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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 447

Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 2:56:27 PM | message detail
KH2 happened a while ago. Riku isn't really that significant of a character. People are more likely to forget about him when nominating than Sora.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 3:01:53 PM | message detail
he already got a pretty decent seeding when he didn't have KH2. I don't think he'll luck out bad anymore really.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 8/11/2007 3:02:50 PM | message detail
A while ago? It was only a year ago. And Riku is a very important character in the series. Heck, Sora spends most of the first two games LOOKING for him. It's hard to forget about him, even if you barely see him most of the second game.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 3:08:27 PM | message detail
I don't know too many games in which a character drops in popularity after a year. has that ever really happened?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 3:08:42 PM | message detail
That's what you believe. I believe otherwise. It's not really that important though. o.O
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 3:12:08 PM | message detail
From MarioSuperstar Posted 8/11/2007 6:08:27 PM #154
I don't know too many games in which a character drops in popularity after a year. has that ever really happened?

Well, Riku's situation isn't exactly the same as most other characters.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 3:12:55 PM | message detail
well, could you give a good example of ANY character?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 3:13:01 PM | message detail
Riku could draw someone like Zero this year and still fail to make it out of the first round... maybe. Could Zero put 45% up on Yoshi?

As for Kratos... I'm half expecting the guy to come in as a one seed if the winners aren't put back in. If that ends up happening (in which case he's a lock for a 2 seed instead), Kratos might lose if he draws... an underseeded returner, maybe Knuckles or something.

Not that Knux > Kratos is a lock to me or anything >.>
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
consolefreak | Posted 8/11/2007 3:13:25 PM | message detail
I read that second question as 'the chance at least one will make it into the contest'. Win a match, that's something else. I'll probably go with 45% on that one.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/11/2007 3:13:27 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/11/2007 3:15:42 PM | message detail
Could Zero put 45% up on Yoshi?

SFF. >_>
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 3:18:42 PM | message detail
I'd take Riku over Zero and feel pretty good about it.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/11/2007 3:19:49 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 8/11/2007 3:21:09 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament
95%. They all have solid support this year since we had 15 noms. The only reason some were left out last year was due to the female bracket.

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match
100%. Mewtwo!

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket
1%. It's not impssible I guess.

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year
0%. It's not going to happen for several years at least.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series
80%. Just a hunch that Shadow is coming back.

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket
95%. More than a few people will look at last years bracket for nomination ideas.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest
80%. Mewtwo, Bidoof AND Pikachu! Believe it!

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest
100%. Raiden and Solid Snake.

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest
60%. Kefka will make it. Maybe someone else as well.

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest
100%. Squall and Seifer without a doubt.

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match
90%. Just needs to not fight a FF character.

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match
70%. There are quite a few situations he can win.

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)
10%. Probably not this year.

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket
90%. Ken and Ryu.

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud
100%. Link vs Jay Solano Round 2. =D
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/11/2007 3:22:35 PM | message detail
I'd take Zero over Riku because I'm a huge Zero fanboy. >_>
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/11/2007 3:30:46 PM | message detail
Riku could draw someone like Zero this year and still fail to make it out of the first round... maybe. Could Zero put 45% up on Yoshi?

Well, Zero's one tough opponent to just pick like that. He had one bad year last year, that doesn't mean he's a complete washout now, not that you have to be let Yoshi beat you, but still. I would have seriously considered taking Zero over Yoshi last year, he's certainly no pushover. Riku/Zero would be a really close match, factor in the oddity that usually occurs when Megaman meets Nintendo, and Luigi/Zero looks even less conclusive. I think Riku is the one who would have to sweat in that matchup, not Zero.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/11/2007 3:31:42 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament
We saw...3/5 make it last year, right? All have a shot to make it now, certainly... however, I'm skeptical on Diddy Kong, so I'll say 25%.

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match
Mmm... 40% chance. Depending on how many NR winners make it, the odds change...

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket
Hm... 85%. The nominations didn't say they were excluded.

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year
15%. I'm sure SBAllen/CJayC will find a way to give both Mega Man and Crono an easy time until they hit another NN member.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series
20%. Shadow or Tails could make it, but it seems unlikely these days...

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket
Um... 50% chance.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest
Um...40%.

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest
80%. Raiden should make it now.

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest
35%. FF6A did come out this year, but I'm thinking only Kefka gets in again.

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest
65%.

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)
90%, assuming it's a normal character contest. Isn't there some non-NN/NN rematch every year? Maybe not...

Out of time.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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Yesmar | Posted 8/11/2007 3:35:35 PM | message detail
I'll use parentheses for if the bracket is 128 characters

1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

10% (33%) Even with the extra entrants, I could see Diddy Kong and/or Nightmare slipping through.

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match

40% (90%)

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

75% (75%) They weren't specifically excluded in the nominations so why not?

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

45% (45%) Mega Man and Crono might come close, but I think the Noble Nine will prevail once again.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

33% (80%) Shadow and Tails most likely will not make it unless there are 128 characters.

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

80% (99.9%) We definetly have enough females that can make it.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

35% (75%)

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

80% (99.9%)

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest

10% (50%)

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

33% (80%)

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

50% (80%) He has to pull it out sonner or later.

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

60% (90%) Same as Riku

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

50% (50%)

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

50% (85%) Chun-Li and Akuma are the best alternate guesses.

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud

20% (20%) Unless they're placed in the same half of the bracket it most likely will.
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jonthomson | Posted 8/11/2007 3:41:08 PM | message detail
Someone remind me who the five in the nomination rally were again as I didn't nominate any of them?
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Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 3:41:36 PM | message detail
Nightmare.
Diddy Kong.
Mewtwo.
Seifer.
Raiden.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
jonthomson | Posted 8/11/2007 3:57:16 PM | message detail
All assuming an orthodox 64 with no curveballs:

1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

2/1. I can see Diddy or Nightmare missing it, and I'm not convinced on Seifer. The only ones that seem like locks are Mewtwo (sigh) and Raiden

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match

11/2. Mewtwo, Diddy and Nightmare will be fodder. Raiden and Seifer could but would require a decent draw, something we haven't really seen for a rallied character since, what, Frog?

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

1/4. We have no reason to believe otherwise.

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

12/1. You need some very specific matches for this to even have a chance of happening.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

3/1. We've got Sonic and Knuckles probably, I really don't see much room (or support) for Shadow (meh), Robotnik (urgh), Tails (puke) or anyone else (starts grease fire)

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

1/8. Samus, Tifa and Zelda have no reason to be removed, Peach (although she sucks) may well come back and was a decent midcarder, Aeris is strong enough, then you just need one more. Jill? KOS-MOS? Chun-Li? Rikku? That'd be a lot of snubs.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

Evens. Mewtwo looks like a lock, and it's a flip whether Bidoof/Jigglypuff/whoever made it as well. There's enough support for enough that one might get in.

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

1/3. Looks safe that someone will come along with Snake for the ride.

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest

6/1. Just doesn't seem too likely but never say never.

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

7/4. Seems more likely as there's been a bit more rallying.

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

7/2. Needs to return and get a favourable draw - can't see any reason why he'd get a better chance than last year.

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

6/4. Plenty of reason to think he's improved.

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

8/11. CATS can only face so many opponents whilst keeping the draw rigged against him.

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

9/4. After Ryu they're all much of a muchness, Akuma has some support but meh

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud

9/2. Plenty of opportunity to rig things.
---
Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO
Kaxon | Posted 8/11/2007 5:35:59 PM | message detail
I'm late as usual, but I'll weigh in on the near elites. I'm definitely still picking Bowser over Ganon, and Zelda over Ganon as well. It seems like Ganon is continually overestimated, I'm not sure why. He's already proven himself to be a chump in SFF matches, and he blew his hyped match against Vincent when he was the favorite (and it wasn't even especially close).

I think my rankings would be:
Vincent
Zelda
Tifa
Squall
Bowser
Ganon
Auron

I think the top 4 are all very close together, and I'm not too confident in their order - the other three are a little more spaced out and I am pretty confident in those rankings. I don't see Auron as having made up enough ground from his 46% loss to Ganon to really compete, not when everyone else in this group has had reason to increase since then as well.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/11/2007 5:54:42 PM | message detail
Bad news Gurus... I'm afraid that we have been betrayed. The following Gurus have reneged on their 2006 promise to nominate Wario for CB6, as that was the character for choice for last season's Guru Champ, Rufus. I'm afraid I have to add them to

The Wall of Shame
Scorpion / ScorpionX Soul
Heroic Mario / ?
Big Bob / TheYear20XX
Yesmar / Ramsters8806
Mac Arrowny / macarrowny
stingers / glifer 57
plasmabeam / Axl Classic
deth / dethaddr@yahoo.com
Smurf / smurfsdabomb
arkenaga / TeckDragonD
FFDragon / CentralDragonz
Jmast / Jmast7@yahoo.com
swirl / ?
outsider / ?
Ayvuir / Ayvuir77
TheRye / NDFootballFan2k8
SonicLink / Glinkg15

Alongside their names you see contact info, which I intend to use to once again remind these wayward Gurus of their duties.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:03:46 PM | message detail
How do you know they didn't nominate Wario? Or is that just a list of people who didn't post in the topic?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:05:21 PM | message detail
I'm assuming they posted in the Nomination Tally topic and didn't have Wario among them.

To be fair, Wario is kindof lame, but I still nominated him even though I wasn't in the Guru contest. D:
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:07:41 PM | message detail
Because they have made their 15 noms public, and Wario was not one of them.

Shamed Gurus: when you get a friend to nominate Wario in your place, and thereby fulfill your Guru duty, post that you're done so in the nomination tally topic so we can keep Wario moving up the B8 ladder.

And Kax, you sound mighty confident in that Ganon-bashing! I take it that you'd be willing to extend our Ganon > Crono bet through 2007 then, eh?

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
ZFS | Posted 8/11/2007 6:08:26 PM | message detail
I'm such a rebel.

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believe
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:10:54 PM | message detail
Must be a definition of that word I haven't been taught... because when I looked you up in MY dictionary, the definition that came back was

one who violates his allegiance and betrays his country; one guilty of treason; one who, in breach of trust, delivers his country to an enemy, or yields up any fort or place intrusted to his defense, or surrenders an army or body of troops to the enemy, unless when vanquished; also, one who takes arms and levies war against his country; or one who aids an enemy in conquering his country; hence, one who betrays any confidence or trust; a betrayer

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
ZFS | Posted 8/11/2007 6:12:39 PM | message detail
Guilty as charged.

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believe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:17:21 PM | message detail
believe
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/11/2007 6:17:31 PM | message detail
You shouldn't enter the guru contest if you don't plan on nominating what the winner requests. It kind of makes you look like a jackass.

~*ST*~
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:18:47 PM | message detail
You heard it here first.

HM is a jackass.
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:19:22 PM | message detail
No 'kind of' about it!

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
ZFS | Posted 8/11/2007 6:20:05 PM | message detail
If the winners would stop requesting some of the worst characters to be nominated, I might remember once in a blue moon to nominate them.

But what's done is done. No big deal, right, fellas? I'll sit this one out as punishment for abandoning the Mother Country.

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believe
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:20:26 PM | message detail
Surely this can't be the first time someone said it, Kleenex.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:20:33 PM | message detail
Ban his ass.
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
ZFS | Posted 8/11/2007 6:21:22 PM | message detail
Jack the Ass. Representin'!

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believe
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 6:21:52 PM | message detail
there were 15 nominations this year. I had so many empty spaces that I didn't even care that I nominated him.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/11/2007 6:23:39 PM | message detail
No need to sit it out HM- following your believe brackets is always a highlight of the Contest for the whole stats community. Just get someone who hasn't finished their full 15 to nom Wario, and it'll be just as good as having done so yourself, so your duty will be done.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:29:55 PM | message detail
I wanna win the guru just so I can get Protoman in next year

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2007 6:32:50 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

0%. Nightmare is not making it. Period.

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match

30%. Mewtwo can win, but I don't see much hope out of these guys unless it's a 128 bracket.

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

33%. You never know when SBAllen will say "Screw the ToC, I have money."

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

40%. Mega Man and Crono look the most vulnerable.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

10%. Tails's time in the contest looks done, and I don't think Shadow's game will help him enough (if it helped at all).

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

85%. Samus, Zelda, Tifa are locks, and some others got exposure last year that might gain some support now.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

0%. None of this Bidoof garbage, he's not getting in.

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

100%. Through the Nomination Rally (which doesn't appear when I search for it) and MGS4 art, Raiden should join Solid Snake.

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest

0%. At least for my sake. Kefka's meh, and everyone else is pretty bad. I mean...Terra only got 55% on Kerrigan...that's terrable.

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

40%. Seifer can do it, but I'm not sold.

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

70%. Riku's strong enough to win, it just depends on who he gets.

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

70%. Kratos's strong enough to win, it just depends on who he gets. And of course, if he gets Riku, then one or the other is at 100%.

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

5%. We shouldn't need to go through matches we've already seen, unless they were so close last time that they warrant a revisit.

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

30%. Maybe Chun-Li joins Ryu, but I kind of doubt it.

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud

15%, all of which rides on some crazy post-tournament gimmick that eliminates one or the other before the final showdown.
---
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Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:33:25 PM | message detail
I want to win the Guru so that I can get some really obscure game nobody has heard of in the game contest, and have it get less than 1% on SSBB. =D
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2007 6:34:15 PM | message detail
Ah whoops, I knew I nominated too early.

It's all well and good though because my friend is a WarioWare fan and had him nominated from the get-go. Now it depends on whether you believe me or not, which you should.
---
Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
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therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 6:34:32 PM | message detail
Everytime I see all this Zelda talk, I can't help but think that she's going to fall flat on her face as far as everyone's expectations go. I just don't see Zelda as being potentially the strongest non-noble nine character. If she goes up against one of the others, I have a feeling she'll disappoint.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:35:56 PM | message detail
See, the problem with that is that the friend was nominating him anyway, so you didn't actually do anything to help. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2007 6:36:45 PM | message detail
See, the problem with that is that the friend was nominating him anyway, so you didn't actually do anything to help. <_<

No clause for that in the rules. Now go annoy someone else please.
---
Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
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swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2007 6:37:26 PM | message detail
adding "<_<" in case you think I'm seriously angry at you or something.
---
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Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:37:55 PM | message detail
I'm not trying to annoy, I'm simply pointing out that you're wrong.

From Ngamer64 Posted 8/11/2007 9:23:39 PM #189
Just get someone who hasn't finished their full 15 to nom Wario, and it'll be just as good as having done so yourself, so your duty will be done.

You didn't get him to do it. He did it himself.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 6:38:21 PM | message detail
Ah, that changes a lot. >_>
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
swirIdude | Posted 8/11/2007 6:39:13 PM | message detail
But seriously, if NGamer thinks I would nominate someone like Nights who has no chance just to betray the mother Guru country, he has to get his head tightened on. I don't think he thinks that but who knows!
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