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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 453

transience | Posted 8/26/2007 10:28:57 PM | message detail
Amaterasu would have a better chance if her name was "Okami." a LOT better chance.
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2007 10:35:35 PM | message detail
Amaterasu would have a better chance if her name was "Okami." a LOT better chance.

I think she'd be the clear favorite for 2nd then.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/26/2007 10:37:42 PM | message detail
He's already got the strength to hang in there for at least second -- Ness doesn't have to rely on such a vote-drawing ability. He's not so far behind Alucard, close to Liquid, and would almost certainly beat Zidane. Also, EB landed #37 on the Top 100 List and made it into the Game Contest despite the horrible nomination-format while Ness has done fair enough with seeding...so those may help him in this format. Ness is already on solid ground...

...we can THEN consider that he's the only Nintendo character of the four while the others are mainly on the PS1. We can THEN consider that Ness is big in three games for two series, which is more than the others can say. We can THEN consider that SSBM is bigger than MGS, C:SotN, or FF9 here. We can THEN say that half the site has gotten a Wii in the last year and SSBB is easily the most anticipated game for both the Wii and GameFAQs right now. Heck, though I doubt it's much, but doesn't starmen.net support him in matches too? That's a lot of x-factors in his favor for a controversial four-pack.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2007 10:41:21 PM | message detail
If you're using the fact that SSBM is more popular than a given game on this site to pick its lesser characters in a match, you've already made up your mind. And I have Ness advancing.
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2007 10:43:28 PM | message detail
I just did some theoretical 4-way analysis that I had neglected to ever do for the Battle Royale. I figured a simple linear weighting in terms of strength made sense, though I also believed exponential weighting would be possible; but I didn't know how that would come about from a uniform random variable theoretical base, which is what I was using. And of course in the end the Battle Royale did support exponential weighting. But I never bothered to look deeper into it.

But I just recently did, and got some surprising results. The logic I used was the same uniform random variable logic I used before (see http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/11).

For instance, assume there are four random variables, Cloud, Mega Man, Ryu, and Terra. Assume their (mean) strength's are 47.6%, 35.5%, 27.5%, and 17%. Thus their realized values are between [0, .952], [0, .71], [0, .55], and [0, .34]. This mimics voter preferences - the model is that for each voter, each character gets a random value between their ranges, and the character with the highest realized value receives the vote.

The question then becomes how to predict this formulaically over scale, given the strength values. I haven't worked on the formula yet, but what I've seen so far is noteworthy.

In Excel I did 30,000 instances of these 4 variables, and got the following results in terms of voting:

Cloud - 55.07%
Mega Man - 28.62%
Ryu - 13.83%
Terra - 2.47% (!!)

Whereas with linear weighting (take each character proportionately), the results are:

Cloud - 37.3%
Mega Man - 27.8%
Ryu - 21.6%
Terra - 13.3%

The "real theoretical" results are clearly much more skewed than the linear weighting results, or the results of a 2-way match. This is clearly seen with Terra - she'd be expected to get 17.9% against Cloud; even if you divide that by 2 because the number of characters has doubled, you get 8.9%. Yet the uniform random variable results here have her getting a measly, pathetic, stupendously bad 2.5%!

Now I don't know how well this applies to the actual voting - SFF is the biggest problem in reality vs. theory for 2-way battles, and it should be even worse for 4-way. And I figure, someone like Terra in this example has got to have some fanbase loyalty, right? There has to be some sort of "friction" against someone being *that* weak, right?

But the theoretical results here support the notion of a lot of funky results, because when you will have 1 strong character and 3 weak ones, the strong character is just going to gobble up all the votes. And all sorts of factors could account for differences at the vote-difference levels we'll be seeing between the weaker characters.

At some point I'll try and figure out some formulaic way of approaching this. Others are free to give their thoughts and ideas as well.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2007 10:44:24 PM | message detail
Ammy will only get second because of how weak the competition is in his four-pack (yes, I know it's been said a lot in many four-packs, but it's truth at times). I'm thinking the picture will be a factor, though the Okami box-art image seems to be the obvious one to consider.

Little Mac was thought of being Tanner-level fodder for years and has not made ANY appearance in these contests since nominations from users were allowed. It's been five years since he made an appearance and that was only because CJayC liked him enough to put him in the bracket he made himself. That's what I took into consideration when I though of his chances.

Matt just comes off as a borderline-joke character to me. Obviously he's not like CATS or Midgar Zolom where everyone voted him as "lol", but the constant "Vote Matt!" topics on Board 8 just gave me that vibe. I'm thinking he's pure fodder as well being somewhere in the bottom the list once all is said and done.

Just my thoughts.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/26/2007 10:48:04 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 8/26/2007 10:52:48 PM | message detail
For awhile, I didn't even have Ness advancing. That said, notice I made my solid argument first to see him advance. The rest of the stuff is merely x-factor stuff that may bump him a bit more from my assumed position of second to my assumed position of first, and I consider the combination of it all quite possible to do it for Ness.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/26/2007 10:53:48 PM | message detail
I took Alucard > Ness on gut impulse. I have no idea what to think of that match anymore.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/26/2007 10:54:58 PM | message detail
I went from Alucard > Ness to Alucard > Liquid to Ness > Alucard.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/26/2007 10:56:26 PM | message detail
Alucard > Ness is the safe pic here. I'll stick with my safe pic.
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Lopen | Posted 8/26/2007 11:08:19 PM | message detail
The thing with Ness is... I just don't see him having much of a diehard backing from SSBM, which would be the majority of his "strength." He's just another character in a cast full of stars. Yeah, he was fairly popular in the game in SSB... but I'd say in SSBM his use went down pretty significantly, no?

Against strong characters, he's got Earthbound to not make him crumble so much. Against weak characters, he's got the "SSBM, cool" vote. We've never seen Ness against an established midcarder, and I think in that situation he goes down without a big struggle.

Throw in not one but two established midcarders and Zidane, who probably isn't much worse competition than CJ, and I don't see him getting out of there. Now, if you wanna call it on Ness's strength, that's fine. What I said was certainly debatable. But a lot of people are picking him just because he's a Nintendo character vs 3 PS characters... and Liquid deals with that problem nicely, methinks.
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redrocket | Posted 8/26/2007 11:55:31 PM | message detail
Anyone have sales figures for Okami?
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/27/2007 12:14:59 AM | message detail
Anyone have sales figures for Okami?

200,000 for US and 66,000 for Japan.
redrocket | Posted 8/27/2007 12:16:46 AM | message detail
Interesting how it sold more in the US....
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:18:52 AM | message detail
Guys there is one thing that is making me doubt Kefka > Marcus now...and that is Kefka/Vercetti. Whose to say Marcus won't be on Vercetti's level?
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redrocket | Posted 8/27/2007 12:20:31 AM | message detail
Whose to say he won't be on Agent 47's level? Who knows?
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Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 12:22:39 AM | message detail
And who's to say Zelos won't thump him?

... no I'm not going there again!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:28:34 AM | message detail
Another thing that bothers me as I re-look over my bracket...

A little thing called the fourpack with Ryu H, Riku, and Roxas. First off, how will SFF affect Riku and Roxas, and second off, we saw what happened to Ryu H when he fought Sora about three years back. So can Riku manage to make sure Roxas doesn't take too many votes from him to overcome Ryu H, or can Ryu H make it through here? For the longest time I've had Ryu H > Riku then Snake > Ryu H, but after consideration, I'm starting to favor Riku here.
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Xuxon | Posted 8/27/2007 12:35:51 AM | message detail
Man, creativename, I keep thinking about how to translate single character strength but it always just makes my head hurt. Probably because I keep thinking there's some way to sort out all the combinations of inequalities (ie. Cloud > Terra > Mega Man > Ryu) with Bernouli's theorem using all the combinations of hypothetical 1v1 match-ups. And for all I know, I'd just end up getting the linear weighting.
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Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 12:35:51 AM | message detail
Meh, I think it's more the case that Ryu Hayabusa is just that weak in his Arabusa form. I don't buy any fishy interactions between Kingdom Hearts and Ninja Gaiden. I've got Ryu Hayabusa doing exactly what you do, and I'm not too worried.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 8/27/2007 12:36:21 AM | message detail
creative, would you mind using the latest numbers we have available for Cloud/Seph/Link/Mario/Snake/Samus and plugging them into your Excel sheet, so we could see how closely that formula mimics the actual results we saw in the BR? Or if you only have it set up for the 4-way, even just seeing Snake/Seph/Link/Cloud would be interesting.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2007 12:37:18 AM | message detail
Anyone have sales figures for Okami?

200,000 for US and 66,000 for Japan.


Note: these figures are 2006 only.

And who's to say Zelos won't thump him?

... no I'm not going there again!


After Sheena vs. Jill, one would think that you had learned...
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:40:07 AM | message detail
So are you counting on Roxas and Riku to SFF one another by chance Lopen? Then what would happen in a fourpack with Snake? I've seen some people bring up Action SFF similiar to Dante/Ryu H, but I'm not so sure that would really come into play.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/27/2007 12:40:54 AM | message detail
Amaterasu could be called "Okami Amaterasu"...

But I suppose if she were going to be, she would be labeled as such on the bracket.

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Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 12:40:58 AM | message detail
Hah! As if I'd learn.

... not to say Mr. Fenix is any Jill Valentine!
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voltch | Posted 8/27/2007 12:41:53 AM | message detail
imagine Riku and Roxas both going through to round 2 just because they are temporary playable characters,especially riku who is playable for only about a single minute.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/27/2007 12:45:48 AM | message detail
Also, I think anyone who doubts Matt the Mii should recall Master Hand.

That match is all it took to convince me <_<

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:49:34 AM | message detail
Another random thought that popped up in my head. Jill/Ocelot. I'll be damned if I can figure this one out. Ocelot has had sub-par showings in the past, Ocelot/Nemesis in particular comes to mind. And let's face it, Peach is honestly no damn joke, so such a close lost to her shouldn't really be embarrassing or anything. And I suppose both characters have small things to gain small boosts on, things like RE4 Wii Edition and MGS4 hype. I'm starting to think Jill can pull it off against Ocelot now though, like my original instinct pointed to.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2007 12:51:15 AM | message detail
I think people forget how visible Master Hand was in his game - you might have heard of it, Super Smash Brothers Melee.

I had MH > Kuja on day one and never thought twice. Matt is in no way comparable.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:52:27 AM | message detail
And the one big time match that bothers me the most...so I've got Dante/Ganon/Leon/Luigi all in one of the big Quarter Finals. Right now I've got Dante > Ganon on the assumption that Luigi will hurt Ganon and siphon some votes. Now one would think that Leon could do the same to Dante. That match is really hurting my head >_>
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/27/2007 12:54:10 AM | message detail
KH has a damn good point. You HAVE to fight Master Hand a lot if you want to unlock a good portion of the goodies in both SSB and SSBM. You don't have to do **** against Matt considering Wii Sports has no unlockables or anything of that nature. It's more or a less a Multiplayer Only game.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 2:59:16 AM | message detail
meh, the match that's killing me now is Midna/Kratos Aurion/Scorpion. I'm kinda stuck between Kratos/Scorpion. sure, Kratos is cult, but if Kratos is a serious fan-favorite, he could win similar to how Kefka won over Diablo in the villain multi-poll.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 8/27/2007 3:27:42 AM | message detail
Kratos Aurion and any ToS character for that matter, ain't winning a damn match. But you fools keep telling yourselves that....
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2007 3:30:08 AM | message detail
oh sure, Scorpion seems like an obvious choice to many because he's stronger, but does he have more hardcore fans? you really have to consider how different this format is going to be.
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Starion | Posted 8/27/2007 5:00:14 AM | message detail
200,000 for US and 66,000 for Japan.

That's actually not too bad for 2006 sales since Okami was released late September. Wonder how much the 2007 figures will add to it?
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therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2007 6:17:39 AM | message detail
oh sure, Scorpion seems like an obvious choice to many because he's stronger, but does he have more hardcore fans? you really have to consider how different this format is going to be.

Uh, there are plenty of gamers who'd vote for Scorpion over the likes of Midna and Kratos Aurion. Mortal Kombat may not be respected, but it still has its fans...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2007 7:00:47 AM | message detail
A character who is basically the Wii given form as a character

...Do you really think people are going to see a picture of a Mii, think, "Dude! That guy represents the Wii and I love the Wii, so I'm going to vote for him!" No, that's just plain ridiculous. Give the voters more credit than that. Their thought processes aren't THAT simplistic.

And I'm with Lopen as far as doubts about the strength of Ness is concerned. We've seen how characters who draw almost entirely from SSB do in these contests, like Falcon and Master Hand. The thing that pushes Ness from fodder to low midcarder is Earthbound. I just wonder when you throw in three characters against him instead of one, how much support he'll get from the Smash Brothers contingent. We've seen that they don't just blindly vote for SSB characters over anything. Their devotion is much greater to the GAME than it is to the characters themselves, especially if the only point of reference they have for Ness is SSB.

Also, I honestly think there's a chance that Liquid is stronger than Alucard now head-to-head. No one really seems to be thinking about the reality of that. If anything, it's close.

I was thinking about this the other day: I really wish that Lloyd and Geno had swapped places. That would've made Zero's fourpack even harder than it already is.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/27/2007 7:01:50 AM | message detail
Alucard's plan is to wreck brackets with his round 2 victory over Master Chief (Yuna unfortunately gets 1st).

Alucard's in no way beating Master Chief. We already saw how much stronger MC is than Alucard last year even when exposed... however, when you mention Alucard... he COULD beat Yuna, if Yuna happens to be at her 2K5 level, rather than her 2K6 level... how intriguing... after all, Yuna didn't do so well in that Favorite FF Hero/ine poll.

As for how the results might be expected to go... I'm expecting it to be rather linear. I have a thought that came to mind that probably isn't a big factor, but maybe it's worth SOMETHING: Maybe the reason why Link dominated so much in the Battle Royale is because he is SUCH a heavy favorite by gamers that he'll dominate in a multi-option poll. It's hard to explain... it's like it's easier to become more of a "favorite" than it is to actually get "stronger" in a 1-on-1 sense once you get to a certain level of popularity, since there's always anti-votes and the like. Yeah, and SFF in the Battle Royale, too.

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Xuxon | Posted 8/27/2007 9:19:20 AM | message detail
Wow I'm getting rusty... Bayes' theorem, not Bernouli's.

About Alucard v MC. I have Yuna > MC in my bracket but I do think Alucard's a possibility. Obviously taking 2k6 at face value you'd pick MC. It just seems like too much of a drop to me. See RPGuy for arguments about MCs supposed "hardcore" fanbase, then add in the fact that Alucard might actually have an unusually devoted fanbase, and it at least seems possible to me.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2007 10:47:41 AM | message detail
Why would Alucard have a devoted fanbase? SotN, sure, but no Alucard...
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 11:43:55 AM | message detail
I've been playing C:SotN on my room-mate's 360 lately and just got over 150% completion...and Alucard is almost as high for me as Ness or Liquid. Not to say he's one of the greatest or anything, but he's pretty damned cool. I can't vote for him in probably any match he gets in for this bracket, but he's definitely likable and vote-worthy for me.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 11:48:44 AM | message detail
As for the devotion towards him...it's possible. He kept over 25% against Cloud and Sephiroth (not necessarily saying SFF, just that they are beasts), C:SotN was #15 in the Top 100 List, I think he's been in some of the newer CV games on the DS, and if the 360 fanbase takes to him as much as they have to somebody like Hayabusa or Bomberman (though it's not like they're pillars of strength) then Alucard should do plenty good from himself. I think him and Ness will be duking it out for first.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Lopen | Posted 8/27/2007 11:48:51 AM | message detail
Alucard's a likable guy. I'd put my money on his fanbase being harder to crack than Yuna's, for sure. But Yuna might have the initial size advantage to help her take second. (Not to say Yuna's not likable... whatever!)

Oho, we were contesting for someone to upset Master Chief? As if.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:03:52 PM | message detail
Oh, for advancing past the SECOND round, Alucard is going to have a hard hard time. Yuna isn't necessarily a big favorite in FFX, but she's one of the few FF characters who starred in two games (one was GotY here two weeks after its release, one was runner-up for GotY) and she really impressed last year; she ended up nearly beating Joanna like Mario and almost matching Aeris on Zelda while statistically outranking Ganon the year after losing 61-39 (while misleading, it's impressive even after consideration). THEN there will also be MC post-Halo 3 and either another PS-character or a Nintendo character to make it more difficult for him.

I'm taking MC > Yuna on that one...Alucard or Ness, maybe, but I don't see either of them making it through past those two this time.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
smitelf | Posted 8/27/2007 12:08:55 PM | message detail
I'm looking at Liquid Snake in lol x-stats, and I'm wondering why the hell he dropped so far in the rankings between 2004 and the 2005 villain contest. Was he just massively overrated in 2004?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/27/2007 12:09:52 PM | message detail
Being behind a Frog who got 48% on sprite Solid Snake will do that to you.
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smitelf | Posted 8/27/2007 12:11:48 PM | message detail
Ah yes, I vaguely recall that hilarity.
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H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:18:05 PM | message detail
Also, just because I'm thinking about it with Ness again...I think a lot of people are not feeling the idea that Ness will succeed based on the "only Nintendo rep" idea, which is perfectly cool. I just also want to point out that Ness might have a touch bigger of an effect than other Nintendo characters in the same situation because there might be a "not a PS1 rep" vibe as well. If you weren't a fan of the PS1 and are on GameFAQs, then you probably had a N64...and since SSB was one of the more popular games on the system, Ness might receive that association by being on a game/system they're familiar with...

...just saying, his situation is different from characters like Ridley due to the other characters being less varied. You can probably find more similarities in Liquid/Alucard/Zidane than Leon/Spyro/Vivi, and it doesn't hurt than Ness himself is more varied than Ridley either. This could make Ness a bit more independent from the other three.


Just a thought though, and I wouldn't count that by itself for much. I'm simply merging it with the "only Nintendo rep" idea and saying it will probably help Ness more than others, however much or little that either factor might mean.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2007 12:21:29 PM | message detail
Wasn't Sephiroth/Liquid SFF a viable idea once upon a time? I think Liquid easily undershot EVERY prediction we had to go by in that match...

...and, speaking of Liquid/Sephiroth, I think Liquid did noticeably worse against an arguably weaker Sephiroth in 2k5 than Alucard did against Sephiroth in 2k3. They're old matches now, the format's different, they might have risen/dropped, possible anomalies, blah...but that still happened, so it's food for thought.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
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