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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 451

charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2007 10:23:41 PM | message detail
I like how we have all these contest vets looking cool and then have Mudkip in the corner looking all happy.
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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/17/2007 10:24:51 PM | message detail
I like how Link is practically blocking Mario out. It reflects their contest history.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 10:39:21 PM | message detail
That's the best username you've ever had.

~*ST*~
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/17/2007 10:45:24 PM | message detail
I like how Link is practically blocking Mario out. It reflects their contest history.

Basically, the banner is reflecting what the voters think. Mudkip > Cloud > Squall > Sonic > Sora > Gordon > Dante > Ganondorf > Jill > Link > Mario > Snake > Ryu

Joke entrant the CB6 champion confirmed.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 10:58:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2630

Very very tempted to have Fenix > Kefka. That's a *very* good performance by Gears, and Kefka isn't really strong.

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Draco1214 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:00:11 PM | message detail
I don't think Marcus as a character will be very strong. I see him more like the GTA characters than like Master Chief.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 11:02:57 PM | message detail
Kefka needed some idiot to cheat for him to stay in the match last time he was against a GTA character.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:03:59 PM | message detail
Marcus will have a loyal fanbase like MC. Not as strong mind you, but enough to beat Kefka. Although FFVIA scares me.

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Draco1214 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:04:18 PM | message detail
But in a poll like this does Marcus really have any devoted fans? I'm a Gears of War fan, and I didn't know who the guy was until people mentioned him right before the nomination phase.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2007 11:11:04 PM | message detail
Marcus Fenix will have Gordon Freeman syndrome - while Gears isn't *technically* an FPS, you see Marcus from behind the grand majority of the game and his recognizability is *very* low. In multiplayer - where GeoW gets most of its popularity from - he has the same importance as any of the other characters, which is precisely zero.

...not that it's impossible for him to beat Kefka despite that, especially considering that it's Kefka. But Gears is FAR more popular than Marcus is, and I'm iffy enough having him place second in that fourpack.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2007 11:12:32 PM | message detail
So basically, it depends on if his picture clues in enough people to him being "the Gears of War guy". The COG armor being visible will be a big part of it, if it's just a plain face shot I'd say he's sunk.

And if it was a no picture match? He could *easily* come in last.
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Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:14:41 PM | message detail
I've got Kefka andZelos over Marcus Fenix, and I don't feel too bad about it. Gears of War very well could've been the "default" option for a lot of people in that poll. All the platforms are still fairly new, and I believe that the recent ownership poll backs up that a good 15% of GameFAQs only has an X-Box 360 outta the new blood.

And yeah, from what I hear homeboy doesn't sound like a very important character to the fans, anyway.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:16:53 PM | message detail
So basically, it depends on if his picture clues in enough people to him being "the Gears of War guy". The COG armor being visible will be a big part of it, if it's just a plain face shot I'd say he's sunk.

And if it was a no picture match? He could *easily* come in last.


Yikes. He's that low key? Good to know, at least.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 11:20:00 PM | message detail
I know nothing about GeoW, so I didn't know he was so anonymous. I still have faith in him getting second, though.

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ZFS | Posted 8/17/2007 11:21:52 PM | message detail
I've switched to Kefka over Fenix, but I'm not at all worried about him coming in second. I definitely don't think Zelos is going to manage there. Fenix isn't neary as recognizable or as popular as his game, but he's still going to known to those that have played Gears.

His picture will probably end up being something like this if the Battle Royale were any indication -- http://xbox360media.ign.com/xbox360/image/article/718/718873/gears-of-war-20060714024932572.jpg

Not terribly unique insofar as his overall design, but it's easy enough to distinguish him as the "guy from Gears of War."

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Believe
Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:27:40 PM | message detail
Tales fans are a devoted bunch. Really, I'm skeptical as to how popular Gears of War really is on this site. It did decently in the GotY polls, but I don't respect its competition/circumstances. And if the main character is as uncharismatic as you people are making him out to be, he shouldn't be more than fodder from a moderately popular game. His absolute ceiling you'd think would be CJ, and that's not anything respectable.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2007 11:30:47 PM | message detail
I just don't understand how people who are fans of games like Half-Life and Gears don't know who Gordon and Marcus are. My friends played Gears singleplayer for an hour total and he remembers who Marcus is. I just don't get it.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 11:34:24 PM | message detail
Really, I'm skeptical as to how popular Gears of War really is on this site. It did decently in the GotY polls, but I don't respect its competition/circumstances

Um...Twilight Princess?
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:39:59 PM | message detail
Not sure how many other people have this setup (consensus seems to be Auron > Bowser, but it just doesn't feel right to me currently), but how would:

Samus
Mega Man
Bowser
Cloud

play out?

If Bowser's there instead of Auron it does add some nintendo flavor to the mix. How much would his votes hurt Samus? Enough to let Mega Man slip by? Or would Bowser hurt him just as much? With Auron there it doesn't seem as exciting; Cloud beats up on Auron, Samus does away with Mega.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:40:10 PM | message detail
Maybe they know and just don't care? That's certainly possible.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870

By the way, I'd consider that to be about as impressive as Gears of War's two appearances in GotY polls. Now, I'm not saying it's fighting bigger competition (though I would call the competition better than the X-Box GotY poll that Gears did better in), but it isn't facing absolute pushovers, and what's more is that there is no "default" vote to consider. Consider that Zelos is likely to have a bigger portion of the Tales vote than ol' Fenix is gonna have of the Gears of War vote and the match is suddenly more interesting.

Yes, I realize the votals are a little low.

Um...Twilight Princess?

Hence the reason for the slash. Competition would be the case in the X-Box poll. Circumstances in the TP poll. I believe it's possible a lot of the vote could've come from people who simply haven't played the other two. Like I said earlier, ~15% of the site only has a 360 at this point. A 23% chunk of the vote isn't very impressive when you're facing three games off with disjoint audiences on (relatively) newly established systems.

Well, I suppose Final Fantasy XII is not on "new blood", and TP was on GC. Still, my point stands to a lesser extent.
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transience | Posted 8/17/2007 11:41:33 PM | message detail
on the Vincent thing... I feel like it's Mario Kart all over again. it's something you can explain statistically, it'll be a sexy stats topic bandwagon pick that a lot of the board will jump on, but when the time comes for the poll Crono will end up winning it.

on Marcus - if he got that picture, you'd know who he was. on a smaller picture, though, not sure. remember, four people per picture now.
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Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:43:19 PM | message detail
And really, I think CJ says it all for Marcus Fenix.

San Andreas is more popular, and from what I'm hearing it seems that CJ has more reason to be appreciated by the fanbase. CJ is certainly not out of Zelos's reach, and a presumably weaker Marcus Fenix really shouldn't be either.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 11:44:03 PM | message detail
By the way, I'd consider that to be about as impressive as Gears of War's two appearances in GotY polls. Now, I'm not saying it's fighting bigger competition (though I would call the competition better than the X-Box GotY poll that Gears did better in), but it isn't facing absolute pushovers, and what's more is that there is no "default" vote to consider.

Oblivion would beat any game in that poll. And TP could likely manage 70%+ there. Performing mediocrely in a GameCube GotY poll isn't anything to brag about.
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ZFS | Posted 8/17/2007 11:45:22 PM | message detail
Like I said earlier, ~15% of the site only has a 360 at this point

What you're trying to imply there is pretty silly, too, if you ask me.

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Believe
Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:46:40 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be so sure about Oblivion over Metroid Prime 2 or Paper Mario, to be honest with you.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 11:46:54 PM | message detail
on the Vincent thing... I feel like it's Mario Kart all over again. it's something you can explain statistically, it'll be a sexy stats topic bandwagon pick that a lot of the board will jump on, but when the time comes for the poll Crono will end up winning it.

I'm getting more of a Knuckles/Magus vibe, where the statistically weaker character beats the presumably powerful CT character.

>_>
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ZFS | Posted 8/17/2007 11:49:12 PM | message detail
San Andreas is more popular, and from what I'm hearing it seems that CJ has more reason to be appreciated by the fanbase. CJ is certainly not out of Zelos's reach, and a presumably weaker Marcus Fenix really shouldn't be either.

Weaker? I'd take Fenix over CJ in a heartbeat. Fenix isn't exactly iconic in his image, but there's no need to get out of control on this. People know who Marcus Fenix is. You don't play Gears of War and think "Man, I have no clue who that is." That's just not happening; I'm not buying that. He isn't going to be as strong as his game, obviously, but his game would rock ToS three different ways, so it's really not that important.

There's an argument to be had with the Tales fanbase being a devoted one, but let's not try to underplay Fenix here in an attempt to justify such a pick.

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ffmasterjose | Posted 8/17/2007 11:49:13 PM | message detail
Right now I've got Marcus > Kefka but I'm not so confident about that placing right now, and it may very well switch. I imagine he'll catch some anti-Xbox votes, though I doubt it''ll be as bad as what the Chief gets.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 11:49:24 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be so sure about Oblivion over Metroid Prime 2 or Paper Mario, to be honest with you.

Meh, from all those polls throughout the year, Oblivion seemed to be pretty much on par with KH2. And given MP2's disastrous reception compared to MP1, I sincerely doubt it would beat KH2. Of course, Oblivion's likely not quite as strong as KH2, but MP2 isn't much of an opponent, honestly.

And if you think PM2 is that strong, you'd better be taking Bowser to crush everything in his way. >_<
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/17/2007 11:49:25 PM | message detail
I could see Marcus being a CJ thing, but I've never played Gears of War so I can't really say. I'm just banking on the 360 fanbase voting him over absolutely anything.
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Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:49:34 PM | message detail
Big difference, tranny. This statistically possible upset pick has my stamp of approval. When does that happen that I take a statistically possible upset pick that works! Never!

So thusly, it should have the vibe of... let me think... statistically possible upset pick that I took... Sonic/Crono, there we go! Vincent > Crono for victory!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
transience | Posted 8/17/2007 11:50:53 PM | message detail
well, now you've got Lopen on your side.

have fun, losers!
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8-bit plastic love machine
ZFS | Posted 8/17/2007 11:51:45 PM | message detail
on the Vincent thing... I feel like it's Mario Kart all over again. it's something you can explain statistically, it'll be a sexy stats topic bandwagon pick that a lot of the board will jump on, but when the time comes for the poll Crono will end up winning it.

Thinking the same thing, at least as far as people jumping on the Vincent bandwagon and Crono ultimately winning!

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Believe
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/17/2007 11:55:42 PM | message detail
Thinking the same thing, at least as far as people jumping on the Vincent bandwagon and Crono ultimately winning!

Nice.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
Lopen | Posted 8/17/2007 11:56:27 PM | message detail
You don't play Gears of War and think "Man, I have no clue who that is." That's just not happening; I'm not buying that

I'm not buying that was so much the case with San Andreas->CJ, either. Yes, the picture was bad, and not CJ.. however, it was a loading screen art, so you'd recognize it. And the name gets Carl Johnson gets mentioned... sometimes, in the game.

Don't get me wrong... I think CJ would've done better with a better pic and being called CJ instead of Carl Johnson, but let's not exaggerate it too much. All things considered he was a weak character from a game that was more popular than GoW.

well, now you've got Lopen on your side.

have fun, losers!


... shut up! I actually do fairly well on the debated matches... it's the matches that aren't debated that I go against anyway that screw me! <_<
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
transience | Posted 8/17/2007 11:58:27 PM | message detail
well, I'd probably take Carl Johnson over Zelos, too. this isn't exactly a star-studded fourpack.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 11:58:53 PM | message detail
Don't get me wrong... I think CJ would've done better with a better pic and being called CJ instead of Carl Johnson, but let's not exaggerate it too much. All things considered he was a weak character from a game that was more popular than GoW.

He'd still beat Zelos, though.
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ZFS | Posted 8/17/2007 11:59:33 PM | message detail
And while I hate to bring it up as any sort of "evidence," it's better than the stuff that's being spread around here. Harrich mentioned it a few days ago, I believe, but Fenix actually did end up winning a poll for "Best New Character" over at G4. It was done in a similar fashion to what we have here -- multiple characters and you vote through a poll.

Now there needs to be a big disclaimer here that says "Yes, I realize that G4 and GameFAQs are hardly similar," but it's worth the consideration. The options were Fenix (Gears), Midna (TP), Mii (Wii), Frank West (Dead Rising), and Amaterasu (Okami). He didn't just win; he dominated the poll. Got over 51% of the vote in the end.

Again, more than aware that GameFAQs doesn't equal G4, but the whole "no one knows who Marcus Fenix is" is really farfetched, and I'm not sure what it's supposed to be based on. Doesn't mean he's going to be strong, doesn't mean he's the face of the game like Master Chief is to Halo, but he does show that there's a definite chunk of folks out there who know him. I'm not even sure where that idea came from, but it's a pretty silly one.

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Believe
transience | Posted 8/18/2007 12:00:13 AM | message detail
I'll go into a bit more detail. if this were Cloud or something instead of Kefka, I'd certainly give him some more thought. but.. it's Kefka. he's not going to suck up many votes. Zelos is going to get a certain amount of votes no matter what, and he's not going to exceed that total. Marcus will likely get the remaining votes, and that will push him over Zelos. is it 100%? nah, who knows with Marcus. but I like his chances compare to Zelos.
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"There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/18/2007 12:04:52 AM | message detail
Now there needs to be a big disclaimer here that says "Yes, I realize that G4 and GameFAQs are hardly similar," but it's worth the consideration. The options were Fenix (Gears), Midna (TP), Mii (Wii), Frank West (Dead Rising), and Amaterasu (Okami). He didn't just win; he dominated the poll. Got over 51% of the vote in the end.

You got any links/info on how the others did?
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ZFS | Posted 8/18/2007 12:05:32 AM | message detail
And I think I saw a comparison to Gordon Freeman and I'm really not sure why. You see Fenix throughout the entirety of Gears, Fenix actually speaks and has a character. Is it particulary endearing? No -- he's of the "badass" mold. He's the kick ass first, ask questions later. In the grand scheme of gaming, does that make him unique? No, not really. But do those types of characters often get a lot of fans? Oh, yeah they do.

It's certainly tempered here due to GameFAQs being dramatically different from the rest of the gaming community, but that's why there's expectations set for that. Really, Zelos? If Zelos beats Fenix -- and I don't want to sound like I'm saying it's impossible, but I'm going to -- I'll eat my shoe.

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Believe
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2007 12:08:14 AM | message detail
I'm curious; how well did CJ do in G4's polls, if they have it on there?
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ZFS | Posted 8/18/2007 12:08:20 AM | message detail
Nah. Unfortunately not, they only reveal the winner's percentage. If I had to guess, I'd imagine that Midna pulled in a solid second.

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Believe
Lopen | Posted 8/18/2007 12:10:02 AM | message detail
CJ vs Zelos straight up, I lean towards CJ at first, but probably end up taking Zelos anyway. CJ replacing Marcus Fenix here? I take Zelos without thinking about it. A character from a game that widespread is only going to get weaker if you put him in a poll with more options, assuming he's crappy in the first place. Because it basically means that he got SFFed out of votes against one opponent to lose.

Hmmm, that's interesting, though. Is Midna liked? I might have to go with Scorpion/Kratos instead of Midna/Scorpion.

Yes, I used this bit of knowledge HM provided in completely the wrong way... heh.

But if there's a chance that Marcus Fenix is actually appreciated, I might have to change this pick. I'm just saying widespread/good game doesn't necessarily make him a winner... and I think it only makes him weaker in this contest if he doesn't really have fans.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
transience | Posted 8/18/2007 12:14:10 AM | message detail
well, I guess it comes down to this: I think Kratos > Sheena > Zelos >= Lloyd. not too high on ol' Zelos.
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"There's "Awesome," then a few more notches up there is "Amazing," go a few more up and there's "Impeccable." Finally, after climbing a mountain of distance there's "Yuri Hyuga." - HM
ZFS | Posted 8/18/2007 12:16:22 AM | message detail
Fenix's competition is ... let's just say it's not exactly characters who are going to steal his casual appeal. I mean, you're talking about Kefka, Zelos, and Tom Nook. Not exactly a cast that invokes a lot of worry that his fans, and the people that really love Gears, are going to jump ship. It'd be different if, like tran said, there was someone like a Cloud or a Snake or someone who has both the casual appeal and the more "badass" attitude to syphon those votes away.

I wouldn't necessarily say Fenix's fanbase is dedicated like others, but they don't really need to be up against pretty much a bunch of fodder. Not to say that Fenix himself is going to be world's better -- he may not -- but I'd take Fenix over every one of them one-on-one, and I don't think they bring enough to the table to keep him from advancing here. He may not win the poll, but I don't think I've ever questioned the likelihood of him advancing.

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Believe
Draco1214 | Posted 8/18/2007 12:18:15 AM | message detail
Oh, Marcus Fenix is getting to Round 2...but not farther than that unless Cloud really manages to syphon Kefka and Jill/Ocelot into oblivion.
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Lopen | Posted 8/18/2007 12:27:56 AM | message detail
Eh, I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. All I'm saying is meh characters from popular games are in their worst element in this contest, and that GoW might not be as popular here as the polls let off anyway.

You're right in that these characters aren't huge vote siphons... but Kefka might be enough to get Zelos enough cushioning (and since he's not against powerhouses either, it's quite feasible for him to break his "hardcore following", getting into the high 20s or low 30s). I mean... FF6 is one of the top games on this site, and given the chance against jobber fodder I think Kefka could smite it fairly effectively. (See Wesker/Kefka... okay... Kefka/Mithos is odd, but that's ToS, which might support Zelos. And yes, I think Angel Kefka is a tad overblown)

Yes, Zelos is likely fodder... but he's strong fodder. Kefka and Fenix would in no way blow him out normally. And he's likely to do better in this environment.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lopen | Posted 8/18/2007 12:39:56 AM | message detail
And for the record, I'm thinking the poll will go something like...

Kefka: 37%
Zelos: 30%
Fenix: 26%
Nook: 9%

I don't know if that sounds too high for Kefka, too high for Zelos, or too low for Fenix for most of you, but it looks feasible to me. (Or too low for Nook... haw haw.)
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
ffmasterjose | Posted 8/18/2007 1:00:11 AM | message detail
Has the four-pack with Duke and Gordon been discussed already? If so, point me in the right direction. >_>
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ffmasterjose
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