM | message detail
It's only 1 pt. Unless you're thinking Rikku's going to mess up Round 2 as well?
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:28:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, with Vaan in the poll I never bothered thinking about Rikku. Now though, yeesh...should Rikku advance, would anybody take her over Yoshi to steal second place next round? We've seen Mega/Yoshi before and Rikku would be without Vaan.....
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2007 2:29:27 AM | message detail
I've got Knuckles in second for both today and next round, so it's two points for me.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2007 2:32:03 AM | message detail
uh oh
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Starion | Posted 9/3/2007 2:32:30 AM | message detail
Three actually since they double the points every round. I wonder if this actually tells us something about how the other FFX contestants that isn't Tidus will do.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
Gaddswell | Posted 9/3/2007 2:32:33 AM | message detail
Here comes Knuckles!
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Finally a damn bracket!
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