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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 453

Ngamer64 | Posted 8/29/2007 10:39:42 AM | message detail
Not only is Street Fighter II Turbo a Top 20 Virtual Console download, and has been ever since its release, SFII (the Hyper Fighting version) is also the highest-selling Xbox Live Arcade title since that service started up, due to the online play.

Anyone thinking that Ryu is becoming a forgotten former icon is in for a large surprise next month, methinks.

(BTW, second best-selling XBLA title is the TMNT arcade port, again because of the online co-op that's available.)

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/29/2007 11:45:34 AM | message detail
Saying ryu is fading out is basically admitting that you either A) are challenged in the brain region B) a crack head, or C) your chin has grown so massive its taking over all other bodily functions.

WHICH ONE IS IT HARR??
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/29/2007 12:40:38 PM | message detail
Even if 2005 was a fluke, I still think Mewtwo can upset Ryu. Ryu is the type of character that seems to only do well against non-Nintendo competition.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2007 1:05:08 PM | message detail
Eh, his only true "Nintendo" competition was Bowser, and I really can't see Mewtwo getting 40% on him.

Rikku is still kinda embarrassing, admittedly.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/29/2007 3:36:32 PM | message detail
So you think Ryu, a Capcom character that has appeared on all consoles has more overlap with Bowser, a Nintendo character that has only appeared on Nintendo consoles than Mega Man, a Capcom character that has appeared on all consoles?

lol ulti

And lol mewtwo

1 on 1 I would take Ryu to at least 60-40 him. Thrown in Bowser and Toad taking all of Mewtwo's Nintendo votes and it seems fairly obvious that Ryu has the first round match in the bag.

TuRtLe
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/29/2007 3:38:56 PM | message detail
I think what we have here is the classic case of a character randomly having an "off" year for reasons we can't possibly know. I think Ryu's performances last year more than redeems his 2k5 shortcomings.

TuRtLe
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 6:56:23 PM | message detail
1 on 1 I would take Ryu to at least 60-40 him. Thrown in Bowser and Toad taking all of Mewtwo's Nintendo votes and it seems fairly obvious that Ryu has the first round match in the bag.

I'd take Mewtwo to break 40% against Ryu one-on-one, and for somebody who's got Pikachu entering Round Three I'm surprised to see you believe otherwise. I also don't think Bowser and Toad will steal so many of Mewtwo's votes -- we've seen both Samus/Nidoran and Metroid/Pokemon. Whether Samus/Metroid can SFF or not, the Pokemon fanbase held up rather well last year. If Samus can't SFF Nidoran F (unless you want to say Nidoran's considerably stronger than Pikachu), then why would Bowser OR Toad take all the votes from Mewtwo?

I'm not calling for Mewtwo to advance anymore, but some of these arguments against him are still exaggerated to say the least.




I do wanna ask though: in Bowser's first match, how much percentage does everybody think is going to go to the Nintendo characters...or how much is Ryu going to get? Whichever way you wanna answer.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 6:59:13 PM | message detail
I think SF2 is remaining pretty solid but SF's/Ryu's importance in gaming is dropping...doesn't mean he's losing fans, but he's at risk to during this new generation of systems. Think CT/Crono except with some VC/Live success.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/29/2007 7:00:18 PM | message detail
Ryu's more Mega Man than Crono.

I can't see how Bowser would suck away more Ryu votes than Mewtwo ones, but to each his own
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 7:10:36 PM | message detail
Just saying we've seen Ryu falter against Bowser before and I think it would happen again head-to-head. Couldn't tell you why it happened, but I couldn't tell you why it's not repeatable either. I believe it turned out that Rikku was about where she needed to be after 2k5, so it looked like it wasn't necessarily a bad year for Ryu. We've not seen Nidoran or Pokemon flop in that same way.

Granted, Pikachu flopped against Fox in 2k3, but between the smaller hate against Pokemon, the recent boost for Pokemon, the two times Pokemon/Nidoran resisted SFF last year, the new format that favors Pokemon, and Mewtwo >> Pikachu...I like Mewtwo's chances of not being affected anything like that.
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ZFS | Posted 8/29/2007 7:14:10 PM | message detail
There's no reasonable scenario I could picture where Mewtwo isn't adversely affected by Bowser being in that poll. Bowser can lay a SFF beatdown, especially to someon who's significantly weaker than him. And there's no way to believe that Mewtwo has a bigger hardcore following than Ryu.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/29/2007 8:38:52 PM | message detail
I'm just going for an upset pick based on recent contest trends. Metroid has been killing it, Street Fighter has been steadily going down. Non-SSB fighting series don't matter anymore.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/29/2007 8:39:36 PM | message detail
Oh and Mewtwo is one of my favorite characters, so it's an admitted fanboy pick. He deserves to advance at least once after all these years of getting snubbed.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/29/2007 9:26:06 PM | message detail
If it wasn't 2 NIntendo characters (one of them being pretty damn strong) in that fourpack with Mewtwo, I'd have given him a good shot at moving on. He just got one of the worst draws in the contest.

I also can't see Mewtwo being too far ahead of Pikachu, if at all. But if you were to switch Pika and Mewtwo, I guarentee Mewtwo would be a favourite to beat out Tidus/Vivi.

TuRtLe
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/29/2007 9:29:22 PM | message detail
I think Mewtwo has the potential to be a strong midcarder (more likable than the much reviled Pikachu). He just got wasted in this bracket.
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Lopen | Posted 8/29/2007 10:45:28 PM | message detail
If you think Mewtwo can beat Ryu here, you should really give him a chance to take Bowser in this setting too. I don't see Toad's presence as being good news for Bowser at all. The fungus will have some fierce SFF potential in him... I mean... he does about as well as Bowser in the favorite Mario character polls. Toad is not to be ignored.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 10:53:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, but without Mario, Yoshi, and Luigi...there's a reason Bowser is still as strong as any other Mario character barring Mario. Toad will do better than 10% I assume, but not a lot more.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/29/2007 10:55:56 PM | message detail
About 4 days away from the contest...

Tell me stats folks...

What is YOUR biggest upset pick this contest?

Mine is probably Yuna > M Chief in both rounds 1 and 2.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2007 10:58:41 PM | message detail
CATS making it to Round 3, that's what! It's not like Wario + Fox would be leagues ahead of Peach + Meta Knight...

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ZFS | Posted 8/29/2007 11:00:44 PM | message detail
The ever enjoyable Ganon upset.

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:04:19 PM | message detail
Bowser > Mewtwo if we're talking about solely what's in the bracket, and...I guess Magus > Phoenix if we're talking about upsets we'd still defend.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:04:55 PM | message detail
No, wait, Leon > Dante.
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transience | Posted 8/29/2007 11:06:16 PM | message detail
I'm waiting for that first Guru update. the BOP is a nice effort, but I feel that we won't TRULY know what the consensus is until we see the Guru brackets.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:11:26 PM | message detail
This is NO offense to charmander (or even Master Mage)...but as far as getting a general consensus of what's up with the board, the Gurus has been the spot to look at since Slow left. It sucks because it's such an awesome project and Slow's gone, but really...it's just not had the same turn-out, even if it had the same feel. Hopefully the turn-out improves more and more, but I know it dipped after Slow left and it doesn't seem as sought after now, either.
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transience | Posted 8/29/2007 11:13:00 PM | message detail
yup. I wonder why... it's not like it's any different.
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transience | Posted 8/29/2007 11:13:20 PM | message detail
I think it's just that the Guru Contest has gotten SO popular that it's kind of replaced the BOP.
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Lopen | Posted 8/29/2007 11:13:27 PM | message detail
What's my biggest upset pick? Oh... I'll let it simmer. In this wacky format I need something very crazy to turn heads.

... and I'll deliver!

On Bowser/Toad... even if Toad takes 10%, (I say he's getting significantly more) is it unreasonable to assume that a strong majority of that would be taken from Bowser? It's not like Bowser is leagues ahead of Ryu anyway.
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ZFS | Posted 8/29/2007 11:15:47 PM | message detail
Pretty much it. With the Guru being so large, it might as well serve to tell folks the consensus on matches over the smaller BOP.

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transience | Posted 8/29/2007 11:17:45 PM | message detail
it's amazing how that thing is grown.. it's truly a lottery now. same with the Oracle.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2007 11:27:27 PM | message detail
I haven't heard any discussion on Vivi possiby beating Leon Kennedy for first. I think Vivi has the 4-way poll to his advantage... he resisted SFF (or almost all of it) against Sephiroth, so his fanbase may be dedidated. Also, I see Ridley and Spyro sharing more fanbase with Leon than with Vivi. Finally, Leon just might get a lot of strength from RE4 just from his game being so popular... which may inflate his strength compared to how much of a favorite he is. Finally, Vivi may have boosted a little from the KH2F. Leon boosted about 1.5% on Link from his PS2 release, so the Wiimake should be even less significant than that for Leon. Leon '06 is expected to beat Vivi '05 with... 52.85%.

How about the possibility of somebody other than Lara Croft getting second to Sora? Wesker or Daxter... how many people love Lara Croft? I don't think there's many. Wesker's weak, but...um... maybe Daxter and Lara could split some of the vote, and Wesker's dilligent fans could pull him through. or maybe Daxter could somehow beat out Lara, especially if Daxter => Jak (didn't play enough of Jak & Daxter, so I wouldn't know). Lara should still be favored, since Jak's probably above Daxter and Wesker's just so weak... but I don't feel too comfortable with Lara.

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Xuxon | Posted 8/29/2007 11:27:33 PM | message detail
Man, I have 2 of other peoeple's craziest picks (CATS to round 3 and Yuna > MC round 1+2), and neither one is my craziest. That honor goes to Ryu coming out of his division.

And hey, don't group the oracle into the "lottery" category. I did win two of the last three, and it's always been vets who have won.
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ZFS | Posted 8/29/2007 11:27:47 PM | message detail
200 nominations for -- wait for it, wait for it -- http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4071/mankeydn1.gif !

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transience | Posted 8/29/2007 11:28:29 PM | message detail
augh aitch emm

I had Ryu coming out of his division for a while. it makes quite a bit of sense, really.
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ZFS | Posted 8/29/2007 11:31:54 PM | message detail
You know it's happenin'!

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2007 11:37:50 PM | message detail
I agree that Ryu is being underestimated... I didn't have the gut to put him past Round 2, at least, not anymore. If Ryu edges out Bowser in Round 2 (a good chance, I say), he should win three rounds and make it out of the division.

Yet, I'm starting to rethink it... I just have doubts about Bowser doing that great in a multi-option poll... and Shadow might steal more votes from Bowser than anybody... hm.... I just see Ryu having a hardcore fanbase, more than almost anybody, for some reason. Okay, that's it. I'm going back to Ryu... and Ryu getting second to Cloud in the following round, of course.

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Lopen | Posted 8/29/2007 11:43:37 PM | message detail
Yeahhhh I can just feel the love of the fight going around now. But this time, Ryu, victory means everything. Got it, punk?
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:44:18 PM | message detail
Meh, I don't see Ryu's fanbase being that hardcore. Possible, sure, but I'll have to see it to agree with it. I know I've said it time and time again, but Ryu got 60-40'd by Bowser in 2k5...if he's able to outlast Bowser (maybe even beat him twice?), Shadow, and Auron (even with Cloud) two years later in this format without any additional games outside of SF2 re-releases, I'll be impressed.
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Big Bob | Posted 8/29/2007 11:44:41 PM | message detail
What the hell was with the random Mankey picture?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/29/2007 11:45:24 PM | message detail
Ganon > Sonic and Vincent > Crono are probably my biggest...
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:47:23 PM | message detail
I've got Vincent > Crono myself. Still can't REALLY say the Noble Nine is broken if it happens though.....
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2007 11:49:48 PM | message detail
My biggest upset in Ryu H > Riku in rounds 1 and 2. That seems tame compared to most people's...

...Wait, I've got it!

Nightmare > Solid Snake. Book it.
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Lopen | Posted 8/29/2007 11:50:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, I've got the Noble Nine "breaking" a few times in my bracket, but I wouldn't say they were broken either... even if all my results happen (not a word!).
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2007 11:52:17 PM | message detail
I'm a little scared about Vincent over Crono because... what if Crono's fanbase is for real? What if he doesn't get much strength at all from being the name of his game? Yet, Vincent seems a little more independent from Zero and Link, so I'm banking on that...

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2007 11:58:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, Link and Zero made real big names from themselves on the SNES like Crono did. Not that Link SFF'd Crono in 2k4 nor would Zero (and Link will probably hurt Zero if Link/MM is a sign of anything), but Vincent didn't share a console with Link, not a generation with a MM game people really cared about (as I understand it), and Crono had a small role in CC...and Vincent was really close to Crono last year statistically anyway.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2007 12:00:39 AM | message detail
Also, there's a decent chance Crono's fanbase is very real...but the SSBB-poll not long ago wasn't awe-inspiring (Cloud or no Cloud/bias or no bias), another generation of gaming is started, and Vincent is still rather close to him.
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transience | Posted 8/30/2007 12:42:07 AM | message detail
augh what is Moltar's email

darn you for not having it in your profile, I just went through six different stats topic pages trying to find a post of yours!
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Osfan | Posted 8/30/2007 1:49:47 AM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: This contest is catered to Yuna and she will be the "Tifa" of this contest.
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ESY16 | Posted 8/30/2007 4:16:19 AM | message detail
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transience | Posted 8/30/2007 4:26:20 AM | message detail
isn't Link in that match or something? if so... no.
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ESY16 | Posted 8/30/2007 4:35:04 AM | message detail
Yeah, nevermind. I must be getting tired.
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