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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:35:24 AM | message detail
well if he had a close match with Frog, he's pretty much around Ness' area at the least.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:39:44 AM | message detail
Ocelot/Jill is tough. Obviously Ocelot wins in a direct matchup but as we saw from Seph/Liquid, Cloud might take away Ocelots support. I still went with Ocelot though
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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2007 10:41:58 AM | message detail
I have Jill, but it's hard to say how much her stock has fallen since she wasn't in RE4.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:42:08 AM | message detail
Ocelot obviously wins...? Pac-Man obviously beats Peach?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:49:51 AM | message detail
Obviously Ocelot wins in a direct matchup

uh, no.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 10:52:51 AM | message detail
1) Anybody think Shadow could sneak past Auron and Fenix to advance alongside Cloud?
2) Can Phoenix Wright actually win a match?
3) Will Tingle overcome Pit and Mudkip...
4) ...and how badly would Ganon embarrass him in the next round?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
voltch | Posted 8/15/2007 10:57:21 AM | message detail
jesus christ how the hell are we supposed to get a perfect score this time around.
i haven't even heard of some of these guys.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 10:57:58 AM | message detail
Also, while we're talking about the A/N/L/Z four-pack...not only is Ness the sole Nintendo character, but it should also be kept in mind that the other three's main games are on the PS1 as well as them each only really being known for one game compared to Ness's two or three.

Alucard and Liquid do have a port/remake on different systems that should probably carry them over Zidane if nothing else, but picking between Alucard and Liquid is a crapshoot from there.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:59:28 AM | message detail
1) Did Bowser spontaneously combust? I'd say Ryu has a better shot than Shadow, and there's not much there for him either.
2) Absolutely!
3) I can't bring myself to pick Tingle (I went with Pit), but...
4) ...Ganondorf/Luigi/Tingle/?(Vergil) would end very badly for Tingle. It's hard to guess percentages, but I'd be thoroughly surprised if he managed 10%.
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Mustache...and green...
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:02:07 AM | message detail
meh, I got Bomberman in that Phoenix one. I think he has enough from that Live stuff.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 11:02:32 AM | message detail
2) Can Phoenix Wright actually win a match?

Throw Phoenix Wright in Edgeworth's spot and I would have taken him to escape out of there (I have Edgeworth losing, at least Phoenix Wright has his game's name recognition). But Phoenix is in a tough spot... Bomberman has gotten pretty visible among the Xbox fanbase, and Magus won't dominate enough votes for the PW hardcore fanbase to help him as much...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 11:03:02 AM | message detail
This contest is frickin' awesome. I might actually pay attention to the stats topic this time around. It's just as unpredictable as the good ol' days.
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GANON1025 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:04:01 AM | message detail
I can't really see Bomberman being all that strong. I know that Phoenix bombed against GF, but I can't see Bombderman doing any better.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 11:08:18 AM | message detail
Bomberman got 42% against Jill at her strongest, 35% against Alucard at his strongest, and 35% against Squall. You think he can't outdo Phoenix Wright's 42% on Gordon Freeman?
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/15/2007 11:14:33 AM | message detail
Why is everyone putting so much stock in Kratos?

It seems everyone is in agreement with Kratos > DK in round one, but why not DK > Kratos?

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*watches*
o_o
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:15:39 AM | message detail
Because Kratos had a new game.
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smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 11:21:26 AM | message detail
Because Kratos has a new game, and because DK sucks anyway.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:22:09 AM | message detail
I have DK > Kratos in round one. I see Kratos getting a boost, but people are underestimating Donkey Kong. Though in round 2 I have Kratos winning that match because DK and Kirby SFF each other (look at the low votals in Kirby's matches with Bowser and Luigi).
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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:25:00 AM | message detail
DK has Marth to split votes with. I'd take Kratos over DK straight up, and with one of the most used SSBM characters there to siphon some votes from DK, he's definitely getting second.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:27:02 AM | message detail
I don't put DK over Kratos first in anything.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:27:17 AM | message detail
I have DK > Kratos without much of a second thought... I don't think Kratos could come as close as DK did to Master Chief... at least not in that year... even now, where Chief could be weaker from..... well whatever it is or stronger from Halo 3 support.... I still can't see Kratos scoring more than 45% on Chiefy.


HOWEVER

When we have Kirby/DK/Kratos/*Whoever the 4th is*, there's no way DK gets in there. That will be Kirby, followed by Kratos. I think Kirby is going to SFF DK pretty hard... simply because I think that people just like Kirby a lot more than DK when comparing Nintendo characters, whereas something like Luigi and Yoshi have always been sort of close.

So, DK > Kratos > Marth

But, Kirby > Kratos > DK.


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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:28:33 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Kratos would get far more than 45% on Master Chief if he got 43% on Ryu.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/15/2007 11:29:43 AM | message detail
Yeah, when you add Kirby and whatever else, DK is pretty much toast.

___
*watches*
o_o
voltch | Posted 8/15/2007 11:31:23 AM | message detail
the following opening fourpacks have me stumped

Kefka
Marcus Fenix
Tom Nook
Zelos Wilder

Big Boss
Mario
Pac-Man
Wander

Bomberman
Crash Bandicoot
Phoenix Wright
Magus

Luigi
Mudkip
Pit
Tingle

Master Chief
PaRappa
Tommy Vercetti
Yuna

Amaterasu
Dante
Little Mac
Matt (Wii Sports)

Ada Wong
Balthier Bunansa
Frank West
Jade Curtiss

Duke Nukem
Ike
Gordon Freeman
Guybrush Threepwood

it's easy for the first character but the second spot is bothering the hell out of me.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:32:59 AM | message detail
I don't see Kirby SFF DK too badly. While Kirby does share a fanbase with other Nintendo characters, which explains the low votals in Kirby/Bowser and Kirby/Luigi, the fanbase split was really even. If that four pack had a stronger character like Alucard I could see him upsetting both Kirby and DK.
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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:34:18 AM | message detail
Ryu might have overperformed on Kratos. I could say the same for DK, but DK seems to have some kind of weird thing with close matches.

I can't also see any reason for Ryu to get any stronger or even stay that consistent... He may have got 42% on Mega Man, but this is a clearly weakening Mega Man....

At this point, I would pick Chief over Ryu with about 52 or 53%....



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Wigs... The Other OTHER White Meat: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:34:59 AM | message detail
Er make that Kratos overperformed on Ryu.


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Wigs... The Other OTHER White Meat: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 11:36:14 AM | message detail
Kefka
Marcus Fenix
Tom Nook
Zelos Wilder

Why would that have you stumped? Zelos is from a now old RPG and will be fodder, and even if Nook was announced in Brawl tomorrow, he'd be as strong as, what, Captain Falcon? And I'd take Kefka and Fenix to beat him easily. The only tricky bit is deciding which of Kefka and Fenix to put as #1.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 11:36:29 AM | message detail
I don't see Kirby SFF DK too badly. While Kirby does share a fanbase with other Nintendo characters, which explains the low votals in Kirby/Bowser and Kirby/Luigi, the fanbase split was really even. If that four pack had a stronger character like Alucard I could see him upsetting both Kirby and DK.

Kirby avoided SFF in the presence of stronger characters in those instances. He wasn't supposed to gain SFF in those instances, and from how you look at it, he might have still gained SFF from a stronger character in Bowser. At any rate, nothing from those two matches indicates that he wouldn't be able to SFF Donkey Kong.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:37:08 AM | message detail
I still wouldn't consider Kratos lower than DK. Kratos has nobody to fight with in two of his first matches.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 11:37:31 AM | message detail
At this point, I would pick Chief over Ryu with about 52 or 53%....

Wait, so Sub-Zero and Ryu are on equal footing now? Really?
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LordOfDabu | Posted 8/15/2007 11:37:35 AM | message detail
I have Marth over DK. This site seems to love Smash as of late. The fact that everyone else is seemingly putting DK > Marth without a second thought is causing me to question myself though.
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Hello world
voltch | Posted 8/15/2007 11:37:53 AM | message detail
i always struggle with new characters.

but does ff6 advance boost kefka?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:38:32 AM | message detail
The question is....


Who takes second from that 8 pack? Kefka, Fenix, and the winner of Jill/Ocelot are all valid choices.

I would safely say not Kefka, as Cloud being in first would completely demolish any chance he has.... and I really can't see someone like Fenix doing it....

SO you guys better make sure you pick Jill/Ocelot right.


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Wigs... The Other OTHER White Meat: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:40:33 AM | message detail
This site seems to love Smash as of late.

yeah, it boosted Falcon to the fodder. Marth is likely equal at best. Donkey Kong has more than just smash, you know.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:41:06 AM | message detail
and I really can't see someone like Fenix doing it....

if anything, he has the best chance seeing he's the only xbox character in the whole group.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Kratos_42 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:41:07 AM | message detail
Alright, here's some matches to debate:

1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

4.) Can Bomberman get second under Magus?

5.) For the love of God, will Bidoof actually get second under Link?

6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

9.) Will Ada get second past Frank West?

10.) L-Block v. Laharl...Epic.

11.) Kirby beating out DK = Lock?

12.) Will Duke Nukem actually make it below Sonic...?
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:42:20 AM | message detail
At this point, I would pick Chief over Ryu with about 52 or 53%....

Wait, so Sub-Zero and Ryu are on equal footing now? Really?



Ryu's getting weaker... Subby is getting newfound support for never having shown his face in the contests until last year. There's no doubt that Subby did REALLY well last year because he was new to the contest and people wanted to see him do well. Like Ryu has, Subby will slip a bit this year.

Still, it's not he's gonna fall to Ike or Gordon >_>


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Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:43:48 AM | message detail
I just realised every character I nominated got in. That has to be some kind of record for me :P Including everyone in the Wario four pack!
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"Eet's game time..."
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:44:11 AM | message detail


if anything, he has the best chance seeing he's the only xbox character in the whole group.


Well, this is just personal opinion, but I think Fenix is going to bomb. Not so hard as to lose to Nook/Zelos. But hard enough such that he won't get that much higher than Kefka will with his SFF vs Cloud. Just a hunch, though.
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Wigs... The Other OTHER White Meat: ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~
Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 11:44:49 AM | message detail
Ryu's getting weaker... Subby is getting newfound support for never having shown his face in the contests until last year. There's no doubt that Subby did REALLY well last year because he was new to the contest and people wanted to see him do well. Like Ryu has, Subby will slip a bit this year.

you're still giving Master Chief far too much credit and also underestimating Kratos.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:44:54 AM | message detail
Kefka
Marcus Fenix
Tom Nook
Zelos Wilder


Kefka and Fenix take this though the order is questionable.

Big Boss
Mario
Pac-Man
Wander


Mario takes first and you must decided whether Mario will SFF Pac-Man enough to let Big Boss take the win.

Bomberman
Crash Bandicoot
Phoenix Wright
Magus


Magus takes first, Bomberman seems to be the safe choice, but the other two could take it.

Luigi
Mudkip
Pit
Tingle


Luigi takes first, second is really tough Tingle may be the safe choice, but could SSBB hype or an internet fad plus Pokemon be enough for the other two to steal the win?

Master Chief
PaRappa
Tommy Vercetti
Yuna


Master Chief and Yuna, TV could be a nice upset choice though.

Amaterasu
Dante
Little Mac
Matt (Wii Sports)


Dante takes first and I hav no idea on who'll take second.

Ada Wong
Balthier Bunansa
Frank West
Jade Curtiss


Balthier for first and Ada seems to be the favorite for second, but Frank could upset.

Duke Nukem
Ike
Gordon Freeman
Guybrush Threepwood


Freeman wins here and Duke comes in second unless you believe SSBB hype would bring Ike in second.

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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 11:45:55 AM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

Knuckles. We all saw what MM did to Yoshi, I can't really split the two but I think that may be the difference

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

I have Midna

3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

Fox

4.) Can Bomberman get second under Magus?

I have PW taking it, but Bomberman's a reasonable pick

5.) For the love of God, will Bidoof actually get second under Link?

I actually do have Bidoof in R2, yes

6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

That's a nasty choice. I took Raiden

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

I have Lloyd but I don't like it

8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

See sig, not going into that one again

9.) Will Ada get second past Frank West?

No

10.) L-Block v. Laharl...Epic.

Why couldn't they swap Laharl and CATS?

11.) Kirby beating out DK = Lock?

Lock.

12.) Will Duke Nukem actually make it below Sonic...?

Yeah, of course. He's Duke ****ing Nukem.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Halcyon26 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:48:47 AM | message detail
Something else I've been wondering, everyone seems to be dismissing Peach in the second round because she does terribly in polls involving other Mario characters, but has she ever been in a poll with non-Mario Nintendo characters?

I know Wario is from Mario, but I can't imagine Nintendo fans choosing Wario over Peach, which leaves Fox. I just see the average Nintendo fan choosing Peach over Fox as well, regardless of how she bombs when put up against other established Mario characters. She's not dealing with any of them here.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:49:24 AM | message detail
I honestly can't believe people are still arguing about Kratos Aurion. Everyone agrees Zelos has no chance in hell, and Scorpion is from friggin' Mortal Kombat. If anything, people should be arguing about who gets first, Midna or Scorp. Also, Kratos>DK so fast it's not even funny. GoW2, and the fact that DK bombs anywhere, it's so simple.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes...
smitelf | Posted 8/15/2007 11:49:44 AM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

This is the hardest match of the first division to predict because of that cursed '05 match. I'm still shrugging my shoulders.

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

Midna. Not even a tough one.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:52:08 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:52:28 AM | message detail
Kirby avoided SFF in the presence of stronger characters in those instances. He wasn't supposed to gain SFF in those instances, and from how you look at it, he might have still gained SFF from a stronger character in Bowser. At any rate, nothing from those two matches indicates that he wouldn't be able to SFF Donkey Kong.

Usually if Kirby, the weaker character avoids SFF then Kirby would have trouble SFF someone weaker than him. It seems like they have the same fanbase, but inside that fanbase there are about an equal amount of people that perfer Luigi to Kirby and Kirby to Luigi.
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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
ZFS | Posted 8/15/2007 11:52:43 AM | message detail
1.) Yoshi/Knuckles, who'll be below Mega Man?

Got Yoshi.

2.) Midna/Scorpion, who'll be below Samus?

Scorpion.

3.) Fox/Falcon, who'll be below Wario?

Fox -- above Wario.

6.) Can Simon beat Raiden?

Nah. That'd require some serious underestimation of Raiden, I think. He can not meet expectations and still get by Simon with no trouble.

7.) HK-47/Lloyd, WHO WILL WIN!?

Got HK-47.

8.) Can Master Chief use the Halo 3 boost to actually beat Yuna to Ganondorf?

Believe

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Believe
Kratos_42 | Posted 8/15/2007 11:56:08 AM | message detail
I swear, ZFS, you lead me wrong every match with that sig.

...>_>

*believes*
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
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