GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 453
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:23:07 PM | message detail |
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Match #4: Simulated: Link - 43.6% Cloud - 38.1% Snake - 18.2% Actual: Link - 44.65% Cloud - 35.71% Snake - 19.64% Pretty close here. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:24:49 PM | message detail |
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I just realized - get rid of Sephiroth and everything falls in line!
Maybe there's something to that old "Sephiroth is weird" line of
thought, heh. Or not. A knee jerk response would be that Snake is syphoning votes primarily from Sephiroth. If true, I wonder why that is? Bad-ass SFF? <shrugs> Don't have much idea really. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2007 9:25:26 PM | message detail |
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SEPHIROWNED --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2007 9:26:28 PM | message detail |
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Looks like the Snake > Sephiroth bandwagon is gettin' fired up again ALL ABOARD --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2007 9:28:48 PM | message detail |
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Ewww Statistics makes my head hurt =( Interesting numbers for the Battle Royale predictions compared to actual results. And as for votals, you have to remember that this contest season is going to have way bigger releases than last year. MP3 just came out, Halo 3, SMG and Guitar Hero 3 out during it, then Brawl on the horizon directly afterwards. Compared to what.... FF12 and GeoW last time? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2007 9:30:43 PM | message detail |
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Thats very interesting how Snake just seems to have drained Sephy. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2007 9:36:31 PM | message detail |
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More like Samus > Seph. It's happening. 2008. --- Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic. The Analysis Crew...believe |
| ZFS | Posted 8/27/2007 9:37:44 PM | message detail |
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Mario Galaxy isn't going to make it out by the time the contest ends. --- Who Dares Wins |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2007 9:38:43 PM | message detail |
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Isn't it first week of November? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/27/2007 9:41:48 PM | message detail |
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Galaxy comes out the 12th - the contest ends around the 6th, I think. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/27/2007 9:52:42 PM | message detail |
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I just realized - get rid of Sephiroth and everything falls in line!
Maybe there's something to that old "Sephiroth is weird" line of
thought, heh. Or not. If your formulas are accurate, maybe it's because the fanbase split between Cloud and Sephiroth are so high... notice how Cloud and Sephiroth have both lost quite a bit of percentage, while Link and Snake increased for Day 3. Perhaps the fanbase-split is less apparent when there are more characters in a poll. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2007 10:04:29 PM | message detail |
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Ah Anyways, just looking over my bracket one last time before posting it in the Guru topic, and I realized that Mega Man will be sharing the poll with Samus, Bowser and Cloud. My first reaction when I did my bracket was to take Samus here for second, but looking at jit now, I realize Bowser is there, and Samus isn't THAT much higher than Mega Man. Think I'll take another upset here and pick Mega Man to eliminate Smaus TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| ZFS | Posted 8/27/2007 10:45:52 PM | message detail |
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"one less bracket to worry about" --- Who Dares Wins |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2007 11:00:02 PM | message detail |
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If your bracket was a profile in Zelda 2, I would assume it would be elimination mode'd in the quarter finals. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| redrocket | Posted 8/27/2007 11:51:46 PM | message detail |
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http://bighugelabs.com/flickr/output/motivator60658.jpg --- http://www.pacifier.com/~zen/creepy.jpg http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/5/56/250px-Clock_Spider.jpg |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 8/28/2007 1:50:04 AM | message detail |
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Those simulations look to be pretty good. As match #4 shows, it's
Sephiroth that messes things up. Almost certainly due to the shared
fanbase with Cloud. Plug in two characters from different games with
the strength of those two, and everyone else in the poll is going to be
getting a lower percentage. Mario doing about what the sims suggest isn't really a sign that Link isn't hurting him in particular. Just that Cloud/Sephiroth being in there helps him (and everyone else) more so. Not really a surprise, since I'm sure most would agree the FF7 fanbase would be more concentrated than general Nintendo. Snake's performance could be the result of having a more loyal fanbase, but it's not hard to be loyal when none of the other characters in the poll are similar to him. You have severely overlapping fanbases in every round except for the last, where Snake does about what is expected. You'll notice that the difference between his sim and actual percentage closes with each elimination (reducing the overlap between his opponents), with the big jump being the elimination of half the FF7 pair. |
| voltch | Posted 8/28/2007 2:30:05 AM | message detail |
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is cloud>megaman really that unlikely? i wonder if bowser can just take a few votes off samus. --- Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest. |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/28/2007 2:49:47 AM | message detail |
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is cloud>megaman really that unlikely? i wonder if bowser can just take a few votes off samus. Megaman functions as a nintendo character in these contest, the way he SFF Yoshi to hell would lead you to believe so. If Bowser can take off votes off Samus, he sure as well will also take off votes from Megaman. Samus has Metroid prime 3 to boost her strength while on the hand, it is not too much of a stretch to say Mega Man drops again by a small margin this year. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2007 3:28:15 AM | message detail |
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anyone think Gordon and Duke will split; or worst case scenario, split worse enough to let Ike squeak by? --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| greatone10 | Posted 8/28/2007 3:41:55 AM | message detail |
| Duke is total cannon fodder these days, so it
won't take much for Ike to grab second place. I don't think he can get
by Gordon until SSBB actually comes out though. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/28/2007 7:36:27 AM | message detail |
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Gordon SFF someone? Are you crazy? The only character that crowd he
might steal votes from is the Alyx Vance voters, and I'm not sure but I
think that Alyx is a fan favourite, so sorry Gordon.... --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2007 8:46:55 AM | message detail |
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As is, I'm rolling with the gut feeling I had of Bowser > Mewtwo. Don't fail me now, Pokemon fanbase..... ...I still think this is the most ludicrous reasoning ever, to think the Pokemon fanbase is more independent and loyal to Mewtwo compared to Mario and Bowser than the Street Fighter fanbase is to Ryu. From your line of reasoning, you'd think Bowser doubled Ryu or something. And he probably WOULD double Mewtwo head-to-head, at least. I still don't have ANY idea where you're coming from on this one. If you threw Pokemon against Super Mario Bros. instead of Metroid in the Series Contest, it would've gotten destroyed. It would NOT have avoided severe SFF. And if you're doubting Bowser's SFFing ability for some reason because of the Favorite Mario poll, you just need to be reminded of what he did to Ness. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2007 8:47:40 AM | message detail |
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Also, you'd have to think that Pokemon fans care much more about the
games than any Pokemon, even if it IS Mewtwo. I don't think Pokemon
fans will have any qualms about voting for Bowser. --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| transience | Posted 8/28/2007 8:49:13 AM | message detail |
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eh, Mewtwo isn't Ness. if you think he's considerably stronger, then
hey, go for it. I'd never make the pick, but the Pokemon fanbase does
indeed seem dedicated on this website. --- "There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2007 8:50:51 AM | message detail |
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...Why? Because Metroid didn't SFF it? WHAT A SHOCK! --- "I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work." |
| transience | Posted 8/28/2007 8:52:51 AM | message detail |
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it has nothing to do with polls, really. just look around the boards.
not just this one, either. there are a LOT of crazy Pokemon fans. if
you think people anti-vote the series, then that's even more of a
reason for it to do well in this format. and Pokemon being equal to Metroid is rather impressive, if you ask me. not disappointing on Metroid's part. well.. maybe a little of both, but I was more impressed by Pokemon than I was disappointed with Metroid. --- "There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2007 8:54:45 AM | message detail |
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Didn't I already say I would change my pick if I didn't already decide
I'm not making any more changes, in the same post as what you quoted at
that? I mean, if you want, I can still try to defend my initial
feelings later tonight if you still care..... --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/28/2007 8:57:46 AM | message detail |
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It'd still be a huge stretch to take Mewtwo when there are two other
Nintendo characters in the poll, both from more popular franchises, and
one of them significantly stronger than anything Mewtwo can muster.
Similarly, you've got a much stronger character in Ryu who is going to
have a hardcore fanbase as well. Just doesn't make a whole lot of sense
to side with Mewtwo there. --- Who Dares Wins |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2007 9:25:25 AM | message detail |
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It's going to be so sad if Mewtwo is the only Pokemon to fail to make it to the third round. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Topic - http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37528396 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2007 9:32:08 AM | message detail |
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I still don't think Ryu's fanbase is that hardcore -- he's landed 40%
in every match, sure, but that's a fun-fact rather than something that
will be especially beneficial here. Bowser 60-40'd Ryu when it should
have been 50-50, and SF is becoming less and less significant around
here with no new releases in years and SF dropping even more in the
Capcom-poll. Ryu got ~35% in a SF-poll with mostly jobbers compared to
him...sure, that's nice, but that doesn't strike me as fan-favorite
status. I'll take the Auron's, Yoshi's, and Knuckles both strength-wise
and being more loved in their own series before I put Ryu in that same
league. Bowser's not necessarily a fan-favorite, but we've seen what he
can do to Ryu before so I'm not so worried about that. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/28/2007 9:54:39 AM | message detail |
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It's going to be so sad if Mewtwo is the only Pokemon to fail to make it to the third round. Huh, so you have Bidoof going to third round when he has to face Vincent, Zelda and Link in that Round. |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2007 12:09:15 PM | message detail |
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And you have Mudkip getting to the third round over Luigi and Ganondorf. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2007 12:57:34 PM | message detail |
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Think he meant to say second round. And it wouldn't be sad, it would be hilarious. The only Pokemon that do anything this year are 2 joke entries and the yellow rat himself. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2007 12:59:55 PM | message detail |
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And I think this whole "Could > Samus is a lock" is the typical
board mentality to a character not performing to their expectations in
the previous contest. Had the Squall/Sora/Aeris fourpack been last
year, I guarentee you noone would have picked Sora due to his
underperformance on Snake. Same goes for any character that has a questionable performance. I mean, some people have Raiden beating out Zero in that fourpack. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2007 1:47:52 PM | message detail |
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Why did I write third round? It's actually the second round. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Topic - http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37528396 |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/28/2007 1:52:29 PM | message detail |
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And I think this whole "Could > Samus is a lock" is the typical
board mentality to a character not performing to their expectations in
the previous contest. Had the Squall/Sora/Aeris fourpack been last
year, I guarentee you noone would have picked Sora due to his
underperformance on Snake. Same goes for any character that has a questionable performance. I mean, some people have Raiden beating out Zero in that fourpack. That's the nature of this topic. Someone has a bad year and they let the hounds out against them. Ignoring the fact that I blatantly used the same thing to hype up my Bowser > Snake train in 2k5. It almost worked dammit... --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2007 1:55:01 PM | message detail |
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The only reason I picked Sora > Aeris is because i figured Squall and Sora would dominate the SFF on her ass. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/28/2007 1:56:13 PM | message detail |
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Sora's done so well in his SFF matches, too! Especially against Aerith. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/28/2007 1:58:02 PM | message detail |
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Hey man. That was a long time ago. KH2 boost has been on deck for a couple years now, so he can powah through. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2007 1:59:14 PM | message detail |
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That's pre-KH2 Sora, who was a whiny little wiener like Teedus. Since
KH2, he's gotten alot more likable/mature, which is key in SFF matches
(as evidenced by Squall/Tidus and Auron/Crono) TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/28/2007 2:05:51 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait for a Mega Man / Samus match with a ZSS picture. aw yeah. --- xyzzy now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| Buzzup | Posted 8/28/2007 2:28:20 PM | message detail |
| I think it's weird that almost nobody has Leon>Dante, what's with Leon having RE4: Wii since the last contest and the nintendo support in the poll (unless Pikachu sneaks by, but we all know that won't happen!) , you'd think more people would consider it. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/28/2007 3:32:41 PM | message detail |
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Leon wasn't even close to Dante immediately after he got RE4 GC, and still wasn't the year after when it was ported to the PS2. It would take a massive boost to put Leon over Dante and I very very highly doubt RE4 Wii is even nearly enough to do it. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Starion | Posted 8/28/2007 3:34:11 PM | message detail |
| But RE4 started as a Gamecube game. Any additional
fans Leon might get from the Nintendo contingent (as a result of the
Wii version) will be fairly small. BTW, only three days left to change brackets. This is the perfect time to sow some confusion and doubt. Make people switch their choices all over the place. --- 100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/28/2007 3:36:44 PM | message detail |
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Dante was tied with Yoshi, and Leon got 45% on Bowser. There's certainly not a "massive" difference between them. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2007 3:37:03 PM | message detail |
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Make people switch their choices all over the place. We call this "The Ulti" --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| Buzzup | Posted 8/28/2007 3:41:36 PM | message detail |
| It all depends on how you view the relation between Bowser and Yoshi. Are they tied now or is Bowser still somewhat significantly stronger? The larger the difference between the two, the better Leon looks vs. Dante. And hey, Resident Evil is Capcom's most popular series and Leon has some Nintendo fanbase. I'm not saying Dante shouldn't be the favourite, because he clearly should, I'm just saying Leon shouldn't be counted out. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2007 3:42:35 PM | message detail |
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Hmmmm...what does this topic think about Vyse/Nightmare? --- Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3 |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2007 3:43:08 PM | message detail |
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Pirates > Knights --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| Buzzup | Posted 8/28/2007 3:46:41 PM | message detail |
| I don't know about Vyse/Nightmare, it could go either way. Vyse has the more dedicated fanbase I think, but SoA is already 7 years old and not getting more popular, and Vyse/Tifa doesn't really inspire any confidence in the blue rogue. |
