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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 450

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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:47:42 PM | message detail

Hm...

Characters I didn't know:
Arthas (Not a huge WC fan)
Thrall (Ditto)
Frank West (Never heard the name before)
Jade Curtiss (Tales makes me sick)
Nathan Hale (lolps3)
Haseo (Don't care about .hack)

Only one character there who's game I would buy. (Dead Rising, BTW)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:48:05 PM | message detail

Bowser made Ryu look a lot worse compared to how he's supposed to look than Samus hurt Nidoran compared to how she's assumed to look.

And Samus/Nidoran F is a bad comparison as well because you knew Nidoran F was an absolute joke entry. You can't take that match at face value. It's like taking Mario/Servbot at face value.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 3:48:30 PM | message detail

He fell 3% short of Max Payne's score against Vercetti. Yet not being far from Max Payne and having some hardcore fans would ensure getting more than 5% in a poll without any elites.

Oh, I'm not debating that - Max Payne also did significantly better than expected on Vercetti, if you want to press the point in a completely different direction - but I wouldn't take Kite to be on, say, Vyse's level... ever. I think he would easily get 5% in a poll like this.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:48:35 PM | message detail

Leonhart, I think it's a good idea to change your bracket a bunch this time around. First impressions will fail a lot for this contest, since obviously you will not notice all the potential fanbase-splits at first.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 3:49:52 PM | message detail

Leonhart, I think it's a good idea to change your bracket a bunch this time around. First impressions will fail a lot for this contest, since obviously you will not notice all the potential fanbase-splits at first.

Yeah, but that lessens your chances of being on the leaderboard. >_>
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:50:29 PM | message detail

Well, my for-prizes entry may not get leaderboard glory (UNTIL THE END THAT IS!), but I have several alt brackets that won't be changed so I have a chance of getting on early.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 3:54:53 PM | message detail

Tediz247 | Posted 8/16/2007 4:00:23 PM | message detail

LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 4:05:47 PM | message detail

I really wonder how hardcore that his fanbase is. I think Sub-Zero would have a more devoted following. Fighting game fans are a loyal bunch, too.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/16/2007 4:11:15 PM | message detail

Osfan, I love that we share the last three letters of our names and all but really:

Plus Halo 3 won't bring them to this site there are too many more sites that offer more to Halo players then Gamefaqs.

Like what? Every single 10 year old gamer and their dog knows about GFAQs. It's gonna be packed with Halo fans. They may not use the forums, but the front page? Of course.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/16/2007 4:13:32 PM | message detail

Fighting fans are a loyal bunch, true. You get someone's favorite fighter and their favorite character from it, they'll vote them over pretty much anything. Like me and Sub-Zero, or most SF fans and Ryu.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 4:15:32 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/16/2007 4:23:45 PM | message detail

protip: after having 4 wisdom teeth removed, don't immediately crash when you get home before someone picks up the pain killers for you. waking up 4 hours later after all anesthesia has worn off, being completely sober absolutely sucks.

I swear to god I would have rather been operating on my wang so I could at least smoke weed.

I had all my wisdom teeth out at once, and I took no painkillers after the anesthesia wore off. I'd been given painkillers once before, and they made me feel worse than any amount of pain ever could.

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/16/2007 4:26:01 PM | message detail

Not to mention the constipation I had the first time I got painkillers (when I dislocated my knee). That was easily the worst feeling ever *shudder*

TuRtLe
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 4:28:06 PM | message detail

I thought MK had the least dedicated fans out of pretty much any fighting game series.

Here's a match I'm starting to rethink: Agent 47/Kratos Aurion/Midna/Scorpion. Midna winning is obvious, but could Kratos edge out Scorpion? Has ToS dropped in popularity? Is Scorpion weaker than what we last read on him? It's real tough to say...

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 4:29:44 PM | message detail

Last...reliable read, being way back in SC2K3 when he lost against Zero.

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Radix | Posted 8/16/2007 4:34:10 PM | message detail

Here's a match I'm starting to rethink: Agent 47/Kratos Aurion/Midna/Scorpion. Midna winning is obvious, but could Kratos edge out Scorpion? Has ToS dropped in popularity? Is Scorpion weaker than what we last read on him? It's real tough to say...

I personally think all the Tales characters have a shot at winning. It's also possible Midna completely bombs. I'm not sure how close Kratos and Scorp are in the stats (not that Scorp's is reliable), so if they're close it's certainly possible
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/16/2007 4:37:01 PM | message detail

I'm probably going absolutely crazy by even considering this, but I'm seriously considering Gordon Freeman taking second to Sonic instead of Sub-Zero. Gordon does have a pretty hardcore fanbase, enough to look decent against Leon and Sora. I'm really wondering if he'll benefit from the Master Chief effect here.

Hmm...I don't rely on Gordon at all. Hasn't he shown himself to be very untransitive (if that's the word for it >_>) in the past? I know it's a different format so there's a lot of stuff that could change it, but I'm not sure I can take Gordon. Unless Subby was affected by MC's own lack of transitivity to throw his match out of whack, but he did well enough in his follow up match to dispell that for me.

Not forgetting, as Leon said, the fairly hardcore MK fanbase. Fanboys who'll vote for one franchise, series or character over anything else will be absolutely vital to predicting this contest, methinks.
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creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 4:55:08 PM | message detail

Haste2:
Well, nobody knew who Kite was, and Kite got like 35% on Vercetti, almost as good as you'd expect Vyse to do... Oh, and I guarantee Haseo at least breaks 5%...

Hmmm...this is a good point.

Maybe characters from games (especially RPGS?) with niche fanbases who we don't even associate as being that loyal or vocal will perform well in this format?

Here's a match I'm starting to rethink: Agent 47/Kratos Aurion/Midna/Scorpion. Midna winning is obvious, but could Kratos edge out Scorpion? Has ToS dropped in popularity? Is Scorpion weaker than what we last read on him? It's real tough to say...

Really? I didn't think twice about picking Scorpion there, and am wondering about Kratos/Midna. I had Kratos earlier but just changed it...still don't see Midna being stronger than Scorpion though. I think Scorpion/Peach would be close, and don't see how Midna could be that close to Peach.

Osfan:
I really think this topic is getting too serious. I mean realistically none of us have a clue what is going to happen when these polls start. 90% of this site couldn't have predicted what happened in last years final multi-polls and that was with characters where we thought we knew where they stood.

I agree. (well, not the "too serious" part, I'm not sure what that means...but I think people are a lot more overconfident about what's going to happen with this contest than they were in previous ones, where high confidence was often justified)

XIII:
Hmm...I don't rely on Gordon at all. Hasn't he shown himself to be very untransitive (if that's the word for it >_>)

You mean non-linear. I'm not entirely sure how much of Gordon's rep is deserved though...his results largely make sense to me.

Characters who I didn't know:
Arthas (though I realize now I had heard of him before)
Zelos
Wander
Agent J
Bidoof
Mudkip
Pit
Thrall
Amateseru
Frank West
Jade Curtiss
Nathan Hale
Haseo
Ike

Characters who I still don't know:
Wander
Agent J
Mudkip
Pit
Thrall
Frank West
Nathan Hale
Ike
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creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 4:56:23 PM | message detail

I just realized that we're probably going to hit Part 500 this contest. That will be pretty cool.

I find it hard to believe there have been 450 of these things. Mind-boggling.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 5:16:20 PM | message detail

About my expectations for Midna... maybe it's not "obvious", but it is in my eyes. Zelda nor Ganondorf should be the most likeable characters... yet look how strong they are (then there's Link). Plus, Tingle was decent. I'd take Midna over Peach in a close one.

More importantly, I see all Zelda characters doing better in a multi-option poll, due to Zelda fanboyism... a feeling more than anything, really. I have Ganondorf making the finals. (he merely has to beat Sonic to do that, really...)

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"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 5:17:09 PM | message detail

Painkillers are awesome... I've been trying to take as little as possible, so when I'm all healed up I can get myself nice and ****ed up.

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Lady Ashe | Posted 8/16/2007 5:18:31 PM | message detail

Just reached page 4. <_<

*goes to change his second place in the Leon/Pika/Tidus/Vivi fourpack before anyone finds out about it*
~~~
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 5:19:21 PM | message detail

Here's a match I'm starting to rethink: Agent 47/Kratos Aurion/Midna/Scorpion. Midna winning is obvious, but could Kratos edge out Scorpion? Has ToS dropped in popularity? Is Scorpion weaker than what we last read on him? It's real tough to say...

I don't know... all ToS characters have been pathetically weak, and that was when GameFAQs was creaming their pants over ToS. There's no reason in my mind for Kratos to advance.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/16/2007 5:20:49 PM | message detail

The only reason in you really need is the fact that he has hardcore fans.

trannyscience | Posted 8/16/2007 5:21:25 PM | message detail

Kratos didn't do so badly. as well as Kefka, I think?
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Lady Ashe | Posted 8/16/2007 5:24:04 PM | message detail

Wait nevermind I already had Leon > Vivi thank god.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/16/2007 5:25:18 PM | message detail

Kratos is only a slight notch below Kefka, yeah.
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Yesmar | Posted 8/16/2007 5:28:14 PM | message detail

I'm not entirely sure how much of Gordon's rep is deserved though...his results largely make sense to me.

I agree. Gordon had a big increase in 2003, but he had a lot of hype for Half-Life 2 at the time, plus lol 2002 stats. Then he stays roughly the same between 2003 and 2004 and has a huge increase in 2005 once he finally gets a huge new release. His jump in 2006 is kinda wonky, but not so much when you take into account that virtually every single person on the boards was voting for him.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/16/2007 5:29:10 PM | message detail

I think part of Gordon's jump is his picture getting bigger. could be wrong, though.
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 8/16/2007 5:33:30 PM | message detail

Does anyone else have Rikku>Knuckles/Yoshi because there could be some major SFF with Knuckles and Yoshi weakening them? I don't think Vaan is really going to SFF Rikku really at all, he's probably the most hated main character in FFXII, if not any FF heh.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/16/2007 5:35:12 PM | message detail

Guys, what's the chances of Bowser getting first over Auron?
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trannyscience | Posted 8/16/2007 5:36:13 PM | message detail

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37557721
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xexyz

Kratos_42 | Posted 8/16/2007 5:38:09 PM | message detail

Nice, tran.
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__hiei__ | Posted 8/16/2007 6:00:08 PM | message detail

here's my explanation based on logic and stats as to why i put Shadow advancing over Bowser....

first,i used the 2 contests where shadow and knuckles were both in the bracket.checking X stats for those,i saw that shadow was always at least a bit above knuckles.

then i saw a boost for sonic characters in the next years (which shadow was absent).this boost allowed Knuckles to beat magus and get a very close match against vincent.that boost should also apply to Shadow,as far as common sense tells me.

then i check knuckles x stats for last year...he was actualy...ABOVE Bowser.so if i have shadow slightly above knuckles,he should also be above Bowser.

the last step was checking Shadow's and Bowser's performances on multi entrant polls.i checked gamefaqs and some polls at SEGA.Shadow does absolutely great on those.he was "the least "hated" character" on gamefaqs...almost matched sonic himself in the "Most liked" poll.and in the SEGA polls he was completely dominating most of them.

meanwhile,Bowser's record doesn't seen as impressive.using only gamefaqs polls at least.

that was enough for me to bet on this upset.what do you ppl think? does my logic make sense or not? -_-

Tediz247 | Posted 8/16/2007 6:01:33 PM | message detail

then i check knuckles x stats for last year...he was actualy...ABOVE Bowser.so if i have shadow slightly above knuckles,he should also be above Bowser.

Wait... what? Bowser wasn't at his best last year, but Knuckles wasn't even there at all.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/16/2007 6:03:50 PM | message detail

lol x-stats

Sorry, but that's a textbook case >_<
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__hiei__ | Posted 8/16/2007 6:04:15 PM | message detail

er,i mean,last year before that lol

the year knuckles beat magus and stuff.

smitelf | Posted 8/16/2007 6:10:56 PM | message detail

Anyone know where there's a "favorite sonic character" poll? I've looked all the way back to '02 for it and can't find anything, but it's been mentioned in this topic...
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trannyscience | Posted 8/16/2007 6:13:15 PM | message detail

Aprosenf's poll script is always useful.

Poll 581 (07/04/2001)
Who's your favorite Sonic Adventure series character?

272 2.2% Amy
149 1.2% Big
391 3.16% Dr. Robotnik/Eggman
270 2.18% E-102
3820 30.85% Knuckles
164 1.32% Rouge
2427 19.6% Shadow
3115 25.16% Sonic
1774 14.33% Tails

TOTAL VOTES: 12382

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outback | Posted 8/16/2007 6:14:58 PM | message detail

Shadow clearly SFF'd the hell out of Sonic, there. It'd be interesting to see a pre-Shadow poll.
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Samurai7 | Posted 8/16/2007 6:17:19 PM | message detail

I don't really think the 'favorite' and 'least favorite' polls will mean much. Sure it shows how 'dedicated' their fanbase is, but only compared to people that are going to be EXTREME cases of SFF. So Shadow was less hated than AMY. So Yoshi was able to rSFF characters from the same series. These instances don't really hold any water when you take them out of context and place them against people who draw different voter pools.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2007 6:24:24 PM | message detail

Samus, Frog, Midna and Scorpion.

Who gets second?
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smitelf | Posted 8/16/2007 6:24:44 PM | message detail

Thanks tranny! Woah, that's a REALLY old poll...
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__hiei__ | Posted 8/16/2007 6:24:58 PM | message detail

Frog.

trannyscience | Posted 8/16/2007 6:28:54 PM | message detail

yeah, and in my opinion, it's next to worthless. so are a lot of those polls, but six year old poll results with 10,000 votes that aren't even relevant?
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creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 6:32:07 PM | message detail

So Yoshi was able to rSFF characters from the same series. These instances don't really hold any water when you take them out of context and place them against people who draw different voter pools.

I agree. We still keep hearing about that Yoshi favorite character poll, but I think in an actual multi-way match Mario would be the one SFFing Yoshi. (not to mention that poll was ages ago)

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__hiei__ | Posted 8/16/2007 6:33:01 PM | message detail

but these polls show how the sonic fanbase is towards its characters.they're quite small,but they can be used to determine the loyality or the popularity of one character inside his own fanbase.that's useful info

i remember the sega polls too...i can't find them anywhere but there was a poll asking which character would you like to see staring his own game (which Shadow won by a landslide),which is your favorite character in the series (which shadow got second after sonic),which secondary character should make more appearances in future games (which shadow also won...),and lots more which i forgot (there was even one asking about a sonic game with sports on it...)

creativename | Posted 8/16/2007 6:33:57 PM | message detail

Samus, Frog, Midna and Scorpion.

Frog, duh :)

Actually I think Scorpion has a good shot, but I have little faith in Midna. But it's a tough 2nd place to call (like so many others).
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 8/16/2007 6:34:02 PM | message detail

The poll wasn't that long ago:

3/27/2006
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2328
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