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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 6:04:28 PM | message detail
It depends on whether or not you think Zelda would beat Sonic or Mega Man.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 6:04:55 PM | message detail
I need to mention something who goes on between Ocelot and Jill... Cloud is in the poll. Basically, we can expect Ocelot and Jill to get around 15% a piece, or a little worse even. At those levels, factors such as fanbase (for the character, not the company) dilligence will become a lot more inflated. I think Ocelot will have more such factors in favor of him than Jill. If Ocelot doesn't get SFFed by Cloud, I think he should be favored. Now, you could argue that Ocelot may suffer very little or no SFF in this sort of poll looking at how Solid Snake did in the Battle Royale last year... and... SFF involving MGS characters has honestly been very inconclusive.

Well, that's just some thoughts, anyway.

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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 6:05:02 PM | message detail
I suppose that would drop her back!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/15/2007 6:05:33 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/15/2007 6:06:01 PM | message detail
Other than the fact that the entire female bracket seemed to be a bit overrrated due to how easily Snake beat everyone else and then Samus turns around and beats Snake easily herself.


Not that there's any logical reason for that overrating that I can tell >_<
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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 6:06:38 PM | message detail
Hmm...perhaps there is reason to pick Zelda over Vincent after all.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 6:06:40 PM | message detail
after 2k6, I made some super-hax0red-made-to-look-good x-stats:

http://transience.paragonsigma.com/2k6xstats.txt

I don't make any claims on their validity, so use them at your own risk. :)
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xexyz
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/15/2007 6:09:34 PM | message detail
*finally makes it to this topic only to see over 100 more posts than when he last checked*

Argh limited time on compy. =/

Does Subby have any chance in Sonic/Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/15/2007 6:09:40 PM | message detail
Vivi is 25% in the stats, which is higher than any of the others...

Hmm...
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...You know what would make this fight even better? If it had the Beetleborgs. And Godzilla.- SEP
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 6:11:48 PM | message detail
All three characters are noticeably stronger than Sub-Zero, so I say...no.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
Gaddswell | Posted 8/15/2007 6:11:48 PM | message detail
Mega Man or Samus? Who ends up higher with Yoshi in the division finals and Bowser in the quarterfinal?
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sig
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 6:12:23 PM | message detail
Does Subby have any chance in Sonic/Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero?

could happen if Squall's split with Sora is that bad.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 6:16:26 PM | message detail
Does Subby have any chance in Sonic/Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero?

Nah. Can't see that going any other way than Sonic and Squall.

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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 6:27:07 PM | message detail
The Champ...IS HERE!

Wow, what a contest. My bracket's done, with some minor room for tweaking. Ask me anything.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 6:49:48 PM | message detail
so, assuming anyone here has Dante/Balthier/Leon/Tidus at the end of division 6 (or at least something similar) who do you picture coming out of that alive?
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a winner is you | Posted 8/15/2007 6:53:07 PM | message detail
seems pretty obvious there. unless one of the Square characters sucks up a lot of votes from the other, go with the capcom guys.
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zizzy
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 6:53:22 PM | message detail
As much as I hate to say it, I don't think Tidus is beating out Vivi. I don't see SFF favoring him against the iconic Black Mage design.

But after that, I'll take Dante and Leon, with Balthier hindering Vivi's chances of advancing.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 6:53:58 PM | message detail
Leon > Dante
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 6:55:20 PM | message detail
By the way, is creativename going to be able to make the updater work on gamefaqscontests.com this year? We had to do manual updates last year during the Battle Royale.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 6:57:01 PM | message detail
HK-47 vs Lloyd for second place in the Zero match is interesting. I would expect Lloyd since he's in Nintendo's crowd and not Microsoft's, but 2004 HK-47 has the edge on 2005 Lloyd. What are your thoughts?
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 6:58:26 PM | message detail
My thoughts are that I wish it was Jak.

My bracket goes to Lloyd though.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/15/2007 6:59:52 PM | message detail
so, assuming anyone here has Dante/Balthier/Leon/Tidus at the end of division 6 (or at least something similar) who do you picture coming out of that alive?

Dante will be first in that pack, then Leon.

Unless Ada Wong pulls an upset and squeezes Balthier out, characters from RE4 have this weird strength. I say this as a possibility because of how forgettable FF12 was and we haven't seen what characters from that game are like. If Balthier gets into that pack, as you described, I can see him and Tidus SFFing each other to death while Dante/Leon pull ahead.
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redrocket | Posted 8/15/2007 6:59:53 PM | message detail
My thoughts are Jak takes that.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 6:59:59 PM | message detail
HEH, actually Jak is closer to HK than Lloyd is. But I'd still expect Lloyd to pull this off in a 4-way.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:02:33 PM | message detail
I had Lloyd at first but just recently switched to HK. His fanbase, while not large, loves him. Even if Lloyd has a potentially bigger pool from which to draw votes, I'm not sure how many of them actually care enough to vote him over three other characters. Also, we haven't seen anything ToS in two years; my hunch says it's dropped.
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 7:03:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm still not sure why Jak is being completely discounted in this match. It's not like HK-47 and especially Lloyd are worth much of anything. Sure, you can say that this type of match appeals to more dedicated cult RPG fanbases, but I still don't see Lloyd getting second place here. I'd expect HK-47's RPG cult fanbase to outdo Lloyd's.

And if you take Sephy/Auron SFF into consideration, there's a very good chance that Jak is stronger than HK-47 anyway. But again, head-to-head strength isn't the deciding factor here.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:04:19 PM | message detail
Here's a thought for anyone still debating Pac-Man vs. Big Boss.

Sure, Pac-Man is a far more recognizable name. Sure, you have to have played Metal Gear Solid 3 (or the original Metal Gear/Metal Gear 2 I guess) to have any appreciation for Big Boss.

Two things work in Big Boss's favor, though:

1.) Anyone just voting for someone they recognize will be FAR more likely to choose Mario.
2.) There's a chance that Big Boss will get an MGS3 pic. If he does, I shouldn't have to tell you why THAT would be to his advantage.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 7:04:58 PM | message detail
Also, we haven't seen anything ToS in two years; my hunch says it's dropped.

Sheena? she outperformed Lloyd, in fact.
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xexyz
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:06:07 PM | message detail
God damn female bracket interfering with everything.
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 7:06:09 PM | message detail
I really doubt Big Boss gets a MGS3 picture. The old man is Big Boss, the young guy is Naked Snake, at least in the eyes of the fans.

But really, the deciding factor to me is the fact that Mario will utterly crush Pac-Man old school style.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:07:06 PM | message detail
Wasn't Sheena behind Tifa?
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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/15/2007 7:07:08 PM | message detail
I think people think more highly of Pac-Man ever since his massive (as in, one of the biggest in Contest history) upset over Revolver Ocelot.
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:07:18 PM | message detail
Lloyd might be a bit underrated, because he's behind Mario/Zero, where there were probably some shenanigans. I think Lloyd and HK-47 would be pretty much even in a head to head match. Maybe Jak would too, but I can't help but notice Ratchet crapping out and apply the same to Jak.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 7:08:08 PM | message detail
even if you adjust Sheena down, she's above Lloyd.
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xexyz
swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 7:08:58 PM | message detail
Lloyd might be a bit underrated, because he's behind Mario/Zero, where there were probably some shenanigans.

Now I thought that when that match was going on, Zero was said to be resisting SFF, so if that was the case, wouldn't that make Lloyd overrated if anything?
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:09:52 PM | message detail
I really doubt Big Boss gets a MGS3 picture. The old man is Big Boss, the young guy is Naked Snake, at least in the eyes of the fans.

I fully agree with that logic, but the counterargument to this is that there aren't a whole lot of non-Naked Snake pics of him out there. In fact, using only official artwork or in-game shots, does he even HAVE 2 pics?
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 7:11:40 PM | message detail
You have to adjust Sheena down A LOT for her to be weaker than Lloyd. Remember, Lloyd's contest value based on Wesker is approximately equal to Mithos. Sure, the Tales fanbase is niche and probably dedicated, but a lot of people dislike Lloyd.

I think Lloyd and HK-47 would be pretty much even in a head to head match.

I don't buy that for a second. HK-47 managed to avoid getting doubled by Sora; Lloyd barely avoided getting tripled by Zero. The strength differential there isn't enough for me to seriously consider Lloyd > HK-47 straight up.

Maybe Jak would too, but I can't help but notice Ratchet crapping out and apply the same to Jak.

Well, that's just nonsense. Ratchet got quadrupled by Dante. There's no way that happens to Jak, and there's no way Ratchet gets 45% on Ness ever. Jak is more comparable to Conker or Crash Bandicoot than anything, and he's probably stronger than both of them, honestly.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 7:12:23 PM | message detail
but the counterargument to this is that there aren't a whole lot of non-Naked Snake pics of him out there. In fact, using only official artwork or in-game shots, does he even HAVE 2 pics?

It doesn't matter. The fact is that he DOES have an old man picture, and it will likely be used.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 7:14:05 PM | message detail
Mario (2006c raw) VS Pac-Man (2005c raw)

Mario has a strength of 43.20.
Pac-Man has a strength of 13.45.

Mario wins with 84.43% of the vote!
A win of 91,582 with 132,987 total votes cast.


Here is the counter argument. Mario is going to beat the living hell out of Pac-Man's vote pool if Luigi and Yoshi proved anything head-to-head.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:14:19 PM | message detail
Well, that's just nonsense. Ratchet got quadrupled by Dante. There's no way that happens to Jak, and there's no way Ratchet gets 45% on Ness ever. Jak is more comparable to Conker or Crash Bandicoot than anything, and he's probably stronger than both of them, honestly.

I agree with this. IMO, you come away from any of the Jak games liking both Jak and Daxter (moreso Daxter though). I've only completed the first Ratchet & Clank game, but I came away from it liking Clank but disliking Ratchet.
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 7:15:35 PM | message detail
Well, for what it's worth, Ratchet is flat out unlikeable in the first game. He gets significantly better in the sequels.

Clank still owns him completely though.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 7:17:23 PM | message detail
Maybe Jak would too, but I can't help but notice Ratchet crapping out and apply the same to Jak.

Jak has been in the contest though, and he was easily stronger than Ratchet...
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/15/2007 7:18:29 PM | message detail
From JaKyL25 Posted 8/15/2007 9:27:07 PM #414
Ask me anything.

How does it feel acting like you're me? =p

~*ST*~
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:18:39 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter. The fact is that he DOES have an old man picture, and it will likely be used.

I've found a full-body shot and a head shot of Big Boss. Just enough for how far he's likely to make it, and the perfect kinds of pics for the first two rounds too. Dammit.

I wish there was a chance for him to advance to Round Three just to see what would happen.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/15/2007 7:18:45 PM | message detail
darn you leon for forcing me to second guess myself for that whole Lloyd/HK-47/Jak mess. If only you let me continue to think that Lloyd did better in that match than the actual result showed.

Oh well...
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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 7:19:17 PM | message detail
Jak (2004c) VS Ratchet (2004c)

Jak has a strength of 18.45.
Ratchet has a strength of 10.78.

Jak wins with 70.79% of the vote!
A win of 30,433 with 73,207 total votes cast.


Woah, that's a big win. To be fair, Jak was behind Ness, who we have no good read on, but wow.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/15/2007 7:20:19 PM | message detail
From JaKyL25 Posted 8/15/2007 10:04:19 PM #427
Here's a thought for anyone still debating Pac-Man vs. Big Boss.

Sure, Pac-Man is a far more recognizable name. Sure, you have to have played Metal Gear Solid 3 (or the original Metal Gear/Metal Gear 2 I guess) to have any appreciation for Big Boss.

Two things work in Big Boss's favor, though:

1.) Anyone just voting for someone they recognize will be FAR more likely to choose Mario.
2.) There's a chance that Big Boss will get an MGS3 pic. If he does, I shouldn't have to tell you why THAT would be to his advantage.


Mario is in that match. Pac-Man has no chance in hell of getting second place.

~*ST*~
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JaKyL25 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:20:32 PM | message detail
How does it feel acting like you're me? =p

I'm doing it subconsciously! It must be a "champion's ego" thing in the ether of life.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 7:21:55 PM | message detail
Hmm, 2003 Isaac beats 2002 Pikachu 60-40. Does Isaac have a shot here, or has Golden Sun become too old to compete? (I'm thinking too old, but Pikachu is fun to hate, and who knows what Serge does).
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:22:03 PM | message detail
Argh, I was already going to go to bed fretting over Alucard/Ness/Zidane/Liquid. Now I can't stop thinking about Lloyd/HK-47/Jak... I did forget that Jak had done well against Ness, though. For some reason I thought he got 60-40'd.

Maybe a good night's sleep will help clear things up.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
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