GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 454
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:40:56 PM | message detail |
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If Zidane won that fourpack, I would indeed be shocked. He would've had
to be SFF'd by Crono pretty good, I think. Sure, he's not THAT far
behind any of those three, but to beat all of them out would speak well
of Crono SFFing him noticeably. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/1/2007 12:45:26 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Sonic was stronger, I think Crono (and Mega Man, but we
really don't need to bring him into this discussion) were weaker.
Hence, Luigi, who I think was pretty clearly stronger than in years
prior, should have done better against him. But this is a rather hard
thing to verify - I think I'm right mostly because otherwise Snake is
up there with (2k5) Mario and Samus starts to make Seph sweat. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:49:11 PM | message detail |
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Nah, I think Sonic being stronger seems pretty certain to me, really.
He might have lost to Vincent if he hadn't been. I still think Snake
overperforming on Sonic seems more likely to me, which still makes
Luigi look better than where he is. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 12:53:17 PM | message detail |
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When you're talking about Pikachu, you shouldn't say he "only" has
to beat anyone. Nintendo and Pokemon popularity boost since then or
not, he still struggled mightily to beat PaRappa the Rapper. Oh, he's
going to get votes, but a lot of people still hate his guts. I don't
think it'll be as easy for him to oust Serge as you're making it sound
either. Yeah, but he still managed to get 20% against Cloud, who is a hell of a lot more popular than Tidus and Serge combined. If that Square/Nintendo fanbase had the option of Cloud and still picked Pikachu, then I'm fairly certain that a good amount of voters would vote for him over Tidus and Serge, regardless of how many people "hate" him. Remember, I'm not saying Pikachu is strong, I'm saying I have zero confidence in Serge amounting to anything at all. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/1/2007 12:53:35 PM | message detail |
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That's a decent possibility. Ganondorf is expected to get 2% less on
Samus than he did in 2k5, which would speak of something being wrong in
Samus/Snake or Snake/Sonic. (Or Samus increasing/Ganondorf decreasing,
neither of which seems likely.) --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:57:16 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, but he still managed to get 20% against Cloud, who is a hell of a lot more popular than Tidus and Serge combined. This would mean a whole lot more if it were post-KH Cloud. Instead, you're basically saying that Pikachu got 20% on Crono. Is that impressive? Not by a long shot. I have no idea why getting 20% on pre-KH Cloud is a positive thing. I just don't know why you think Pikachu beats Serge so easily. I highly doubt there's any SFF between Tidus and Serge. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 1:02:16 PM | message detail |
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Uhhhh, since when is Mario/Cloud taken as legit? You know Cloud had to at least been at Sephiroth's level in 2k2. And that's besides the point. 2k2 Cloud is still
more popular than Tidus and Serge combined. Why do I think Pikachu
beats Serge? I already said, because I simply don't think Serge will
amount to anything. You keep bringing up all the Pikachu hate. I never
denied it. I'm arguing that even hated, Pikachu is still more popular than Serge. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| Buzzup | Posted 9/1/2007 1:02:39 PM | message detail |
| I wouldn't count out Isaac being some sort of a factor btw, his games are GBA only which is exactly where Pikachu draws most of his power from. It probably won't affect the yellow rat much, but I have a hard time believing that Tidus effects Serge more that Isaac effect Pikachu. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 1:07:30 PM | message detail |
| I just don't know why anyone could have any amount
of confidence in Pikachu to win easily. It doesn't matter if Cloud is
stronger than Tidus and Serge combined. Solid Snake is, too. Does
17.85% on him mean Soma Cruz is a lock for the second round if you
replace Pikachu with him? No, that doesn't make any sense. Mario/Cloud
weirdness or not, Cloud still wasn't anywhere near as strong as he is
now back in 2002. It doesn't make Pikachu anywhere close to the fodder
line. It doesn't take THAT much effort to beat him. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2007 1:15:50 PM | message detail |
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you're basically saying that Pikachu got 20% on Crono. Is that
impressive? Not by a long shot. I have no idea why getting 20% on
pre-KH Cloud is a positive thing. Zidane got just over 23% against Crono and I don't suspect much SFF there. I would take Zidane > Serge. Tidus will hurt Serge, and will hurt him more than Isaac hurts Pikachu. I think Pokemon has become less hated and D/P has helped the series again. I also maintain that Pokemon has a pretty solid fanbase, though Pikachu won't get the full benefit of it. So, with all this considered, a poll with Tidus, Serge, Pikachu, and Isaac...20% on Crono is good enough to stick it to Serge, and that's if you want to assume Crono = Cloud < Sephiroth in 2k2. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 1:20:11 PM | message detail |
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There's still a noticeable difference between 20% and 23%, for what
it's worth. I don't really think Zidane beats Serge that easily anyway. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2007 1:22:09 PM | message detail |
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That's assuming you want to keep Cloud and Crono even anyway, then
Zidane > Serge only closes the gap whatever extent you want to go
with it. Then you have Tidus to think about. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 1:22:59 PM | message detail |
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...And you've got Isaac to think about, too. He's more likely to share
a fanbase with Pikachu than the other two, regardless of how you want
to minimize the effect that it has on him more than Serge. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| transience | Posted 9/1/2007 1:28:20 PM | message detail |
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I think Isaac's closer to the standard RPG characters than Pikachu. I
don't care about the system here, really. it's not like owning both a
GBA and a PS1 is rare. --- "There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 1:29:30 PM | message detail |
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Regardless, this is different from a "Who would beat who one-on-one?"
thing. I don't take that into too much consideration here, especially
when we're dealing with Tidus and three fodder characters. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2007 1:30:39 PM | message detail |
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Point taken, but I'd taken Tidus > Serge whereas I'd take Pikachu
> Isaac. I think most people would. That changes the effect how the
damage is dealt...and sharing more fanbase or not, I certainly wouldn't
expect Isaac to take much advantage of that against anything
Pokemon-related. Also, for what it's worth, is we assume Cloud 2k2 = Crono 2k5, Zidane gets 55.99% on Pikachu. Cloud 2k2 was probably stronger than Crono 2k5, Pikachu is probably stronger this year than 2k2, Serge is probably weaker than Zidane, and Tidus probably hurts Serge more than Isaac hurts Pikachu. It'll be a fun one to watch, but I'm puttin' my chips in for Pikachu. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/1/2007 1:39:04 PM | message detail |
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It'll be a fun one to watch I'm actually a bit curious about this. We got really lucky last year with Snake/Sephiroth, but I'm wondering if it'll be more difficult for comebacks and the like to happen in this format. Of course, they aren't exactly rare in the regular format, so maybe it won't be so bad. And I'm sure a lot of the results will be surprising, so at least we'll have something to talk about, if not something to mash F5 about. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 1:39:58 PM | message detail |
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Sephiroth/Peach/CATS/Meta-Knight will feature some form of a comeback attempt. I practically guarantee it. CATS will be leading Peach for some amount of time. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| transience | Posted 9/1/2007 1:42:21 PM | message detail |
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I think this contest will be unpredictable as hell, but boring to
watch. ten minutes in and I think we'll pretty much know what happens. --- "There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/1/2007 1:43:32 PM | message detail |
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What is one Knuckles > Magus moment that some of you can see happening this year? There's the flaw in your question. In order to be a Knux/Magus, it can't be logical for anyone to think it could happen. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/1/2007 1:43:54 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and on a related note, to creativename - Is the updater going to
be, uh, updated to support 4 characters? If not, I could generalize the
script I used last year for the Battle Royale, but I don't have a cool
website like you. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/1/2007 1:56:00 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, the Peach/CATS battle will have a comeback in there. If
Alucard/Liquid/Ness are close together, we may see Ness go by them both
by daytime (though I don't recall his Nintendo-vote being as good as
others...?). If Fenix gets first in Round One, he's likely doing it via
comeback over Kefka. MC could start every match in second or even third
place yet make it as far as the Elite Eight (in my bracket, at least --
who knows about other people). Pikachu might make it exciting come
day-time in his first match, advancing or not. Kratos and Kirby are
going to fight hard for second in the third round come day-time.
Vincent might seal the deal over Crono come day-time if that upset
happens too... ...there's plenty of room for comebacks of some sort to keep it interesting, plus whatever else I missed. Time will tell though. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2007 2:53:20 PM | message detail |
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Another thing about comebacks is don't expect 2000 vote swings to
happen that easily. In the Sephiroth/Snake match in the 3rd BR match
Snake was able to get about a 950 vote lead and it took almost
everything Sephiroth had to catch up. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Topic - http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37528396 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/1/2007 2:57:09 PM | message detail |
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You could also look at Mario/Samus to see that she doesn't perform well in SFF matches. That's a product of her being the third-in-command in the Nintendo chain. She's never been as popular or as loved as Mario or Link, even within the Nintendo fanbase. It wasn't all that surprising for her to get SFFed pretty hard by Mario. But there is a world of difference between Mario and Bowser, particularly in a multi-way poll. To me, choosing Mega Man there requires too many things to fall into line for it to be a good upset pick. First, Bowser has to make it there, then he has to take a large enough chunk of the Nintendo vote to make Samus significantly weakened, and then finally, Mega Man has to remain unchanged by there being two Nintendo characters there. Not buying it. --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| ZFS | Posted 9/1/2007 3:01:57 PM | message detail |
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Sephiroth/Peach/CATS/Meta-Knight will feature some form of a
comeback attempt. I practically guarantee it. CATS will be leading
Peach for some amount of time. CATS will be leading the entire match! Believe --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2007 3:19:07 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I don't. Luigi was stronger last year, but then again, so was Sonic. Unless you're one of those crazy guys who still thinks Sonic has a close match with Mega Man. That's ridiculous. Sonic and Mega Man had a damn common opponent and scored close enough that a match between the two would be a tossup. Luigi SFFing Zero and Kirby before performing as expected on Sonic makes much more sense then some weird Sonic/Snake or Snake/Mega Man funny stuff. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/1/2007 4:12:38 PM | message detail |
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Zero has been showing decelerated growth, while Raiden's true strength
still hasn't been shown. Anybody open to the idea of Raiden taking
second behind Crono? --- Feel my truth. |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/1/2007 4:16:00 PM | message detail |
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In the first round, yes. In the second round, not going to happen. Raiden would have to be the second strongest MG character by a light year to have a chance of that. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2. |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/1/2007 4:24:29 PM | message detail |
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Or just be as strong as Knuckles. --- Feel my truth. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 4:30:56 PM | message detail |
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nah, I wouldn't take Raiden over Sub-Zero. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 4:36:37 PM | message detail |
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That's ridiculous. Sonic and Mega Man had a damn common opponent and
scored close enough that a match between the two would be a tossup.
Luigi SFFing Zero and Kirby before performing as expected on Sonic
makes much more sense then some weird Sonic/Snake or Snake/Mega Man
funny stuff. I actually suspect Snake/Sonic suspicion myself. the Sonic side looks weaker than Snake's side. Luigi also looks far too weak after beating Zero and Kirby. something had to have happened. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 4:38:31 PM | message detail |
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Sonic and Mega Man had a common opponent and scored close enough that a match between the two would be a tossup. Too bad everything else about the contest indicates they aren't near equals. That should tell you there was an anomaly somewhere. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2007 6:27:03 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| NominateSerge | Posted 9/1/2007 6:27:55 PM | message detail |
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...What? Those have nothing to do with anything, except for maybe Sora. --- Vote for Serge. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2007 6:30:34 PM | message detail |
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What indicates this? Sora looking strong after a well recieved sequel where he sheds his kiddish persona? Luigi doing to Zero what Mario did 2 years ago? A Squall that seems to fit right in with where he was in 2k5? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/1/2007 6:34:51 PM | message detail |
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Just about everyone behind Mega Man indicates it - no, I think literally everyone behind him does. --- FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan) |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 7:01:30 PM | message detail |
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Luigi doing to Zero what Mario did 2 years ago? wait, how is 54% anywhere near 63%? --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 7:08:15 PM | message detail |
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Obviously he wasn't talking about exact percentages... --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/1/2007 7:12:42 PM | message detail |
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Why are you guys only considering Serge, but not Isaac? I think Isaac will do better than Serge. --- SC2K7 Betting Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37858904 Please participate and stuff. :x |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/1/2007 7:13:58 PM | message detail |
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Because Isaac is from a weaker game/series than Serge and likely has dated even worse. At least CC has hardcore fans. --- Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 7:19:29 PM | message detail |
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I know he didn't mean percentages. I know he's talking about Luigi
overperforming on Zero, I was just pointing out why I think they both
didn't. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 7:21:23 PM | message detail |
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So for there to have been something screwy with Mario/Zero and Luigi/Zero, they had to have gotten the same percentages on him? --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 7:29:02 PM | message detail |
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well, no. not the same percentages exactly. it's just a gut thing. if
Zero got around what he was really expected to get on Mega Man,
Mario/Luigi SFF wouldn't even be in our heads, because he's a lot
closer to Mega Man than he is with the other two, right? (but then
again... Mega Man/Yoshi proves that wrong.. ugh, what am I saying?) well, how about this: he resisted SFF against Mega Man, so if there was anything fishy in at least his match with Luigi, he would have had more of a blowout-ish score. I was more aiming at Luigi just not overperforming on Zero. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 7:33:50 PM | message detail |
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There's a reason he resisted Mega Man SFF. He's introduced in the
series as someone who is cooler and more badass than Mega Man (X), so
it's easy for fans to prefer him to Mega Man. That has nothing to do
with Mario (and Luigi). Most likely, Mario would SFF Mega Man as well.
I'm thinking that Nintendo fans like Mega Man (and Zero), but not more
than the Mario crew. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| creativename | Posted 9/1/2007 7:34:12 PM | message detail |
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therealmnm: You know Cloud had to at least been at Sephiroth's level in 2k2. I'm pretty sure Sephiroth would have beaten Cloud back then. I see zilcho reason to doubt that in fact. Mario/Cloud was not legit, but it makes perfect sense that Cloud gained much more from KH. Sephiroth may even have been able to SFF Cloud back then, but of course that's pure speculation. Not that 2K2 is all that relevant to Pikachu's strength years later in a new format though. RPGuy: but I'm wondering if it'll be more difficult for comebacks and the like to happen in this format. Why so? There's now two positions that matter per match, and thus double the possible comebacks per match. Plus, due to smaller vote differences, rallying/cheating can have more of an effect. This is especially true for 2nd place, which will be much easier to alter than the winner in a one on one match. Oh, and on a related note, to creativename - Is the updater going to be, uh, updated to support 4 characters? If not, I could generalize the script I used last year for the Battle Royale, but I don't have a cool website like you. I'll try to do it Monday or Tuesday. If you have your own script, feel free to email it to me, might make my edit easier :) Though I can only really use it if it's in PHP. transcience: ten minutes in and I think we'll pretty much know what happens. Again, due to the format, this should have more potential swings than normal match. Think Snake/Sephiroth. You do that 4-character match in all manner of 1-on-1 permutations, and you don't have a single close match; put them all together and bam!, close match. Percentages will follow an exponential distribution, and so on average the difference between 1st and 2nd place will be much bigger than the difference between 2nd and 3rd. This is key. charmander: Another thing about comebacks is don't expect 2000 vote swings to happen that easily. In the Sephiroth/Snake match in the 3rd BR match Snake was able to get about a 950 vote lead and it took almost everything Sephiroth had to catch up. But vote differences won't be as big to begin with. And again, exponential distribution plays in - the amount needed to swing 2nd place will be on average less than half the amount necessary to swing a one-on-one. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 9/1/2007 7:35:38 PM | message detail |
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I'll add that while Snake/Sephiroth was a close match for 3rd place,
and thus not directly relevant to the discussion here, the general
point of that still holds. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 7:38:27 PM | message detail |
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I wonder; if MMX was actually in the tournament as a separate character (dammit, Bacon didn't do it), how strong would he be? --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2007 8:09:50 PM | message detail |
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I can't see X being much different then regular Mega Man. MM is popular
enough that most of his votes come from his iconic old-schooliness. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| MMXcalibur | Posted 9/1/2007 8:54:28 PM | message detail |
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Question for you gentle folk: Tingle, Pit or Mudkip? I have Pit, but Tingle's from Zelda...........but c'mon.....who's voting for Tingle? --- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) : AFC Wildcard NEXT: at Houston Texans (0-0) |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 9/1/2007 9:47:00 PM | message detail |
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Pit wins on principle. The other two are jokes and don't deserve to be here --- Fc: 4768 3939 5325 |
