GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 453
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/27/2007 12:24:40 PM | message detail |
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Yuna also did worse on Ganondorf than Alucard...same caveats apply, though. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:25:59 PM | message detail |
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I had forgotten about Ganon/Alucard, ha. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 12:29:36 PM | message detail |
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I'd say that non PS1 fans are few and far between here, though. However, the big deal is that even in that case, Ness is that much more likely
to be hurt by the Twin Snakes, which we usually write off as a
non-factor, since these people couldn't have played the game on PS1,
and it's huge to just ignore. As for Liquid in the villains contest... absolutely I'd think him against Seph was an anomaly, we've seen what FF7 and MGS do. I'd think it'd be a pretty big one, but... it really can't be, looking at Lavos vs Liquid the round before. Well, I don't buy Lavos getting 45% on you to be anything that makes you look good. Not that we can truly know for sure. Just intuition tells me that the porcupine can't be that strong. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:32:41 PM | message detail |
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Oh, because it caused controversy once and will again after one of my
last posts...if I hadn't already considered my bracket to be locked
down now, I would take Bowser > Ryu for similar reasoning that I'm
taking Ness to get first instead of second. As is, I'm rolling with the
gut feeling I had of Bowser > Mewtwo. Don't fail me now, Pokemon fanbase..... --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:39:21 PM | message detail |
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The two times we saw Liquid already was in 2k4 (Solid's worst year yet
Liquid's best) and the Villain Contest (where, outside of Tenpenny, he
looked bad). Both of those times were after MGS:TTS came out...and I'm
curious to see how much that it means for him: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2179 About 27% of the site has played and beaten MGS:TTS, though 20% had beaten it on the original version too (I bet most of them beat the original version first). For Liquid being a NPC and MGS:TTS being the less-favored of the two versions, I wonder how much it's going to cut into Ness's votes. I wouldn't imagine very much, though in a match like this it shouldn't be ignored. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 12:50:33 PM | message detail |
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Well, the thing is... yes, only 28% of GameFAQs went for the Twin Snakes, and a mere 8% only beat the GC version. However, you've gotta figure that a huge chunk of that second number would be the Ness voters that haven't played the PS that some Ness people are banking on. I mean, you gotta figure, that was the target audience for this game... people who haven't played the original yet. 8% may be a small number, but honestly, in this type of poll where that might exceed some %ages of contestants, it's significant. And more importantly, I don't think the fraction of GameFAQs that are Ness fans from SSB/SSBM and at the same time have not touched the PS1 is much higher. PS1 ownership on this site is pretty bloody high, this ain't the TurboGrafx-16 we're trying to isolate here. --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2007 1:04:23 PM | message detail |
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Little Mac was thought of being Tanner-level fodder for years By who? Little Mac got 15% on Link. Did Tanner even break 4% on Snake? --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2007 1:10:44 PM | message detail |
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And Lopen's sig is the best. --- Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148 Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/27/2007 1:23:25 PM | message detail |
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The 2007 Guru Contest is up! If you've got it down to the point where you won't be making any more changes, then it's time to submit your Guru bracket! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37824186 Otherwise if there's picks you still might waffle on, no worries, you have until Sunday to get it in. --- thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest! |
| Starion | Posted 8/27/2007 1:25:03 PM | message detail |
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Tanner got 5.7% I believe. Besides, that Link-Little Mac match is very old (low vote totals). --- 100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 1:34:56 PM | message detail |
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*Looks back a few pages to see MNM talking about the Scorp/Midna fourpack* I know what your getting at, but I wouldn't underestimate Midna by any means either. She had a very strong role in Twilight Princess and I feel she has enough potential to beat out Frog and Scorp to Round 3.Frog and Scorp definitely can get there as well, but unless Midna pulls a Kerrigan(which is almost impossible), I'll take a shot with her. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2007 1:48:55 PM | message detail |
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unless Midna pulls a Kerrigan(which is almost impossible), I'll take a shot with her. This is ridiculous. Midna doesn't have to be anywhere close to Kerrigan (or even to defying most people's expectations of her) to lose to Frog or Scorpion. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 1:51:06 PM | message detail |
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I was just throwing a ludicrous example out there just to state what
Midna's NOT going to do. Which is why the parenthesis was included. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| DarkAura33 | Posted 8/27/2007 1:54:58 PM | message detail |
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I'm stuck with Divison 5. I have: 1. Luigi 2. Ganondorf 1. Yuna 2. MC Not sure who advances! --- Friend Codes in Quote |
| smitelf | Posted 8/27/2007 2:20:12 PM | message detail |
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From DarkAura33 I'm stuck with Divison 5. I have: 1. Luigi 2. Ganondorf 1. Yuna 2. MC Not sure who advances! This is one of the hardest matches to call of the entire contest, and also one of the most critical given how late in the game it is. The BOP has Ganondorf > MC, but it all depends on how much you trust MC to be > Yuna after Halo 3 and how much you trust Ganondorf to take enough of Luigi's vote to allow MC (or Yuna) to squeeze in. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2007 2:25:56 PM | message detail |
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I know what your getting at, but I wouldn't underestimate Midna by
any means either. She had a very strong role in Twilight Princess and I
feel she has enough potential to beat out Frog and Scorp to Round
3.Frog and Scorp definitely can get there as well, but unless Midna
pulls a Kerrigan(which is almost impossible), I'll take a shot with
her. Oh, I wasn't arguing against Midna or anything. I was arguing against the prepostorous notion that Scorpion doesn't have any real fans. You don't become a solid midcarder by jumping in and saying "hay guyz, I'm well known vote for me!". Scorpion is a midcarder because people actually like him. He certainly isn't going to fold in and lose all support to the likes of Midna and Frog. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 2:57:39 PM | message detail |
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well, in that villain multi-poll, Diablo placed behind both CATS and Kefka. it's not as ridiculous as it sounds. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 8/27/2007 4:13:46 PM | message detail |
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I'm stuck with Divison 5. I have: 1. Luigi 2. Ganondorf 1. Yuna 2. MC Not sure who advances! MC will finish last in that four-pack, the competition is just too stiff and he's notorious for choking. Right now I have Ganondorf > Yuna in that four-pack. What's going to be interesting is whoever loses the Nintendo SFF will finish third (due to a solitary Square character being there) and I figure that will be Luigi. Luigi, to me, doesn't seem like the one to pull in votes due to hero/villan SFF...the guy lost an SFF match to Yoshi which to me shows weakness. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2007 5:51:50 PM | message detail |
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heh, this poll's gonna hit like 130,000 votes. darn you ninja fanboys --- xyzzy now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2007 6:01:22 PM | message detail |
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Ryu H. winning the contest! Berieve --- Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic. The Analysis Crew...believe |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 6:24:50 PM | message detail |
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heh, this poll's gonna hit like 130,000 votes. with that said, I'm going to increase my tiebreaker. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 6:26:00 PM | message detail |
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..the guy lost an SFF match to Yoshi which to me shows weakness. you have to remember: he still beat Kirby. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2007 6:26:32 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2007 6:27:25 PM | message detail |
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MM just posted one of my new favorite posts on GameFAQs. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2007 6:28:39 PM | message detail |
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Poll: one on one against Ganondorf, would would do the best? Luigi, Yoshi, Kirby, or Bowser? --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/27/2007 6:30:10 PM | message detail |
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All lose, but Yoshi does the best. --- Who Dares Wins |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2007 6:30:57 PM | message detail |
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nah, Bowser does best. he's the strongest. --- xyzzy now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 6:52:45 PM | message detail |
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I think Yoshi and Bowser would have similar numbers. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| Starion | Posted 8/27/2007 6:54:04 PM | message detail |
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Bowser. Villain SFF in his favor. >_> --- 100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego |
| ZFS | Posted 8/27/2007 6:55:15 PM | message detail |
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nah, Bowser does best. he's the strongest. If he is, it's by the tiniest of margins. --- Who Dares Wins |
| Tediz247 | Posted 8/27/2007 7:24:51 PM | message detail |
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Possibly worth noting: This poll's votals are really freaking huge. If
it's any indication of what we'll be seeing in the contest... my
tiebreaker that I thought was shooting a bit high might actually be on
the low side. --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end. ZSB [aX] |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2007 7:25:49 PM | message detail |
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nah. Kleenex was going through polls earlier - want to know what the last high-vote total poll was? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2820 not a coincidence. --- xyzzy now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 7:32:24 PM | message detail |
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hmm.. with these votals, you don't think we could possibly reach.. 200k? --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2007 7:33:19 PM | message detail |
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Why stop there? I believe 300K is in the realm of possibility. --- Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic. The Analysis Crew...believe |
| ZFS | Posted 8/27/2007 7:35:03 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2562 160,000 were the most we got last year in the Battle Royale. I wouldn't be expecting a huge leap from that, especially considering it got that many with six of the most popular characters. --- Who Dares Wins |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2007 7:36:34 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2854 =( IIRC, these goofy polls always draw votes. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Tediz247 | Posted 8/27/2007 7:38:23 PM | message detail |
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The "Did you enter?" poll makes sense because only people with an
account would bother voting, probably. Here was the one the day before
last year's entries closed: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2496 --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end. ZSB [aX] |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 7:41:13 PM | message detail |
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that poll was last year, however, and before the Wii released. I think it could happen. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/27/2007 7:43:19 PM | message detail |
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Look at the research options in last year's and this year's polls. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2487 + http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2854 = Fear the casuals this year! --- Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic. The Analysis Crew...believe |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/27/2007 7:44:56 PM | message detail |
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board 8 is so screwed --- xyzzy now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 7:50:10 PM | message detail |
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Xuxon: Man, creativename, I keep thinking about how to translate single character strength but it always just makes my head hurt. Probably because I keep thinking there's some way to sort out all the combinations of inequalities (ie. Cloud > Terra > Mega Man > Ryu) with Bernouli's theorem using all the combinations of hypothetical 1v1 match-ups. And for all I know, I'd just end up getting the linear weighting. Well it's definitely not a linear weighting. It just works out as A/B/2 in a 2-way matchup; a generalized version of the same formula would not be a linear weighting. I didn't realize it before because I never really thought about it. Wow I'm getting rusty... Bayes' theorem, not Bernouli's. I didn't catch that, I knew what you meant :) Ngamer: creative, would you mind using the latest numbers we have available for Cloud/Seph/Link/Mario/Snake/Samus and plugging them into your Excel sheet, so we could see how closely that formula mimics the actual results we saw in the BR? Or if you only have it set up for the 4-way, even just seeing Snake/Seph/Link/Cloud would be interesting. Sure, I'll do that in a bit. Though I don't have a formula, that's the problem - if you have any ideas let me know. Right now I'm doing it by simulation. Karma Hunter: This is ridiculous. Midna doesn't have to be anywhere close to Kerrigan (or even to defying most people's expectations of her) to lose to Frog or Scorpion. You are absolutely right. Thing is I can see Midna beating Frog if Frog has dropped over time, but I don't see her being able to beat Scorpion. I really don't think Midna is a good pick for 2nd there. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2007 8:04:12 PM | message detail |
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Thing is I can see Midna beating Frog if Frog has dropped over time,
but I don't see her being able to beat Scorpion. I really don't think
Midna is a good pick for 2nd there. Are you forgetting that Scorpion is equal to Ness? He's no Sub-Zero. Midna being as weak as Ness is kinda meh. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:02:26 PM | message detail |
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As requested, I did did a simulation-based x-stats forecast for the Battle Royale, using classical x-stats theory. Using 2K5 strengths of 50% for Link, 47.56% for Cloud, 45.06% for Sephiroth, 39.59% for Mario, 38.21% for Samus, and giving Snake 35.84 based on his 46.89% against Samus in 2K6 just before the Battle Royale. Simulation results: Link - 29.7% Cloud - 24.6% Sephiroth - 20.3% Mario - 10.7% Samus - 8.8% Snake - 6% Actual: Link - 27.41% Cloud - 23.71% Sephiroth - 16.43% Mario - 11.59% Samus - 7.74% Snake - 13.12% A quick glance shows Snake did vastly better than the simulation (indicating some sort of fanbase independence or loyalty for him), Sephiroth underperformed presumably due to SFF, and Mario actually didn't do very different from simulation, so he probably wasn't actually SFFed by Link after all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/27/2007 9:11:38 PM | message detail |
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That is really interesting. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 9:12:43 PM | message detail |
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I have a feeling SFF isn't quite the same in multi person polls...which outta make this contest quite interesting. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 9:13:00 PM | message detail |
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so Mario would have done the same without Link? --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:16:05 PM | message detail |
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Match #2: Simulated: Link - 31.5% Cloud - 26.2% Sephiroth - 22.1% Mario - 12.5% Snake - 7.8% Actual: Link - 34.91% Cloud - 24.27% Sephiroth - 14.87% Snake - 14.76% Mario - 11.18% Once again, Snake get almost double and Sephiroth does much worse. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:17:27 PM | message detail |
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so Mario would have done the same without Link? No, he would have done much better, simply because someone as strong as Link is like a black hole devouring votes. It's just that Link probably didn't specifically hurt Mario much, if at all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Starion | Posted 8/27/2007 9:19:40 PM | message detail |
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A knee jerk response would be that Snake is syphoning votes primarily
from Sephiroth. If true, I wonder why that is? Bad-ass SFF? --- 100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego |
| creativename | Posted 8/27/2007 9:20:48 PM | message detail |
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Match #3: Simulated: Link - 34.7% Cloud - 29.3% Sephiroth - 25.2% Snake - 10.8% Actual: Link - 42.68% Cloud - 23.70% Sephiroth - 16.79% Snake - 16.83% Very different results than the simulation here. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
