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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 450

Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 1:45:21 PM | message detail
Your Zero cinderella run is far more reasonable than that ridiculous fourpack.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/16/2007 1:45:29 PM | message detail
Zero has no chance to make it past round 3. Even if Vincent and Crono SFF each other to death, Zero has to face Link, and we all know how well Mega Man held up against him.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 1:54:31 PM | message detail
The logic there would be that Zero's fanbase is much more hardcore than Mega Man's, as evidence by Zero rSFFing MM in 2k4. He's also a huge fan favorite, which should help him hold up.

Furthermore, none of his strength comes from the NES, and all of Zero's playable appearances came from the PS1 onwards. He's not going to be SFF'd nearly as much as MM was.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/16/2007 2:01:05 PM | message detail
And the counter-argument of that is Luigi beat Zero.

But I have faith in him, and have a feeling this format will limit any damage Link can do to him. True he has to perform like he did back in 2k3 to take advantage of the Vincent/Crono split, but I have a feeling that if anyone can pull it off, it's Zero.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
hochiminh155 | Posted 8/16/2007 2:02:24 PM | message detail
You know, Yuna beats out MC in Round 1. Vercetti will take away casual support.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 2:14:00 PM | message detail
You know, Vercetti won't get any support at all in round one, because he has no hardcore fans.
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KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 8/16/2007 2:15:15 PM | message detail
Vercetti is a character who has NO staying power. Every year, he gets a little older and lot less relevant. I was surprised he even made it, even with 128 characters.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/16/2007 2:32:57 PM | message detail
I'll agree with that. I can see Vercetti doing VERY poorly there and having little to no effect on MC. The trick there is does MC have the power to take down Yuna before Halo 3 comes out?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 2:38:04 PM | message detail
Hey, Tommy Vercetti is in this contest and Carl Johnson isn't.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/16/2007 2:52:27 PM | message detail
Think I'm going to sign up this year for guru...
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 2:54:10 PM | message detail
About KOS-MOS...what was I smoking... I forgot that KOS-MOS beating one of Yoshi or Knuckles would bring her in THIRD place... not second place (apparently I forgot Mega Man existed)... so she still wouldn't go on...

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 2:55:08 PM | message detail
For that matter, Akuma beating out Aeris is a trillion times more likely than KOS-MOS beating out Knuckles AND Yoshi. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/16/2007 2:59:56 PM | message detail
No after school vote for Riku and Roxas. =o
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swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 3:00:58 PM | message detail
Speaking of Riku and Roxas, would Roxas steal enough Riku votes to put Ryu H in first? Would Riku just SFF Roxas to hell? Or would they both be so strong that Ryu H would be left cold.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 3:02:47 PM | message detail
And I don't recall anybody supporting me after Snake/Mega Man and before Sonic/Snake. It was just page after page of KH calling me a moron, then completely avoiding the subject when I was proven right.

You were never "proven right", especially to me - not that you've paid any attention to ANYTHING I've posted since then, apparently. Mega Man was not equal to Sonic in 2006. I still stand by any detracting comments I've made (and will make in the future!).

And of course, I was probably one of the biggest Peach insulters during 2k6. I took her to crush Jill Ulti-style, IIRC - and she fell flat on her face. That's her most humilating match of the contest to me.
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KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 8/16/2007 3:03:11 PM | message detail
I wish the third option was the case, but Roxas doesn't stand a chance of advancing. Riku will be hurt a little bit, but not enough for Hayabusa to leapfrog him.

I'd be more worried about what Snake will do to Riku in the next round.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 3:03:51 PM | message detail
Snake is only going to humiliate Riku if Riku poses as a guard.
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ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 3:18:16 PM | message detail
The trick there is does MC have the power to take down Yuna before Halo 3 comes out?

I'm a little unconvinced of what Yuna's going to be able to do in these polls. All those multi-option polls she's in are really unimpressive, although that may not be giving her enough due credit due to other FF characters being there. Still, I'm not buying that her strength from last year was indicative of her strength. Not getting me to believe she does anything but get rocked by Ganon if you hold that match again today.

I think Master Chief can take that one pretty easy. Halo 3 won't be out by then, but it'll be out a few days later. He probably doesn't even need it to win that, but the hype for the game will be at its peak at that point. Close enough to being "out" without being "out."

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 3:21:23 PM | message detail
Like Twilight Princess!

*cries*
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Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:22:04 PM | message detail
Hayabusa taking first place from Riku..,. actually seems pretty reasonable to me. I don't think Riku would get that much SFF on Roxas, though they'd split the vote.

Before SFF and such, I'd expect something like:
Haseo - 13%
Riku - 35%
Roxas - 25%
Hayabusa - 27%

Hypothetical real result:
Haseo - 15%
Riku - 30%
Roxas - 20%
Hayabusa - 35%

This honestly goes pretty easy on the KH fanbase split, if you ask me. They would probably lose more than 10% total.

Give Riku some extra SFF:
Haseo - 15%
Riku - 34%
Roxas - 16%
Hayabusa - 35%

Again, the KH fanbase-split (loss) would probably be even larger.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 3:22:29 PM | message detail
8.8 ohmygod no they didnt

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trannyscience | Posted 8/16/2007 3:23:24 PM | message detail
I will eat my elbow if Haseo gets 15%.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 3:27:14 PM | message detail
Haseo - 15%
Riku - 34%
Roxas - 16%
Hayabusa - 35%


Riku and Roxas will add up to a lot more than 50% in this 4-pack.
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ZFS | Posted 8/16/2007 3:27:46 PM | message detail
If Haseo even gets more than 5%...

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/16/2007 3:28:09 PM | message detail
Haseo at 15%. I'd be surprised if 15% of the voters even know who the hell he is let alone like him enough to vote for him >_>
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/16/2007 3:32:38 PM | message detail
I have no clue who Haseo is, and that's saying something (only Amaratsu and Agent J can share that honour)

Haseo would be lucky to break 5%

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:33:42 PM | message detail
Haseo getting 15%?

...But man, I'd forgotten how weird percentages in these fourpacks will be. I think you're giving me false hope for Roxas to sneak through somehow.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2007 3:33:46 PM | message detail
I knew who everyone was except Haseo. And when I don't know a character thats really bad. I'll be stunned if he gets over 5%.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:33:56 PM | message detail
I can see Haseo getting 15%... If it was one on one!
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 3:35:06 PM | message detail
I know who Haseo is!

...well, only because I watched the .hack//ROOTS anime, but still!
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:35:27 PM | message detail
I actually knew Haseo (comes with being a .hack fan), but the only characters in the bracket I didn't know were Frank West and Nathan Hale (neo-Tanner).
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 3:36:50 PM | message detail
Nathan Hale and Agent J were the only ones I didn't know.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:37:13 PM | message detail
Well, nobody knew who Kite was, and Kite got like 35% on Vercetti, almost as good as you'd expect Vyse to do... Oh, and I guarantee Haseo at least breaks 5%...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 3:40:02 PM | message detail
Vercetti was an ideal opponent for Kite. Just like Halo, GTA and its characters *definitely* fall prey to anti-votes.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:40:32 PM | message detail
You know, originally Auron/Bowser/Ryu/Shadow seemed like a dream match at first glance and seemed pretty clear cut upon thinking about it.

However, upon doing some research, that fourpack is suddenly looking very wide open. I'm almost positive Auron advances, but the other three have legit shots for that other place, I think.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 3:41:05 PM | message detail
You've really got to stop bringing this up because it makes no sense to think that Bowser is some sort of poison for Ryu. Sure, he beat him down pretty handily in 2005, but it wasn't a BLOWOUT (by non-Ulti standards).

Turning a 50/50 match according to previous and future stats into a 60/40 whipping leads me to believe Bowser is some kind of poison to Ryu...unless you would like to say Mario isn't a poison to Samus. If a Bowser/Ryu rematch were to happen, how would you expect it to go?


I personally think it's ridiculous that you keep talking about Bowser hurting Ryu more than Mewtwo or Toad despite both being Nintendo and him not.

Bowser keep Toad out of contention completely. Mewtwo ensures it.


There is NO way Bowser hurts Ryu more than Mewtwo or Toad.

Bowser hurt Ryu more than Samus hurt Nidoran.


Heck, you're a huge lover of the SSB having a serious effect on strength theory, and guess who's in SSBM with Bowser? MEWTWO! And guess what, Mewtwo sucks in the game! No tier advantage!

Totally irrelevant to my case, I wasn't planning on bringing up SSBM because of this.


And Bowser getting hindered to the point that Ryu takes first is much more likely than Bowser hindering Ryu to the point that Mewtwo takes second.

It's possible, I'm still debating it with myself.


You've seen Ryu get a cool 30% in that Favorite SF Character poll, and his fans seem to be pretty dedicated to him.

Mewtwo would get 30% against most Pokemon in a poll, and we've seen Pokemon hold up better in Nintendo-polls than SF has in Capcom-polls. Pokemon is more relevant to GameFAQs today and is arguably a stronger force than SF as well. Not that Mewtwo would beat Ryu, but I don't see him budging much. Bowser isn't going to hurt Mewtwo much at all -- those two will cost Toad dignity before anything else. I just don't think Mewtwo should be getting overlooked when we've seen how sturdy Pokemon is here and Mewtwo is going to be its most respectable rep.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:41:14 PM | message detail
Hey, I know I voted for Kite, and I didn't have a CLUE who he was!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 3:41:31 PM | message detail
I want to post percentages for a couple of the more interesting fourpacks and see what people think...

Auron: 27%
Bowser: 30%
Ryu: 18%
Shadow: 25%

Cloud: 60%
Kefka: 13%
Marcus: 17%
Jill: 10%

Samus: 34%
Mega Man: 28%
Knuckles: 20%
Midna: 18%
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Osfan | Posted 8/16/2007 3:41:49 PM | message detail
I really think this topic is getting too serious. I mean realistically none of us have a clue what is going to happen when these polls start. 90% of this site couldn't have predicted what happened in last years final multi-polls and that was with characters where we thought we knew where they stood. Truth be told we can all only imagine what is in store for the upcoming contest which makes it have the potential to be one of the best we have had in a while. I Just dont think we need to be pulling out the troll card in this topic save it for elsewhere i mean this contest is designed for the outrageous so it is bound to happen in at least one match. Otherwise feel free to argue away!

As for the current discussions I can't see Ryu H pulling first in his bracket because I think Riku is gonna SFF Roxas badly. As for the Yuna Master Cheif debacle I think the Cheif is gonna show us just what he is made of in the Div Final. I expect the usual choke job. Sure he should be able to take Yuna and a weak Gdorf because of Luigi stealing fanbase but its the Master Cheif... Plus Halo 3 won't bring them to this site there are too many more sites that offer more to Halo players then Gamefaqs.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:42:27 PM | message detail
Bowser hurt Ryu more than Samus hurt Nidoran.

18% > 42%?

Uhhhh...

And comparing Bowser/Ryu to Mario/Samus is a TERRIBLE example.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 3:43:09 PM | message detail
I'm taking Auron-Shadow in that one.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/16/2007 3:43:21 PM | message detail
Kite is like a million times more popular than Haseo. I think. I always knew who Kite was.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:44:11 PM | message detail
Vercetti was an ideal opponent for Kite. Just like Halo, GTA and its characters *definitely* fall prey to anti-votes.

He fell 3% short of Max Payne's score against Vercetti. Yet not being far from Max Payne and having some hardcore fans would ensure getting more than 5% in a poll without any elites.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 3:44:14 PM | message detail
*jumps on the HaR train*
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/16/2007 3:44:30 PM | message detail
Oh, and for a blowout poll...

CATS: 11%
Meta Knight: 5%
Princess Peach: 14%
Sephiroth: 70%
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:44:41 PM | message detail
You know for a bracket with 128 characters you'd expect there to be more than 35 new characters, we have...

Vaan
Arthas
Midna
Marcus Fenix
Zelos
Midgar Zolom
Chris Redfield
Mewtwo
Toad
Meta Knight
Banjo
Wander
Agent J
Bidoof
Miles Edgeworth
Mudkip
Pit
Thrall
Amaterasu
Matt
Balthier
Frank West
Jade Curtiss
Serge
L-Block
Nathan Hale
Marth
Prince of All Cosmos
Nightmare
Rayman
Haseo
Roxas
Akuma
Daxter
Ike

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 3:45:10 PM | message detail
18% > 42%?

Way to take what I said and flip it like I'm stupid. Bowser made Ryu look a lot worse compared to how he's supposed to look than Samus hurt Nidoran compared to how she's assumed to look.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/16/2007 3:45:31 PM | message detail
How would Midgar Zolom do if he wasn't with Cloud?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2007 3:45:46 PM | message detail
The only way Bowser/Ryu is even in the same realm as Mario/Samus is if you believe Bowser pulled some sort of "era-SFF" on Ryu... but if that were the case, Mega Man - who very, VERY obviously SFFed Yoshi - should have done the exact same thing to Ryu. A random overperformance is one thing, but by that same token you shouldn't expect it to happen again unless it's something that only happens when Bowser meets Ryu (or something to that effect).
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2007 3:46:39 PM | message detail
I've been doing percentages for my own analyses, and trying to do that is a total crapshoot. I can't really disagree with anything other than your ordering because I have no idea what to expect.

...I think I did convince myself to take Ryu > Bowser in the first round because of that though, but I always hate changing my bracket.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
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