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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 2:50:53 PM | message detail
You do know that Kirby is pretty popular on this site right?

Yeah, Kirby is, but his games really aren't. He does have Smash Brothers to fall back on.
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Nominate Serge.
trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 2:51:03 PM | message detail
I'm way behind here, so I'm going to comment as I go.

The Ganondorf/Luigi/Master Chief/Yuna fourpack is the most debated in the contest so far, methinks. It's tough because it's so late so it could be the difference in determining the first place bracket. Yuna will be the lone Square character in that poll, so it could help her. People keep mentioning Ness benefiting from being the only Nintendo character in his fourpack, but nobody mentions that in this instance.

I think it's generally understood that Yuna's got that advantage. you don't need to say it. I think the reason people mention it so much with Ness is that you need to justify picking a random SSB character over three more established characters. plus, Ness's poll is ps1/ps1/ps1/Nintendo; Yuna's is Nintendo/Nintendo/X-Box/Square. there's more diversity there.
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xexyz
GrapefruitKing | Posted 8/15/2007 2:51:36 PM | message detail
Meta-Knight is nothing until SSBB
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 2:52:32 PM | message detail
It's Konami/Konami/Square/Nintendo. I really don't see the other being a case of more diversity just because the platforms are more diverse.
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Nominate Serge.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 2:54:59 PM | message detail
It's Konami/Konami/Square/Nintendo. I really don't see the other being a case of more diversity just because the platforms are more diverse.

Take another look at FFVII/MGS, then.

Or have you come to agree that MGS2 > MGS?
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 2:57:30 PM | message detail
It's not a guarantee that something weird like that will happen. Remember that when Snake was eliminated from the Battle Royale, his percentage will fairly evenly distributed between Cloud and Link. Cloud didn't get a decisively larger portion of them. I just don't see any reason to expect something strange between the likes of Liquid, Alucard, and Zidane. Those three are about as diverse as you get.
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Nominate Serge.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 2:57:56 PM | message detail
If Meta Knight beats Ness now, Meta Knight will beat Kirby after SSBB.

Ness would smash Meta Knight, Pit, and Ike if they were in the same poll OR went head-to-head.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 3:00:03 PM | message detail
Thank you GFK and Harrich. I honestly have no clue what the rationale is behind supporting Pit Ike and Meta-Knight

TuRtLe
~~~
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 3:00:54 PM | message detail
Well, Pit and Ike are in fourpacks with a bunch of total losers and are in very winnable positions...not Meta-Knight.
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Acronym | Posted 8/15/2007 3:01:41 PM | message detail
I really don't see how Meta-Knight's incidental role in the Kirby series puts him over Ness, who is just as important to SSB (which is immensely more popular) and maintains a solid cult following from his own leading role as well. Where did this idea come from? There doesn't seem to be a single intangible in favor of MK.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 3:07:59 PM | message detail
Meta Knight is the rival in Kirby's poorly-selling games that aren't so well-received here, and if you haven't played the series then you either don't know him or only know him through SSBB. Peach is from Mario's top-selling games AND spin-offs AND has her own game, and if you haven't played the series then you are in the overwhelming minority AND you've still likely heard of her. Meta Knight isn't beating Jill (or even Sheena), SMB > Kirby series, Peach is more recognizable...

...man, whatever though. CATS is the real threat here to Peach, and I've not decided for sure who I'm picking there. Meta Knight is coming in last place though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 3:08:52 PM | message detail
Oh, and unless MK is badly broken and widely favored in SSBB, he wouldn't have a chance against Peach even after it's released.
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 3:09:38 PM | message detail
I don't really see CATS as a legitimate threat to advance. Sure, he may get 15% or so, but I don't think that'll be enough to move on. I don't think Sephy is getting 65%+ of the vote or whatever he'd need for 15% to be enough.
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Nominate Serge.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 3:20:14 PM | message detail
it's not that I'm calling Peach fodder, I just think that she's going to fall apart in a multi-poll. I think the majority of Peach votes are "because I don't like or know the other character."

add in Meta-Knight and CATS, (and honestly, being in an SSBB trailer has to account for something. it is one of the most hyped games on the site.) and I think Peach has to split votes with Meta-Knight, giving CATS the chance to win that one.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2007 3:27:45 PM | message detail
Brawl being hyped didn't exactly help Zero Suit Samus vs Tifa.

By your crappy logic, ZSS should have done better than what regular Samus would be projected to do.

And Peach only fell apart in multi-option polls with FREAKING MARIO Luigi and Yoshi.

TuRtLe
~~~
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 3:28:38 PM | message detail
And Wario and Toad, powerhouses that they are!
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Nominate Serge.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/15/2007 3:29:48 PM | message detail
not to mention the fact poll of the days dont translate into Contest strength.


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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 3:30:44 PM | message detail
Which is what makes this contest so interesting! Multicharacter polls are much different than head-to-head.
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Nominate Serge.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 3:31:29 PM | message detail
Brawl being hyped didn't exactly help Zero Suit Samus vs Tifa.

Zero Suit Samus just wasn't recognizable to the people who only know her through her suit.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 3:32:25 PM | message detail
not to mention the fact poll of the days dont translate into Contest strength.

the poll of the days are multi-polls, if anything, they hold more use than they did before.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 3:45:43 PM | message detail
it's not that I'm calling Peach fodder, I just think that she's going to fall apart in a multi-poll. I think the majority of Peach votes are "because I don't like or know the other character."

You're holding her to a poll against the most popular characters in her own series. Just because lots of people didn't vote for Peach in the presence of Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Yoshi, Toad, etc. doesn't mean that the Mario fanbase wouldn't support her in the presence of Meta-Knight.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 3:46:22 PM | message detail
And speaking of that four-pack, I think the Nintendo fanbase on this site is large enough to potentially push both Luigi and Ganondorf to the next round if they split that vote.

I'm not thinking it's gonna happen like that. If it splits -- and I can't think of a reason it wouldn't -- I could only see one of them advancing, not both. Good chance neither could advance, too, but I think it's more likely one will. Both... eh.

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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 3:59:08 PM | message detail
I meant if they split it equally. I think that Luigi and Ganondorf can easily get more than 50% of the votes between them. I see the poll being extremely close with anyone being able to take it.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 3:59:49 PM | message detail
hmm.

Leon
Dante
Ganondorf
Master Chief

just taking what I assume is the consensus here.. what do people think of this?
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 4:01:53 PM | message detail
I've got MC and Ganon advancing out of that one.

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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 4:11:49 PM | message detail
I'll take Ganondorf > Master Chief there.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 4:16:47 PM | message detail
Yep, Ganon > MC.

In addition to MC having the advantage in such polls, I imagine that Dante and Leon have fairly similar fanbases, since they have extremely similar personalities and come from game which should have the same fanbases.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 4:17:36 PM | message detail
Ganon > Chief for that one.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 4:25:11 PM | message detail
I actually might take Dante there. Cheif sucks in these contests, Halo 3 or not.
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 4:28:15 PM | message detail
Chief is inconsistent in one-on-one polls from match to match, but he doesn't suck in contests. And this type of format is perfect for him -- it eliminates the anti-votes.

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Believe
trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 4:28:25 PM | message detail
wow, didn't expect such a consensus. what if it's Luigi or Yuna in place of Ganondorf?
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xexyz
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 4:31:24 PM | message detail
If Luigi, Chief and Luigi. If Yuna, Chief and... maybe Leon... probably Yuna (the whole "lone Square character" bit.)

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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 4:32:31 PM | message detail
From trannyscience
hmm.

Leon
Dante
Ganondorf
Master Chief

just taking what I assume is the consensus here.. what do people think of this?


If that match were to happen, I would take Ganondorf and MC.

wow, didn't expect such a consensus. what if it's Luigi or Yuna in place of Ganondorf?

That makes it harder to call. I doubt Luigi could possibly SFF Ganondorf, but I have considered what would happen if Yuna were there...she could potentially defeat MC since there is no other option for RPGers.
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 4:33:01 PM | message detail
I've got MC and Luigi there myself. If Yuna made it, I'd probably take MC and Dante.
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Nominate Serge.
NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 4:34:30 PM | message detail
wow, didn't expect such a consensus. what if it's Luigi or Yuna in place of Ganondorf?

Well, what makes Luigi/Ganon/Chief/Yuna so difficult to call is that you don't know how Luigi/Ganondorf will split. If one of them is gone, it's not as hard to call. Doesn't mean it'll go the way we expect. Just we'll feel more confident, heh.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 4:36:02 PM | message detail
well, I'm pretty sure most people think Ganondorf is naturally stronger than Luigi, they just question his leech status. if Luigi does turn the tables on them, I want to see if they believe he can take the Nintendo vote despite being perhaps the weakest character there.

well, besides MC, who doesn't count.
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xexyz
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 4:37:21 PM | message detail
the poll of the days are multi-polls, if anything, they hold more use than they did before.

Good to see someone thinking the same thing!

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Believe
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 4:47:08 PM | message detail
Question:

Did anyone care enough about the new Ninja Gaiden game to give Hayabusa at least a moderate boost?

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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 4:47:52 PM | message detail
It doesn't really matter. Hayabusa is in no serious danger of failing to make the second round and is no serious threat to make the third round.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 4:49:35 PM | message detail
If it had more than a significant boost, I'd consider taking Hayabusa over Riku.


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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 4:50:23 PM | message detail
I doubt it's a significant boost, not enough to put him over Riku, at any rate.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 4:50:54 PM | message detail
I actually have Ryu H. in the third round because of Snake/Sora.
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Radix | Posted 8/15/2007 5:04:17 PM | message detail
I can't tell if some of my picks are clever upsets or HM tomfoolery :/
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/15/2007 5:04:47 PM | message detail
I think everyone's in the same boat, heh. Nobody's sure what to expect from this contest.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 5:05:40 PM | message detail
I felt like I was following the pack for a while, but watching some of the recent picks, I can't help but think my bracket is going to look utterly ridiculous compared to others.
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xexyz
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/15/2007 5:08:58 PM | message detail
Anything else think Yoshi ends up getting more votes than Knuckles? Knuckles is stronger but Yoshi has the dedicated fanbase.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/15/2007 5:09:45 PM | message detail
when has Knuckles ever shown he's stronger than Yoshi?
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xexyz
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 5:09:47 PM | message detail
For the 90th time today I'm back to Sephiroth/Fox/Peach/Wario. I'm just not confident in Fox > Peach. Peach has the superior franchise, and they're both in SSBM (though Fox was there first in SSB). I think she might be underrated...
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 5:10:34 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Knuckles in general; it's when Mega Man gets involved that doubts arise.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 8/15/2007 5:12:10 PM | message detail
Also, am I correct in that only the first round gives you bonus points for right order?
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