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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 448

Lucid Faia | Posted 8/15/2007 2:10:26 AM | message detail
Lucid's Three Keys to a Winning Bracket

1. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.
2. Never trust Final Fantasy IX. (i.e. Not Robotnik)
3. You must pick against 95% of the board at least once.

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Rebel. Revolutionary. Disharmonious.
UNMUTUAL.
Lopen | Posted 8/15/2007 2:13:30 AM | message detail
I've got Miles Edgeworth > Bidoof in round 1. That being said, I think Edgeworth will outscore Zelda in round 2. Heh heh.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2007 2:36:49 AM | message detail
I dunno. There are plenty of people who think that Link is actually named Zelda, and with a picture of Link, Zelda could do decently.

She'll certainly do better than Ganondorf, in any case.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/15/2007 2:46:00 AM | message detail
There is no way Zelda will do as bad as Ganondorf did in 2004.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Pokemon Diamond Name: Haruhi FC: 0859 9890 8167
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 3:38:51 AM | message detail
If anyone's interested I'm in the process of writing up some detailed analysis on rad action pack that'll go up throughout the day. First division is up already.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 3:47:59 AM | message detail
Ridley for the 2nd round baby! He'll totally get more votes than Vivi by syphoning away all of Spyro's votes with hardcore dragon SFF!
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"Eet's game time..."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/15/2007 4:33:55 AM | message detail
LOL Tails got screwed.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/15/2007 4:58:54 AM | message detail
This is unbelievably awesome but there's almost too much stuff to comprehend. I'm finding it really difficult to choose some of those fodder groupings.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz
"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
__Mega64__ | Posted 8/15/2007 5:09:42 AM | message detail
I don't think anyone really likes Wario. I have a feeling he's going to bomb horribly.

I've got Fox > Falcon on that one.
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I started the nomination rallies that got Nidoran F (2006) and Matt (2007) into their contests.
I'm 2/2, baby!
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 5:24:03 AM | message detail
I don't think anyone really likes Wario. I have a feeling he's going to bomb horribly.

I've got Fox > Falcon on that one.


Grr.

Wario's getting his payback this contest after years of injustice!
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"Eet's game time..."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/15/2007 5:34:40 AM | message detail
From Lucid Faia Posted 8/15/2007 5:10:26 AM #451
Lucid's Three Keys to a Winning Bracket

1. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.
2. Never trust Final Fantasy IX. (i.e. Not Robotnik)
3. You must pick against 95% of the board at least once.


Third point is overestimated, although I'll never get why everyone loved FFX over SSBM back in 2004.

~*ST*~
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/15/2007 5:37:20 AM | message detail
From NominateSerge Posted 8/15/2007 3:26:31 AM #447
What match do you think Board 8 is most likely to get burned on that the casual might pick more correctly?

Big Boss > Pac-Man. Mario is the absolute worst character that Pac-Man could be up against, but a lot of people are going to look at Pac-Man > Ocelot and shoo him into the second round.

And what match do you think the casuals are most likely to get burned on that Board 8 will pick more correctly?

The final.

~*ST*~
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/15/2007 5:38:43 AM | message detail
Y'know Ulti, I really considered picking BB for those reasons. In fact I can't remember if I did or not *checks bracket topic*
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/15/2007 5:39:51 AM | message detail
Yeah, I did.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/15/2007 5:39:58 AM | message detail
Mario is going to ANNIHILATE Pac-Man. Luigi and Yoshi made Pac look terrible; imagine what Mario will do there.

~*ST*~
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jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 5:51:13 AM | message detail
Final match of division 5 is truly horrible.
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2007 7:20:01 AM | message detail
No faith in Banjo guys?

Don't get me wrong, he won't be that strong, I see him being as strong as Conker. He won't take first, but I can see him steal second from Wario. Remember like Peach Wario isn't exactly a fan favorite.
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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 7:37:54 AM | message detail
we don't know how popular Banjo's games are on this site exactly. he could be as weak as Joanna.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 7:39:19 AM | message detail

1. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.
2. Never trust Final Fantasy IX. (i.e. Not Robotnik)
3. You must pick against 95% of the board at least once.


Can I add to this?

4. DON'T ****ING LISTEN TO THE BOARD OR THE STATS TOPIC.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I've got balls of steel. Badges: 6 The bell tolls for you.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:04:13 AM | message detail
I don't know, it works both ways. I was on the brink of picking Clair over Kairi last year before the Board helped me change my mind. On the other hand it convinced me to pick Tidus over Kirby...

Just have a backbone is what I'm saying. I'm glad I went against the grain when picking Castlevania > Halo and Luigi > Zero.
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"Eet's game time..."
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:06:23 AM | message detail
The one match I'm probably feeling the worst about is Kratos/Kirby/Snake/Riku.

As it is I have Snake, Kratos, and I do think Kratos is stronger than Kirby, though not by a large amount, but I just feel like Snake/Riku/Kratos all have a lot more of an overlap than Kirby is going to have, and that the damn puffball might just be able to eek it out. I'm pretty set with everything else in my bracket (I still can't believe I have L-block going to round 2), so yeah.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:07:22 AM | message detail
4. DON'T ****ING LISTEN TO THE BOARD OR THE STATS TOPIC.

You know the stats topic generally does better than everyone else on calling matches, right?

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mmm feel the vibration baby
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:09:25 AM | message detail
I went with Snake and Kirby and didn't think twice. Snake powered himself up over Sephiroth in a multi-poll. He's not flinching. But he's also not taking anything away from Kirby, who didn't get SFF'd at all against Nintendo mainstays. There's no way that Snake's appearance in SSBB takes away that fanbase from Kirby loyalists.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:11:10 AM | message detail
Well uh, yeah, Snake SFFing Kirby wasn't part of my line of thinking at all, that's kinda why I never said it.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 8:13:14 AM | message detail
Full bracket analysis is now up:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:13:36 AM | message detail
Yeah, I wasn't talking about you. But some people have been constantly bringing that up. That match isn't even that debatable in my mind. Kratos is strong yeah, but I don't think he's beating Kirby if he's the lone Nintendo representative in that poll. And Snake's already going to dominate the poll, so Kratos isn't going to get a lot of casual votes that he would against Kirby alone... Even a small concentrated Nintendo vote gets Kirby by in the presence of Solid Snake...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 8:15:10 AM | message detail
You know the stats topic generally does better than everyone else on calling matches, right?

The stats topic tends to screw me over at least once a year, as well. The one time I flat out REFUSED to listen to the stats topic, I got Mario > Samus right and was on the leaderboard at the end.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I've got balls of steel. Badges: 6 The bell tolls for you.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:16:49 AM | message detail
Just been messing with my bracket again, and I now have Leon getting to the final 8. God how I wish this could be true, certainly easier to take than Master Chief getting there anyway. Got Ganon there too.
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"Eet's game time..."
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:19:36 AM | message detail
The stats topic tends to screw me over at least once a year, as well. The one time I flat out REFUSED to listen to the stats topic, I got Mario > Samus right and was on the leaderboard at the end.

Okay? Listening to any single entity for the entire contest is bound to get you SOMETHING wrong. Otherwise, you'd see a lot more perfect bracket. I'm sure you lost points listening to yourself as well. So WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T ****ING LISTEN TO YOURSELF!!!!
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/15/2007 8:19:38 AM | message detail
After careful deliberation of votals, I have determined that Fenix stands little chance. In an SFFless poll, GoW only got 13,000 votes. Fenix probably won't get all of these. Gears of War's popularity is something to be wary of.

People need to learn that popular games=/=popular characters. Look at StarCraft.
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:20:45 AM | message detail
After careful deliberation of votals, I have determined that Fenix stands little chance. In an SFFless poll, GoW only got 13,000 votes. Fenix probably won't get all of these. Gears of War's popularity is something to be wary of.

Look at Fenix's competition though...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:20:45 AM | message detail
Alright yeah... that's pretty much my reasons for thinking I should be taking Kirby there. Snake just seems like the type of guy who could suck away Kratos' casual support, but I want to take him over Kirby so bad, just because I know I would with confidence in a head to head match. Eh... may as well switch it, because there's no point in fighting what I really think is going to happen.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/15/2007 8:22:37 AM | message detail
Zelos has a cult following on his side, as well as the Anime Factor. Kefka has Square on his side. Nook is laughable, however.
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:22:54 AM | message detail
So WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T ****ING LISTEN TO YOURSELF!!!!

That's really good advise, considering you're talking to ExLax.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:23:51 AM | message detail
And it's not necessarily Snake taking away from Kratos' fanbase. It's Snake taking away a bunch of votes that Kratos would have gotten in a one-on-one match from people simply not liking Kirby.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:25:16 AM | message detail
so what's everyone's stance on KOS-MOS/Diablo/Arthas?
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jonthomson | Posted 8/15/2007 8:25:54 AM | message detail
I have Diablo taking it
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Jon Thomson - 0/0, next picks: Yoshi beats Knuckles
Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/15/2007 8:27:17 AM | message detail
Arthas. TTF.
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:28:29 AM | message detail
I went with KOS-MOS. I think she has the most following out of those three on this site as a character. I think Diablo takes a dive in strength in the presence of multiple options.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:29:19 AM | message detail
yeah, that's pretty much what I was going for, the casual fanbase. The only other things that I'm still considering changing are the following:

1. Mega Man 2. Knux (Might put Yoshi there, don't know really)

1. Zero 2. Jak (Um... yeah, I kinda just threw Jak in there because I really have no ****ing clue.)

1. Tidus 2. Serge (Once again, no clue, pikachu or Issac could easily go into my second slot)

1. Snake 2. Vyse (Had Nightmare... switched it to Vyse just because he seems like he has a pretty hardcore fanbase, even if it is small. Might go back, don't know)

1. Squall 2. Akuma (shows how little I really think of Aeris, that combined with Squall SFFing her, and we have this. I really have no clue on where Akuma sits, and feel like this is just waiting to bite me in the ass. I'll probably leave it as is though, since it's Round 1, and Aeris sucks.)



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mmm feel the vibration baby
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/15/2007 8:33:08 AM | message detail
So WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T ****ING LISTEN TO YOURSELF!!!!

My point was that I've done better going with my GUT than with the stats topic, mostly.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I've got balls of steel. Badges: 6 The bell tolls for you.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
therealmnm | Posted 8/15/2007 8:34:26 AM | message detail
Well with Pikachu, you think about how he's hated... but in Today's GameFAQs, the Nintendo fanbase voted for Tingle. wtf... I think Pikachu is safe. Pokemon is definitely more popular on this site than it was in 2k3/2k4.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:35:09 AM | message detail
yeah... that's probably a good idea. Hell I have Bidoof advancing.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:35:18 AM | message detail
Squall > Akuma is starting to get in my head as well. after looking at Cloud/Sephiroth (not really SFF'ing each other in a direct match-up, but with enough split to have someone who's not too far behind, Snake, tie with Sephiroth), I think Akuma can actually WIN this since Aeris is going to get SFF'd like hell by Squall.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/15/2007 8:36:10 AM | message detail
Hmm... Tidus>Isaac=>Pikachu(depends if the anti-vote is still there.)>>>Serge.
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
hochiminh155 | Posted 8/15/2007 8:36:13 AM | message detail
Aeris is FF7. Squall is FF8. Squall will win but he won't syphon off support from Aeris.

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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
Master Moltar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:36:43 AM | message detail
I think a good case can be made for either Diablo or KOS-MOS. One on one, I'd take Diablo, but with Arthas there to take up some votes, KOS-MOS stands a good chance.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting the bracket!
The Analysis Crew...believe
GyratingGrandma | Posted 8/15/2007 8:36:55 AM | message detail
Aeris is FF7. Squall is FF8. Squall will win but he won't syphon off support from Aeris.

You're absolutely right, no one has ever SFF'd someone from a different game before.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2007 8:37:19 AM | message detail
Aeris is FF7. Squall is FF8. Squall will win but he won't syphon off support from Aeris.

FF7 and FF8 share a pretty darn good close fanbase.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/15/2007 8:37:27 AM | message detail
500?
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It's not trolling. It's Justice.
AIR CONDITIONER.
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