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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:49:33 PM | message detail
Jak is going to bomb. Sure, he's known, but that doesn't mean people actually care about him. I don't think you don't need to be a traditionally strong character to do well in a contest like this, but you do need a somewhat dedicated fanbase. HK-47 has that, Lloyd may have a larger one (although not as loyal), and Jak doesn't have one at all.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:49:41 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Lloyd or Jak wins that, and Jak seems to lean on me more because I can picture non-Zero fans voting for him.

Lloyd's X-stat value is based entirely on non-Zero fans. >_>
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 12:49:58 PM | message detail
From Mac Arrowny
Canderous >>> HK-47

*fires up lightsaber*
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:51:02 PM | message detail
Canderous > Carth > HK > the rest
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Halcyon26 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:51:37 PM | message detail
Ignoring split votes between Midna and Samus, how strong would Midna have to be to beat Frog straight up? And Scorpion plays little part in that match, right?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:51:52 PM | message detail
Carth uses two blasters for twice the power.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:54:39 PM | message detail
Who puts Carth over HK-47? Sure he's got good stats, but his character blows and is really whiney most of the game.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:55:09 PM | message detail
Eventually, you have to think about this: Cult GC game v. popular Xbox game.

it's on the PS2 too?
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GANON1025 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:55:48 PM | message detail
Carth over HK? That's insane.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:57:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, Carth's a pretty terrible character.

Atton I could understand...but Carth?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:57:19 PM | message detail
I liked Carth's subplot, and his whining always cracked me up. Plus, yeah, he was great in battle. Carth and Canderous are the ultimate team for people who don't wanna go all cheap with Force powers.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:57:34 PM | message detail
Nobody cares about the PS2 ToS.

Guys, STAR WARS.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:58:15 PM | message detail
Lloyd's X-stat value is based entirely on non-Zero fans. >_>

I mean, who has the most, that is.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:01:03 PM | message detail
...I can't wait until Scorpion rapes everyone in his path. Just to show all you ijjits who don't think he'll do squat.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 1:01:24 PM | message detail
It's a toss-up, but I love HK too much to bet against him when he's got a real chance.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:02:45 PM | message detail
Man, I just have the feeling that we are going to get burned repeatedly throughout this contest. It seems like most of the board is taking "safe" picks, but the fact that we've only seen something like this in the Battle Royale (an environment that allowed Snake to beat out Sephiroth) tells me that we are going to get a lot of unexpected surprises. There is a lot more consensus on many picks than I would've expected, and that scares me, honestly.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 1:03:02 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, just why do you think Scorpion will do so well? Sub-Zero's performance in '06? Scorpion wasn't too impressive the last time he showed up, but he's got an advantage here in that all the casuals will know him, which actually counts for something in a foursome match.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 1:04:24 PM | message detail
I think all the casuals knowing Midna is a pretty safe bet too, given the rise of the Wii as the casual console of choice.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 1:04:56 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour
Man, I just have the feeling that we are going to get burned repeatedly throughout this contest. It seems like most of the board is taking "safe" picks, but the fact that we've only seen something like this in the Battle Royale (an environment that allowed Snake to beat out Sephiroth) tells me that we are going to get a lot of unexpected surprises. There is a lot more consensus on many picks than I would've expected, and that scares me, honestly.

I guarantee that there will be nothing remotely resembling a perfect bracket by the end :) There are going to be tons of surprises, which is why it's the most fun contest since '02.
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Halcyon26 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:06:11 PM | message detail
I think all the casuals knowing Midna is a pretty safe bet too, given the rise of the Wii as the casual console of choice.

But can she get by Frog into the third round?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:06:19 PM | message detail
What's with all this dreary talk?! HAVE YOU ALL LOST THE TRUE SPIRIT!??!?!?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:06:33 PM | message detail
For the record, I've got Midna > Scorpion in the first round, but if Scorpion won, I wouldn't be surprised. She may be Zelda, but we still don't know what to expect from her, but when in doubt, choose Zelda, I say.

But I don't think she'll beat out Frog AND Scorpion in the second round with Samus in the poll. Frog/Scorpion is tricky though.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 1:09:25 PM | message detail
Counting on Samus to SFF anyone is probably a mistake, IMO.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:10:49 PM | message detail
True enough, but I just have a hard time seeing Midna beating out Scorpion AND Frog in the same poll with Samus there, dubious SFF ability or not.
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:10:54 PM | message detail
Samus did all right against Ganondorf SFF-wise. She also managed to hold her own against Link in 2K3.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 1:13:00 PM | message detail
Indeed. The match should depend on where you think Midna is. If you think she's barely better than Frog/Scorps to start with, don't take her. But I think she'll be rather higher than that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:14:15 PM | message detail
Also, something that I've been thinking about lately is the Sephiroth/Mario/Magus/Fox(?) fourpack. We've already seen examples that Mario isn't at his best in multioption polls, and this really seems like something Magus could excel in as a fan favorite. Sure, Sephiroth might be there to siphon some votes, but I don't really expect hardcore SFF here. I've heard a lot of talk of maybe Mario beating out Sephy (which I don't buy, for reasons I previously stated), but has anyone considered the possibility of Magus edging out Mario?

I don't think I'd ever take it with Sephy there, but I honestly think it's possible and I'd almost be scared of it without Sephiroth in the fourpack.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 1:15:05 PM | message detail
I think the Squall/Aeris/Akuma trio is being considerably overlooked.

I don't know if being FF7 saves her, however, but if it's as bad as the beating he gave Tidus, Akuma makes a run for it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:15:07 PM | message detail
Noticeably higher than Frog or Scorpion? Ehhhhhh, I don't think so. That'd put her close to DK, more than likely, and I don't think I'd have the guts to put her that high.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:15:54 PM | message detail
I would absolutely love to take Akuma, but I don't think anything SFFs FFVII ever, except for something else from FFVII, even if it is Aeris.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 1:17:00 PM | message detail
Mario definitely improved greatly as a favorite character in between the favorite Mario character polls that we've seen. And you can't really hold the Battle Royale against him with Link there to dominate the Nintendo vote. I'm pretty sure that without Link there, Mario would have done MUCH better. Bottom line, I certainly don't think Magus would pose a threat to him.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 1:17:10 PM | message detail
Why hasn't anyone commented on the travesty that is Daxter making the contest but not Clank?
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 1:18:09 PM | message detail
Heh, I didn't even notice Daxter was there.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:19:02 PM | message detail
Well, the thing is, Mario actually held up relatively well against Link back in 2002 (Link is much stronger now than then, granted), but then he got owned by him there. Sure, Mario improved greatly in the Favorite Mario Character poll, but he still didn't win.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:20:08 PM | message detail
Why hasn't anyone commented on the travesty that is Daxter making the contest but not Clank?

Because I don't want to spend lots of time ranting on this injustice, but I'll actually be voting for Daxter in his match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:21:45 PM | message detail
Also, I made a topic about this, but I didn't get a lot of responses, so I figured I'd throw it over to you guys. We have quite a few fourpacks with obvious winners but a not-so-obvious second place character. What do you guys think about these?

Mega Man vs. Diablo/KOS-MOS/Arthas

Mario vs. Big Boss/Pac-Man/Wander

Magus vs. Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix Wright

Link vs. Agent J/Bidoof/Edgeworth

Zero vs. HK-47/Jak/Lloyd Irving

Luigi vs. Mudkip/Pit/Tingle

Ganondorf vs. Ratchet/Thrall/Vergil

Dante vs. Amaterasu/Little Mac/Matt

Kirby vs. L-Block/Laharl/Nathan Hale

Solid Snake vs. Nightmare/Vyse/Rayman
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 1:23:55 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Yuna could be a very serious competitor here due to her lucky bracket draw? She could conceivably make it to the semifinals, but I hardly see anyone discussing her.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:26:03 PM | message detail
The Ganondorf/Luigi/Master Chief/Yuna fourpack is the most debated in the contest so far, methinks. It's tough because it's so late so it could be the difference in determining the first place bracket. Yuna will be the lone Square character in that poll, so it could help her. People keep mentioning Ness benefiting from being the only Nintendo character in his fourpack, but nobody mentions that in this instance.
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Halcyon26 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:26:55 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Yuna could be a very serious competitor here due to her lucky bracket draw? She could conceivably make it to the semifinals, but I hardly see anyone discussing her.

I have her going to at least the Sweet 16. Elite 8 depends on if she can beat Dante. I currently have that group as Luigi, Dante, Yuna, Leon. Might switch Luigi to Ganondorf, but either way, the lone Nintendo character advances. From the other three, I'm not so sure.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 1:27:07 PM | message detail
(an environment that allowed Snake to beat out Sephiroth)

I'm starting to get annoyed by people continuing to bring that match up... was it really a shocker after what he did in the contest, seeing as Cloud was still there, really? In all of my picks I took SFF into account very seriously, while weighing in how far ahead I normally believed characters to be in a direct head to head match-up first, and how significant the SFF would be second. There's plenty, and I mean plenty of picks that I would never have made if I didn't, if anything I think I put too much stock into that, and I'll get burned as a result.

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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 1:27:19 PM | message detail
That's the reason why Yuna is a threat. Otherwise she wouldn't be in the discussion.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:29:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know Cloud was there to drain Sephy, but that's what makes things so weird. Like Link/Mario in 2002, neither of the Cloud/Sephiroth matches seemed to show any SFF, but throw them in a multioption poll, and it's different. That's what concerns me about this contest.
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:31:51 PM | message detail
Mega Man vs. Diablo/KOS-MOS/Arthas: Counting on some Blizzard vote splitting here. Arthas might take it though, since the match is on a Tuesday and Warcraft does have big rally potential.

Mario vs. Big Boss/Pac-Man/Wander: If Luigi can make Pac-Man look like fodder, imagine what Mario will do.

Magus vs. Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix Wright: I'm torn on this one too. I'm counting on Bomberman since I do not trust anything that lost to Gordon Freeman.

Link vs. Agent J/Bidoof/Edgeworth: When Link's probably going to be getting 90%, joke votes count.

Zero vs. HK-47/Jak/Lloyd Irving: As I said earlier, cult Xbox RPG versus cult Gamecube RPG. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.

Luigi vs. Mudkip/Pit/Tingle: B8/LUE/LL joke votes might do it, but if that doesn't, I know several people will be spamming 4chan on the day of that match.

Ganondorf vs. Ratchet/Thrall/Vergil: No clue, just a guess.

Dante vs. Amaterasu/Little Mac/Matt: Again, no clue, just a guess.

Kirby vs. L-Block/Laharl/Nathan Hale: Nathan who? L-Block wins on joke votes.

Solid Snake vs. Nightmare/Vyse/Rayman: Vyse does have a very dedicated group of fans, which should be enough to get him through those other two.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 1:33:04 PM | message detail
And speaking of that four-pack, I think the Nintendo fanbase on this site is large enough to potentially push both Luigi and Ganondorf to the next round if they split that vote. Yuna may be the lone Square character, but I don't think they will automatically support her. I'm sure there are plenty Square fans who would like Ganondorf or Luigi better than Yuna. I don't think the Square fanbase is that hardcore where they would vote a character over anyone simply because they are Square. I'm not saying Yuna isn't popular or anything, but I'm not automatically handing her the entire Square fanbase for a multipoll...
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 1:33:53 PM | message detail
Cloud/Sephiroth matches seemed to show any SFF, but throw them in a multioption poll, and it's different. That's what concerns me about this contest.

Well yeah, you don't need to SFF someone in order to split votes for them. The only thing that the lack of SFF shows me is that it's going to significantly hurt both characters chances of moving on, instead of just one of them.

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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:34:35 PM | message detail
I have Yuna > Chief, I'm well convinced of that, after her performance vs Zelda.

Alucard > Ness, though I'm still a bit shaky on this.

Then, I have Alucard > Yuna. I consider this to be an upset though, and I kind of like it looking at it. I very well think Alucard could surprise. But I don't think either one can beat Luigi. He did so well last year... I wouldn't do Ganon/Card... if anything it'd be Ganon/Yuna, and I could see that, but Yuna beating Luigi isn't that likely to me. After all... Luigi DID get 47% on Tifa...


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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:35:02 PM | message detail
Mega Man vs. Diablo/KOS-MOS/Arthas

Mario vs. Big Boss/Pac-Man/Wander

Magus vs. Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix Wright

Link vs. Agent J/Bidoof/Edgeworth

Zero vs. HK-47/Jak/Lloyd Irving

Luigi vs. Mudkip/Pit/Tingle

Ganondorf vs. Ratchet/Thrall/Vergil

Dante vs. Amaterasu/Little Mac/Matt

Kirby vs. L-Block/Laharl/Nathan Hale

Solid Snake vs. Nightmare/Vyse/Rayman
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/15/2007 1:35:41 PM | message detail
And I'm sure there are plenty of Nintendo fans who would vote Yuna over Luigi and Ganondorf!
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 1:35:58 PM | message detail
...which is what I'm expecting in Luigi/Ganon btw, that's why I'm taking MC > Yuna. I really don't think the SFF is going to sway heavily in either direction for Luigi/Ganon (if it did it would be for Luigi), which is why I'm kinda surprised by all the Ganon 1st place people. I can understand if you think he's finishing better than Luigi, but is he really capable of SFFing him? 'cause I sure as hell don't think he is. Ganon's best possible finish in my mind is 2nd, and Luigi's is 1st, but I don't think either of them are going to place.

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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 1:37:07 PM | message detail
Mega Man vs. Diablo/KOS-MOS/Arthas
KOS-MOS. Two PC characters from the same company ftl.

Mario vs. Big Boss/Pac-Man/Wander
Wander is nothing and Pac-Man will be SFF'd by Mario, so Big Boss.

Magus vs. Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix Wright
Bomberman is the safest bet, sadly.

Link vs. Agent J/Bidoof/Edgeworth
I'm leaning toward Bidoof; the joke votes will matter more in a four-way.

Zero vs. HK-47/Jak/Lloyd Irving
Flip a three-sided coin.

Luigi vs. Mudkip/Pit/Tingle
Mudkip for the joke votes.

Ganondorf vs. Ratchet/Thrall/Vergil
Vergil. Haven't thought about this one too much; Ratchet and Thrall just seem so weak.

Dante vs. Amaterasu/Little Mac/Matt
Little Mac or Amaterasu, take your pick.

Kirby vs. L-Block/Laharl/Nathan Hale
L-Block seems like the safest bet. (I can't believe I just typed that.)

Solid Snake vs. Nightmare/Vyse/Rayman
Vyse; I don't buy the Nightmare hype.
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