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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 454

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 8:18:22 PM | message detail

can't believe you're considering Serge > Pikachu while taking Mewtwo > Ryu, H.

I no longer stand by that pick and would prefer to have Bowser > Ryu, though I'm not changing it out of being stubborn and hopes of making the leaderboard at some point.

That said, Ryu smashes Serge or Tidus one-on-one and Pikachu's not a fan-favorite. Mewtwo would probably hold his own against Ryu one-on-one and is a fan-favorite.

Suppose that Link, Cloud, Snake (or Sephiroth), and Master Chief were in a poll together. What would the percentages look like?

Around 15%, give or take. 19%-20% of the site wants Halo 3 more than any other game, Halo 1 killed in the Top 100 List while Halo 2 was one of the two write-ins to make it, Halo was a 1-seed in the Game Contest, and the SSBB-poll -- despite Nintendo-bias -- had MC get almost 9%-10% against Cloud (already in this poll), Crono (who 61-39'd MC), and Mega Man/Sonic (both of whom Solid 55-45'd last year)...but Solid would take less of the vote than Sonic/Mega combined. Sure, gotta throw Link in there too, but you should also consider that Dante (who's notably stronger than MC), Hayabusa (who's remade his name on the Xbox), and Sub-Zero (who beat him just last year) lost to MC in it and would be thrown out of this superstar-poll. Add Halo 3 to it alongside increased 360 ownership and a typical match set-up, and you have MC taking a big dive into the pool. He wouldn't avoid last place in Link/Cloud/Solid/MC, but he wouldn't come out looking bad at all either against such names.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2007 8:29:02 PM | message detail

I don't know why people have Yuna over Master Chief. Compare 39% against Ganondorf to 39% against Crono (fishy match or not, it only adds fuel to the notion of Chief having that big a hardcore fanbase). I do happen to think the Chief has a free pass to Ganon/Luigi. Yuna gets last there, and I think post-TP Ganon SFFs Luigi just enough for Chief to pass through. It could go the other way, though. Ganon's shown to be poor with SFF and Luigi was the second most popular Mario character according to the infamous poll.

The tricky match is the one with Dante/Leon. There's no SFF safety net there, so Chief has to rely solely on the power of his supposed hardcore fanbase. I personally think Halo 3 being out then is what pushes him to another second place finish. Then he loses respectably to Snake/Sonic.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/30/2007 8:48:18 PM | message detail

Suppose that Link, Cloud, Snake (or Sephiroth), and Master Chief were in a poll together. What would the percentages look like?

Can't see Link getting less than 40, Cloud less than 30, or Snake less than 20. So MC can't get more than 10% there, really.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 8/30/2007 8:56:04 PM | message detail

Why are you all talking about Mewtwo like he's going to do something? The VERY most he might do is take some votes from Bowser to put him in a close 2nd behind Ryu.

But for advancing to Round 2?

HA!
HA, I SAY!
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swirIdude | Posted 8/30/2007 8:57:52 PM | message detail

This post is all about MMXcalibur taking back the Prophet Challenge. It's not any fun without the humor.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/30/2007 9:05:52 PM | message detail

Almost nobody thinks Mewtwo's going to do anything, because he got the worst draw of any newcomer here.

But he won't be weak. The Sub-Zero analogy was pretty apt, and I'd certainly expect Pokemon to be more popular than Mortal Kombat here...
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/30/2007 9:08:14 PM | message detail

I'm not sure if even Mewtwo could break the fodder line.... that is, if it wasn't for SSBM. Darn that SSB series!

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 9:15:41 PM | message detail

Can't see Link getting less than 40, Cloud less than 30, or Snake less than 20. So MC can't get more than 10% there, really.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2565

Solid's already got under 20%, and Cloud/Link have 36/45...both of which would go down some amount with MC in the mix.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 9:17:42 PM | message detail

SSBM wasn't too kind for Mewtwo, ha, though I'll say that I've seen my casual friends play as him some. That's more than I can say about Bowser, though they're both so bad and awkward to use that it's not worth mentioning again.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/30/2007 9:24:06 PM | message detail

Solid's already got under 20%, and Cloud/Link have 36/45...both of which would go down some amount with MC in the mix.

But you're saying MC would beat Snake, or come damned close. If you think that, by all means take him to go far, but I think you're crazy.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 9:31:50 PM | message detail

...but I'm not calling for an upset -- I already mentioned that I think MC would take a respectable last position, probably around 15%. I understand that this would mean MC would hurt Cloud AND Link more than Solid if this was true that MC takes last with 15%, which is mighty awkward...but at the same time, I would love to see Link/Cloud/Solid/MC just to see the distribution between MC's fans once he's gone. Really, that much is hard to predict.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 9:45:53 PM | message detail

To elaborate further, take the SSBB-poll that's been thrown about a lot (often by me). Leave Cloud in, but replace Sonic with Solid and Mega Man with Link. This should hinder MC, sure, but he's at 9% before this and I don't see that number going much lower. Now take out Hayabusa, who's been making a name for himself again on MC's currently-sole console of exposure (and the PC isn't worth mentioning much for him). Then take out Dante, who's considerably stronger than MC. Then take out Sub-Zero, who beat MC last year. Then take out Crono, who 61-39'd him two years ago. Then change the situation where the question isn't aimed directly to SSBB fans. Then add Halo 3 on a system without a Halo game yet still has higher ownership than the Xbox.

Having seen Link/Cloud/Solid and knowing Solid got just under 20%, then somebody who can take 15% from that poll has a good chance of upsetting Solid (that would only be costing each character 5% if it's even). Having seen the SSBB-poll and knowing MC got over 9% in that horrible situation for him, getting less than 6% more in this situation isn't unruly in the least bit.

I wasn't buying MC > Solid in this match until you called me out on it. Now...maybe, hard to say. I wanna see how MC does in this bracket though.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/30/2007 9:49:55 PM | message detail

Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2007 9:50:03 PM | message detail

...Solid Snake is way too much for the Chief to handle, even post-Halo 3 in a format like this. Hell, I think Ganon's too much for the Chief, which is why I have him in second.
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creativename | Posted 8/30/2007 9:56:58 PM | message detail

Black Turtle:
Freak? Mega Man isn't that far behind Samus, and the fact that Bowser will be in there zapping her votes makes it seem like a no-brainer to pick Mega there.

I hadn't thought much about a Mega Man>Samus upset, but it does seem possible. Has Mega Man had any releases lately of note? If not Samus' more recent hype should make her safe.

And TRE, I've noticed that as kids grow up, things that are "kiddy" suddenly become cool again, especially if it's something from your childhood. Case in point, look at how well Transformers did in the box office.

Gotta disagree with you here...when was Transformers NOT cool? Most men my age have always had positive nostalgia about that.

TRE
Transformers was considered kiddy? I guess I'm a bit out of touch with things.

Indeed, that was never the case.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 10:04:52 PM | message detail

Transformers wasn't a good example -- the new TMNT movie would be a better example of something "kiddy" people my age grew up with than that...and I don't know how it did in the box office.

Anyway, retrograde applies to lots of things I suppose. Pokemon seems to benefit from it, but Pikachu never had that many fans that considered themselves gamers. He'll benefit, but don't look for miracles in him.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 11:52:06 PM | message detail

Much of it can be blamed on the competition...but it's worth pointing out right now that there are ~16.5% more people who want Halo 3 the most this month than own a 360 (57.45%, 40.84%). Doesn't have to mean much, but I consider it interesting. It's even more fun to look at when 12.65% of the site say they planned to get a 360 after the price dropped since it still doesn't cover the difference. Also keep in mind that 39.22% of the site have either pre-ordered it three weeks ago or plan to buy it once it comes out when there's 40.84%-ownership.

Could mean good things for MC, could mean nothing...hard to say, I just like the awkward numbers we're seeing right now.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2007 11:55:49 PM | message detail

Without a "none of them" option, anything I take from a poll like this is obviously sketchy before any other problems present themselves. Remember, Halo's biggest weakness is its detractors.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 8/31/2007 12:38:16 AM | message detail

***WARNING: OPINIONS (most likely poor ones) AHEAD!***

For instance, there are two matches that have me going back and forth. Yuna/Master Chief and Leon/Tidus/Vivi. Personally, I've gone back and forth so many times I've lost count. So, instead I feel the best direction is to play "defensively".

In the 1st match between Yuna/Master Chief, I went with what I feel is LEAST likely to happen: Yuna > Master Chief. In the 2nd Round, I went with the MORE likely to happen, Master Chief > Yuna. I'm fairly confident that both MC and Yuna will go through to the next rounds, I just don't feel confident on the order. This contest rewards you with some points for getting the correct two who will move on and EXTRA POINTS for the correct order. With such close characters, I could not 100% guarantee a set order between the wildcard Master Chief and Yuna, so I just went with both combinations with the most likely combo put later in the bracket.

As for Leon/Tidus/Vivi, personally I think Tidus is overlooked. Hey, that's just me...but I think he can take 2nd in the division. I look at this as "Leon vs Square Character". In Round 1, I went with the LEAST likely, Leon > Square Character (Vivi). In Round 2, it got tricky with 3 characters with a shot to move on. However, the idea of "Leon vs Square Character" didn't change, so I went what I thought was MOST likely to happen, Square Character (Tidus) > Leon in Round 2.

I think that makes sense, but I think it's a smart strategy in a tournament such as this.

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JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/31/2007 12:51:04 AM | message detail

As for Leon/Tidus/Vivi, personally I think Tidus is overlooked. Hey, that's just me...but I think he can take 2nd in the division. I look at this as "Leon vs Square Character". In Round 1, I went with the LEAST likely, Leon > Square Character (Vivi). In Round 2, it got tricky with 3 characters with a shot to move on. However, the idea of "Leon vs Square Character" didn't change, so I went what I thought was MOST likely to happen, Square Character (Tidus) > Leon in Round 2.

Huh, in round 1, Leon only gets to face one square character and you have Leon over Vivi. In round 2, Leon gets to face 2 square character(split fanbase factor) and you have Tidus over Leon, quite contradicting i would say.

BTW, you have the thinking of Square Character are definitely stronger than Leon. I think Leon will have no problems dispatching Rikku, Terra, Kefka, Vivi, Tidus, Zidane, Celes, Kain and much more.

MMXcalibur | Posted 8/31/2007 1:22:17 AM | message detail

After rereading it, yeah...I don't think Vivi/Tidus/Leon is the best example. Look at my Yuna/Master Chief explanation for more on what I'm trying to say. Call it "damage control" so you can make up those points you MIGHT lose later in the tournament.

I admit, it's tough to understand. I'm even having trouble explaining it!
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2007 1:30:33 AM | message detail

So, you're just minimizing the chances of losing ALL potential points, right? Guaranteeing you're getting something? That makes sense with MC/Yuna (besides that, I think you're gonna be correct for BOTH rounds there)... but if you want to apply that logic to Leon/Vivi/Tidus, you should consider that Leon will have it much easier in Round 2, with Vivi and Tidus splitting the Square vote. So, it would be more logical to go with Vivi > Leon in Round 1, followed by Leon > Tidus/Vivi next time. Besides that, I think Vivi has a great shot at beating Leon in Round 1, anyway.

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MMXcalibur | Posted 8/31/2007 1:37:34 AM | message detail

transience | Posted 8/31/2007 1:46:27 AM | message detail

ahh, I remember safe picks.

"I've got Kefka because at least I know he'll be in the finals."
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MMXcalibur | Posted 8/31/2007 1:56:52 AM | message detail

I don't think having someone stretched to the finals is a real "safe pick" unless it's a powerhouse like Link, Cloud or Sephiroth.

........by the way, who the hell thought Kefka to the finals of ANY tournament was a "safe pick"?
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/31/2007 1:59:54 AM | message detail

Yeah, Haste, I went back and went with Leon > Tidus. My view really didn't work in that scenario as it did in MC/Yuna. I still think that Tidus is coming in 2nd in the division though. The lack of a "real" SFF in the division finals will help him get past Leon. You could argue that Balthier could steal some votes, but I don't think it'll be enough. I believe it's an acceptable risk, if nothing else.

Seriously, in 1 vs 1 against Leon, Leon can whoop Tidus's xxx without any problem. Tidus scored 42% against Kirby while Leon scored 45% against Bowser. Bowser is stronger than Kirby by a good margin. Btw, Leon has the Wii RE4 by his side this year while Tidus hasn't been in any major games for 2 years.

Now with Balthier stealing FF votes from Tidus, I think Tidus stands no chance against Leon.( Dante might split some capcom action genre votes with Leon but i don't think Capcom overlapping fanbase is as big as FF overlapping fanbase.)

FFaddict1313 | Posted 8/31/2007 2:16:55 AM | message detail

MMX had the idea of a Mario>Sephy upset earlier on... It was pretty clearly disproved by the Battle Royale, but I don't think anyone mentioned that you can still have Mario over Sephy before that. Not that it'll matter as much, but still.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/31/2007 2:52:37 AM | message detail

Will Master Chief become the next Solid Snake.

Last year, Solid Snake overcame a seemingly impossible odds and stole the whole show with the earlier than expected MGS4 and SSBB boost. At the beginning of the 2006 contest, many people were skeptic of Solid Snake ability and thought he had absolutely no chance to overcome that insurmontable votes against Mega Man. However Solid Snake completely embarrassed the male division by destroying Yoshi, Squall, MegaMan and Sonic. Snake went from 43 % loss on Megaman in 2004 to 55% win on Megaman in 2006.

Right now, many people are still doubting Master chief strength and how are we supposed to trust MC when he is constantly losing to people supposedly "weaker" than him year in, and year out. However, some firm MC supporter believes that in a 4 ways character match, the anti votes will be more spread out and won't have as much of an effect. Halo 3 is also gonna released during the contest period. Could MC steal the show this year by beating Ganondorf in the quarter final and outlasting Sonic/Snake in the Semi final?

Btw, i am not a MC fan but you can't deny that this scenario isn't going to happen.

greatone10 | Posted 8/31/2007 3:16:06 AM | message detail

Personally, I don't think anti votes amount for any significant part of MC's popularity or lack thereof. If he makes any noise in this tournament, I think it's because of the fanbase he's bringing here looking for FAQs.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2007 6:13:48 AM | message detail

Solid Snake SFFs Master Chief! Bank on it!
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Osfan | Posted 8/31/2007 7:02:29 AM | message detail

Personally, I don't think anti votes amount for any significant part of MC's popularity or lack thereof. If he makes any noise in this tournament, I think it's because of the fanbase he's bringing here looking for FAQs.

People don't play Halo in a sense that they look for FAQS. I mean how many people will buy the new Halo and even play story mode in the first day? I think this is a point that is truly being overlooked in the chiefs boosting this year. We all saw that Halo series did better then the chief did last year. People don't play Halo for the story mode they play for the online. Look at the beta they coulda just thrown in a demo with Crackdown from the story, but who the hell wants that they want the online gameplay thats what people play Halo for. Will he get a boost from his game coming out mid contest of course. Would it be the same effect for him that Metroid Prime 3 would have had on Samus mid contest, no. People go to bungie for Halo news for the forums statistics and the like.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/31/2007 10:19:45 AM | message detail

Really, the halo series did better? Because I'm pretty sure its ass handed to it by Castlevania.
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Osfan | Posted 8/31/2007 10:50:12 AM | message detail

Looking back the series stats look really messed up not that it matters. Guess Metal Gear didn't help. Either way just makes MC look like more of a joke if you ask me.

Yeah i have to say that I would gladly throw in the towel on my bracket to see MC lose early i mean like round 1 early. ;-) A complete choke job the Halo fans all playing to busy to vote lol. So on topic i pose this question a few days before the new contest:

What match would you take the loss in points or chance at greatness to see go against your bracket?

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dethfdddddh | Posted 8/31/2007 12:13:42 PM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

steve illumina | Posted 8/31/2007 12:13:49 PM | message detail

Oooh...2 more nights til the first analysis by yours truly, the Sage of Board 8.

I hope everyone is excited to read the finest analysis on the site, right here, on the Stats thread.

Only 2 days away, my loyal fans, and my ever loving noobs! :)
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voltch | Posted 8/31/2007 1:06:07 PM | message detail

the topics are gonna really start to fill up fast within a few days now.
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satai_delenn | Posted 8/31/2007 2:40:37 PM | message detail

Well, I finally finished my bracket. 'Bout time.

Here's a question for you guys; I realize this has probably already been discussed, but I don't have time to go back and read the whole topic. >_> Does Serge have any chance at all to get out of round 1? I debated for a while, because I don't have very much faith in Pikachu, but I feel like Tidus could be SFFing Serge a bit, and CC seems to have wildly fluctuating amounts of popularity, with opinions ranging from "best game ever" to "worst game ever." Besides all which, Pikachu has mass recognizability that Serge probably doesn't.

I ended up taking Tidus > Pikachu, but I still feel like I could have taken Tidus > Serge and not been entirely off...thoughts?
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2007 2:42:39 PM | message detail

Serge has a chance, but almost nobody is taking it. only the Pokemon haters are going for it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 2:44:53 PM | message detail

meh, I don't even know where to put Serge. now you got me thinking.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2007 2:48:42 PM | message detail

I'm surprised more people aren't picking Serge. The yellow rat is hardly the epitome of strength, and Chrono Cross, if not well loved, is at least well known around here.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2007 2:53:51 PM | message detail

I couldn't find any recent PotDs where CC was by itself, unfortunately, but I did find this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=366

Epic 4 vote win, huzzah CT! There's 2 other 2000 polls that show a fairly high opinion of CC, but that was quite a long time ago.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2007 2:55:01 PM | message detail

augh chrono sff
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 2:57:49 PM | message detail

real hard to say though. I think with Tidus in there, though, it'll be hard for him anyhow.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2007 3:00:32 PM | message detail

That's silly. Enough of the site likes Square that two Square characters won't have a problem advancing, especially against weak competition.

I think Serge'll be fodder and that's why he'll lose, but it's easy to argue the other way.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/31/2007 3:04:44 PM | message detail

It's tough to say how strong Chrono Cross is on this site, but I'm not expecting much out of its characters. Any other POTDs featuring CC?
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2007 3:11:29 PM | message detail

all the CC polls are incredibly old.

Poll 362 (11/25/2000)
Which is the best Squaresoft game of all time outside of the regular Final Fantasy series?

1768 13.96% Chrono Cross
4287 33.86% Chrono Trigger
1556 12.29% Final Fantasy Tactics
161 1.27% Legend of Mana
578 4.57% Parasite Eve
84 0.66% Secret of Evermore
728 5.75% Secret of Mana
378 2.99% Seiken Densetsu 3
440 3.48% Vagrant Story
2165 17.10% Xenogears
516 4.08% Other

CC > FFT represent
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 3:22:06 PM | message detail

so he could actually be as strong as that uh.. what's his name FFT Ramza guy.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/31/2007 3:27:48 PM | message detail

Eh, I took Serge over Pikachu and I'm still feeling confident over it. Not so confident about Vincent over Crono, though. >_>
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2007 3:28:31 PM | message detail

Ramza (2003c) VS Pikachu (2003c)

Ramza has a strength of 22.31.
Pikachu has a strength of 10.99.

Ramza wins with 75.37% of the vote!
A win of 50,723 with 99,968 total votes cast.

Ramza (2003c) VS Pikachu (2002c)

Ramza has a strength of 22.31.
Pikachu has a strength of 15.32.

Ramza wins with 65.67% of the vote!
A win of 28,753 with 91,770 total votes cast.

neither pikachu number is particularly good, but the point stands
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/31/2007 3:31:20 PM | message detail

I see Pikachu being more around the fodder line level.
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