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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:58:01 AM | message detail
I just see the average Nintendo fan choosing Peach over Fox as well

why is that? I just can't see Peach having hardcore fans.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 11:58:17 AM | message detail
Usually if Kirby, the weaker character avoids SFF then Kirby would have trouble SFF someone weaker than him.

That makes no sense. If you avoid SFF, then you would have trouble SFFing somebody else? So if Sephiroth avoids SFF against Cloud, then that means that he would have trouble SFFing Aeris then?
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 11:59:16 AM | message detail
From yoshifan823
Samus over Midna over Scorpion? Easy? No. Midna is gonna get raped by Samus, cause Samus is gonna steal both casuals and Ninty fans. Scorp has the X-Box/PS2 crowd. Scorp finishes second in the first round, but beats Midna in the second.

Samus doesn't win SFF. Ever.
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voltch | Posted 8/15/2007 12:00:18 PM | message detail
damn at squall/aeris/sora,
they could k.o each other out but between sora and aeris it's a little tough.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:00:59 PM | message detail
Remember what Aeris did to Sora in 2003? Squall and Aeris win that easily,
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ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 12:01:05 PM | message detail
Something else I've been wondering, everyone seems to be dismissing Peach in the second round because she does terribly in polls involving other Mario characters, but has she ever been in a poll with non-Mario Nintendo characters?

I think it's not so much to do with the "content" of the poll as much as it is thinking that Peach is going to suck it up in any multi poll like this. It requires people to actually have Peach as a favorite over a number of other much more likable, substantial, characters. I think Peach is gonna end up falling apart in that poll, personally.

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Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:03:23 PM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

I currently have Knuckles, but I've already switched a few times.

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

Frog. Scorpion is tempting, though.

3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

Falcon. I think Fox might be a bit stronger than people are willing to admit.

4.) Can Bomberman get second under Magus?

That's what I have, but Phoenix does have a hardcore (but small) fanbase. I just don't trust anything that can't beat Gordon Freeman.

5.) For the love of God, will Bidoof actually get second under Link?

Yep.

6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

Even without considering MGS4, Raiden could probably beat out Simon.

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

Cult Xbox RPG vs. cult Gamecube RPG... when in doubt, go with Nintendo.

8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

After seeing what he did to Crono... yes, most definitely.

9.) Will Ada get second past Frank West?

Who's Frank West, again? Yeah, she can.

10.) L-Block v. Laharl...Epic.

Something even more epic: Laharl has been in more contests than Tifa. XD

11.) Kirby beating out DK = Lock?

Of course.

12.) Will Duke Nukem actually make it below Sonic...?

If by below Sonic, you mean below Ike and Gordon Freeman, then yes.
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voltch | Posted 8/15/2007 12:05:50 PM | message detail
howver since 2003 sora has gotten stronger and aeris skipped a few battles.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:09:14 PM | message detail
I think Ocelot would naturally do better than Jill in a multi-option setting, but the fact that Cloud is there disturbs me... I do have Jill for now... at least I could also lean on Jill possibly being a bit stronger than she used to be.

When Sora/Aeris/Squall/(Lara?) rolls around... Squall > Sora > Aeris will be ideal, right? But, when I think about it... it might not be so simple. It will be interestisng to see.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:10:35 PM | message detail
Remember what Aeris did to Sora in 2003? Squall and Aeris win that easily,

Sora's gotten a new game since then.

not like I have Aeris going that far, anyway.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:11:51 PM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

Yoshi. This is classic Nintendo vs. SEGA. Also, Knuckles has got 40% consistently on Snake, BEFORE Snake had his massive popularity surge. Yoshi got 43% on Snake AFTER this surge.


2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

I think I've been overrating Midna this entire contest, but I'm afraid of overrating Scorpion too. I ended up choposing Scorpion because I think Samus is going to steal a nice portion of Midna's votes (or she may just NOT be that popular....). I do have Midna > Scorp in the first round though. But I may change that. Or maybe it's just TP hype.


3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

I decided to do a weird thing here. I have Fox > Wario in round 1. But I have Seph > Wario in round 2. With 3 Nintendo characters in the first round, SFFing each other, I think it's close to very hard to predict. I'm really not sure who to pick higher in Fox vs Wario. It has the aura of 2 new characters. Tough to judge. When you add Meta Knight or Peach, with Seph... well... I don't know WHAT it means, but I just... yeah I really have no idea.

4.) Can Bomberman get second under Magus?

This is the safe pick. People have been talking about how he might do well if he ever came back... his numbers actually aren't too bad. 35 on Squall is decent enough for someone like Bomberman. Now, Phoenix... Well... maybe his new game CAN help... and maybe with more releases of the first game, he'll get more popularity... but he will always be the guy who LOST to Gordon Freeman. At the moment though, I have my faith in Phoenix.

5.) For the love of God, will Bidoof actually get second under Link?

No. Haven't we learned our lesson with Pikachu? GameFAQs main page does not like voting for Pokemon, the characters. I can't believe I'm actually using this example, but Nidoran. She's much more recognizable than Bidoof is. Bidoof is nothing more than a joke, and no one even cares that much about Bidoof outside Board 8. Nidoran would have a much better chance, and even she wouldn't place here. The only people who really like Bidoof are Board 8ers. 95% of his votes will be B8. And look at Edgey. GameFAQers who like PW and D/P I THINK would vote for Edgey... at least, that's my guess. While Bidoof may be more well known than Edgey outside GameFAQs, he's a ****ing poop. He'd be less popular than Pikachu.

The only thing to take interesting note of here is that J, Bidoof, and Miles are going to have about 3% of the votes to work with. When there are THAT few votes to take account of, weirder things can happen . The fact that they're all facing Link means the same also... that a lot of weird things can happen... but without that, Miles should be the strongest anyway...



6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

I considered this. My friend talked me out of it. Not being in contests has hurt his overall site popularity. But we have no REAL judge of Raiden, while no GOOD judge of Simon (screw 2k2). So these to me are 2 new characters. Raiden has the MGS advantage though, which I think boosts him to victory here. Crono shouldn't make a huge difference here, but it's interesting to note that Crono was the one Simon lost to in 2k2 (23.22%).

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

Lloyd, I think. He may be from ToS, whose popularity has dropped off (was it ever up that high?), but he is the HERO of ToS, and the most recognizable face. HK-47, well he bombed vs. Sora, but Lloyd bombed vs. Zero. Both did pretty badly in their last apperances, but I think Lloyd will take this on hero factor.


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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:11:59 PM | message detail
8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

This is a FUN division. Yuna is strong. A lot stronger than I think we've made her out to be. 60% on Chunny and 43% on Zelda. I think Alucard is going to surprise though. Master Chief will be stronger, but so will Yuna, undoubtedly. I also think Alucard is a lot stronger than Sub-Zero. So I'm going to stick with Yuna and Alucard making it to thee final 4 of that division, though I'm not sure about the order. Either way, Ganondorf and Luigi advance, after Luigi's stellar performance last year.

9.) Will Ada get second past Frank West?

Frank West will get last.

10.) L-Block v. Laharl...Epic.

Roll some dice. Good luck. I have Laharl for now, because I'm keep saying "Gah he has to win he's REAL. People vote for REAL people...." But then one thought keeps entering my mind......... "IT'S A ****ING HAND".

If Master Hand can beat Kuja, why can't L-Block beat Laharl? And now I'm stuck.

11.) Kirby beating out DK = Lock?

Yes. I'm certain. Would you take DK over Tidus? Even if you answered Yes to that, cmon... Kirby's a beast.

12.) Will Duke Nukem actually make it below Sonic...?

Subby will be weaker than last year........ but not THAT much weaker.... It's funny though, because if Duke did make it there, he'd probably go one more round and beat Ike and Gordon.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:12:41 PM | message detail
Really? Sora's gotten a new game? You mean the same game that Aeris got too? Plus Aeris got AC. But it doesn't matter. Aeris might not be able to double Sora nowadays but she could at least 60-40 him.

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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:14:54 PM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

Knux... though I'm still torn.

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

Scorpion, know it's not gonna be the favorite choice, but suck it.

3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

***Wario/Falcon, who'll be below Fox? Wario.

4.) Can Bomberman get second under Magus?

Yes!

5.) For the love of God, will Bidoof actually get second under Link?

Unfortunately....

6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

AWW HELL NAW

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

God will come down from the heavens, light up a massive blunt, and we'll all get high and forget the day of this match.

8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

Oh he can, and he will ! !

9.) Will Ada get second past Frank West?

Eh... doubt it, but it's certainly possible.

10.) L-Block v. Laharl...Epic.

L-Block is totally kicking Laharl's ass.

11.) Kirby beating out DK = Lock?

Lock = Lock?

12.) Will Duke Nukem actually make it below Sonic...?

lol no

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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 12:15:26 PM | message detail
Eh, on second thought, maybe I'll switch to Scorpion in Scorpion/Midna...not because of SFF, but because I hate putting faith in newcomers.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/15/2007 12:16:44 PM | message detail
Picking Thrall or Vergil I'm finding tough.

Thrall will get a Warcraft orc picture, that tips the scales for me.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 12:16:48 PM | message detail
Why is Jak being completely counted out? He didn't perform that bad against Ness, who is also underrated in the 2k4 stats...
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 12:17:32 PM | message detail
Raiden's going to be pretty tough, I think. We have absolutely no way to properly read him, and anyone who watched the MGS4 trailer is gonna be like "OMFG RAIDEN"

Now that's not gonna really do all that MUCH, but still.

Hopefully he'll manage to avoid drowning.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/15/2007 12:17:34 PM | message detail
Why is Jak being completely counted out? He didn't perform that bad against Ness, who is also underrated in the 2k4 stats...

Non-Nintendo platforming characters never perform well in these contests.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:19:20 PM | message detail
Really? Sora's gotten a new game? You mean the same game that Aeris got too? Plus Aeris got AC. But it doesn't matter. Aeris might not be able to double Sora nowadays but she could at least 60-40 him.

I doubt that with Sora being a good bit above her.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 12:19:49 PM | message detail
How about Axel/Frog? CT is declining, and Frog only barely defeated pre-KH2 Riku in '05.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:21:18 PM | message detail
Raiden > Belmont. I never really had trouble picking Raiden here.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 12:21:26 PM | message detail
People picking Sora over Aeris are hilarious for many reasons. I doubt Sora gets much of anything after Squall and Aeris syphon everything from his face.

How about Axel/Frog? CT is declining, and Frog only barely defeated pre-KH2 Riku in '05.

Frog's still a very recognizable character from CT, which has a pretty loyal fanbase. and Axel isn't really that memorable, in my opinion...


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This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 12:21:27 PM | message detail
Non-Nintendo platforming characters never perform well in these contests.

Really? Looks to be around the same level as Lloyd and HK-47 by what I'm looking at...
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:21:43 PM | message detail
Why is Jak being completely counted out? He didn't perform that bad against Ness, who is also underrated in the 2k4 stats...

Personally, I have Jak coming in second, there's just no point in me arguing about it, because I have no ****ing clue as to who is walking out of that one alive.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:22:14 PM | message detail
Anyone in here thinking of doing the BOP this year?
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:22:23 PM | message detail
How about Axel/Frog? CT is declining, and Frog only barely defeated pre-KH2 Riku in '05.

Here's a shocker. Riku >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Axel.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:22:24 PM | message detail
How about Axel/Frog? CT is declining, and Frog only barely defeated pre-KH2 Riku in '05.

pretty underrated match, but hey, whichever gets the non-Samus votes. Frog seems to be the safe pick, though, but is KH more hardcore?
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:22:48 PM | message detail
Frog got 30% on Samus, and Axel didn't manage that on a weakened Mega Man. Frog should pull it out. Frog/Scorpion is still giving me headaches though, and if Midna turns out to be a beast instead of a bust, that further complicates things.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 12:24:18 PM | message detail
JESUS CHRIST THIS CONTEST IS SO ****ING WHACKY. I AM NOT SURE, AND I DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT ANYTHING.

Augh.

Except for Sephiroth winning all of his fourpacks with ease. That I'm sure of. (til douchebags, that is.)
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:24:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
emanresU weN | Posted 8/15/2007 12:24:58 PM | message detail
Cult Xbox RPG

How dare you call KOTOR a cult Xbox RPG! Shame on you. Lloyd still wins though.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 12:26:03 PM | message detail
From Gyratin****andma
How about Axel/Frog? CT is declining, and Frog only barely defeated pre-KH2 Riku in '05.

Here's a shocker. Riku >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Axel.


Axel is fairly close to pre-KH2 Riku in lol x-stats, though. Riku was much more powerful in 06 than in 05. Not saying I'd stake my life on Frog having fallen that far, but it's an intriguing possibility.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:26:47 PM | message detail
Frog seems to be the safe pick, though, but is KH more hardcore?

...

KH is one of the most casual series on the site. It's definitely more casual than CT.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:29:45 PM | message detail
Even if you just go straight by the x-stats, Riku's still comes out ahead, the further you go into it, the more and more impressive Riku ends up looking. And as we all know, Frog beat Riku then, there's really no reason to think Axel would be on that level, unless Frog dropped a significant amount.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:30:03 PM | message detail
KH is one of the most casual series on the site. It's definitely more casual than CT.

that's not what I meant.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:30:10 PM | message detail
By the way, Frog is underrated in 2K5 thanks to Samus/Mario, which raises him and Riku up even further, just thought I'd throw that in there.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:33:05 PM | message detail
Frog beat Riku before KH2, though. then got 30% on Samus which puts him around DK's area. add in the decline and a four way poll and it doesn't make me too confident.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/15/2007 12:33:47 PM | message detail
30% on Samus > 30% on Megaman

I guess it just comes down to whether you think Frog dropped enough. I don't think it's going to be that significant. Especially since he won't be needing to get too many votes. He's only after 2nd place in a poll of 4 people after all. That's probably easier for a niche character like Frog than it is for him in a one-on-one poll
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 12:33:53 PM | message detail
Ah yes, I forgot that Frog was one of the characters affected by Samus's meltdown against Mario. Yeah, I suppose it's unlikely that Frog has fallen that far.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:34:39 PM | message detail
Here's an interesting question:

We all know that MC overperforms on just about everyone stronger than him...but what about characters like Link and Mario? I mean, we all saw what happened in the series contest when Warcraft tried to rally against Mario. Would MC's hardcore fanbase evaporate against such widely loved opposition?
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 12:37:58 PM | message detail
MC v. Mario =/= Halo v. Mario Series

Halo would get it's ass shattered into oblivion, while MC would hold up pretty nicely, possibly even getting his best x-stat value to date.

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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 12:39:52 PM | message detail
Uh, it could work either way. I personally think the series would hold up better than Master Chief as a character. Not everyone who is a Halo fan cares about Master Chief as much...
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:40:22 PM | message detail
I actually have HK-47 beating Lloyd for second place in Zero's pack. That's totally possible right?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:43:16 PM | message detail
Think about it though. ToS is pretty cult. KOTOR is pretty popular, and I'm thinking the past Xbox hate isn't going to influence a game like KOTOR or it's cast too much.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:46:26 PM | message detail
I actually have HK-47 beating Lloyd for second place in Zero's pack. That's totally possible right?

I have Lloyd, but now that I think about it, HK isn't a bad upset pick. KotOR doesn't have a very large or vocal fanbase on this site, but every KotOR fan loves the hell out of HK-47. No exceptions.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:47:18 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Lloyd or Jak wins that, and Jak seems to lean on me more because I can picture non-Zero fans voting for him.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 12:48:06 PM | message detail
I have Lloyd, but now that I think about it, HK isn't a bad upset pick. KotOR doesn't have a very large or vocal fanbase on this site, but every KotOR fan loves the hell out of HK-47. No exceptions.

Canderous >>> HK-47
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:48:49 PM | message detail
Whether it turns out good for me, I just cannot put Lloyd over HK-47 in good conscience. It's against my gaming tastes. And Jak I have no reason to see why he could ever get second place.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:49:07 PM | message detail
My name is freakin' ToS, and I've got HK-47. Eventually, you have to think about this: Cult GC game v. popular Xbox game.

Now, that could go either way, but the Xbox game is STAR WARS. That's the boost nobody's talking about.
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