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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 452

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 9:42:03 PM | message detail

Nidoran F is in the most popular Pokemon game, but you still can't shake off Mudkip being a starter Pokemon, even if it's in the least popular title. not to mention it has 4chan or whoever behind it. it's at least on equal ground with Nidoran.

I'm leaning towards Mudkip, though.
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Aprosenf | Posted 8/22/2007 9:54:31 PM | message detail

Ok, I'm *finally* caught up with the stats topic. This is gonna be one helluva contest.

One point I'd like to make - somebody mentioned that Halo 3 comes out just before the Chief's first match, but I don't think that's the case. Halo 3 hits stores Tuesday, September 25. According to the contest's official rules, I infer that brackets will be closing on 7:00 pm PST on September 2, implying the first match will be on September 3. That means MC's first match, which is the 19th match of the contest, will be on September 21, 4 days before Halo launches. So, unless there's a 4-day delay between brackets closing and the start of the contest, I think Yuna has a great chance of beating him in round 1 and then losing to him in round 2.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/22/2007 9:59:47 PM | message detail

If it was Luigi/Nidoran F/Tingle/Pit I'd certainly take Nidoran F. I just don't think Mudkip is at Nidoran F's level... it could be close, though.

Let's say both Bidoof and Mudkip were both in Luigi's 4-pack... who would do better?

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:02:00 PM | message detail

Mudkip, because it's a starter.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:05:28 PM | message detail

Mudkip > Bidoof seems natural, yes. Kinda funny... Mudkip over Edgeworth doesn't seem so obvious, yet I still have Bidoof over Edgeworth. The Mudkip fad is more broadly known that of Bidoof, right? Maybe I should switch to Edgeworth...

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:07:44 PM | message detail

after seeing what Phoenix Wright did, I wouldn't put Edgeworth over Soma Cruz, so I'm pretty confident with Bidoof.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/22/2007 10:08:24 PM | message detail

Don't get it twisted, just because RSE aren't as popular as the other 3 games, it doesn't mean that the game isn't pretty damn popular in its own right. Being in the first generation doesn't mean you are automatically more popular than any Pokemon from the 3rd generation. Blaziken would probably give plenty of first gen Pokemon a run for their money. Being a starter Pokemon is much more important than what gen you come from as far as popularity goes. Sure if you're comparing relative Pokemon across gens (i.e. 1st gen starters > 3rd gen, 1st gen legendaries > 3rd gen, etc.)

But in this case, we're talking a starter Pokemon from the 3rd gen against a random Pokemon from the first gen. I don't see why Nidoran F should be favored in that.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:10:27 PM | message detail

Because Nidoran F is a Pokemon everyone knows and loves... Mudkip is a dork.

after seeing what Phoenix Wright did, I wouldn't put Edgeworth over Soma Cruz, so I'm pretty confident with Bidoof.

Meh, I'd put Edgeworth pretty much exactly on Phoenix's level ;>_>
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:17:36 PM | message detail

well, I've never played PW, but that's how I look at it.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/22/2007 10:19:17 PM | message detail

All these Pokemon arguments are getting old fast.

Let's talk about something like Kratos/Kirby some more >_>
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:20:16 PM | message detail

I would bet almost all Pokemon from RSE and on would suffer a huge amount of anti-votes that Pokemon from the earlier generations would not... that alone could make Nidoran F stronger than Mudkip, I think. Now, about Bidoof/Edgeworth... considering all characters will get around 10% on Link (if they're lucky), joke votes will be at a whole new (relative) level, which is what I'm clinging onto for Bidoof's chances. Who knows...maybe Link could even achieve 80%.

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redrocket | Posted 8/22/2007 10:20:46 PM | message detail

I would take Gordan Freeman to at least double Bidoof without thinking about it.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:21:40 PM | message detail

Let's talk about something like Kratos/Kirby some more >_>

Kirby > Kratos

Done.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 10:23:28 PM | message detail

Kratos > Kirby, then Kirby > Kratos.

Over.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:23:43 PM | message detail

ouble Bidoof? after getting 58% on Phoenix Wright? that's a very bold statement.

I rank the Kratos situation like this: Kirby > Kratos > Donkey Kong in one-on-one matches. though, Kratos shouldn't be that far behind Kratos, so since he splits votes with Donkey Kong, he'll more than likely get second.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 10:23:46 PM | message detail

Kratos decimates Kirby. No chance Kratos does that poorly on PoP post-GoW2.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:24:23 PM | message detail

Kirby may split votes with DK, but Kratos will be having the same problem with L Block, obviously.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:25:25 PM | message detail

Miles Edgeworth wouldn't be on Phoenix Wright's level... after all, the game is named after him.

Kratos/Kirby... I would that's with Snake and...oh yeah, Riku. I think Kirby will have the biggest advantage of any Nintendo character in a multi-option setting, save maybe Zelda characters or Pikachu. Kratos is probably still not being quite at the level of Kirby, and Kratos might suffer a little fanbase split with Snake. So, I'll take Kirby.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:26:16 PM | message detail

Kratots shouldn't be that far behind Kirby, I mean.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 10:26:21 PM | message detail

Miles Edgeworth wouldn't be on Phoenix Wright's level... after all, the game is named after him.

I have faith in people who've played Phoenix Wright games that they're smarter than people who vote for characters based on their name being in the title.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 10:28:56 PM | message detail

For a game that had ~5% in a DS-poll that has MKDS win big and for Miles not being the title character nor the most popular of his games...Miles ain't going even with Phoenix.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 10:30:10 PM | message detail

Also, when you mention smarter, one could assume that means "less blind to fanboyism" thus not be so likely to vote for Miles.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 10:33:08 PM | message detail

I dunno. I see Edgeworth being to Phoenix at least what Sephiroth is to Cloud.
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Big Bob | Posted 8/22/2007 10:33:10 PM | message detail

Edgeworth won't be anywhere near Phoenix, but he can certainly handle a Bidoof, what with Link sucking away all Bidoof's votes, the fact that Objection is a more popular fad than Bidoof, and that non-board 8ers hate Bidoof.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/22/2007 10:38:03 PM | message detail

I would bet almost all Pokemon from RSE and on would suffer a huge amount of anti-votes that Pokemon from the earlier generations would not...

Anti-votes. Why?
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redrocket | Posted 8/22/2007 10:39:29 PM | message detail

Double Bidoof? after getting 58% on Phoenix Wright? that's a very bold statement.

Well, for what it's worth...

Gordon Freeman (2006c) VS Nidoran F (2006c)

Gordon Freeman has a strength of 25.36.
Nidoran F has a strength of 16.64.

Gordon Freeman wins with 67.19% of the vote!
A win of 41,351 with 120,259 total votes cast.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:43:01 PM | message detail

you actually take Gordon Freeman's x-stat value at point?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 10:45:16 PM | message detail

And that's despite the massively overrated female bracket. Gordon would know doubt do much better than that in an actual match.

Speaking of Gordon, will the Orange Box be out by the time of his second match?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:46:53 PM | message detail

Gordon Freeman doubling anything, especially a Pokemon just sounds impossible.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 10:50:55 PM | message detail

Then throw your prejudices to the wayside, friend, and look at things from a more objective position. Freeman's not the joke he was before Half-Life 2 came out, and HL2E1 only helped him more. With the Orange Box, he'll keep on moving up the midcarder tier, and future releases will help him even more.

Also: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=949
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2007 10:53:43 PM | message detail

transience | Posted 8/22/2007 10:58:42 PM | message detail

I don't think Edgeworth's quite what Phoenix is. for one, he doesn't have his name on the game - I wouldn't be amazed if people vote for Phoenix because of Objection! (didn't he get about as many votes as his game sold?), but "Miles Edgeworth" is not exactly the most memorable name. nor is the picture of him. I think he could have decent strength and that everyone who played through PW would vote for him.. but I think Phoenix outdoes him by a good bit.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 11:00:02 PM | message detail

yes, but taking Gordon over people like Ness? Ryu Hayabusa? .... Kefka?

Well, Ness is underrated IMO, Hayabusa probably boosted some from NGS, and Kefka might perform better than he has in the past thanks to FFVIA...but without that, he'd be around their level, yeah.

Phoenix Wright, who can't be anywhere even near the fodder line.

Oh, I'll agree that Gordon (and his entire division) are definitely overrated in the 2k6 stats, but Phoenix is probably pretty close to the fodder line, IMO. The advantage that he has over many other characters is that practically everyone who plays his game loves him. Adjusting him down the proper amount probably puts him around Sheena's level, which seems quite fitting for someone like Phoenix.

Of course, he'll be much stronger now, but back then that seems an alright level.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/22/2007 11:00:20 PM | message detail

Actually, Phoenix IS more than likely close to the fodder line. It's more than fair to use 2K5 Gordon's x-stat to represent Gordon 2K6. That brings Phoenix down to 19% on BL (yeah, and 20% is the imaginary fodder line). Phoenix is probably slightly stronger this year, too.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/22/2007 11:01:29 PM | message detail

Whoa, Gordon Freeman will actually advance two rounds. Orange box comes out right before his round 2 match
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redrocket | Posted 8/22/2007 11:03:10 PM | message detail

yes, but taking Gordon over people like Ness? Ryu Hayabusa? .... Kefka? I'm really not confident about him doubling even a Bidoof if he could only manage 58% on Phoenix Wright, who can't be anywhere even near the fodder line.

I really don't see why people have such a hard time believing that Phoenix could hang with the likes of scrubs like Kratos Aurion.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 11:05:49 PM | message detail

didn't he get about as many votes as his game sold

About that, I think. And as of February 2007, the sales of his game had more than doubled. Phoenix would definitely be above the fodder line this year.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 11:07:19 PM | message detail

He's currently handheld-only for a series whose first (and arguably more popular) game got 5% in a DS-poll. Skepticism is completely warranted.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 11:10:14 PM | message detail

I should say that, given the circumstances, Phoenix will be stronger this year in the traditional format and this format probably favors him even more...but regardless, again, skepticism is still fair to give for him. What's the strongest handheld-only character we've ever seen, anyway? Felix? Not that Phoenix can never ever surpass that, but if/when he does...well, how many people's favorite character comes from solely handheld games?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 11:11:31 PM | message detail

MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 11:12:26 PM | message detail

well, how many people's favorite character comes from solely handheld games?

Mine ;>_>

Yay for Rocket!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 11:15:15 PM | message detail

well, how many people's favorite character comes from solely handheld games?

Story-wise, the Phoenix Wright games are arguably the greatest handheld games of all time. And character-wise, they're even better. The only thing I can think of that would compare would be something like MGS:PO. Phoenix Wright is a very different beast than any other handheld character we've seen.
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transience | Posted 8/22/2007 11:22:14 PM | message detail

I just saw Phoenix friggin' Wright referred to as a "beast".

only in the stats topic!
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 11:24:16 PM | message detail

PW had sold more of his first game and has had a second game since last year to my understanding, but ~42% on Freeman to ~47% on MC is still a big jump. Granted, it was probably MC's worst year and MC/Felix was four years ago...but that's still a big jump, regardless. Phoenix will have to get second in his first match to show me he's got a shot at outdoing Felix (which, so you know, I have Phoenix advancing)...but right now, Fenix has impressed me with his one match four years later more than Phoenix did with his match last year.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/22/2007 11:27:58 PM | message detail

PW had sold more of his first game and has had a second game since last year to my understanding, but ~42% on Freeman to ~47% on MC is still a big jump.

Uh...not really. It's much easier to increase when you're at such a low level to begin with, and Freeman 2k6 might be able to take MC 2k3. Probably not quite, but it'd be a close match.

Fenix has impressed me with his one match four years later more than Phoenix did with his match last year.

Obviously. Nobody's arguing that Phoenix 2k6 could beat Felix 2k3.

But Phoenix 2k7 stands an excellent chance. Again, remember how Kratos boosted from 2k4 to 2k5 - and that was without even having a second game yet.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/22/2007 11:29:05 PM | message detail

Wasn't MC/Felix like... before Halo 2 also? That's uh... something... I guess...
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/22/2007 11:34:20 PM | message detail

Like I said, MC at his weakest -- Halo 2's hype was nowhere near beginning, and I think he lost to Aeris harder than he lost to Crono.

Still, even for Phoenix 2k7, it's an uphill battle. Great games or not, people have been slow to catch onto them and they're handheld-only for now. That's a legitimate handicap. He's got quite a firm fanbase (I assume) and he should be stronger this year in whatever format you want, but until he gets a semi-popular console game, it's hard for me to imagine him going much higher than where he's at last year.
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ZFS | Posted 8/23/2007 12:37:33 PM | message detail

... still, uh, someone else will love Tingle...

I'm your man right here. Votin' Tingle in that match, baby!

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swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2007 12:44:28 PM | message detail

And I'm voting against Tingle to pop his balloons.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/23/2007 12:56:08 PM | message detail

Felix is handheld only, and that never stopped him. He's projected to, what, double Crash? That's hardly terrible, and he didn't even have a big fad behind him. Plus he's not nearly as loved by fans of his game as Phoenix is.Felix is handheld only, and that never stopped him. He's projected to, what, double Crash? That's hardly terrible, and he didn't even have a big fad behind him. Plus he's not nearly as loved by fans of his game as Phoenix is.

Big fad? The only place that objection site was popular was right here on Board 8. I don't believe I've ever seen Phoenix even mentioned outside of this board.

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