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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 451

ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 9:49:52 PM | message detail
53%. That's a couple more than MC beat DK with. And this is when he was supposed to receive somewhat of a boost from Halo 2. Yuna definitely has the potential to do something against Chief in Round 1 OR 2, folks.

You're looking at this entirely the wrong way, I think. But to each his own.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 9:50:36 PM | message detail
you can't compare Xenogears to FFT. you just can't.

FFT to Chrono Cross? maybe.


Huh? Xenogears is definitely more popular than CC, by at least a little.

but there's no way I buy Xenogears being in the same league as FFT. it's not getting 50% on MGS. sorry.

And FFT's not getting more than 58% on Pokemon GSC. Sorry.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 9:51:26 PM | message detail
Your just counting on Chief to not disappoint for once in his contest career, HM. I'm sick of the Chief choking on me and am going for something different in my bracket this contest.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 9:53:38 PM | message detail
And I feel bad arguing against Xenogears considering how big a fan I've become of it... but it's by that same token that I appreciate how NOT nearly as popular as FFT it is.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:55:07 PM | message detail
Do you think Sonic dropped last year? Because a constant Luigi boost Sonic less than 1% over his 2K5 value and seeing as he finally was able to overcome both MM and Crono in the stats, I'd say that's pretty fair. Sure you can also attribute that to Crono and MM not looking as hot as ever, but even if they did drop (and I think they did), I really don't think it's anything more than a 1% or so (I'd be willing to push it a little further with MM). Yes, I know the 2K6 stats are broken to all hell, but Luigi just seemed to work the best when I was messing around with everything last year, at least to me, and I know I saw his name thrown around by at least a couple of other people. I'm just trying to make as much sense as I can out of them, and I really don't think it's crazy to think Snake is on Mario's level indirectly, with as much ass kicking as he handed out. I think the problem once again boils down to our highly publicized differing feelings on Samus.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 9:55:52 PM | message detail
No, you just completely ignored the fact that MP is behind STARCRAFT

Seems I did. Probably balances out any possible Wind Waker SFF, but you could bump MP down a percent or two if you wanted. It doesn't really change things.

But to the extent that you're saying is highly unlikely, especially considering that it has a total of ONE appearance in any shape or form in contests. It's not like this is FFVI we're talking about here (which still manages to get characters represented in droves), it's Xenogears. The game has a clear main character, a clear fan-favorite, it's pretty much your typical RPG... that can't get a single character in. MGS has entered, what, six? seven?

It took rallies for FFVI to get characters other than Kefka in, and Kefka's a bigger fan favorite than anyone in Xenogears.

And I'm not trying to say that Xenogears is more popular than FFVI. >_>

About Final Fantasy Tactics? You sure about that?

The name factor is highly overrated. Mario Kart was still absolutely crushed, and by something weaker than MGS. Sure, it may do something...but 50% against MGS? On name alone?

53%. That's a couple more than MC beat DK with. And this is when he was supposed to receive somewhat of a boost from Halo 2. Yuna definitely has the potential to do something against Chief in Round 1 OR 2, folks.

DK overperformed on Chief. Don't forget about his anti-votes.
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transience | Posted 8/16/2007 9:57:02 PM | message detail
I think a lot of FFT's votes were for "Final Fantasy" than for the actual game. you know, fans who are ambivalent to MGS, don't really know/care about FFT but voted for it anyway. I certainly don't think that result is "legit", especially after all the FF/MGS weirdness we've seen over the years.

plus, I don't think that match is nearly that close today. MGS seems stronger now, though I have no reason for thinking this other than Snake's increase from 2004 to now.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 9:57:26 PM | message detail
Don't forget about his anti-votes.

You could say that in every match Chief has been in, with the exception of like....Crono/Chief.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 9:57:27 PM | message detail
The difference between Master Chief in prior contests -- who has hardly been bad -- and what Master Chief can do in this contest is huge. You can't look at one-on-one polls from years past and determine what he's going to do in this contest. Saying "Well, Yuna would get this against [insert MC opponent], which is higher than what Chief got, so Yuna > Chief" doesn't work.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 9:58:21 PM | message detail
Do you think Sonic dropped last year? Because a constant Luigi boost Sonic less than 1% over his 2K5 value and seeing as he finally was able to overcome both MM and Crono in the stats, I'd say that's pretty fair. Sure you can also attribute that to Crono and MM not looking as hot as ever, but even if they did drop (and I think they did), I really don't think it's anything more than a 1% or so (I'd be willing to push it a little further with MM). Yes, I know the 2K6 stats are broken to all hell, but Luigi just seemed to work the best when I was messing around with everything last year, at least to me, and I know I saw his name thrown around by at least a couple of other people.

One of the main anomalies in the 2k6 stats is that everyone in Sonic's quarter of the bracket looks underrated. Why? Who knows. But there it is.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:58:44 PM | message detail
You know what, I retract my earlier statement about DK beating Yuna with 52% of the vote. I don't know why, but I completely forgot about DK being overrated in 2K5, I'd probably swap it around and take Yuna with 52% of the vote.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 9:59:13 PM | message detail
You could say that in every match Chief has been in,

The key is that you can't say it about any of his matches in this contest.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 9:59:21 PM | message detail
plus, I don't think that match is nearly that close today. MGS seems stronger now, though I have no reason for thinking this other than Snake's increase from 2004 to now.

I'll certainly agree with that.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 9:59:52 PM | message detail
Explain the difference to me. Sure, the 360 is being SLIGHTLY better received here on GameFAQs than the original Xbox was. Sure, Halo 3 is doing incredible with pre-order records and will probably be one of the top 10, maybe even top 5 best selling games of this generation. But there is still quite the difference between the casual gaming world and GameFAQs.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 10:00:02 PM | message detail
You have no ****ing idea how much I hate the bracket not being up on creative's website for 2K6!

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:02:22 PM | message detail
But anyway, this all started as being about Serge vs. Pikachu. And really, you don't have to look any further than Xenogears vs. PGSC for an answer to that.

And of course, don't forget to rally Fei (or Citan? Dammit, Fei would probably be stronger, but I like Citan so much more...) for 2k8!
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
therealmnm | Posted 8/16/2007 10:03:02 PM | message detail
I actually think Xenogears was just as popular as Final Fantasy Tactics during those PS1 days. It's just never going to show in a contest setting since it doesn't have "Final Fantasy" in its name. Final Fantasy Tactics may have caught up since with it becoming a full-fledge series and more people going back to play it, but it wasn't like Xenogears was cult during the PS1 era. All of Square's games were pretty popular then.

Of course, I don't think that Fei or Serge amount to much in a contest setting.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 10:03:48 PM | message detail
That's because you know how to differentiate between characters and games, MNM >_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:04:01 PM | message detail
Explain the difference to me. Sure, the 360 is being SLIGHTLY better received here on GameFAQs than the original Xbox was. Sure, Halo 3 is doing incredible with pre-order records and will probably be one of the top 10, maybe even top 5 best selling games of this generation. But there is still quite the difference between the casual gaming world and GameFAQs.

The 360's infinitely more popular here than the original Xbox was.

And getting a new game on a new console is usually a bigger deal (strength-wise) than getting a new game on the same console. I'm not expecting a huge boost...but 2-4%? That's reasonable.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 10:04:08 PM | message detail
Explain the difference to me. Sure, the 360 is being SLIGHTLY better received here on GameFAQs than the original Xbox was. Sure, Halo 3 is doing incredible with pre-order records and will probably be one of the top 10, maybe even top 5 best selling games of this generation. But there is still quite the difference between the casual gaming world and GameFAQs.

So what you're saying basically is that because GameFAQs doesn't want to suck Halo and MC's wang, that he's not going to boost at least a little bit from Halo 3? Seriously, what the hell are you getting at with this? We know the casual gaming world and GameFAQs are different places, otherwise MC would be a Top 10 character. That doesn't mean that he can't become more popular, because he's not in the upper tier of characters.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 10:04:36 PM | message detail
Explain the difference to me. Sure, the 360 is being SLIGHTLY better received here on GameFAQs than the original Xbox was. Sure, Halo 3 is doing incredible with pre-order records and will probably be one of the top 10, maybe even top 5 best selling games of this generation. But there is still quite the difference between the casual gaming world and GameFAQs.

I was talking solely about the format of this contest. This is the kind of contest that someone like Master Chief would excel in -- the anti-voters that he gets are essentially gone. He also managed to pull the best possible path he could in this thing. Between certain characters being suspectible to fanbase splits, he faces no one, except in the semifinals, that is well beyond what he's capable of competing with.

If you wanna bring Halo 3 into the matter, and if the recent Xbox 360 and Halo 3 polls are any indication, the ownership for the system and the game will be roughly 50% sometime in the near future. I'm not sure of the original Xbox's peak ownership here, but that's pretty noteworthy regardless. And again, between the format and his competition, none of this is relying on any sort of miracle.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:06:30 PM | message detail
Of course, I don't think that Fei or Serge amount to much in a contest setting.

I'm curious why not? They are character-based games, and I don't see why they'd be weaker than Ramza/Aya/Kratos A/Vyse/insert other non-FF RPG character.

I'm not expecting them to be big deals (especially not Serge), just around the low 20s on BL.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 10:07:20 PM | message detail
Assuming Tommy Vercetti and PaRappa completely bomb like I expect them to, MC will still probably get some anti-votes in that match. Maybe not as many as usual, but it's still gonna be a presence. That will be the perfect test to see whether or not your "the anti-votes will be split" theory.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:10:33 PM | message detail
In a match between MC and Yuna, I'd vote MC. It would be an anti-vote.

Here, though, I'll be voting for PaRappa instead, since I dislike him less than the other members of the fourpack.

Split anti-votes confirmed!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 10:11:54 PM | message detail
Do you think Sonic dropped last year?

That's not necessarily what I'm saying. You ask me, Luigi is simply *stronger* than he was in 2k5, but the overperformance or whatever from Sonic makes him appear comparatively equal or weaker. I know that's much ado about nothing since it's Sonic we're discussing (although it does explain Zero), but that invalidates it from being a good benchmark - least for me.

Your argument instead becomes (and I'm aware that I'm using suppositions and assumptions like crazy to further my point, oh wells <.<) that Sonic 2k6 is greater than or equal to Sonic 2k5, therefore Crono's drop has a floor of X percent. In which case, yes, I do think Sonic "dropped" - or more accurately, that Snake got more on him than he "should" have.

You're completely correct about the reasoning and the conclusions, of course, but we were already well aware of that. COMPLETELY setting stats aside, Samus just hasn't performed on the caliber of Mario. Would Mario ever come close to losing to someone so far beneath him, regardless of the picture? - of course not, it's freaking Mario, but that there is also one of the reasons for being more popular in the first place.

Samus has shown too many weaknesses. While it would obviously take something like back-to-back Sephiroth matches to verify it beyond a shadow of a doubt, I see no reason to consider Samus above Mario until she, yes, "proves it."

Seems I did. Probably balances out any possible Wind Waker SFF, but you could bump MP down a percent or two if you wanted. It doesn't really change things.

Unless MP is near equal with WW, it didn't get SFFed at all. And you're sorely underrating how messed up that half-division is - take Soul Calibur to beat MGS2. I dare ya.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:15:04 PM | message detail
Unless MP is near equal with WW, it didn't get SFFed at all. And you're sorely underrating how messed up that half-division is - take Soul Calibur to beat MGS2. I dare ya.

That's a terrible example, since I'd almost certainly take Kingdom Hearts to beat MGS2, and so would plenty of others. And that gives Soul Calibur a great shot at beating MGS2.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 10:16:30 PM | message detail
since I'd almost certainly take Kingdom Hearts to beat MGS2, and so would plenty of others

I'd hope not.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:17:43 PM | message detail
I'd hope not.

In 2k4, anyway. I do believe that MGS's strength has increased since then, which would make it tougher.

What's wrong with KH > MGS2, by the way?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 10:18:36 PM | message detail
That's a terrible example, since I'd almost certainly take Kingdom Hearts to beat MGS2, and so would plenty of others. And that gives Soul Calibur a great shot at beating MGS2.

No, it doesn't, it shows that you're blindly following the numbers instead of recognizing that 1.) Kingdom Hearts had NO shot at MGS2 in 2k4 and 2.) it nearly lost to Soul Calibur because of that very reason. Soul Calibur NEVER had a shot against MGS2. The Series Contest is proof positive of that reality.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 8/16/2007 10:19:44 PM | message detail
I'm curious why not? They are character-based games, and I don't see why they'd be weaker than Ramza/Aya/Kratos A/Vyse/insert other non-FF RPG character.

I'm not expecting them to be big deals (especially not Serge), just around the low 20s on BL.


Although I don't think Serge or Fei were as popular as Aya in 2k2, they still would have done pretty well back then. I don't expect much out of any of them now.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/16/2007 10:20:42 PM | message detail
Fair enough, we're just going to have to disagree since 2K6 is such a cluster-**** that anyone's differing position of the stats could be considered reasonable (well, I'm sure some people could manage to screw even that up, but I don't need to name, names). I'm very aware Samus has many more weakness than Mario, and I'm gladly willing to admit it. Give Mario a Metal Mario or Racoon Mario pic, and I agree, there's no way Tifa is getting that close to him, hell I was kinda nervous going into this contest about picking Samus to advance of numerous people because of the threat of a ZSS pic. I felt pretty confident Ceej wouldn't use one again after what happened last time, but I really couldn't be sure, and now that he's not even running the contest, I really have no ****ing clue. Fortunately, Samus' path is pretty damn cut and dry this year, though she could certainly falter with MM with a ZSS pic, but I still don't see her going lower than 2nd, and that would only be worth half the points. Once SSBB actually comes out, it won't really be that much of a factor to me anymore though, at least not to the extent that it is now. Everyone will realize it's the same old Samus, thanks to it just being her final smash, though I'm sure the pic would still hurt her, because everyone knows character design is a huge part of her popularity.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 10:21:03 PM | message detail
Man, this topic went downhill fast.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
transience | Posted 8/16/2007 10:21:32 PM | message detail
so... Pikachu beats Serge.
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Nobody9090 | Posted 8/16/2007 10:21:34 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero defeating Master Chief was the best correct pick to happen to one of my brackets ever.

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transience | Posted 8/16/2007 10:22:02 PM | message detail
and Vivi, because nobody cares about modern Final Fantasy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 10:22:07 PM | message detail
And I'm just curious: How much percentage do you think Sephiroth gets in his fourpack? I'm dangerously close to switching to Sephy > CATS.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:23:47 PM | message detail
No, it doesn't, it shows that you're blindly following the numbers instead of recognizing that 1.) Kingdom Hearts had NO shot at MGS2 in 2k4 and 2.) it nearly lost to Soul Calibur because of that very reason. Soul Calibur NEVER had a shot against MGS2. The Series Contest is proof positive of that reality.

What did the series contest prove? That the MGS series is stronger than the KH and Soul Calibur series? We already knew that. But it stays stronger than either of those series even without MGS2, so I'm not seeing your point here. MGS2 is its weakest link, after all.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 10:24:31 PM | message detail
And I'm just curious: How much percentage do you think Sephiroth gets in his fourpack?

At least 60%.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/16/2007 10:25:02 PM | message detail
Hm, hm, hm...

Anti-votes aren't going to happen in a match between 4 people. In fact, anti-voting is a stupid term for that phenomenon. It's just... Liking the other character more.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:25:38 PM | message detail
CATS: 11%
Meta Knight: 5%
Princess Peach: 14%
Sephiroth: 70%
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 10:26:46 PM | message detail
SC1 is widely considered to be SC's weakest link from a popularity standpoint as well.

More importantly... Metal Gear got 70% on Soul Calibur. None of its games are gonna beat even the weakest MGS head-to-head. Not even close.

And just to mention, by putting MGS above MGS2 as far as the Games Contest goes... HOW strong did you think Xenogears was, again?
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/16/2007 10:27:52 PM | message detail
The difference between Master Chief in prior contests -- who has hardly been bad -- and what Master Chief can do in this contest is huge.

Exactly. People always gloss over that, you'd think Chief was a scrub that anyone can just walk over.

That said, you have to take those 50% ownership polls with a grain of salt. The first poll, about strict xbox 360 ownership is fine, but the second poll with the Halo 3 preorders is one I would hesitate to put too much stock in. A solid 15 percent are one of the million, great, and then the next set of 24% says they'll buy it when it comes out. That adds to 35% there, which is good, but part of me doubts the sincerity of the 24% who say they will buy it. I voted that option even though I don't even own a 360 yet, and probably won't for a while, but, I'm a chief fan and I do plan on buying it, and it won't have anything to do with the reviews when I do. I'm sure the majority didn't do what I did, but, at the same time, I don't consider my case to be all that special. Also, 14% are waiting just on the reviews? I don't really think we can lump them all into the "going to buy it" category, b/c, frankly, if you're not sold on the Halo series already, is the third entry really going to be the one to sway you in? For whatever reason, and mostly instinct, which is admittedly weak, I can't see Halo 3 reaching the full 50% ownership currently available, despite what the polls say. It's certainly not going to slow MC down, but, it's not as if it's a cakewalk, either.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 10:29:31 PM | message detail
At least 60% seems like a given, but that still doesn't help determine anything between Peach and CATS. I think Sephy needs at least 65% for CATS to stand a chance. He's going to get his usual 12-14% but not much more. The higher Sephy goes, the better CATS looks. If he breaks 70%, I call CATS a lock.

But CATS will provide some entertainment at the very least. CATS might be winning when the poll starts, and I think he'll be leading Peach for a long time either way. We might be seeing Ansem/CATS or Peach/Jill redux.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
therealmnm | Posted 8/16/2007 10:30:04 PM | message detail
and Vivi, because nobody cares about modern Final Fantasy.

You can't be serious...

Well I guess you suppose that Aya Brea is still capable of going toe to toe with DK?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 10:31:03 PM | message detail
CATS: 11%
Meta Knight: 5%
Princess Peach: 14%
Sephiroth: 70%


Hmmm...Meta-Knight only getting 5%? That seems low for anyone, even with Sephiroth here.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 10:31:31 PM | message detail
SC1 is widely considered to be SC's weakest link from a popularity standpoint as well.

Um...no it's not. SC1 >>> SC3.

And just to mention, by putting MGS above MGS2 as far as the Games Contest goes... HOW strong did you think Xenogears was, again?

Almost as strong as FFT.

More importantly... Metal Gear got 70% on Soul Calibur. None of its games are gonna beat even the weakest MGS head-to-head. Not even close.

Sonic got 70% on Devil May Cry. I'm still taking DMC1 over most Sonic games.

The original Soul Calibur probably has the least overlap with MGS2 as well, which helps deal with the SFF factor.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 10:31:48 PM | message detail
You can't be serious...

He isn't. He's taking a shot at BT.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/16/2007 10:32:15 PM | message detail
Seph needs to break 70% there for me to think CATS is winning... and I really think he's capable of it. Right now I have Peach winning, and I'm gonna stick with it, but I really see CATS as a threat.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 10:33:11 PM | message detail
I don't think Seph hits as high as 70%. 60-65% is what I'm guessing right now. Depending on how Meta-Knight and Peach split votes (because I don't see Meta-Knight doing horribly), CATS stands a good chance.
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Moltar Status: Bored and slightly sarcastic.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/16/2007 10:33:27 PM | message detail
Oh, I thought that was sarcasm on me saying that I think those protagonists from Square's "other" series have fallen off since 2k2.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
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