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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 454

MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 9:17:59 PM | message detail
well, they have nobody else to side with. that's why I have him.
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creativename | Posted 8/31/2007 9:19:10 PM | message detail
MMX had the idea of a Mario>Sephy upset earlier on... It was pretty clearly disproved by the Battle Royale, but I don't think anyone mentioned that you can still have Mario over Sephy before that. Not that it'll matter as much, but still.

I think Mario>Sephiroth in the divisional finals will become a real popular bandwagon choice when the time comes around, with Magus there.

I don't think that upset will pan out, but it's possible.


RPGuy:
If I've been following the Oracle Discussion topic correctly, it seems that the consensus is that cn's method underrates low guys in matches

Yeah, King Morgoth's method is better. Haste2 point out a big flaw in mine.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2007 9:21:41 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say Morgoth's way is better necessarily. It really overrates the losing characters, if you ask me.

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2007 9:23:56 PM | message detail
I have a hard time believing Sephiroth could lose to Mario when Sephiroth beat Mario when *CLOUD* was with Sephiroth in the Battle Royale. I don't see Sephiroth and Magus sharing a lot of fanbase, despite both being Squaresoft. I would say Ganondorf and Luigi are more closely-knit than Sephiroth and Magus. Add Super Mario Galaxy... now we're talking. But, SMG is a month too late. :[

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 9:27:43 PM | message detail
dunno how strong Mario is without Link but I'm pretty sure Sephiroth still wins there.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 9:47:57 PM | message detail
my crazy ridiculous upset pick is probably Ocelot going to the third round.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2007 9:49:09 PM | message detail
...and BT stop being a jackass for one second please. You're saying MP3 isn't going to help Samus because it's going to be a month and a half from now, but then you go on to talk about why MM should be stronger thanks to another terrible addition to the series that nearly no one is going to play except die hard MM fans already, and a cartoon.

If you bothered to actually read my post, you'd see that I said that MP3 might not be relevant enough a month from now to prevent Bowser taking a slice of the Nintendo vote pie. And I also said that Mega Man's new games will have little to no effect on anything and only brought them up because someone asked if he's had anything out since last year.

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2007 9:52:15 PM | message detail
And HM, I brought up Samus/Ganondorf because of how she completely failed to SFF the weaker Nintendo character (one that's only a peg or 2 above Bowser).

You could also look at Mario/Samus to see that she doesn't perform well in SFF matches.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/31/2007 11:23:24 PM | message detail
On an un-contest related note, this poll's early goings are kind of interesting...particularly GH3's performance.
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2007 11:25:33 PM | message detail
GAH FRIGGIN' DRAGONFORCEFAQs
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/31/2007 11:53:55 PM | message detail
Hey man, Phantom Hourglass will get 30% by day time >_>
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voltch | Posted 8/31/2007 11:57:44 PM | message detail
so just having FFT in the title doesn't help you into scond place vs zelda?
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2007 11:57:46 PM | message detail
I imagine they'll both go up when day hits - FFT, Katamari, Castlevania, Half-Life and PW aren't exactly known for great day votes, and Folklore isn't exactly known at all.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2007 11:59:17 PM | message detail
On an un-contest related note, this poll's early goings are kind of interesting...particularly GH3's performance.

You're surprised by Guitar Hero's performance? You do know how popular it's become over the past year right? And now we're talking a big multi-console release for the series including the Wii. It's legit.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/1/2007 4:08:32 AM | message detail
Back on-topic.....here's what's bugging me.....

- I'm starting to mull over some matches. This Tingle/Pit/Mudkip fight for 2nd place is intriguing. Tingle is Zelda related and that's the main reason I have him taking 2nd, but oh man....it's tempting to take Pit. Come match day, I can't help but think that just a match pic of SSBB Pit will give him 2nd when pitted (lol) against such crappy characters.

- Also, I'm kind of 50/50 on keeping Dante > Vivi in Round 3 (Dante/Vivi/Leon/Balthier). Through some extenuous x-stats inspections, Vivi and Leon aren't THAT far off (roughly 52-48 in favor of Leon). However, I can't find any reason on why Vivi could make up that difference. The one thing I can find is Dante might take some votes from Leon as they're both Capcom, but there's Balthier doing the same thing to Vivi. I guess I'll just chalk this up to being a risk I'll have to be willing to accept if I want to separate myself from the pack (in a good or bad way!). In my mind, it's the only "TRUE" risk I'd willing to accept.

- Alucard > Liquid Snake > Ness. I wish I could take stock in that 2004 showing by Liquid to make me rest easier, I really wish I could..... Thankfully, whoever accompanies Alucard to the next round won't be losing me anymore points as MC and Yuna should take care of business next round.

- I've given up trying to read what the hell Master Chief is going to do in this tournament. He'll either do a solid job or suck ass like he has in the past. He's such a tough character to get a solid read on. I mean, he "SHOULD" be doing really well contest after contest.....but Christ, he just lost to Sub-Zero.

- Usually I sweat over most matches, but I haven't looked twice at Serge > Pikachu for 2nd place in Round 1. Swear to god, not even a second glance.

- I used to be worried that Bowser might "underperform" a bit considering where he is in Round 1 and some of his opponents (Ryu in particular), but the more and more I look at my bracket....the more and more it looks normal to have Bowser coming 2nd in the division and being placed ahead of Ryu in Rounds 1 and 2. It just looks right.

- Kratos has definently gotten tougher since God of War II, but I think the long-timer Donkey Kong should be getting the casual vote to put him JUST ahead. That's why I still have him winning his Round 1 match with Kratos coming up in 2nd.

- Aeris or Sora....Aeris or Sora....Aeris or Sora. Ehhhhhhhh....Aeris...if nothing else, she whipped Sora before (yes, I know it's pre KHII....but still....it's enough to keep me from changing that pick a bajillion times)

That's all I got. God I hope Sunday evening comes quick.....I'm sick of going over my bracket 287509176908174098179071189075 times a night.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/1/2007 4:39:49 AM | message detail
Sora and Aeris are making me go crazy too>_>
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/1/2007 7:19:28 AM | message detail
Vivi > Leon?
Serge > Pikachu?
DK > Kratos?

One less bracket to worry about

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 8:04:28 AM | message detail
Serge > Pikachu actually can make sense, man.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2007 8:31:16 AM | message detail
If we do not have any pictures, I fear for more than a few character chances. Matt would be screwed, of course. Link and Zelda might have the potential for more interesting percentages. Samus might be vulnerable. That is just scratching the surface.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2007 8:34:11 AM | message detail
And I have just realized how hard it is to type on a computer with a broken apostrophe key. :(
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Xuxon | Posted 9/1/2007 8:40:01 AM | message detail
No Pictures? L-block is screwed, Vivi gets hurt a bit, Kefka suddenly goes on a rampage.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 9:02:45 AM | message detail
man, we better have pictures. I know Bacon is new but.. come on, Bacon!
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/1/2007 9:27:03 AM | message detail
If there is no picture, you will see guys(especially VLADO) ranting non stop like nobody business for 2 freaking months.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 9:30:25 AM | message detail
can anyone remind me the other of the two non-listed games that got on the top 100 list? it was Halo 2 and what else?
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2007 9:33:05 AM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/1/2007 9:33:18 AM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia, at a higher spot than Halo 2, no less.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 9:38:11 AM | message detail
okay, then we have to be really underrating Kratos and Zelos.
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voltch | Posted 9/1/2007 9:44:48 AM | message detail
why suddenly the talk of no match pictures?

it's almost inconceivable.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2007 9:45:33 AM | message detail
The reason ToS made it was Board 8
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 10:05:14 AM | message detail
really? how many people here had ToS?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/1/2007 10:11:22 AM | message detail
Wow, it's a little scary how accurate my joke about Phantom Hourglass getting 30% in the day time was. And low and behold, it's almost there <_<
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/1/2007 10:15:55 AM | message detail
You're surprised by Guitar Hero's performance? You do know how popular it's become over the past year right? And now we're talking a big multi-console release for the series including the Wii. It's legit.

I guess I just didn't expect it to do quite this well. But then again, it has virtually no competition other than Hourglass, so I guess it makes sense.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/1/2007 10:22:03 AM | message detail
really? how many people here had ToS?

At the time ToS was huge on the board. Take a look at the 1st Board 8 Top 100 characters I think around 3/4 of the party made it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/1/2007 10:23:35 AM | message detail
oh, heh. still, I'm 50/50 on HK-47 and Lloyd and I just really don't know which one comes out.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2007 11:11:01 AM | message detail
At the time ToS was huge on the board.

In my time on B8, I don't think a single game has been discussed as much immediately after its release as much as ToS. TP and D/P are the only ones that near it in that respect.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/1/2007 11:11:55 AM | message detail
ToS is still talked about almost every damned day on this board.
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voltch | Posted 9/1/2007 11:12:54 AM | message detail
about board 8's favourite characters is magus still the top man?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/1/2007 11:13:09 AM | message detail
Of course not :(
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2007 11:15:11 AM | message detail
Magus is up there, though. Could be one of the reasons why his match against Knuckles was never really considered here, his popularity on B8.
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voltch | Posted 9/1/2007 11:17:29 AM | message detail
so who's the dominant force now?
squall?laguna?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2007 11:18:42 AM | message detail
No way. Laguna...just no, and Squall still has some haters.
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voltch | Posted 9/1/2007 11:22:27 AM | message detail
let's see i remember samus cloud and link did well on several occasions.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:10:15 PM | message detail
I don't see anybody in this fourpack that serves as a better option than him for the average Nintendo fan...

Ahh, the Nintendo fans are robots theory. I personally think it's a little silly to side with a character just because he's Nintendo and no one else in the poll is, especially when it's Pikachu. And I'd wager that Tidus and Serge are more appealing to the average voter than Pikachu if said fan is a fan of both Nintendo and Square.

but I look at 54% on Zero, 52% on Kirby, and under 40% on Sonic as being a bit incongruous.

Eh, I don't. Luigi was stronger last year, but then again, so was Sonic. Unless you're one of those crazy guys who still thinks Sonic has a close match with Mega Man.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:25:05 PM | message detail
Also, I'm not sure why everyone seems to be concerned about a lack of pictures. If we can have a match picture with 6 characters in it, 4 should work just fine.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 12:28:55 PM | message detail
Ahh, the Nintendo fans are robots theory. I personally think it's a little silly to side with a character just because he's Nintendo and no one else in the poll is, especially when it's Pikachu. And I'd wager that Tidus and Serge are more appealing to the average voter than Pikachu if said fan is a fan of both Nintendo and Square.

I never said they are robots, but Tidus is not the epitome of someone who is liked by everyone. And I seriously doubt that Serge will pick up the slack of those that simply don't care for Tidus. It's not because he is Nintendo, it's because the competition sucks that much. Tidus is going to kill this pack, but not enough where Serge beats out Pikachu.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:30:22 PM | message detail
For all of the "These guys aren't universally liked" statements you give me for why Pikachu can advance, I can only say that Pikachu has this problem much more than Tidus and Serge do. The yellow rat is despised even by Pokemon fans.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/1/2007 12:33:37 PM | message detail
You're talking like Pikachu won't get any votes. Yes, he's not that popular, but everyone doesn't hate him. He's going to get votes. We're only talking about beating out Serge...
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Buzzup | Posted 9/1/2007 12:35:43 PM | message detail
I don't believe Tidus will SFF Serge too bad, and Pokemon receiving less hate=/=Pikachu being less hated, those are my reasons for picking Serge in that match.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2007 12:38:24 PM | message detail
When you're talking about Pikachu, you shouldn't say he "only" has to beat anyone. Nintendo and Pokemon popularity boost since then or not, he still struggled mightily to beat PaRappa the Rapper. Oh, he's going to get votes, but a lot of people still hate his guts. I don't think it'll be as easy for him to oust Serge as you're making it sound either.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Yesmar | Posted 9/1/2007 12:38:36 PM | message detail
What is one Knuckles > Magus moment that some of you can see happening this year?


Personally, I think that Zidane winning his fourpack is one outcome I could potentially see happening and shocking us all. I don't think that's it's going to happen, but I think that it's within the realm of possibility, since we have no clue if he got SFF'd by Crono at all.
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