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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 450

smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 8:47:30 PM | message detail
Here's a question: Zelda > Vincent or Vincent > Zelda in round one? Zelda didn't have much exposure in TP, but she's Zelda, so I don't think it matters. Vincent's had his own game, though...I'm leaning toward Zelda.
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Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:47:34 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy XII has actually strengthened Tidus a little because now he's not the current new, hip, Square main character for everyone to hate on, Vaan has taken that place now. Tidus actually looks better now that XII is out and X is so superior to it.

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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:48:15 PM | message detail
I think you guys are putting WAY too little faith in the yellow rat.

I'm not sure where all the faith is even coming from. I mean, he may actually advance, but let's be real here, it wouldn't be because Pikachu is worth something. He'd do it either because Serge just sucks or Tidus pulled some wonky SFF.

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Believe
trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 8:48:28 PM | message detail
Isaac is probably more of a Square character than a Nintendo one anyway. I'd expect more of an RPG overlap than a Nintendo one.
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xexyz
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 8:48:50 PM | message detail
Serge isn't hated, but his game is.

That factor was enough to put Master Hand over Kuja, I can't see why it won't help a Pikachu who's already a lock to beat Serge 1v1, let alone with Tidus taking the Square fanboy vote.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 8:49:50 PM | message detail
Serge isn't hated, but his game is.

That factor was enough to put Master Hand over Kuja


Mindless FFIX bashing for the loss. Kuja IS hated. FFIX isn't.
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What now, Merril Hoge?
LordOfDabu | Posted 8/15/2007 8:50:10 PM | message detail
Personally, I'm taking Serge > Pikachu since it's a possibility and I refuse to lose a point taking a pokemon.
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Hello world
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 8:50:13 PM | message detail
Ewwww

X is superior to XII?

What the hell kind of whacky drug are you smoking?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:04 PM | message detail
Vaan is going to be very weak. He'll probably get less votes than Rikku.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:26 PM | message detail
We need less discussion about how much Serge will fail, and more about the possibility of Balthier outlasting Leon.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:29 PM | message detail
Pikachu who's already a lock to beat Serge 1v1,

What? Since when?

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Believe
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:37 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe
Ewwww

X is superior to XII?

What the hell kind of whacky drug are you smoking?

TuRtLe


The characters are definitely superior, IMO. I don't see Balthier clocking in anywhere near Auron.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:44 PM | message detail
Eh, maybe I jumped the gun about Serge-hatred. I know CC is hated by many and vastly unplayed compared to CT though...so I stand corrected.



I can't see why it won't help a Pikachu who's already a lock to beat Serge 1v1

I'd take Serge > Pikachu one-on-one, but it'd probably be 55-45 or closer.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 8:52:23 PM | message detail
gah, now I want to see Serge in a real contest. he just got shafted by this matchup. five years of nominating down the tubes? maybe.

augh
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xexyz
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 8:53:18 PM | message detail
Balthier could possibly beat Leon one-on-one, but with SFF in the way, no.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:53:38 PM | message detail
Yeah. It's probably not the best draw he could've gotten here, but I wouldn't say he's screwed just yet.

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Believe
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:53:46 PM | message detail
Balthier, on the other hand, I have doing very well in this contest. He'll easily make it to the Final Rounds, he'll be stronger than Yuna, but he'll get killed in the semifinals.

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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 8:53:54 PM | message detail
CC hate is overstated. it sold pretty well and Serge is essentially a Crono clone.

~400000 copies sold (that doubles Xenogears, if you're curious) and the same appeal as Crono. a lot of people who think it's a great game. he'd do well in this format if he didn't have Tidus in his division.
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xexyz
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:54:43 PM | message detail
We need less discussion about how much Serge will fail, and more about the possibility of Balthier outlasting Leon.

Not with Tidus there.

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Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 8:55:06 PM | message detail
What SFF?

Unless you think Vivi/Teedus can survive after tearing pretty evenly into eachother. Yellow rat to round 3!

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 8:55:14 PM | message detail
Balthier will make it to the third round, but having to contend with Vivi is going to hurt them both with Dante and Leon getting through in the end.
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What now, Merril Hoge?
BeTheMan | Posted 8/15/2007 8:56:07 PM | message detail
Is there a reason that people seem to think Serge isn't "mainstream"? From the CC wiki page:

"Chrono Cross sold 850,000 and 650,000 units in Japan and the United States respectively.[4] It was re-released once in the United States as a Greatest Hits title and again as part of the Japanese Ultimate Hits PlayStation series.[5] Critics praised the game's complex plot, innovative battle system, varied characters, moving score, vibrant graphics, and success in breaking convention with its predecessor.[3][35][7][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] Electronic Gaming Monthly gave Chrono Cross a Gold Award, scoring it 10/10/9.5 in their three reviewer format.[44] GameSpot awarded the game a perfect 10, one of four in nearly 1,100 games, and its Console Game of the Year Award for 2000.[3] Famitsu rated the game 36 out of 40 from four reviewers.[25] As of July 2007, Rotten Tomatoes and Game Rankings rate Chrono Cross at 92 and 93 percent.[2][45]

He'll suffer from splitting the Square vote with Tidus, but he shouldn't suffer from lack of awareness.
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:56:20 PM | message detail
Yellow rat to round 3!

Aha.

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Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 8:57:17 PM | message detail
What the hell is this? Pikachu as the sole Nintendo representative in a match with 2 lower-tiered Final Fantasy characters (from the 2 worst modern games to boot) and you think he doesn't advance?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 8:57:54 PM | message detail
650,000? higher than I heard. hmm.

http://gamerankings.com/htmlpages2/196917.asp

check out that hate.

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xexyz
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 8:58:05 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe
What SFF?

Unless you think Vivi/Teedus can survive after tearing pretty evenly into eachother. Yellow rat to round 3!


See, the problem is that Pikachu will require votes from people who like him better than Tidus, Vivi, AND Leon to advance...who are these people exactly? Tidus and Vivi will bash each other, but Pikachu doesn't have the popularity to compete at that level.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 8:58:09 PM | message detail
This is you thinking way too highly of Pikachu, or grossly overestimating the "sole Nintendo character" bit.

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Believe
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 8:59:22 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe
What the hell is this? Pikachu as the sole Nintendo representative in a match with 2 lower-tiered Final Fantasy characters (from the 2 worst modern games to boot) and you think he doesn't advance?

Pikachu has no fanbase. Doesn't matter if he's Nintendo if no one particularly likes him.
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Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:00:09 PM | message detail
Dante is going to be weak, as usual with boring action game characters. He'll get beat by everyone in his last match in the third round.

Balthier will be stronger than Tidus, who will be stronger than Leon, who is a boring action game character who happens to be in a really good game. But with Tidus getting stronger due to growing nostalgia for the younger kids among other reasons I see Balthier as 1 and Tidus as 2 in the third round of that bracket. Yes they are from the same series but I don't think it will factor in this match as much as it will in others.

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THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 9:00:24 PM | message detail
(from the 2 worst modern games to boot)

You like FFIX more than FFX and CC?
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What now, Merril Hoge?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:00:37 PM | message detail
If this was 2002, 2003 or 2004, I'd have taken Serge, but nowadays, people associate more to the Pokemon games than to the Pokemon cartoon. And I think that cartoon is the crux of Pikachu hatred. Not to mention that we haven't seen Pikachu perform since 2k2 (with lower votals and more people voting to "be cool"). Call me crazy, but I have a feeling Pikachu is pretty safe here.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 9:00:42 PM | message detail
Balthier, on the other hand, I have doing very well in this contest. He'll easily make it to the Final Rounds, he'll be stronger than Yuna, but he'll get killed in the semifinals.

heh.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:00:43 PM | message detail
FFX is such a weak game, tieing SSBM is nothing.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 9:02:40 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe
Call me crazy

Crazy.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:02:55 PM | message detail
See, the problem is that Pikachu will require votes from people who like him better than Tidus, Vivi, AND Leon to advance...who are these people exactly? Tidus and Vivi will bash each other, but Pikachu doesn't have the popularity to compete at that level.

That shouldn't be hard at all

And I was referring to the round 2 matchup with Vivi and Tidus.

And meant to say worst modern FF games.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:03:15 PM | message detail
My biggest problems are Vivi and the Prince of all Cosmos, they are the ones that I'm a little worried about in my bracket.

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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 9:03:23 PM | message detail
you guys still haven't learned to ignore him :(
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xexyz
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 9:03:24 PM | message detail
Why are EGM's scores for CC from 2004? The game's much older than that...and last I remember, when the game originally came out, EGM barely gave it a silver.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 9:03:46 PM | message detail
That shouldn't be hard at all

Call me crazy

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 9:05:04 PM | message detail
Bold Tidus and Vivi all you want, but Vivi smashed DK and looked to be pretty unaffected when he faced Sephiroth. It's hard to imagine Tidus costing Vivi the next round because of Pikachu.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 9:05:33 PM | message detail
Characters need fanbases to survive when there are three other options. Pikachu doesn't have, and never had, a solid fanbase supporting him. That would be okay if he were against unknowns like round one, but he's not. Pikachu is screwed.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:05:36 PM | message detail
I'm always right about 1 thing that nobody else in the stats topic sees coming. It happened in 2k5 (Pac/Ocelot), it happened in BSE (Warcraft/GTA) and it happened last year (Sonic = MM on Snake).

I have a feeling this will be my "BT's common sense making a fool of the stats regulars" moment for CB6.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 9:06:25 PM | message detail
Can we ignore you on everything else then? =P
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 9:07:09 PM | message detail
That's what's going on here.

Pikachu > Tidus, Vivi. Rocking the common sense there, BT!

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Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:07:30 PM | message detail
Actually, never mind. This year I will have 2 such moments, with the other being Zero to the quarter finals!

BELIEVE

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
THEVinceYoung | Posted 8/15/2007 9:07:37 PM | message detail
Nobody else sees Pikachu advancing to the second round? Uhh...I think he's in the majority of brackets.
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What now, Merril Hoge?
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 9:08:43 PM | message detail
From THEVinceYoung
Nobody else sees Pikachu advancing to the second round? Uhh...I think he's in the majority of brackets.

He's definitely advancing to the second round, but not to the third.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/15/2007 9:08:48 PM | message detail
Nobody (sane) see Pikachu advancing to the third round.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 9:08:48 PM | message detail
I think it's pretty accepted that Tidus/Vivi will be taking a fairly even split between the 2 (with Vivi getting the larger chunk IMO), so why can't NintendoFAQs put Pikachu over in his first real appearance since jobbing to Cloud in 2k2?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Nobody9090 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:09:31 PM | message detail
L-Block is going to be stronger than most people think it will be.

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