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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 452

smitelf | Posted 8/18/2007 7:08:08 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
Looking at it, actually, except for Knuckles and Ryu, all of my top 10 favorite characters are in the bottom half of the bracket.


I'm completely the opposite - nine of my top 10 favorite characters in the bracket (HK-47, Edgeworth, Auron, Sephiroth, Kerrigan, Axel, Phoenix, KOS-MOS and Cloud) are in the top half, with only Riku in the bottom half.
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BDawg | Posted 8/18/2007 7:19:51 PM | message detail
Anybody have any thoughts on Leon/Dante in division 6? I mean it looks like cakewalk to their meeting in the finals, with I assume some assortment of Square mid-carders (I don't know I mean Balthier isn't gonna be packing Auron strength is he?) But it's hard for me to order these guys, I assume Dante looks stronger in the stats but personally I'd take Leon 1v1 and I don't know why Square would particularly affect either of them. Then in the next round I have Ganon/Chief/Leon/Dante, but having Chief advance (along with Ganon) always seems like a recipe for disaster. I mean even with logic saying Halo 3 and core fanbase and all that, would it really shock anybody for Leon or Dante to edge him out?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 7:21:27 PM | message detail
I've got Dante > Leon, but I could see it going the other way, honestly.
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/18/2007 7:26:46 PM | message detail
I have Dante > Leon for that division, and I'm waffling on Ganondorf (or Yuna, I can't decide)/Chief/Dante/Leon. I do think that Dante and Leon will be splitting votes and Dante will come out better. If it's Ganondorf in there, he should take first, with Dante and Leon splitting enough so that Chief takes second. However, if it's Yuna, I think Chief takes first, with either Yuna or Dante in second. Those two fourpacks are the major sticking points in my bracket right now.
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ZFS | Posted 8/18/2007 7:28:30 PM | message detail
I'd be pretty surprised if Leon or Dante could beat out Master Chief in a poll like this, particularly Dante since I'm a wee bit skeptical of what he's going to do in this.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 7:28:30 PM | message detail
I took Dante > MC (but I've got Luigi getting there, not Ganon or Yuna).

...I'm still not entirely sure why I did.
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creativename | Posted 8/18/2007 7:30:42 PM | message detail
Regarding the Marcus Fenix discussion, I think that Zelos has a very slim shot to finish over him. What I'm focused on is Kefka vs. Marcus Fenix. I don't think Zelos merits much discussion.

I don't agree at all with the Gordon Freeman comparison - I haven't even played Gears for an hour, and had no idea who Marcus Fenix was when I first saw him mentioned. However I'd definitely recognize "the GoW guy", he's very distinct looking.

In a 1-on-1 match, I might well go with Fenix over Kefka. I think Fenix has more appeal than, say, Vercetti, with his attitude and big guns and stuff. But in this format, seems to me that both Kefka and Fenix might benefit, as both suffer from recognition issues. My first impression is just that Kefka might benefit more, because he has an actual fanbase that loves him; he's just doesn't have mass appeal. But I'm not sure about that at all. Fenix could well win.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 7:32:35 PM | message detail
Old school FF seems to have some solid support behind them. Cecil and Terra finished 3rd and 4th respectively in the Favorite FF Hero poll, and we know how much both of them stunk it up in their contest appearances.
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smitelf | Posted 8/18/2007 7:59:35 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
Old school FF seems to have some solid support behind them. Cecil and Terra finished 3rd and 4th respectively in the Favorite FF Hero poll, and we know how much both of them stunk it up in their contest appearances.

Characters from VII-X took in over 75% of the votes in that poll, though. And both Yuna and Tidus were listed for FFX, which lessened Tidus's chance to come third.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 8:04:21 PM | message detail
Cloud himself takes up half of the vote and throwing in Squall gives those two 2/3 of the vote by themselves, and there's not really anyone else in the old school FFs besides Cecil and Terra to get any votes (Heck, Bartz is the only other one who's even LISTED, and you knew he was gonna come in dead last), so that's not really fair to them to make that comparison.
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smitelf | Posted 8/18/2007 8:10:08 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
Cloud himself takes up half of the vote and throwing in Squall gives those two 2/3 of the vote by themselves, and there's not really anyone else in the old school FFs besides Cecil and Terra to get any votes (Heck, Bartz is the only other one who's even LISTED, and you knew he was gonna come in dead last), so that's not really fair to them to make that comparison.

I'm just saying that I wouldn't call it "solid support" when they get trounced by characters from later FFs. Realistically, Tidus and Yuna have around the same fanbase, so Tidus suffered really harsh SFF in that poll - without Yuna he would have been third.

So all this really means is that some old FF heroes are more popular than Zidane...yay?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 8:12:00 PM | message detail
And maybe Yuna!

Seriously though, I've not been impressed with anything I've seen from Yuna in multiway polls, even if they are pure SFF-fests. It just makes me wonder how many people have her as a favorite.
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smitelf | Posted 8/18/2007 8:17:33 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
And maybe Yuna!

Seriously though, I've not been impressed with anything I've seen from Yuna in multiway polls, even if they are pure SFF-fests. It just makes me wonder how many people have her as a favorite.


Not too many. Yuna is vulnerable to SFF - she's probably comparable to Peach that way. But she doesn't actually have to face any other FF characters, and I think RPG fans will vote for her if they lack other choices.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 8:21:55 PM | message detail
I don't really think fans are as single-minded as we think they are. Just because someone has Final Fantasy as their favorite franchise doesn't mean that they're gonna vote for Yuna just because there aren't any other Square characters in the poll. Heck, I'm in that group of people who love FF (and I really like Yuna, too), but she won't be getting my vote when Luigi rolls into her group.
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smitelf | Posted 8/18/2007 8:26:35 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
I don't really think fans are as single-minded as we think they are. Just because someone has Final Fantasy as their favorite franchise doesn't mean that they're gonna vote for Yuna just because there aren't any other Square characters in the poll. Heck, I'm in that group of people who love FF (and I really like Yuna, too), but she won't be getting my vote when Luigi rolls into her group.

I agree that fans aren't just going to vote "the party ticket" (with FF and Nintendo being the parties), but against the likes of Alucard and Ness, I think having FF attached to her name is enough for her to get by without trouble, even without a hardcore fanbase.

The Ganondorf/Luigi/MC/Yuna match, on the other hand, is way too complicated for Yuna to win just because she's a FF character.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2007 8:38:48 PM | message detail
I don't think Yuna's been in a multi-way poll asking about her popularity since FFX-2 came out, so those are misleading anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 9:19:55 PM | message detail
I don't think Yuna's been in a multi-way poll asking about her popularity since FFX-2 came out,

Actually, the Favorite FF Hero poll was post FFX-2. That's why she was in it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2007 10:16:07 PM | message detail
Hypothetical situation: Say Zero gets put in a fourpack against Mega Man (and a couple of other insignificant scrubs. Insert whoever you wish).

Does he win? Either way, how close do you think he gets?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/18/2007 10:37:13 PM | message detail
On Marcus vs Kefka, a match pic could really help Fenix, but the only thing holding me back is that we've seen the tough guy cop image a bunch and it's never really helped. Fenix is banking entirely on the strength of Gears of War.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/18/2007 10:43:26 PM | message detail
Hypothetical situation: Say Zero gets put in a fourpack against Mega Man (and a couple of other insignificant scrubs. Insert whoever you wish).

Does he win? Either way, how close do you think he gets?


If they're scrubs, the match should go the same way the one on one did. In a fourpack like...Bowser/Yoshi/Zero/Mega Man? I could see Zero holding up well enough in that to beat MM.
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voltch | Posted 8/19/2007 3:13:12 AM | message detail
on the link fourpack is there any poll that indicates how many people like the phoenix wright games.
i'm just thinking that if the fourpack gets around 100k votes and link gets a massive majority can edgeworth rely on a set number of fans to surpass the likely joke votes?
i'm sure if he can manage 12-15k he will go through to the next round.
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meche313 | Posted 8/19/2007 8:55:51 AM | message detail
KOS-MOS/Diablo, who you have advancing?

I have KOS-MOS right now on my bracket, but I'd like to see why Diablo is the favorite thus far. (Or at least it looks he is)
smitelf | Posted 8/19/2007 9:08:24 AM | message detail
From meche313
I have KOS-MOS right now on my bracket, but I'd like to see why Diablo is the favorite thus far. (Or at least it looks he is)

I have no idea why anyone is picking Diablo. That pick looks pretty simple to me: Diablo will probably have Blizzard SFF working against him, and KOS-MOS could take him one-on-one anyway. Unless people are expecting robot SFF between her and Mega Man, I don't get what's so complicated here.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/19/2007 9:20:05 AM | message detail
Well 2005 Diablo beats KOS-MOS in 2005, but loses to her in 2006. Still, neither result is obvious. Same with Diablo's 2005 Villains stat.
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smitelf | Posted 8/19/2007 9:24:14 AM | message detail
From swirIdude
Well 2005 Diablo beats KOS-MOS in 2005, but loses to her in 2006. Still, neither result is obvious. Same with Diablo's 2005 Villains stat.

I'd have a lot more trouble deciding the match if Arthas wasn't there. I see him taking more votes from Diablo than from anyone else - he'll still only get a few percent of the vote, but that should be enough for KOS-MOS to win second.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/19/2007 9:24:58 AM | message detail
KOS-MOS's 2006 stat ultimately depends on how much you believe in Zelda's 44.73% on Samus.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2007 9:27:03 AM | message detail
I'd take Diablo > KOS-MOS, but with Arthas in the poll and Diablo doing rather poorly in the poll just after the Villain Contest ended...I'll take KOS-MOS for this format.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 8/19/2007 10:34:43 AM | message detail
About Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero... People are saying Vincent will beat Crono because Crono has dropped slightly and Vincent owned last year... But weren't people saying last year that the only reason that the FFVII characters boosted so much was that they wanted to support a FFVII character and cloud and sephy weren't around? Because in the battle royale there was no 'FFVII' boost visible... I think that with Cloud and Sephy being back the other FFVII chars will go back to their original values(changed slightly but not as much as last year)

Point is last years stats look ****ing weird, but if you would remove the strange FFVII boost (and Samus her stupid suit pic) things look quite normal, not the same, but more normal... I can't believe in one year things can change so much in one year(of course the stats of this year will look ****ed up but that's because of the amount of SFF that's going to be involved...)So Link>Crono>Vincent? Or does anyone have a better explanation that contradicts mine>_>?
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/19/2007 10:37:01 AM | message detail
No, people are saying Vincent COULD beat Crono because Vincent is close to Crono (Crono is still stronger though)

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/19/2007 10:39:48 AM | message detail
From swirIdude Posted 8/19/2007 12:24:58 PM #076
KOS-MOS's 2006 stat ultimately depends on how much you believe in Zelda's 44.73% on Samus.

rSFF for the KOS-MOS loss, and Arthas is likely far weaker than Kerrigan. He'll seriously get like 5 votes from Diablo.

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voltch | Posted 8/19/2007 10:49:21 AM | message detail
who the hell is arthas?
is he even popular amongst blizzard fans?
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jonthomson | Posted 8/19/2007 10:52:22 AM | message detail
Stats topics are tl;dr, has anyone looked at early lines from the BOP in the past couple of topics?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/19/2007 1:41:06 PM | message detail
About Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero... People are saying Vincent will beat Crono because Crono has dropped slightly and Vincent owned last year... But weren't people saying last year that the only reason that the FFVII characters boosted so much was that they wanted to support a FFVII character and cloud and sephy weren't around? Because in the battle royale there was no 'FFVII' boost visible... I think that with Cloud and Sephy being back the other FFVII chars will go back to their original values(changed slightly but not as much as last year)

Point is last years stats look ****ing weird, but if you would remove the strange FFVII boost (and Samus her stupid suit pic) things look quite normal, not the same, but more normal... I can't believe in one year things can change so much in one year(of course the stats of this year will look ****ed up but that's because of the amount of SFF that's going to be involved...)So Link>Crono>Vincent? Or does anyone have a better explanation that contradicts mine>_>?


Vincent boosted because of DoC and AC, and others boosted from KH2. It's not some sort of random "FFVII boost".
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/19/2007 3:23:27 PM | message detail
Okay, now that I'm back and have caught up on everything in the last 3 days:

First of all, while Master Chief's first round match could result in him coming second to Yuna, I'd be willing to bet that the next round would see a complete turnaround. I can easily seeing the Chief being the most impressive (relative to past performances/expectations) person this year.

Secondly, lol @ old Snake in the banner. That doesn't bode well for his later matches

Thirdly, what MC did to Sora in 2k5 was more like what Tifa did to Samus last year than anything else. For the first time ever, we saw Snake with a picture advantage, and it's clear that it is what did most of the damage. Sora's 2k5 value is severely underrated.

Next, it's my belief that Bomberman steals second in that match. Not only is he a gaming icon that's very recognizable, but he recently had Bomberman Live come out, which is sure to have put him back on the map. PA:JFA was played mainly by people who were already fans, so I see this as a virtual non-factor.

As for Auron/Shadow/Bowser/Ryu, I'm not understanding this Shadow support. Maybe with a different draw, but he has very stiff competition and no clear SFF to split the other competitors. As a matter of fact, I think Shadow may be one of the biggest disappointments this year.

TuRtLe
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/19/2007 4:56:37 PM | message detail
Secondly, lol @ old Snake in the banner. That doesn't bode well for his later matches

Why not? He trashed Squall with Old Snake, and a couple of his pics with Sonic were also Old Snake.
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/19/2007 4:58:35 PM | message detail
As for Auron/Shadow/Bowser/Ryu, I'm not understanding this Shadow support.

...I'm not caught up on this topic, but I thought Auron and Bowser advancing was the overwhelming consensus. o_o
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/19/2007 5:28:39 PM | message detail
I see such little faith in Laharl. The guy avoided the tripling from Yoshi. The L-Block would never be able to do that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:32:27 PM | message detail
not to mention between the two, we both know who has hardcore fans.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:34:01 PM | message detail
Avoiding a tripling from the Legend of Zelda is much more impressive than avoiding a tripling from Yoshi.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:36:14 PM | message detail
the main difference is that that's Tetris the game that did it. not an L-Block.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:36:20 PM | message detail
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:39:11 PM | message detail
Where do you think Tetris got its strength and popularity from though? Most fans hate most of the shapes, and the one with the biggest fanbase by far is the L-shaped block. If you ask me, I'd say about 20% of Tetris' votes in that match came from die-hard L-Block fanboys.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:40:47 PM | message detail
I really don't know about that. even if that were true, I'd gamble Kirby to share, or even steal votes from L-Block anyway.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:47:00 PM | message detail
Even so, Laharl is also going to split votes with Nathan Hale due to the fact that both their games are on Sony consoles. The PS3 is also the biggest thing on the market at the moment, so I wouldn't underestimate the potential power of Nathan Hale.

However, I'm banking that L-Block's fanbase is strong enough to pull second, even with Kirby there to suck up his votes.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2007 5:50:00 PM | message detail
The PS3 is also the biggest thing on the market at the moment, so I wouldn't underestimate the potential power of Nathan Hale.

???

If by biggest thing you mean most expensive thing then you are right.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/19/2007 5:51:03 PM | message detail
Moltar knows what's up.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/19/2007 5:54:16 PM | message detail
I mean biggest in sales, yo! They're selling like hotcakes on fire. I mean, if you ignore the 360 and Wii, the PS3 is, month after month, the best selling next-gen console on the market!

Moltar knows what's up.

Damn straight!
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swirIdude | Posted 8/19/2007 5:55:25 PM | message detail
Moltar is correct. The PS3 is the biggest system on the market, physically.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/19/2007 7:07:22 PM | message detail
Just looking my bracket over, I have Kratos in first place for his first 2 matches and second to Snake in round 3.

Am I overrating him here?

TuRtLe
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2007 7:10:15 PM | message detail
I've got Kirby in second instead of Kratos against Solid...but otherwise you're probably in the consensus.
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