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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 449

UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/14/2007 10:49:30 PM | message detail
Two topics in one day? Sweeeeeet.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 10:50:25 PM | message detail
Damnit Snake > Link

>_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Applekidjosh | Posted 8/14/2007 10:50:54 PM | message detail
lol tifa
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AKJ. The Cream of Super Robot Wars fanboyism. FC is 2706 8171 9420 for Diamond
"my shoulder wants to explode and yet i feel like everyone has a big smiley face painted on their dongs" - Ed Bellis
Janus5000 | Posted 8/14/2007 10:51:44 PM | message detail
Worthy > Bidoof
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http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
IT'S SOME KIND OF A TEXAS PSYCHOBILLY FREAKOUT THAT'S WHAT IT IS
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/14/2007 10:52:26 PM | message detail
God, I can't wait to see the controversy over who makes the 500th one. -___-'
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I've got balls of steel. Badges: 6 The bell tolls for you.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Draco1214 | Posted 8/14/2007 10:54:57 PM | message detail
Laharl > L-Block
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 12:27:47 AM | message detail
Alucard > Liquid > Ness > Zidane
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Nominate Serge.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:52:15 AM | message detail
Big Boss beats out Pac-Man without too much of a sweat.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 8/15/2007 2:05:15 AM | message detail
Master Chief > Link.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Gaddswell | Posted 8/15/2007 2:11:08 AM | message detail
Pikachu > Vivi > Tidus
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sig
Lucid Faia | Posted 8/15/2007 2:12:14 AM | message detail
I'll repost this here.

Lucid's Three Keys to a Winning Bracket

1. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.
2. Never trust Final Fantasy IX. (i.e. Not Robotnik)
3. You must pick against 95% of the board at least once.

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Rebel. Revolutionary. Disharmonious.
UNMUTUAL.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 2:35:07 AM | message detail
2. Never trust Final Fantasy IX. (i.e. Not Robotnik)

So, you're one of the ones who went with Ridley > Vivi, then?
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Heroic Viktor | Posted 8/15/2007 4:53:36 AM | message detail
Leon in the Elite Eight.
Snake takes 2nd.
FFXII craps the bed.

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Trivia: Two Comps and a Tnote
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:22:37 AM | message detail
Ridley over Vivi makes sense, actually. If Ridley gets announced on the SSBB site, he might actually be able to take second there. He'll need good timing, though.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 8:23:32 AM | message detail
Ganon > Yuna
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:25:11 AM | message detail
My bracket depends on Sakurai announcing Ridley, and quick :P
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"Eet's game time..."
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:38:21 AM | message detail
I've always wanted to know, Lightning, is that a go! team reference?

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mmm feel the vibration baby
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:40:30 AM | message detail
Ridley over Vivi makes sense, actually. If Ridley gets announced on the SSBB site, he might actually be able to take second there. He'll need good timing, though.

Ridley makes sense about as well as a kid with down syndrome. Not a whole god damn lot. Diablo kicked Ridley's ass, Vivi took down DK. DK is most definitely > Diablo. There's no significant overlap with Leon there, if anything he'd take away more of Ridley's votes than Vivi's, not that I really think either one is going to be significant.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:40:40 AM | message detail
Here's an important fourpack that people aren't talking about: Link/Mario/Crono/Sephiroth. Link obviously wins, but who takes second? Mario's last due to Link SFF, but we've yet to really see how Crono holds up to SFF. He does seem to have one of the most dedicated fanbases on the site. Enough to beat out Sephiroth with no Cloud there? This is really making me think.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:41:55 AM | message detail
that's if Crono even makes it that far.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 8:42:14 AM | message detail
Sephiroth takes the second spot without much trouble.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:42:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm still not sold on Crono > Vincent. But if Crono does get past Vincent, there's no way he's getting past Seph.
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mmm feel the vibration baby
Master Moltar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:43:30 AM | message detail
that's if Crono even makes it that far

Truth!!

And I thought a night of sleep would make choosing the winners of the Div 5 and 6 groups easier, but nope.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting the bracket!
The Analysis Crew...believe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:46:09 AM | message detail
I don't know if anyone else has pointed it out yet, but I'm sure Lopen would be rightfully angry at Raiden's tooltip description.

Snake's partner?

Pshaw, I say.
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hi
Topic Protector | Posted 8/15/2007 8:50:19 AM | message detail
As a big Crono fan, I'd be overjoyed if he made it far enough to get impaled by Seph.

Otherwise, I just can't buy the Ridley hype. Vivi has both casual and FF appeal. He won't make waves in this format, but he won't go down to Ridley, who's "appearance" in SSBB is likely to be hopelessly limited.

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*Stamps*
is Redtooth
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:51:48 AM | message detail
Vincent/Crono/Zero trio is really driving me nuts. what if Vincent and Crono split bad enough to make even Zero win?
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:52:18 AM | message detail
Besides, Vivi can't be losing to Ridley when he's making it to Round 3 <_<
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:54:57 AM | message detail
also, something tells me Scorpion > Kratos Auron isn't a lock. Scorpion still has to contend with Agent 47. yes, I know that sounds dumb but Kratos is just a lone RPG cult character.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 8:56:04 AM | message detail
Vincent/Crono/Zero trio is really driving me nuts. what if Vincent and Crono split bad enough to make even Zero win?

Zero stunk last year, there's no way a N9 member and a contender for the clear #10 are beating each other up enough to let Zero through.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:58:19 AM | message detail
I think as long as Zero breaks 40% on both in a direct match-up, he at least has a chance to go through if they split bad enough (IE: Cloud vs Sephiroth)
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/15/2007 9:12:22 AM | message detail
also, something tells me Scorpion > Kratos Auron isn't a lock. Scorpion still has to contend with Agent 47. yes, I know that sounds dumb but Kratos is just a lone RPG cult character.

Agent 47 will finish last in that four-pack, even with his movie coming up in October. His competition is just too stiff.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 9:44:06 AM | message detail
Sorry, but Crono isn't losing to Vincent and/or Zero anytime soon. He's decreasing sure but not that much.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 9:54:11 AM | message detail
It's time for a little lol x-stats fun!

Liquid Snake (2004c) VS Alucard (2006c)

Liquid Snake has a strength of 32.10.
Alucard has a strength of 24.69.

Liquid Snake wins with 61.54% of the vote!
A win of 22,776 with 98,667 total votes cast.

Liquid Snake (2004c raw) VS Alucard (2006c raw)

Liquid Snake has a strength of 28.89.
Alucard has a strength of 24.69.

Liquid Snake wins with 57.27% of the vote!
A win of 14,521 with 99,882 total votes cast.

Not too much of a difference here...but is Alucard really going to keep decreasing, or is he going to turn into an anomaly of sorts? Also of noting is Liquid losing 45.14 to Alucards 54.86% when you compare Liquid's Villain stats to Alucard's 05 stats. Now let's get Ness into the mix shall we?

Ness (2005c) VS Alucard (2006c)

Ness has a strength of 20.53.
Alucard has a strength of 24.69.

Alucard wins with 58.42% of the vote!
A win of 17,828 with 105,811 total votes cast.

Liquid Snake (2004c) VS Ness (2005c)

Liquid Snake has a strength of 32.10.
Ness has a strength of 20.53.

Liquid Snake wins with 68.02% of the vote!
A win of 32,029 with 88,862 total votes cast.

When you make the stats raw, things just keep going wrong for Ness too. So according to the x-stats, Ness is in a hell of a lot of trouble.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 9:56:03 AM | message detail
Liquid was behind Frog in 2004 (check his Villain Contest stats to see a better approximation of his true strength) and we've never had a reliable number on Ness thanks to getting the crap end of the SFF stick every year.
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/15/2007 10:00:29 AM | message detail
I have no clue how that match will go, but I ended up with Ness as the winner and Alucard as the runner up.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:03:09 AM | message detail
Agent 47 will finish last in that four-pack, even with his movie coming up in October. His competition is just too stiff.

I didn't mean Agent 47 winning, I meant sucking up Scorpion's casual votes he would receive otherwise.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:04:14 AM | message detail
Ness is likely around 23% anyway. some of you people really need to stop putting 100% faith in the x-stats.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 10:04:46 AM | message detail
I was just sort of playing Devil's Advocate with the stats m'self.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:05:54 AM | message detail
also, I think Ness easily wins that fourpack; but in terms of runner-up, I'm split on all three. I'm leaning towards Liquid Snake however and I have no real reason why.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 10:09:01 AM | message detail
I think as long as Zero breaks 40% on both in a direct match-up, he at least has a chance to go through if they split bad enough (IE: Cloud vs Sephiroth)

I wish, but all fanboyism aside, you're crazy if you think Link won't affect Zero's strength...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:09:34 AM | message detail
Alucard's fourpack is tearing me up. It all comes down to has the bigger, more devoted following here. Alucard seems like the safe pick here, but Ness has a realistic chance at coming first here. He's the only Nintendo character here. Couple that with the possibility of there being a fanbase overlap between Alucard and Liquid (possibly Zidane, too, all three of them had their shining moments in PS1 games), and Ness might be able to sneak out the win. There's also the possibility, however, that since Ness really does get most of his support from the SSB fans, most might not be all that faithful to him and would abandon him for any of the other three choices. This leaves Ness out in the cold with only the cult of Earthbound. Now, I love Earthbound and all, but no way it competes with the followings of MGS and Castlevania.

Argh.
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
outback | Posted 8/15/2007 10:12:50 AM | message detail
Despite Ness's SSB/M/BB appearance,s I still think that the casual appeal that both Liquid and Alucard hold combined with the popularity of both their series make it likely that BOTH of them beat Ness.
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NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:14:58 AM | message detail
Alucard has casual appeal?
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:16:06 AM | message detail
It's the fact that Ness is the only Nintendo character in that fourpack that bothers me.
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 10:16:07 AM | message detail
Ness through SSB draws more casual appeal than either of them...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 10:18:37 AM | message detail
yeah, I put SSB as a serious factor in a poll like this. not only does Ness arleady have a cult fanbase, but he has the Nintendo draw as well.

I'm just fighting between Liquid and Alucard really.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/15/2007 10:21:16 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
outback | Posted 8/15/2007 10:27:59 AM | message detail
Alucard's a freaking vampire, that's how he has casual appeal.
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NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif
Radix | Posted 8/15/2007 10:34:32 AM | message detail
Wasn't there talk at some point about FF/MGS SFF or some such? Which would mean there's no good reading on Liquid
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
Draco1214 | Posted 8/15/2007 10:34:58 AM | message detail
What do you guys think about Jill/Ocelot?
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
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