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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 451

creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 11:34:39 PM | message detail
KH:
Halo would've never come close to beating Wind Waker, and no, neither would have beaten MGS2.

I have trouble believing this (that MGS2>Halo back then). A *lot* of trouble.


Mac:
Kid Icarus doesn't have strength. It's old, and it hasn't stood the test of time. Pit doesn't have much advantage over Animal Crossing characters, really.

Well I think Tingle should be the favorite, but Pit could win. In fact I think if his name was listed as "Kid Icarus" he'd be the favorite, but as "Pit" I think Tingle will probably win.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 11:36:14 PM | message detail
I was *never* referring to site ownership - I was referring to the ludicrous assertion that Soul Calibur was to the DC as freaking Halo was to the Xbox.

Ah. Not quite, I suppose, but close. As SSBM was to the GC might be a better comparison, I guess. And SC does have a small advantage in that the DC was more popular than the Xbox.

Hmm...I'm a little confused as to the relevancy. Is this supposed to be that since Xenogears>Pokemon, Serge can beat Pikachu? How does Serge relate to Tactics?

Yes, originally it was about how Chrono Cross is almost as strong as Xenogears, and thus Serge easily beats Pikachu.

But the FFT part? Honestly? It doesn't really matter at all, since any fluctuation in Xenogears directly affects the strength of GSC.

I was just thinking to myself "why is Serge here instead of Fei?", so I brought it up.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 11:39:00 PM | message detail
Well I think Tingle should be the favorite, but Pit could win. In fact I think if his name was listed as "Kid Icarus" he'd be the favorite, but as "Pit" I think Tingle will probably win.

I'm just looking at all the games that made it into the 8-bit division (which KI failed to), and thinking to myself that Kid Icarus loses to almost all of them. Is Pit that important in his game that it would make up for his game's total weakness?
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/16/2007 11:39:22 PM | message detail
Is Mudkip and Bidoof going to be as strong as Nidoran F? Remember, Nidoran F is at least an old classic pokemon.

Possibly. Never know how powerful 4chan is.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 11:39:48 PM | message detail
Pit is depending entirely on SSBB hype to advance past that fourpack.

Entirely. Kid Icarus is a complete nonfactor.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 11:40:12 PM | message detail
I have trouble believing this (that MGS2>Halo back then). A *lot* of trouble.

Stats aside - why? What would possibly give you reason to think that GameFAQs, the virulently anti-Xbox site that it is (and was even moreso back then) would prefer Halo over MGS2? Master Chief nearly losing to Felix?

People can't just get past the stats there. It was a given that SC would flop in the series contest (and it would flop if we saw it again), there's a reason why Halo keeps flopping, there's a reason why that whole division has done nothing but disappoint (other than KH, which got a new and *very* well received game). Correct me if I'm wrong, but using the qualification "back then" - doesn't that imply that MGS2 would beat Halo now? You'd probably take MGS2 > SC now as well, if you didn't there.

Games are more liable to have staying power than characters. Like I said - there are coincidences, and then there's this.
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Halcyon26 | Posted 8/16/2007 11:40:19 PM | message detail
Concerning Sonic>Snake, not only do I think it's reasonable to think Snake might get some votes siphoned away by the other two (which alone could be enough to put Sonic ahead), I'll bank on Sonic being announced for Brawl by the time that match occurs. That'll be enough to but Sonic on top.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 11:45:15 PM | message detail
Correct me if I'm wrong, but using the qualification "back then" - doesn't that imply that MGS2 would beat Halo now? You'd probably take MGS2 > SC now as well, if you didn't there.

I also here people saying that Raiden would do a lot better on Snake now than he would "back then", because MGS2/Raiden hate has died down. MGS2 seems like it would be stronger than it was back then, and SC certainly seems like it would be weaker - I can't imagine a fighting game series having huge staying power on GameFAQs.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 11:47:44 PM | message detail
Raiden hate going down is one thing - and a big part of it is because he's a character - but I can't see either MGS2 or SC's strengths changing much from what they were in 2k4 (not that the 2k4 stats are useful, but that's due to a myriad of other factors).

*checks again*

why oh why are there SFF-adjusted stats for 2k4
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creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 11:50:38 PM | message detail
Leonhart:
Pit is depending entirely on SSBB hype to advance past that fourpack.

Entirely. Kid Icarus is a complete nonfactor.


This is probably true because he's listed as Pit. And since he'll probably get an SSBB pic he won't get the old-school votes. Tingle does seem to be the safest choice there. But Pit has some chance.


KH:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but using the qualification "back then" - doesn't that imply that MGS2 would beat Halo now? You'd probably take MGS2 > SC now as well, if you didn't there.

Actually I'd take Halo over MGS2 now without hesitation. It's just that we were talking about back then, and there would be more uncertainty now. Back then I don't see much uncertainty that Halo would've beaten MGS2.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 11:52:56 PM | message detail
Actually I'd take Halo over MGS2 now without hesitation. It's just that we were talking about back then, and there would be more uncertainty now. Back then I don't see much uncertainty that Halo would've beaten MGS2.

And again I ask... why?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 11:55:08 PM | message detail
Halo > GTAVC > MGS2 is the simplest explanation.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 11:55:58 PM | message detail
Trusting anything from Division 128 is just asking for trouble.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 11:57:16 PM | message detail
Yes, Mac, I'm well aware you're incapable of thinking for yourself. Anyone want to provide a rationale beyond plugging in two numbers?
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 11:57:53 PM | message detail
This whole topic might as well be renamed "Game Contest 2004 Stats and Discussion" right now

>_>
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 11:59:22 PM | message detail
I'm incapable of thinking for myself...so where does my Xenogears support come from? Sometimes you have to look beyond what's obviously true, because not all contest results are obvious.

What's your explanation for Vice City doing better against SSBM than MGS2 did, if not that it's a stronger game?
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2007 12:02:21 AM | message detail
...I'm not sure where I ever said that GTA: VC wasn't stronger than MGS2 (at least as of 2004, though that match being "flukish" is hardly out of the question)... more importantly, VC has NOTHING to do with Halo's relation to MGS2.

And concerning Xenogears - it's obvious that it was SFFed, there's no dispute there. You just take it WAY. TOO. FAR.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 12:06:31 AM | message detail
Bomberman's not as strong as he was then. And you're underestimating Phoenix Wright.

Bomberman was about to blow Squall up in his last match, so that might've even inflated Bomberman's performances a bit. I'm not so sure Bomberman could even take on Gordon Freeman. Phoenix Wright probably got a bit stronger, too. The original game has dropped a lot in price and has sold lots more. Plus, there's PW:JFA now. Too bad the third one isn't released until October 23rd...

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JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/17/2007 12:08:20 AM | message detail
Came in here wanted to discuss this year bracket but seeing that people are arguing that whether MGS2 or Halo is stronger, i think i will come back tomorrow.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 12:08:32 AM | message detail
Comes out in Japan on August 23rd, fully emulatiable and with the English translation included.

...Not that that will do much, but it might win him a few hundred votes, which could matter here.

The original game has dropped a lot in price and has sold lots more.

Indeed. Comparable to God of War between 2k5 and 2k6, I think - on a much smaller scale, obviously, but then it's also easier to boost when you're that weak.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2007 12:09:52 AM | message detail
Peach has been unveiled on the Smash site! Peach > CATS confirmed!

There's a picture of Peach using Toad!

Toad > Mewtwo CONFIRMED!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 12:27:11 AM | message detail
Peach was the Brawl update today. All other discussion is meaningless.

~*ST*~
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 12:58:34 AM | message detail
Peach is finally announced, but what about LUIGI? Why does the poor little brother have to keep on being gypped like that?

I am suddenly worried about the Amatetaiehgfuial/Matt/Little Mac and Mudkip/Tingle/Pit again, thanks to the BOP and increased discussion. I took the joke characters without hesitation, heh. Could anyone provide a pic of what Matt might look like in the contest? (image searching didn't work so well...) One thing is for sure, and it's that I refuse to pick Tingle for second place... ugh. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, though. I just realized... if Tingle gets out of Round 1, he'll be facing Ganondorf... maybe it would be worth seeing him win, after all. =P

Phoenix is favored over Bomberman in the BOP? Not that it means he has any better chance, given the PW fanboyism around... one thing I fear about PW's chances (aside from strength itself) is that the big drawer, Magus, isn't mainstream, meaning all that's left for mainstream voters is Crash and Bomberman. Hopefully mainstream/non-mainstream differentiation will end up being nearly a non-factor, though.

Put your browser over the character's name on the far left on the bracket page for a brief description of the character.
No idea what that means (Do you mean put the CURSOR over the character's name?), but I found that right clicking on the name and selecting "properties" works... =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/17/2007 1:00:37 AM | message detail
Yeah Nintendo, Quit screwing Luigi.

I mean cmon, he had the perfect voice in MK64(well english anyways), and you took it away and made him into a wuss -_-
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/17/2007 1:03:15 AM | message detail
Luigi was an unlockable character. No unlockables have been announced yet.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:04:05 AM | message detail
"I'm-a Luigi! Number one!" was the most stylish phrase in all of MK64. ;)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:07:59 AM | message detail
Luigi was an unlockable character. No unlockables have been announced yet.

Ah... so maybe THAT'S why Meta-Knight and Solid Snake haven't been announced on the site yet?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Pikawil100 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:10:32 AM | message detail
Luigi is so screwed because Youtube Poops have tainted his name into Mama Luigi.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/17/2007 1:12:47 AM | message detail
"I'm-a Luigi! Number one!" was the most stylish phrase in all of MK64. ;)

That it was.

I dont like what Nintendo did to Yoshi either. They shouldve kept the old noises.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:18:21 AM | message detail
I sincerely believe that Mudkip will advance in second place out of that four-pack.

Mudkip's fanbase is the most independent of Luigi's (relatively), and he has 4chan backing him, so at least SOMEONE will be voting for him. I simply cannot imagine Tingle or Pit drawing ANY support alongside Luigi.

Tingle is hated within his series. Pit is obscure outside of SSBB hype, and I would wager that he's the least of any of the new characters announced thus far. Supposedly anyone who plays the newer Pokemon games knows Mudkip and he's supposedly worthwhile to have.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 1:24:24 AM | message detail
I picked Mudkip because I refuse to pick Tingle. I don't care what stats have to say, either

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 1:27:08 AM | message detail
Although for the statheads out there, Nidoran F was 100% joke vote, was likely SFFd by Samus and is still barely behind Tingle, who is probably overrated because KH gets anti-voted a bit in all of its matches. It isn't much, but means a lot in a four-way match. Unless Mudkip gets SFFd, I think he can pass.

If Tingle survives, I'll hate you all.

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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:27:09 AM | message detail
I always got the impression that Tingle would sue me (or worse) if I ever stole "Kooloo-LimpAH!"
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:29:19 AM | message detail
Unless Mudkip gets SFFd, I think he can pass.

That's a big part of my reasoning. Mudkip is far less likely to be SFF'd than Pit in that poll, and the same probably goes for Tingle.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/17/2007 1:30:55 AM | message detail
I'm pretty confident that Pit will score last place, because he isn't going by the name Kid Icarus.

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:32:21 AM | message detail
Since Luigi's most likely gonna easily exceed 60% of the vote (prolly the second biggest blowout of the contest after Link), Mudkip does look good with those joke votes.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:33:08 AM | message detail
Anyone who might be persuaded to vote for him based solely on SSBB hype is already busy voting for Luigi, unless you want to get into a sentient voting block deciding that Luigi was locked in and Pit needed their support.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:34:01 AM | message detail
Since Luigi's most likely gonna easily exceed 60% of the vote (prolly the second biggest blowout of the contest after Link), Mudkip does look good with those joke votes.

That's a very conservative estimate, IMO.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:37:33 AM | message detail
You're thinking 80% or something, then? Be my guest... more room for Mudkip to win. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
transience | Posted 8/17/2007 1:41:49 AM | message detail
I doubt Luigi breaks 70% - he's just not that universally liked.

but then, considering his competition...
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:42:52 AM | message detail
LOL, yeah, I was actually just thinking I'd set the over/under at 80%.

I mean, look at that lineup. Anyone who bothers to vote will vote for Luigi, unless they're joke-voting Mudkip. Where would votes for Pit or Tingle even come from? Describe to me the kind of gamer who would vote for either of them against Luigi, and then ask yourself if there are even 4000 of these people combined.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:45:47 AM | message detail
Luigi's not universally liked? Hmmm...that's news to me. If it's true, I think I might lower my over/under, but not my prediction.

I really thought everyone who knows who he is (like 98% of visitors to this site, I'd say) has a favorable opinion of him. Sure, his hardcore fanbase isn't large, but that's not going to matter against these scrubs.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:46:31 AM | message detail
I half want to see Tingle advance just to see the smackdown the combined SFF force of Ganon and Luigi will cause.
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transience | Posted 8/17/2007 1:49:44 AM | message detail
well he's not hated or anything, but I'd bet quite a bit that he doesn't break 80%.
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Starion | Posted 8/17/2007 1:51:04 AM | message detail
Pokemon and Legend of Zelda loyalists who would vote for characters in the series no matter who they were facing. There has to be a not insignificant number of them. Not sure just how much they are in terms of % though (5%? 8%? each). That doesn't bode well for Pit in that case.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/17/2007 1:52:17 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm 50/50 on him breaking 80, but (and I'm completely being redundant here) there simply is no option for anyone who sees the poll and doesn't like Luigi enough to vote for him. Those people simply won't vote.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2007 2:14:41 AM | message detail
You know... we're at a prime opportunity to revive the traditional "Betting" contest (originally done by Ringworm, correct?). There are enough tough matches to make it fun, difficult, and intense.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
voltch | Posted 8/17/2007 3:07:40 AM | message detail
how does one make a x-stat with the current format anyway?
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__Mega64__ | Posted 8/17/2007 3:41:23 AM | message detail
I'm pretty confident that Pit will score last place, because he isn't going by the name Kid Icarus.

I think he'd do worse as Kid Icarus, actually. It's not like anyone gave a **** about Kid Icarus until Pit was announced for Brawl.

If Nidoran F came close to breaking 20% on Samus, I don't see Luigi breaking 80% against a more popular joke Pokemon and two other competitors. I would love to see Luigi get every single vote and finish with a solid 100% in every single match he's in, but I don't think even 80% in Round 1 is gonna happen.

Just as long as Tingle gets 0 votes, I'm happy.
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transience | Posted 8/17/2007 3:55:03 AM | message detail
I think he'd do worse as Kid Icarus, actually. It's not like anyone gave a **** about Kid Icarus until Pit was announced for Brawl.

this is a lie.

though there may only be a couple dozen people like me out there.
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xyzzy
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