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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 450

consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 1:36:36 AM | message detail
Yeah I'm now at Alucard > Ness.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Gaddswell | Posted 8/16/2007 1:39:59 AM | message detail
In rounds 3 and 4, who would Yoshi and Bowser siphon more votes from: Samus or Mega Man? Who makes it through with Cloud?
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consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 1:45:35 AM | message detail
Balthier, on the other hand, I have doing very well in this contest. He'll easily make it to the Final Rounds, he'll be stronger than Yuna, but he'll get killed in the semifinals.

Hell no. Just no. You have Balthier passing his 3rd 4-pack? It's got Leon, Dante and another Square character (Tidus/Vivi). Dante is almost at Squall's level (way stronger than Balthier will ever be, surely you can agree with this) and Leon got 45% on Bowser. As if that wasn't enough, there will be a Square character sucking away votes from Balthier. How can you possibly have him getting past those barriers?
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Lopen | Posted 8/16/2007 1:48:58 AM | message detail
So people are seriously throwing around CATS to advance past the first round now?

... you heard it here first, gentlemen !!

Okay, maybe not... but I've been calling for it since I've seen the bracket! I saw that match and immediately thought "CATS constant 15% will win him this." Indeed, I'm seriously considering putting him through even round 2. Wario doesn't scare me, I don't think he has a very devoted fanbase, with Sephiroth sweeping it out from under him... though Fox I think can stand up to it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 1:50:12 AM | message detail
...people have Bowser going that far? I shouldn't be surprised, but I took Auron and Shadow to advance past Bowser and Mewtwo/Ryu without thinking. Bowser's got a shot, but against fan-favorites like Auron and Shadow while Bowser -- although second in command of the Mario fanbase strength-wise -- isn't many people's favorite, I don't have high hopes for him (especially if Mewtwo made it in too)...plus we saw what Shadow did against Mario and Wario BEFORE Shadow got his own game, regardless of what happened in those matches. Bowser won't get any favors if that same variable comes back into play.

I feel confident with Auron and Shadow advancing past Bowser.
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Lopen | Posted 8/16/2007 1:54:57 AM | message detail
I've actually got Ryu going far. Really far. And I think it'll be Ryu who ends up sabotaging Bowser's chances. Ryu never falling below 40% in any match really speaks deeply to me as to his potential to do well in these four way matches. Give me Ryu's fanbase as more devoted than Auron's or Shadow's... though I think Auron's has only a slight devotion disadvantage and a huge numbers advantage, which will be enough to give him the edge over Ryu.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 1:56:57 AM | message detail
...people have Bowser going that far? I shouldn't be surprised, but I took Auron and Shadow to advance past Bowser and Mewtwo/Ryu without thinking. Bowser's got a shot, but against fan-favorites like Auron and Shadow while Bowser -- although second in command of the Mario fanbase strength-wise -- isn't many people's favorite, I don't have high hopes for him (especially if Mewtwo made it in too)...plus we saw what Shadow did against Mario and Wario BEFORE Shadow got his own game, regardless of what happened in those matches. Bowser won't get any favors if that same variable comes back into play.

I feel confident with Auron and Shadow advancing past Bowser.


Doubtful. Bowser will have no one from his series or even his company drawing away votes. Mewtwo is eliminated in the first round (unless you don't let Ryu advance?). So it's Auron/Bowser/Shadow/Ryu. Auron/Bowser there for me.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 1:59:52 AM | message detail
Leon- 40%
Vivi- 20%
Teedus- 15%
Pikachu- 25%

TuRtLe


Vivi and Tidus adding up to 35%? You cannot possibly be serious.

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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Guess how many teens | Posted 8/16/2007 2:21:21 AM | message detail
Thrall or Luigi to the third round? I'd say Luigi but won't Ganondorf steal some votes of luigi?
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/16/2007 2:32:25 AM | message detail
I dont think he's serious based on the fact he has Vivi outSSFing Tidus
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Hi
consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 4:34:25 AM | message detail
Thrall or Luigi to the third round? I'd say Luigi but won't Ganondorf steal some votes of luigi?

Luigi. He's just so much stronger. Yeah he'll have to split votes, but it won't be enough.

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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/16/2007 4:59:49 AM | message detail
I'm still going to try and not use too many x-stats. that villains poll really uses your gut on who has hardcore fans or not, and we have almost no measure on all of these characters when it comes to that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/16/2007 5:04:13 AM | message detail
okay, I'm really considering Kratos Aurion > Scorpion. I don't really know why. lone RPG and my guts just tell me hardcore fanbases are going to really surprise us.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 5:11:59 AM | message detail
^ Maybe if Midna was Link or someone else who draws a crapload of votes. The way it is, Scorpion's general advantage in popularity should give him the advantage.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Ayvuir | Posted 8/16/2007 5:12:06 AM | message detail
Who is Thrall?!

And why will he advance?

Also do people have Midna going through or is that just me?
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Ayvuir | Posted 8/16/2007 5:18:03 AM | message detail
Am I nuts for having Matt the Mii and L-Block advancing?

Matt could be fodder of the weakest kind but he's against such weak opponents (who's Amaterasu? I search for that and didn't see anything video game related), however I think L-block could well be stronger than Laharl. Is that dumb?


L-block is gonna be shock run of the contest IMO, i reckon 2 rounds at least. Same with perhaps Matt.
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A good pokemon... is a dead pokemon - SBell0105
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/16/2007 5:21:51 AM | message detail
Just one random thought: The loser between Solid Snake and Sonic (Which will most likely be Sonic) can lose two rounds in a row to the same character yet he makes it to the final match. Is this really fair?
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consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 7:44:03 AM | message detail
^ It is not. And it's at the expense of Sephiroth, which makes it all the worse. Then again, having Sephiroth in the final round would completely eliminate what little chance Cloud has of defeating Link.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Acronym | Posted 8/16/2007 7:51:31 AM | message detail
I'd like to see a wild card in this contest - say in each division final, the character who got the most votes in losing is included in the poll.
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Radix | Posted 8/16/2007 8:11:02 AM | message detail
From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 8/16/2007 8:04:13 AM | #263
okay, I'm really considering Kratos Aurion > Scorpion. I don't really know why. lone RPG and my guts just tell me hardcore fanbases are going to really surprise us.

Kratos A, Lloyd and (in my mind at least) Jade all have good chances of winning because of that hardcore fanbase reason
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:23:11 AM | message detail
God keeping up with these topics is killing me.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/16/2007 9:29:18 AM | message detail
CATS > Peach wouldn't be a bad upset pick at all if there were another Nintendo character in that poll that could really syphon votes from Peach. I don't think 15% will be enough for CATS to get through.

~*ST*~
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2007 9:33:53 AM | message detail
I'm expecting Sephiroth to take about 50% of the vote so I don't see CATS with much of a chance, but if he pushes upwards to 60% CATS may steal the win.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:40:21 AM | message detail
Why does everyone continue to argue with BT for pages on end? He's either stupid or a troll, and there's no sense in arguing with someone who is either.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/16/2007 9:43:36 AM | message detail
Well, I'm here for a good time, and arguing with BT often provides just that.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/16/2007 9:45:01 AM | message detail
Also, I'm expecting Sephiroth to easily approach 60% of the vote. Watching him flounder around the 50% mark would practically shock me; his competition is too weak for a contest like this.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:57:15 AM | message detail
The more time that passes, the more secure I'm getting in my bracket and picks, but the one match that's really screwing with me now is definitely Auron/Bowser/Ryu/Shadow. Ryu seems like an MC of sorts at least as far as having a dedicated fanbase goes, because I really don't see any large chunk of anti-votes coming his way for any reason, but I just can't get that match with Bowser out of my head. Right now I have Auron > Bowser, but I really starting to consider Auron > Ryu, and then Cloud > Ryu for the next round. The guy just flat out refuses to get owned, even when he's up against someone who should most definitely be taking him out back with a shotgun.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/16/2007 9:59:25 AM | message detail
Hell no. Just no. You have Balthier passing his 3rd 4-pack? It's got Leon, Dante and another Square character (Tidus/Vivi). Dante is almost at Squall's level (way stronger than Balthier will ever be, surely you can agree with this) and Leon got 45% on Bowser. As if that wasn't enough, there will be a Square character sucking away votes from Balthier. How can you possibly have him getting past those barriers?

I'm predicting Balthier and Vivi or Tidus to suck away pretty much the majority of the votes, with Balthier being more popular than either of them. Dante is going to be laughably behind the other three and if Leon's there he'll probably be beaten by both of the Square characters.

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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 9:59:45 AM | message detail
...and now that I have Ryu going on > Auron, can he once again move on with Cloud, over MM and Samus beating each other up in the quarterfinals? God damn this is crazy.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/16/2007 10:04:42 AM | message detail
Auron and Bowser will crush Ryu.

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~Straight Outta PotD~
Topic Protector | Posted 8/16/2007 10:06:30 AM | message detail
Ryu and Akuma both have perfect opportunities right now to do surprise us. I'm looking forward to at least one of them breaking several brackets.

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BDawg | Posted 8/16/2007 10:09:16 AM | message detail
Ryu would look a lot better if Bowser/Ryu didn't happen and Bowser wasn't sitting right there in front of him.
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Should I start running now?
consolefreak | Posted 8/16/2007 10:11:24 AM | message detail
I'm predicting Balthier and Vivi or Tidus to suck away pretty much the majority of the votes, with Balthier being more popular than either of them. Dante is going to be laughably behind the other three and if Leon's there he'll probably be beaten by both of the Square characters.

The problem with this is that in 1 on 1 matches, the 2 strongest character from that 4-pack are Dante and Leon (don't underestimate Dante man, he's no pushover). Balthier and Tidus getting more than 50% of the vote combined would be very surprising, to say the least.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
therealmnm | Posted 8/16/2007 10:12:09 AM | message detail
I don't really care about my bracket really. I just want to see the contest. I'm not going to stress about my picks. I'm going with my gut and rooting for my favorites. Seeing how this contest pans out is far more interesting than whether I'm right or wrong at this point.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Silk | Posted 8/16/2007 10:14:04 AM | message detail
Quick question to anybody, who do you have as the two finalists in Division 2 (one of them is Cloud of course) and Division 6?

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swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 10:15:10 AM | message detail
Cloud/Bowser and Dante/Leon, so not confident in that last one.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 10:16:29 AM | message detail
Well, Bowser/Ryu was a 60-40 match, and Bowser has to deal with Mewtwo and Toad getting some of his votes. Ryu definitely has a good shot at #1 there.

This is actually starting to get me to think about Round 2 though. I still don't think Auron has too much of a problem taking first, but I can see Bowser, Shadow or Ryu ending up taking 2nd.
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Moltar Status: Hyped through the roof!
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Silk | Posted 8/16/2007 10:20:59 AM | message detail
Cloud/Bowser and Dante/Leon, so not confident in that last one.

I have Cloud/Bowser as well going on the fact that Auron is in the final four in that division but Cloud will most likely take up all the Final Fantasy votes, so I agree with you there.

Division six is also where I had my greatest doubts, I'm guessing Dante and Leon will both be in the final four for there division with two Square characters (Tidus/Balthier/Vivi), which would split the Final Fanasy vote, but even then, would it be enough and it's still hard to tell whether Dante or Leon would get more votes than the other...DAMN YOU DIVISION SIX!

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 10:23:12 AM | message detail
I think I'm going to take Shadow to advance with Auron past Bowser and Ryu. He's done well in the old Sonic-polls (20% in most-liked, 5% in least-liked), he blew Wario out and got 45% on Mario, and he went toe-to-toe against Tidus...all this before he got his own game. I have no qualms with him holding up well against Auron and Bowser (Bowser not doing well in the Mario-polls helps a little too), and if Ryu is affected at all by Bowser again, that's a golden opportunity for Shadow fight Bowser to move on. If Mewtwo sneaks past Ryu, then that'll certainly kill Bowser's chances to advance past Shadow as well.

I don't see this format favoring Bowser much, is all. He's not many people's favorite in general or even in his own series, and he's being put in matches against other fan-favorites. Auron (FFX), Shadow (Sonic), Ryu (SF), Mewtwo (Pokemon), and even Toad (Mario Kart!) all have that advantage over him. Bowser's still as strong as any of them save for Auron, but it'll be interesting to see if Bowser holds up well against his competition.
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Silk | Posted 8/16/2007 10:26:27 AM | message detail
I have Ryu > Bowser at first with all of the other Nintendo characters present, but after that, Bowser has no one in his games or even related to his character, and I'm just going to go out on a limb and guess Nintendo fans are going to vote for him out of lack of anybody else, giving him the majority of the Nintendo vote. I'm still so confoosed'd.

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Playing the hand I was dealt.
Noiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 10:29:15 AM | message detail
I don't really care about my bracket really. I just want to see the contest. I'm not going to stress about my picks. I'm going with my gut and rooting for my favorites

I pretty much agree. I just want to see a few killer upsets mainly.
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voltch | Posted 8/16/2007 10:30:33 AM | message detail
how well did leon kennedy do again last year?
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/16/2007 10:36:23 AM | message detail
I thought about Mario/Shadow as well. Even if you don't buy the result, you still have to admit that Shadow got a lot of support in that match over Mario. Now he's up against the #3/4 Mario character.

MAN I want to switch to Shadow so bad. I probably will too, seeing as how I really don't care if my predictions bomb this contest.
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Moltar Status: Hyped through the roof!
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/16/2007 10:39:14 AM | message detail
Ryu would look a lot better if Bowser/Ryu didn't happen and Bowser wasn't sitting right there in front of him.

Thing is, Ryu looked like he bounced back last year, while Bowser took a step in the opposite direction. Throw in Ryu's ability to always get a large following, regardless of the competition, and I think he can squeeze out a victory.

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2007 10:44:31 AM | message detail
I think Ryu bounced back because he had an anomaly caused by Bowser, and Bowser bounced down because he was completely over-rated by Solid ****. I think they're not far from being equals strength-wise, and I believe the numbers back me up on this from last year...but I'd have to double-check.

Ryu's shown he has a core fanbase by getting 35% in the SF-series poll, though SF's significance is slowly dwindling here (hasn't bothered Ryu yet!). He's shown he can get 40% on Bowser before so how much worse can two other Nintendo characters hurt him?


Man, a good case can be made for lots of people in lots of matches.
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voltch | Posted 8/16/2007 10:44:44 AM | message detail
auron/shadow/bowser/ryu will murder a few brackets methinks.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 10:45:46 AM | message detail
Bowser (2006c) VS Ryu (2006c)

Bowser has a strength of 32.44.
Ryu has a strength of 32.24.

Bowser wins with 50.31% of the vote!
A win of 739 with 119,887 total votes cast.


Yeah, 2006 implies near-equality.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/16/2007 10:47:08 AM | message detail
Me, I'm looking for a big upset by Simon. Last contest, Castlevania got a huge upset which pulled it out for me, I'm betting on the same horse this time around, too.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/16/2007 10:58:20 AM | message detail
I really wish there was a way to measure Vaan and Balthier's strength besides dumb "favorite FF?" and "game of the year omg" polls V_V
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swirIdude | Posted 8/16/2007 10:59:36 AM | message detail
All I need to know about Vaan is "same series as Rikku" meaning "no worrying about not picking Rikku"
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