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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 448

MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:00:23 PM | message detail
XD

the guy beat Kirby, give him more props than that. that's all I'm saying.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2007 7:00:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=362

Not much to go on, but it did beat FFT, and I'd certainly take Ramza > Pikachu.

...not that I'd take CC over FFT, but it definitely has some popularity here.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:01:07 PM | message detail
Not in this format, they shouldn't.

yes in this format. hardcore fanbases pretty much prevail.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/14/2007 7:02:24 PM | message detail
Division 6

Amaterasu
Dante
Little Mac
Matt (Wii Sports)

Dante. Amaterasu? not buying that hype. Matt? awesome that he made it, but will people vote for him? who knows. that leaves Little Mac, probably the most recognizable of the bunch. if he gets announced for Brawl, everyone will change their brackets in a heartbeat. I'll take him.

Ada Wong
Balthier Bunansa
Frank West
Jade Curtiss

Balthier > Ada Wong. not buying Dead Rising as a major title here, and Jade's absolute ceiling is, like, Lloyd. besides, Ada > Jade last year!

Isaac
Pikachu
Serge
Tidus

Serge! and he's even in a winnable position! Pikachu's probably the safe pick for second, being the only "real" Nintendo character and by far the most recognizable guy.. but I'd probably go with Serge just for the hell of it. no way am I losing a point picking Pikachu!

Leon Kennedy
Ridley
Spyro the Dragon
Vivi Ornitier

Leon > Vivi >> everyone else.

Dante
Little Mac (Amaterasu? Matt?)
Balthier
Ada Wong

Dante > Balthier is pretty obvious. well, those two are obvious.. I guess Balthier has a chance of outdoing Dante. but if Vincent could only get 55%, how's Balthier going to squeeze in there?

Tidus
Pikachu (Serge?)
Leon
Vivi

man, Pikachu got a freaking dream draw. fortunately, it's not going to matter.

Vivi/Tidus! classic argument right there. give me Vivi. Leon is the only definite here.

Dante
Balthier
Vivi
Leon

two action game characters, two FF characters. how does the SFF go here? this is a pretty interesting match, even if it's predictable. the percentages are what interests me here. Dante > Leon? Leon > Dante? either way, I expect those two to make it.
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xexyz
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:02:36 PM | message detail
I have decided on my traditional Luigi upset of the contest (1/4, baby!). That is, of course, Luigi in the semifinals!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:08:50 PM | message detail
I was waiting for the Luigi upset, RP. Now all we need is a two post explanation detailing why and we're so in business.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:14:05 PM | message detail
so yeah, anyone think Axel could pull a fast one on Frog? I mean, on how well he did with Mega Man, and being the only KH character in the poll, I'm finding it hard to put Frog over him.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:14:43 PM | message detail
Division 8

Aeris Gainsborough
Akuma
Geno
Squall Leonhart

^_^ @ Geno being back

Squall and Aeris advance

Albert Wesker
Daxter
Lara Croft
Sora

Sora > Lara. Some say Wesker, but I don't think Lara's fallen THAT far.

Duke Nukem
Ike
Gordon Freeman
Guybrush Threepwood

XMFD

Gordon > Duke

XFD XFD

Sonic the Hedgehog
Sub-Zero
Prince of Persia
Viewtiful Joe

Sonic > Subby booooooooooring

Squall
Aeris
Sora
Lara

Wow, 3 Square characters. Lara has a slightly realistic shot here. Though my money is on Squall > Sora, especially after Sora impressed last year.

Gordon
Duke
Sonic
Subby

Sonic > Subby again

Squall
Sora
Sonic
Subby

Sonic > Squall, although Subby has a shot here.

TuRtLe
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:15:07 PM | message detail
yeah, mariosuperstar, I can't do it either. Currently I've got Axel, and I think it's going to stay that way, even though something about it feels fishy.
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Majin Lou | Posted 8/14/2007 7:15:07 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Majin Lou | Posted 8/14/2007 7:17:54 PM | message detail
I need to look at the right page before I randomly post messages.

<_<
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:18:39 PM | message detail
Div 7

R1: L-Block over Laharl, aww yeah. Not much here either though.

R2: Kratos/Kirby should have their group...

R3: Snake/Kirby/Kratos/Riku. #2 should be a fun fight, but I think Kirby can take it.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/14/2007 7:19:07 PM | message detail
Division 7

Kirby
L-Block
Laharl
Nathan Hale

...L-Block? 2004 called, it wants you back!

..why the L-Block anyway? the line is where it's at!

yeah, I'm taking the L-block here. I feel bad even doing it, but.. Laharl? Nathan Who?


Donkey Kong
Kratos
Marth
Prince of All Cosmos

Kratos. Donkey Kong.

Nightmare
Rayman
Solid Snake
Vyse

Solid Snake's a given, and I'd say Nightmare's a given too. not buying Vyse coming in second here, and Rayman doesn't even belong in a 128 bracket.

Haseo
Riku
Roxas
Ryu Hayabusa

WHO IS HASEO

Riku > Roxas, that much is obvious. Ryu > Roxas, too. can Ryu come in first? it's possible with the dual KH representation, plus his NGS. not that many people have played it, but eh.

Kirby
L-BLOCK
Kratos
Donkey Kong

Kratos is a shoe-in here. the other two will fight over which Nintendo character gets representation in the final, and it's almost definitely going to be Kirby.

Solid Snake
Nightmare
Riku
Ryu Hayabusa

x-stats say Riku > Ryu, and I can't find a reason to go against them here. Snake takes first, of course.

Kirby
Kratos
Solid Snake
Riku

really, really interesting fourpack. Snake comes in first of course, but what from there? Kratos, Kirby and Riku are deathly close. I'd probably take Kirby, but Kratos isn't a horrible pick. plus, Yoshi > Kirby and Riku got 45% on Yoshi. too much x-stats for me though, my mind says Nintendo will get the second character here no matter who it is.
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xexyz
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2007 7:19:49 PM | message detail
Riku and Snake both leech votes from Kratos there. Ordinarily I'd take Kratos over Kirby, but not in that fourpack.

Speaking of which, whatever happened to Kirby Wii?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:23:02 PM | message detail
so yeah, anyone think Axel could pull a fast one on Frog? I mean, on how well he did with Mega Man, and being the only KH character in the poll, I'm finding it hard to put Frog over him.

Axel got 30% on Mega Man

Frog got 49% on Snake and 30% on Samus as well as beating Riku in 2k5 (even though I'd take Riku now)

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:23:54 PM | message detail
Riku and Snake leeching from Kratos?

WTF?

Not to mention Snake will be taking away all of Kirby's votes.

Snake/Kratos ftw!

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2007 7:25:09 PM | message detail
Snake/Sora is what decides me there.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:26:44 PM | message detail
Axel got 30% on Mega Man

Frog got 49% on Snake and 30% on Samus as well as beating Riku in 2k5 (even though I'd take Riku now)


you're going to actually consider that 49% on Snake a reason in this match? come on Turtle, I know you're bad, but you weren't THAT bad.

and really, using evidence like that is going to mean little in a four-way poll. x-stats are nearly (not completely) but nearly meaningless if the characters are even a little bit close. you've seen how Crono perform. you've seen how KH characters perform. why is Frog a lock?
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KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 8/14/2007 7:27:59 PM | message detail
Fourth Division

First match: Agent J (who is that...?), Bidoof, Link, and Edgeworth? Link for 90%, anyone?

Second match: Tails, The Boss, Vincent, and Zelda? Well, it's obvious who advances here. Good to see Tails back though.

Third match: Crono, Sam Fisher, Simon Belmont, and Raiden? Raiden to round two, baby! It's a good contest for Metal Gear so far!

Fourth match: HK-47, Lloyd Irving, Jak, and Zero? Well, it's obvious Zero wins, but who comes in second? I'm leaning toward Jak right now.

Fifth Division

First match: Luigi, Mudkip, Pit, and Tingle? Oh my. If Tingle advances a round, I'll puke. Man, this is something rough. I hate to bank on SSBB hype, but this is all Nintendo here. It's completely unpredictable how it will spread out.

Second match: Ganondorf, Ratchet, Thrall, and Vergil? Ratchet's back, baby! Blizzard's bound to win something though, so I'll take Thrall for second.

Third match: Master Chief, PaRappa (what the?!), Vercetti, and Yuna? Hmmm...Yuna could WIN this poll, but this seems like the kind of format that will cater to the Chief's rabid fanbase. His anti-votes are too spread out.

Fourth match: Alucard, Liquid, Ness, and Zidane? Man, this is one tough match. I don't think Alucard is a given to win this one, but I'll probably take him. I don't know who else to pick...My MGS bias says to pick Liquid, but I imagine this will be one of the most debated.

Sixth Division

First match: Amaterasu, Dante, Little Mac (YES!), and Matt the Mii? Wow, Dante kills everyone. Amaterasu might advance, but I'll be rooting for the underdog!

Second match: Ada Wong, Balthier, Frank West, and Jade Curtiss? Balthier WINS, baby! Take THAT! And he'll get past the next round, too!

Third match: Isaac, Pikachu, Serge, and Tidus? SERGE IS IN! YESSSSSSSSS! But in the same match as Tidus! NOOOOOO! CURSE YOU BACONNNNNNNNNN! I'll root for both of them to make it through...

Fourth match: Leon Kennedy, Ridley, Spyro, and Vivi? Well, it's obvious Leon and Vivi advance, but in what order? I'll side with Leon for now. He seems to have everything going for him right now.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:28:01 PM | message detail
Not to mention Snake will be taking away all of Kirby's votes.

Snake/Kratos ftw!


Snake taking more votes from Kirby as opposed to Kratos. I'm not buying it.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:28:30 PM | message detail
Snake/Kratos makes the least sense, even when considering how badly Snake crushed Riku's male escort. Kratos is pretty much a picture-perfect example of a decent character who would flop mightily against Snake.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:28:53 PM | message detail
Well, for starters, Frog already has a huge advantage on Axel by getting the same percentage on Samus as Axel did on MM in arguably MM's weakest year.

Then there's the fact that this type of poll would seemingly favour CT characters, with a hardcore, dedicated fanbase. Although I don't believe in this one as much as the fact that Axel has alot of ground to cover to even come close here.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 8/14/2007 7:30:28 PM | message detail
Snake/Kratos makes the least sense, even when considering how badly Snake crushed Riku's male escort. Kratos is pretty much a picture-perfect example of a decent character who would flop mightily against Snake.

Pretty much exactly why I went with Kirby for that match.

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Believe
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/14/2007 7:30:33 PM | message detail
I've got a big question about the first battle. Does anyone think Vaan will have enough strength to survive? I'm just curious. I'm sure lots of people have Balthier going fairly far though.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:30:53 PM | message detail
I don't get it. Samus pounds Snake into the ground after Snake dominates the male bracket last year, and noone thinks there's at least SOME overlap there? If anything it would be even more pronounced against Kirby, who likely draws a good chunk of his strength from Smash. Kratos doesn't have to make up much ground to begin with, and the fact that he's had a huge game since the last contest just screams that this is him about to have his breakout year.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 8/14/2007 7:31:45 PM | message detail
The number of times I have seen "that Mario poll" being used to prove a point is disgusting.

IT'S AN EXTREMELY OLD POLL! IT HAS NO VALUE! YOSHI IS NOT DOUBLE THE STRENGTH OF MARIO! STOP USING THIS DAMN POLL!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:31:58 PM | message detail
Balthier got a much better draw, and is probably a more popular character than Vaan. Add to that that Vaan has Knuckles and Yoshi (2 very strong high midcarders) and Rikku siphoningj his votes away, Vaan has no chance.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
trannyscience | Posted 8/14/2007 7:33:20 PM | message detail
IT'S AN EXTREMELY OLD POLL! IT HAS NO VALUE! YOSHI IS NOT DOUBLE THE STRENGTH OF MARIO! STOP USING THIS DAMN POLL!

I know you're a crazy Knuckles fanboy, but there was one run, like, a year ago and the same result came back.
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xexyz
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:33:36 PM | message detail
I don't get it. Samus pounds Snake into the ground after Snake dominates the male bracket last year, and noone thinks there's at least SOME overlap there? If anything it would be even more pronounced against Kirby, who likely draws a good chunk of his strength from Smash.

it doesn't give the people who liked Kirby before Snake in Smash to suddenly vote Snake.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:35:19 PM | message detail
I don't think you understand how SFF works, so I'm going to stop this before I get moderated (this close to my 1000 day to boot)

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Seginustemple | Posted 8/14/2007 7:35:41 PM | message detail
then you've got Master Chief who's the ultimate character in a contest like this

Yeah, tell that to 90% of people's brackets last year. Are people really going with all this Halo 3 hype?
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trannyscience | Posted 8/14/2007 7:36:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, tell that to 90% of people's brackets last year. Are people really going with all this Halo 3 hype?

Halo 3 could not exist and Master Chief would still be the ultimate character in a four-way contest.
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xexyz
ZFS | Posted 8/14/2007 7:38:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, tell that to 90% of people's brackets last year. Are people really going with all this Halo 3 hype?

The Chief doesn't have to rely on any Halo 3 hype to really get far in this kind of bracket. If you look at his path, he doesn't run into anyone that would steal votes away from him. He doesn't face a character like Snake or anything. On top of that, some of the characters that might normally pose a threat run into SFF (Ganon/Luigi, for example). He's an easy pick to get into the semifinals, I think. And after the first round -- where he's just about a lock to win his match -- Halo 3 will be out. So he won't have to rely on any hype for any significant length of time.

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Halcyon26 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:39:37 PM | message detail
Ok, this is has been discussed, but I can't decide.
Luigi
Ganondorf
Yuna
MC

Two Nintendo characters, one Square, one Xbox.
Will Luigi and Gdorf split enough votes for the other two to get by?
And who wins in their first two round matches, Yuna or MC? I have Yuna for both now, based on little.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:40:32 PM | message detail
Div 8

R1: Duke/Ike/Gordon/Guybrush? The fodder here is amazing. Nothing else worth noting here.

R2: Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara, where does the SFF go?

R3: Sonic and Squall are the ones with the best chances making it out of here.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting the bracket!
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ZFS | Posted 8/14/2007 7:41:10 PM | message detail
I took Master Chief to win his first three matches (Yuna in second place for the first two). Ganon and Luigi should split the Nintendo fanbase with that one, and I sided with Ganon there due to being Zelda, being indirectly stronger, and having TP.

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Believe
therealmnm | Posted 8/14/2007 7:41:17 PM | message detail
Not to mention Snake will be taking away all of Kirby's votes.

If Kirby can hold up against Bowser and Luigi, who are Nintendo mainstays, I highly doubt Snake will take the Nintendo fanbase away from Kirby. That's insane.
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:41:42 PM | message detail
That's also how I decided that messy fourpack.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting the bracket!
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:41:54 PM | message detail
Ganon SFFs Luigi (the thought of Ganon SFFing anything, especially a Mario character is disturbing, but I think with TP he can do it) and the Chief rides Halo 3 and the contest's format all the way to second (and maybe first) place.
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Pikawil100 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:43:21 PM | message detail
Yes, and with all the bad Sonic games we've been having recently, he's only been getting weaker and weaker, right?

Not really, but this one was the biggest killer yet (Pun not intended, Mephiles.). We'll hafta wait and see.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/14/2007 7:43:45 PM | message detail
Ganon SFFs Luigi

not happening.
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Seginustemple | Posted 8/14/2007 7:44:51 PM | message detail
I see, so MC gets no SFF......

I still wouldn't count on him having a super-hardcore fanbase on Gfaqs. Eh, I still don't think he'll get past round 2 unless Halo 3 is out by then.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/14/2007 7:45:29 PM | message detail
Division 8

Aeris Gainsborough
Akuma
Geno
Squall Leonhart

I can't wait for this one. is this a repeat of Squall/Vincent? I'll be interested to see how Aeris does, if she makes a comeback or whatnot. there's also the chance of massive SFF and Akuma advancing, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. nice to see Geno sacrificed to Squall again.

Albert Wesker
Daxter
Lara Croft
Sora

Sora's easy. Lara seems like a logical pick, and someone who would do pretty good in a format like this.

Duke Nukem
Ike
Gordon Freeman
Guybrush Threepwood

I've been harsh to Ike and his supporters in the past, but he got a perfect fourpack here. Freeman probably takes this fourpack (what?), and Ike can probably beat out Duke Nukem for second. give him a Brawl pic and I bet he does better than expected. not buying Duke Nukem being worth much unless it's just 'uhh well I've heard of you and you're not Sora, I'll vote you'.. which I guess isn't the worst logic.

Sonic the Hedgehog
Sub-Zero
Prince of Persia
Viewtiful Joe

EC'S SPLOOGIN'

doesn't matter though, cause Sonic/Sub will advance here. put him in the previous fourpack and we've got something to talk about, though.

Aeris
Squall
Sora
Lara

god, if this bracket had someone of note in the fourth spot, it might be interesting. instead we've got a threesome of Square.

it's a fascinating threesome though. Aeris doubled Sora up back in 2003, but she's showed bigtime weakness since and Sora's been gaining like crazy with KH2. then there's Squall, who probably sucks up votes from both of them. the safe pick is probably Squall and... Aeris. I think I'll go with Squall/Sora, though. actually, I have no idea. one of the hardest picks of the bracket.

Gordon Freeman
Ike
Sub-Zero
Sonic

again, the latter two advance. no contest.

Squall
Aeris (Sora?)
Sonic
Sub-Zero

I guess Sub-Zero has a chance here, but it's pretty miniscule. Leonhart whines about this fourpack incessantly, Squall and Sonic advance, nothing very noteworthy.


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xexyz
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 8/14/2007 7:48:04 PM | message detail
Seventh Division

First match: Kirby, L-Block (Whoa, what a shocker), Laharl, and Nathan Hale (Who's that?)? So...the L-Block could conceivably advance? Not that I'll take it...right now.

Second match: Donkey Kong, Kratos, Marth, and the Prince of All Cosmos? Yeah, Kratos and DK advance in that order. No sweat.

Third match: Nightmare, Rayman, Solid Snake, and Vyse? SOLID SNAKE AND VYSE? CURSE YOU BACONNNNNNNN! ...Can Vyse beat Nightmare? Please say yes.

Fourth match: Haseo (Who?), Riku, Roxas, and Hayabusa? Roxas got stuck against Riku? That sucks. No chance of advancing.

Eight Division

First match: Aeris, Akuma, Geno, and Squall? ...Squall and Akuma together? CURSE YOU, BACONNNNNNNNNNNNN! ...Squall and Aeris advance easily either way...Unless Squall SFFs Aeris hardcore! Go Akuma!

Second match: Albert Wesker, Daxter, Lara Croft, and Sora? Awesome that Daxter got in, but Sora and Lara advance.

Third match: Duke Nukem, Ike, Gordon, and Guybrush? Gordon in a fourway poll he can win? Why are we tempting fate?!

Fourth Match: Sonic, Sub-Zero, the Prince of Persia, and Viewtiful Joe? Sonic and Sub-Zero together? Blast! Well, at least Subby can get through.

...Wait, Tifa got snubbed in a 128 character battle, not Aeris? Despite being a big Tifa fan, that's incredibly hilarious.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
ZFS | Posted 8/14/2007 7:50:52 PM | message detail
I still wouldn't count on him having a super-hardcore fanbase on Gfaqs. Eh, I still don't think he'll get past round 2 unless Halo 3 is out by then.

Master Chief does have a super hardcore fanbase on GameFAQs. The only problem in a normal contest setting is that he has a big chunk of anti-voters, too. In this type of format, anti-votes essentially are non-existent, leaving Chief with his hardcore base to push him.

And I just checked up on the date. Halo 3 comes out September 25th; round 2 will start in early October.

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Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:51:55 PM | message detail
Halo 3 should be out by the second round no?

Wouldn't it be hiarious if Yuna wins the first one, then gets murdered in the second one?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/14/2007 7:53:53 PM | message detail
Wouldn't it be hiarious if Yuna wins the first one, then gets murdered in the second one?

Yes, but I'm one of the many who think that certain people are giving the next Halo game way too much credit. This is Halo 3, not Halo 1.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2007 7:53:58 PM | message detail
Wouldn't it be hiarious if Yuna wins the first one, then gets murdered in the second one?

That's going to happen in plenty of matches.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/14/2007 7:55:04 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Fenix will bomb.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2007 7:55:32 PM | message detail
Question, do Brawl or SMGj come out before the Mario/Sephiroth match?

Can history repeat itself?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
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