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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 450

Big Bob | Posted 8/15/2007 9:46:34 PM | message detail
I'm the resident poke-nut in the stats topic, and even I'm not spouting crap about him making round 3.

And I'm sure everybody's glad they missed my 'OMFG WHERES JIGGLYPUFF" explosion. Send all thank-you cards to Luis_Sera89.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:47:35 PM | message detail
You've essentially taken Leon to double Vivi. Even if Vivi has significantly SFF'd Tidus in your example, you've taken Leon to beat the hell out of Vivi with relative ease. You've also taken Leon to get more than 55% of the vote in a threeway match against Vivi and Tidus. Are you starting to realize how ridiculous this is?
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transience | Posted 8/15/2007 9:48:58 PM | message detail
Can Laharl beat a Tetris block and a PS3 exclusive character?

this might be the quote of the topic.

For Pikachu to advance, he just needs to be at Peach's level or so, and have Vivi/Teedusj split the vote giving Leon/Pika the win.

hmm... it's close.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:49:54 PM | message detail
Think about it. Vivi and Tidus are nearly equal in 2k5, and Leon is a little above both. What I'm seeing here is Leon = Vivi+Tidus, which is essentially one or the other in a 1v1 match.

TuRtLe
~~~
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 9:50:27 PM | message detail
Leon- 40%
Vivi- 20%
Teedus- 15%
Pikachu- 25%


Is this the culmination of the craziness? I think it is!

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Believe
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 9:50:52 PM | message detail
What I'm seeing here is Leon = Vivi+Tidus, which is essentially one or the other in a 1v1 match.

No. It's not. Two people are always stronger than just one of the two, regardless of the pairing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:52:08 PM | message detail
Even if Pikachu doesn't outright win that, it will be alot closer than any of you seem to be giving him credit for. This isn't 2002, and all the people who anti-voted him then are now either indifferent, or going to be struck by nostalgia. That and Nintendo's latent strength means this isn't THAT unlikely of an upset.

Not only that, but Tidus and Vivi are now 2 years older than in their last legitmate contest appearance, and neither are really timeless characters.

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:53:27 PM | message detail
Vivi/Tidus could split more evenly with Pikachu being closer to them, but I'm making my stand on this one, and the stats topic won't be changing my mind here.

TuRtLe
~~~
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:54:00 PM | message detail
and all the people who anti-voted him then are now either indifferent, or going to be struck by nostalgia.

If I had the combined wit of Amazing Telephone and Aeon Azuran, I might be able to respond to this. Maybe.
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Pikachu Fanboy | Posted 8/15/2007 9:54:12 PM | message detail
Pikachu in round 3 really is kind of pushing it...
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Pika. Pika Pika!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 9:54:12 PM | message detail
This isn't 2002, and all the people who anti-voted him then are now either indifferent

In which case they won't be voting for Pikachu. Indifference is no help.

or going to be struck by nostalgia.

Yes.

NOSTALGIC HATRED!
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:54:54 PM | message detail
Vivi's black mage image easily makes him timeless in a contest setting, which is why I think he SFFs Tidus and walks all over Pikachu into second place.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 9:55:01 PM | message detail
and all the people who anti-voted him then are now either indifferent, or going to be struck by nostalgia.

I want to know how you came to this conclusion. Where have you seen anything except dislike for Pikachu? He's got no following. This isn't Mewtwo; he's not badass, he's doesn't look cool, and he's ... it's Pikachu, man.

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Believe
Evil_REmade | Posted 8/15/2007 9:56:15 PM | message detail
So.....why are we all paying attention to BT and his crazy decisions again? >_>
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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 9:57:11 PM | message detail
Balthier isn't even the star of a game that's on par with FF9 in popularity.

Oh, Balthier IS the star of FFXII, my friend. He's the Auron of the game, meaning he doesn't technically need to be the "main character" to be by far the most popular. Hold a Favorite FFXII Character Poll and Balthier wins in a walk.

I've always said 8 was more popular, but people never listened.

...No one ever said that FFIX was more popular than FFVIII. That was never in question. You looking for any excuse to make yourself sound smart is, in effect, making you look stupider than you ever have before.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:57:27 PM | message detail
cuz it's fun and I'm trying to draw out Lucky Star as much as possible.
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Gaddswell | Posted 8/15/2007 9:57:39 PM | message detail
It's nice to see all this Pika talk. >_<
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Finally a damn bracket!
transience | Posted 8/15/2007 9:57:56 PM | message detail
Evil_REmade | Posted 8/16/2007 12:56:15 AM | message detail | #164
So.....why are we all paying attention to BT and his crazy decisions again? >_>


question of the topic right here. I just re-enabled my block list! I haven't had this thing on since the Battle Royale.

ahh, contest season. some traditions never die!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 10:00:33 PM | message detail
Anyone think Leon's going to get a pretty big fraction of the Nintendo vote? RE4 does get the majority of its strength from the GCN and Wii, and it did dominate the GotY polls for 2k5.
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redrocket | Posted 8/15/2007 10:12:42 PM | message detail
Anyone think Leon's going to get a pretty big fraction of the Nintendo vote? RE4 does get the majority of its strength from the GCN and Wii, and it did dominate the GotY polls for 2k5.

So true. VIvi/Tidus SFF? Moar like Leon/Pikachu SFF! Pikachu might end up being lucky to break 10%.
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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 10:20:39 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I was scanning old polls looking for something interesting, and believe it or not, I found something intriguing in the VILLAINS CONTEST!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2020

For one thing, here's a multioption poll with Sephiroth and CATS. CATS gets his usual 12%. Here's an instance where you see someone beating a character in a multiway poll who beat them straight up ( CATS > Kefka >> Diablo here). This is the closest thing we've got to this contest without referring to the elites of the Battle Royale. It's certainly worth thinking over. And Ganondorf doing so well here is interesting for his division.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:24:34 PM | message detail
CATS puts up 12% in a 5-way poll featuring Sephiroth and Ganondorf, yet people were discussing Meta Knight earlier today. Weird bunch.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:28:12 PM | message detail
That's an awful lot of discussion just over Pikachu's chances... my opinion for Pikachu having little chance is this: Vivi and Tidus would probably come close to doubling Pikachu. So, in order for Pikachu to beat them, Vivi and Tidus almost literally have to cut each other's votes in half. That's not gonna come close to happening.

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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 10:29:48 PM | message detail
Yeah. Seeing that poll made me feel better about picking CATS to make it to the second round.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:30:43 PM | message detail
Same here. Good find, Mr. THE.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:31:40 PM | message detail
Isaac gets the Nintendo vote before the rat that nobody likes.

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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 10:34:13 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=841

Also, I don't really know what this one is worth. It IS pre-FFX-2, after all.

But you see Rikku edging out Tidus, Yuna bombing, and Auron owning everything.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:35:41 PM | message detail
That poll is 6 years old and only has 20000 votes.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 10:36:05 PM | message detail
Hah. I just noticed this one.

January 07 -- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2646
July 07 -- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2812

Halo 3 got 19.1% in January 07 and 19.4% in July 07. Hardcore fanbase at work right there -- the others are all over the place.

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Believe
THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 10:38:30 PM | message detail
Look at MGS4's improvement! MGS boost across the board confirmed!
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Evil_REmade | Posted 8/15/2007 10:40:02 PM | message detail
I don't know. I'm really liking GTA IV's percentage in the second poll, though.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:41:38 PM | message detail
So about 20% of the voters are hardcore Halo fans. That means MC is guarantted 20% in every match. Also, lol at DMC4's percent. So much for Dante beating Leon

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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:43:56 PM | message detail
Dante is much more popular than his games.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:45:00 PM | message detail
You know, Yuna beats out MC in Round 1. Vercetti will take away casual support.

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Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:45:54 PM | message detail
Dante, and his games, are unpopular and surprisingly still overrated by a few in these contests.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:49:14 PM | message detail
Also, lol at DMC4's percent. So much for Dante beating Leon

Dante as a character is far stronger, however.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 10:57:56 PM | message detail
The most notable thing in that poll is Kefka beating Diablo, IMO. Despite Sephiorth being there, Kefka still manages to do far better than he did in the direct poll between the two. I'd say that casual games are going to suffer pretty heavily in this format, and suddenly I'm feeling pretty bad about Marcus > Kefka...
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 11:00:42 PM | message detail
I'm feeling worse about having Diablo move on to the second round. Thinking I'm going to have to fix that one.

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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 11:07:54 PM | message detail
I was just discussing this with HM and transience on AIM, but we were thinking about this whole format: How much will things change depending on how the percentages of the matches go? Like, for me, in the Snake/Vyse/Nightmare/Rayman match, despite liking Snake the most, I'll probably throw my vote to Vyse because he'll need it and Snake won't. And I wonder how many people switched their votes to Snake in later rounds after seeing how close he got to Sephiroth on previous days.

And how many people will maintain their votes from round to round? I mean, Mario, Cloud, and Sephiroth all lost percentage after Samus was eliminated.

And yet Link gained big time every time. That guy's a beast. It's going to be entertaining watching him destroy everything, at least.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:09:26 PM | message detail
after looking at that poll, I'm throwing every single piece of logic I used to put things like Marcus over Kefka in the water.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:10:51 PM | message detail
still, looking at it and finding Diablo fail, I can't find a possible way to tell who wins in this format.
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Warsola | Posted 8/15/2007 11:10:57 PM | message detail
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2564


Yes, I know Snake did well in that, but look at the bracket!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:11:39 PM | message detail
What the ****?
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 11:16:38 PM | message detail
I've come to realize that Kratos's four-pack would have been VERY debatable if PoaC would have been replaced with Diddy Kong. Zidane also could have been replaced by Seifer, though that four-pack is already debatable enough...

...just skimming for ways that our snubbed NRT winners would have made good options. A battle for second between Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, and Marth would have been excellent though.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:17:57 PM | message detail
How much will things change depending on how the percentages of the matches go?

Well, as you were mentioning Solid Snake's 4-pack... notice how he's leagues above the others. Since all of Snake's victims will get a low percentage, Vyse's cult SoA following (and RPG following, too) will probably be magnified here to get him the victory over Nightmare, though I'd Nightmare over Vyse in a normal contest. If it was someone a lot weaker than Solid Snake, Nightmare would suddenly have a lot more a shot. That's my two cents, at least.

As for characters dropping in the Battle Royale, I think that has to do with the voters being different each day more than anything. The vote totals dropped on the 2nd and 3rd days, and perhaps those inclined to vote for Mario or Sephiroth just tend to be the more casual voters who didn't bother to vote on the later days.

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:18:59 PM | message detail
Er, when I said cult following... I inferred non-linearity/voter dilligence.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Link versus Cloud | Posted 8/15/2007 11:19:07 PM | message detail
Dante in the semifinals this is maddness
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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 11:19:51 PM | message detail
Whoa, Knuckles/CATS was the Final Four in aga's site in 2005, heh.
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transience | Posted 8/15/2007 11:20:12 PM | message detail
I remember that match. it was like the finals!
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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 11:20:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, because the finals were rigged! Sonic and CATS tied, and aga gave Sonic the win!
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What now, Merril Hoge?
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