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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 448

Halcyon26 | Posted 8/14/2007 10:28:31 PM | message detail
that Alucard four-pack has me stumped but I predict Ness coming out on top just because he's the only guy that doesn't share a fanbase with them. or at least gets second.

Yep. Similar logic has me putting Pikachu into the sweet 16.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/14/2007 10:30:06 PM | message detail
Mewtwo >>>> Nidoran, Samus >> Bowser and Toad, we've seen Bowser 60-40 Ryu when it should have been a close match, Toad will affect Bowser more than Toad will affect Mewtwo, and Nidoran would statistically be expected to avoid a tripling from Bowser one-on-one. If Samus can't hurt Nidoran, Bowser or Toad can't do much more and Mewtwo could power through to overcome Ryu -- Mewtwo's probably getting over 25% anyway...

...or perhaps Mewtwo's firm fanbase simply lets Ryu overcome Bowser and lets those two advance. Either way, Mewtwo is a talking point for this match, of that I'm certain. I'm gonna chance it on him, but I think it's hard to imagine a Bowser > Ryu situation over a Bowser > Mewtwo or a Ryu > Bowser situation...and considering Bowser 60-40'd Ryu while Pokemon D/P is out during Nintendo's new reign on GameFAQs, again, I'm taking my chances.
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ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/14/2007 10:32:12 PM | message detail
Look, what do you expect Bowser/Mewtwo to look like head-to-head? If it's not closer than 60/40, I don't know why you're talking about Ryu getting hurt worse.
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Yesmar | Posted 8/14/2007 10:32:43 PM | message detail
What duos to you guys have advancing two rounds together?

I have:

Cloud/Ocelot (1st and 2nd)
Master Chief/Yuna (1st and 2nd)
Vivi/Leon (1st and 2nd)
Sonic/Sub-Zero (1st and 2nd)
Link/Vincent (2nd and 3rd)
Snake/Sonic (4th and 5th)
Link/Cloud (5th and 6th)
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Twisted Misters: 2007 World Series of Pop Culture Champions!!!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 10:37:29 PM | message detail
Some people are telling me Ike > Gordon...

Come on. That just sounds wrong. SSBB hype can only carry you so far.
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/14/2007 10:38:10 PM | message detail
I've got Gordon and Duke advancing, personally. Ike can finish second, but no higher, really.
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Nominate Serge.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/14/2007 10:40:09 PM | message detail
I'm just really in awe at this bracket. Nothing this unpredictable since the games contest.

People are going to spend 2 and a half weeks arguing this based off nothing, and they're going to look like fools. lol... We won't have a perfect bracket halfway through the first round./
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 10:40:13 PM | message detail
Ok Duke winning anything is just wrong too though man.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/14/2007 10:40:25 PM | message detail
Yesmar: I fold. =P


Look, what do you expect Bowser/Mewtwo to look like head-to-head? If it's not closer than 60/40, I don't know why you're talking about Ryu getting hurt worse.

Because Ryu and Bowser, by all means, looked to be about equal in general strength both before and after they faced head-to-head in 2k5. Whatever Mewtwo's main strength is, there's no way Bowser is doing anything similar to him...nor Toad.

Arguably irrelevant though, given this format. Still, having seen what Bowser did to Ryu before and watching the SF series grow another year older without a new game while the Pokemon series got revived/Pokemon series and Nidoran F hang tough/Nintendo growing more and more dominant here, Pokemon's easily most popular character shouldn't be ignored in a multi-poll situation like this. Hell, in a way, Mewtwo could be like Master Chief with this format.
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Lopen | Posted 8/14/2007 10:49:49 PM | message detail
Is it wrong that I'm considering taking CATS for #2 in the Peach/Sephiroth/Meta Knight/CATS four pack? Think if Sephiroth dominates, MK and Peach SFF each other, and CATS has his hardcore joke base?

Seph - 50
CATS - 20
Peach - 18
MK - 12

I can see this.
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BDawg | Posted 8/14/2007 10:50:03 PM | message detail
Lol female bracket....oh wait flash forward one year I come back to this board and we have what some might term a "slobbernocker". I like reading analysis of an internet popularity contest so I guess that's good for me. But some of the possibilities, nay certainties of fodder advancing into round 2 blows my mind.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/14/2007 10:50:37 PM | message detail
From Ludwig Von 2 Posted 8/14/2007 6:59:03 PM #011
Dude, the other topics at like 300. Someone's a little overzealous.

I recall you making a topic last year at 150 and single-handedly flooding it to 300 or so with smurf before it was finally deleted. You can kindly shut up until you learn not to be a hypocrite, thanks.

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Yesmar | Posted 8/14/2007 10:51:38 PM | message detail
I think I'm regretting Knuckles > Mega already. Link didn't SFF Mega Man too badly, and Samus would probably end up being rSFF'd by a Metroid. It's an interesting upset to be, but I think that I'll probably change it tomorrow.
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Twisted Misters: 2007 World Series of Pop Culture Champions!!!
swirIdude | Posted 8/14/2007 10:54:07 PM | message detail
I don't understand how you can even say Knuckles beats Mega Man. Mega/Yoshi SFF can get him over Yoshi, but how can that put him over Mega himself?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/14/2007 10:55:15 PM | message detail
I'll happily talk about my thoughts on the bracket later, but I just got in and there's way too much stuff being talked about for me to bother catching up. Until tomorrow, peeps.

And Moltar, you won't regret letting me back in. This'll be VERY fun to write for.

~*ST*~
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whatev | Posted 8/14/2007 10:56:13 PM | message detail
Anyone who seriously thinks that Mario > Sephiroth when Link is in the match, well, I'll simply say that that's one less bracket I have to worry about. I mean, if you honestly think that Crono will somehow draw more votes away from Sephy than Cloud can, go right ahead.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 10:58:38 PM | message detail
We need to discuss the fourpack with Meta-Knight and Peach. Meta-Knight > Peach is totally possible right? >_>
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 11:00:35 PM | message detail
of course. I actually think Meta-Knight will get more votes than Peach. we're putting too much into the x-stats. Peach will crap in a multi-poll with almost any Nintendo character.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/14/2007 11:00:47 PM | message detail
Uh, it would take a lot of SSBB support. Or maybe Meta-Knight really had been sabotaged by lack of nominations all these years.
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Lopen | Posted 8/14/2007 11:03:19 PM | message detail
Man, I'd say so. I can't figure the winner of that at all. We've seen how Peach crumbles in the Mario multioption polls.

That gives us four options:

A. Peach crumbles in the presence of greatness. Sephiroth Masamunes her ass. (Yeah I just mentioned Peach's ass, hush Ults)
B. Peach crumbles in the presence of Nintendo. Meta-Knight owns her.
C. Peach crumbles only when Mario characters are around. No effect here, she advances with ease.
D. Peach and MK are hammered by Seph and CATS stands resolute. For great justice!
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/14/2007 11:03:42 PM | message detail
I love Meta-Knight, but... uh... no way in hell. No way anywhere else, either, but especially not in hell.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 8/14/2007 11:05:10 PM | message detail
Whats with all the rematches? Squall with Geno, Zero with Lloyd, Samus with Frog, Bowser with Ryu, Yuna with Ganon...
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marioinblack | Posted 8/14/2007 11:05:22 PM | message detail
This bracket makes my head hurt. Too much SFF, too much close finishes, ordering may be wrong, GAH!!!!!!!!!

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 11:06:14 PM | message detail
Hey Janus, Jill barely lost to Peach. Kirby would probably dominate Jill at this point in time, and did beat her way before the Ninty boost. Meta-Knight is essentially Kirby with a sword, wings, and a different costume. And Peach sucks in multi Nintendo polls. Come on dog <_<
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Haste_2 | Posted 8/14/2007 11:06:40 PM | message detail
One 4-pack that has me stumped is who wins out of...
Ada Wong/Frank West/Jade Curtiss. Who ya guys got? I have Jade for now, but I have no clue...

I could easily see Meta-Knight beating Peach after SSBB, but I just don't think he has enough exposure yet.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 11:07:45 PM | message detail
Ada is beating out those two jobbers. Frank West will be weaker than the likes of Sam Fisher and Agent 47. That's all you need to know.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Haste_2 | Posted 8/14/2007 11:09:27 PM | message detail
Yeah... it's just that Ada Wong is like 18% on BL, which doesn't make me confident, especially when the other two probably aren't terribly far off that... then add in multi-option to the mix.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 11:10:57 PM | message detail
I'm just going off the fact that Resident Evil 4 is gonna keep boosting with all these ports of it >_>

Seriously though, I don't expect Jade Curtiss to pull a Lloyd Irving and beat a RE character though. Nor do I expect Frank West to do anything worth while.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 11:23:58 PM | message detail
guys, remember, x-stats are nearly meaningless. one could say Frank wins second simply because he doesn't share a fanbase with anybody in the poll.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/14/2007 11:28:34 PM | message detail
I don't think Peach will have trouble getting out of the first round, but the second round is a different animal entirely. You could potentially have three Nintendo characters there, and Peach does HORRIBLE in polls with other Nintendo characters. I think Fox has a realistic chance of getting through two rounds.

~*ST*~
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/14/2007 11:32:13 PM | message detail
I have Fox beating out Peach.
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Nominate Serge.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 11:33:54 PM | message detail
I've got Wario over Fox m'self.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/14/2007 11:39:43 PM | message detail
That was my reasoning, though times change and Yoshi is sort of beastly now.

He's perhaps THE most overrated character from last year. He's got a notable win against Dante now at least, but Dante's positioning had been suspect from the previous year and Yoshi had a decisive picture advantage in that match.

I can't see Yoshi breaking 35% on even the weakest Mega Man


I haven't read past this post yet, but, the most overrated character from last year? Knocking Riku out post KH2, defeating Dante, and doing respectably on Snake in his best year doesn't translate to you being overrated.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=42

Okay, so Yoshi's hogging the frame and not looking like a zombie, but decisive picture advantage? I discount picture advantage almost always, and this isn't even an extreme or at least proven character to have problems with it like Snake. It's Dante and Yoshi, one's happy, one's surly, but we've seen far worse pictures than this one.

As a huge Yoshi fan, I don't need an explanation for how he did against Snake, but people always bring up Snake and his terrible sprite rounds. Fine, here's the picture for recap:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=53

It's really not that great for Snake, and neither is his background picture, but, you know, people can read on this site, and his name is right there. Yoshi doesn't need this match to have had a good year last year, and snake supporters can adjust however much they want due to picture factor, but Yoshi did damn well, and also in the regions of acceptability. I wouldn't call him beastly, but I certainly wouldn't call him overrated, either.
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NominateSerge | Posted 8/14/2007 11:42:14 PM | message detail
Look at where Yoshi placed in the stats if you want to know if he's overrated or not.
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Nominate Serge.
Seginustemple | Posted 8/14/2007 11:45:51 PM | message detail
I actually put Captain Falcon over Fox. Wario over CF, of course. Is that crazy? Am I just blinded by my F-Zero fanboyism or is Captain Falcon a reasonable threat to Fox?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 11:48:47 PM | message detail
Falcon gets most of his strength from SSB and Fox SFFs him like nothing.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/14/2007 11:55:49 PM | message detail
Falcon is an SSB avatar; there's no way in hell I'd take him to outdo Fox.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 11:56:53 PM | message detail
Falcon PUUUUUUNCH
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Seginustemple | Posted 8/14/2007 11:59:02 PM | message detail
F-Zero X was FAR better than Starfox 64 dammit......you lame animal-lovers.........I guess I can't let my fanboyism make me regret bad contest picks like last year.......
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If I had written the book, I would have made it so the spirit of man pops out of Winston and socks O'Brien in the face really hard...
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/15/2007 12:00:40 AM | message detail
Ima take Fox and Falcon.

I dont trust Wario at all <_<
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/15/2007 12:01:47 AM | message detail
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 12:02:55 AM | message detail
I'd be shocked if Fox didn't make it to the third round.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:03:58 AM | message detail
I'm starting to think Fox > Wario is the way to go. Hell I like Star Fox 64 a lot. Why not.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 12:04:50 AM | message detail
I dunno if Falcon can beat Wario.... though Wario crapped in the Mario poll, I don't think he craps as bad with SSBB and Wario Ware finally up his sleeve.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2007 12:21:54 AM | message detail
It'll be a battle between Banjo and CF for last in that four-pack.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:22:38 AM | message detail
WHOOOOA BANJOOOO
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
NominateSerge | Posted 8/15/2007 12:26:31 AM | message detail
What match do you think Board 8 is most likely to get burned on that the casual might pick more correctly?

And what match do you think the casuals are most likely to get burned on that Board 8 will pick more correctly?
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Nominate Serge.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/15/2007 12:27:23 AM | message detail
The answer to both those questions is something that involves Master Chief >_>
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 1:00:13 AM | message detail
Kirby > Kratos is the biggest thing I can think of B8 beating the casuals on.

It's hard to tell where the casuals will beat B8, since that requires us to know upsets. Tidus > Leon, maybe? Liquid > his fourpack? Luigi > Ganondorf and Yuna? Zelda > Vincent in the match with Link (and continuing on to beat Crono, maybe)? Peach > Fox? Mewtwo winning his fourpack? Master Chief in the finals?

I dunno, that's about all I can think of for possible upsets with casual support. Anyone else have any suggestions?

And who's doing the BOP this year?
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2007 1:46:08 AM | message detail
I'm thinking Bidoof will outscore Zelda in Round 2.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
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