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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 447

ZFS | Posted 8/10/2007 5:52:06 PM | message detail
I think I like Raiden/Mewtwo better than Raiden/DK. I think the big ape is probably a bit over Raiden's head (...for now).

You gotta believe, man!

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/10/2007 6:40:16 PM | message detail
I dunno, give me Raiden over DK. Dk just doesn't inspire any confidence anymore, and to go at it a bit further, he never will, now that rare is in microsoft's hands. Yeah nintendo still has the rights to DK, but what have they done to revitalize a solid snes (and n64) series? Bongos. He hasn't had a proper hyped platformer since DK64, and it really feels like a waste considering how good all his previous games were.

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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/10/2007 6:56:48 PM | message detail
Also, have we ever gotten a bracket on the weekend before? Or can we postpone waiting until Monday?
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
therealmnm | Posted 8/10/2007 6:57:04 PM | message detail
Why is everyone down on Tifa? When exactly has she disappointed? Vincent got 44% on Crono last year and Tifa got 43% on Sonic. And Crono wasn't that far ahead of Sonic. Plus there's that whole Advent Children thing in the middle of the contest. Then she crushed the competition last year before giving Samus her biggest scare. Not just anybody could have done that to Zero Suit Samus. So why exactly is she not in the same league as Zelda/Ganondorf/Vincent anymore? Tifa had Advent Children and KH2 since 2k5 and kicked ass in both. She's had just as much reason to increase as Vincent last year. Any of those characters facing Tifa wouldn't automatically be out the woods...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
NominateSerge | Posted 8/10/2007 8:30:26 PM | message detail
I have a hard time believing that Tifa could reverse a 57/43 beatdown.

...She wouldn't really be "reversing" anything. Sonic was noticeably weaker in 2003 compared to 2005. And I just don't see Tifa being anywhere close to Aeris after their contest performances last year. No way Tifa lets Yuna get anywhere close to beating her, nor does she let Zelda beat her that handily. Regardless, I think Aeris probably just lost a step or two since 2003 anyway. I mean, if you think Tifa and Aeris are THAT close together and Zelda scores closely the same percentage on both, then Zelda would be a legit threat to Sonic.

Also, gimme Bowser > Zelda. Sure, the princess looked very impressive in nearly all of her matches, she's got TP on her side now, and Zelda > Mario in general here (though there are exceptions, like this one, in my opinion), but I think if they're close, the SFF favors Bowser. Don't ask why, but it's just my gut. Besides, the one match where I don't think Zelda really impressed, the one against Yuna, gives me reason to believe that she's not as strong as she seemed to show against Aeris and Samus. After all, Ganondorf beat Yuna 4% worse than Zelda did, and I'll take Leon Kennedy safely over Yuna without worrying too much about it.

And upon examining last year's stats (which aren't worth that much, I grant you), Ganondorf scores 53.89% on Bowser. I know the rest of you don't think that badly of his match against Crono as I do, but I just feel like Ganondorf could've done better LAST year (after all, he only did 2% worse on Samus than Bowser did on Crono), and now he has TP, though it's uncertain how much that game helps him. I'll root hard for Bowser and hope he can pull some rSFF ('cause I don't see any reason he's directly stronger than Ganondorf, quite frankly).
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Nominate Serge.
swirIdude | Posted 8/10/2007 8:35:24 PM | message detail
And Crono wasn't that far ahead of Sonic.

Didn't Sonic beat Crono?
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
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swirIdude | Posted 8/10/2007 8:35:41 PM | message detail
Oh, different year's stats? Carry on.
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334
NominateSerge | Posted 8/10/2007 8:37:33 PM | message detail
So I guess I'd go Ganondorf > Bowser > Zelda for the first Nintendo trio.

Also, I'll take Vincent > Squall > Tifa for the Square trio, and Auron's closer than some think. I don't think he beats any of those three though.

Overall...If I were to rank all six...That'd be tough. I still want to take Vincent over them all, and I just couldn't stomach putting Ganon over Squall (the same thing happened in 2005 when I took Squall > Magus, which worked out pretty nicely for me). Besides, you can still make a legit argument for Squall there, though I highly doubt more than a handful would take him over Ganondorf.

So...I guess I'll go Vincent > Squall > Ganon > Bowser > Zelda = Tifa.

But I really feel that they're all fairly close together. I honestly feel that they're all within about 5% (in a direct match) of each other. Basically, as always, I'm confused and I can see any side of this argument. All the more reason I want a contest.
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Nominate Serge.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/10/2007 10:23:20 PM | message detail
We really need the damn bracket.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/10/2007 10:26:17 PM | message detail
well.. another day.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 12:20:57 AM | message detail
Again, what exactly has Tifa done to get on the **** end of that stick?
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
transience | Posted 8/11/2007 12:24:06 AM | message detail
I think it's more, what has she done to earn being the top dog? she's strong, no doubt. but the only real match that she's impressed in is that Samus match, and I have no idea what to make of that. beating up fodder doesn't really impress me. her match with Peach wasn't really all that great, Luigi got like 47% on her (would Squall let that happen?), and she didn't have a great match with Sonic. yes, I know, KH2. but Squall had that too, and Vincent had his own game as well. it's not that she's weak, I just respect others more.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 12:41:17 AM | message detail
What, did you expect her to triple Peach or something? What's wrong with doubling up a solid midcarder? We all know that Nintendo seems to step it up in Nintendo/Square matches. I see nothing wrong with her performance against Peach. She crushed mostly everyone else she went up against and put up solid numbers on Crono and Samus. You can't hold that Luigi match against her 2 years after Squall faced him. Luigi definitely would do a lot better against Squall in a rematch. Again, she's stepped up to the plate in every match that she's had. It's not her fault she wasn't thrown a Ganondorf, Zelda, or anyone else like that to prove herself against. I see no reason to put her out of the equation with Vincent and Squall.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
transience | Posted 8/11/2007 12:49:50 AM | message detail
I expected more from that match with Peach, yeah. not a lot - just like 2% - but some. I know, I'm nitpicking, and I'm not saying Squall would 60-40 Luigi today. I do think he'd get 55% though. Zelda put up 57% on Aeris, Squall did 49% on Vincent who did 45% or something on Crono (and then 48 on Sonic the next year), Ganondorf beat Auron pretty convincingly and Bowser crushed Ryu. I guess you could blame me for getting too stats-oriented here, but I just tend to trust characters who have done it before. Tifa hasn't had a match that really made my jaw drop. no, I don't count beating up on crap like Vyse. she's not "out of the equation", but I simply respect others more, like I said before.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 1:00:41 AM | message detail
And like I said, she hasn't gotten a solid character like that to prove herself against. But she's crushed the lesser characters she's faced like any of the other near-elite would have. And her 2006 was outstanding. You couldn't expect any more out of her. Certainly nothing that would make you try to link her to Aeris before the other FF characters (Squall, Vincent, Auron). I mean, it's okay if you think that the others would beat her, but the talk in this topic is that those characters are out of her league. I don't see where you would come up with that.

Like I said, using JUST stats alone, Vincent only beats Tifa by 2-3% in 2k5 and that's WITH Advent Children released mid-contest. They both impressed in 2k6, and Vincent took care of Ganon. I see no reason why Tifa couldn't have done the same in 2k6. Again, taking the others as favorites over Tifa is one thing. Saying she's out of their league is totally different.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
transience | Posted 8/11/2007 1:06:17 AM | message detail
I never said she was out of their league! ah, I guess someone else did. but I don't think that.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/11/2007 1:14:38 AM | message detail
I really Wish DK got a Buff of some sort.

Seems kinda wrong that he isnt near elite.
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Hi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/11/2007 7:22:34 AM | message detail
Seems kinda wrong that Pac-Man is so damn weak

It's just the way the cookie crumbles

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xuxon | Posted 8/11/2007 8:12:12 AM | message detail
Let me see if I can rationalize my thinking on the just below noble niners, at least in terms of their strength a year ago.

Vincent - Easiest to place, I'm not taking anyone but a NN over him.
Zelda - I would guess that she is second, but her place is uncertain. For example, I'd say Tifa > Zelda is more likely than Tifa > Ganon.
Ganon - Also easy to place. Clearly a touch below Vincent just like last year says.
Squall - Hardest to place. 2k5 and 2k6 conflict so much. I'd hesitate to simply say Snake SFF. He could lose to Bowser or beat Ganon/Zelda.
Tifa - Another hard one to place. Could be anywhere from 3rd to 6th.
Auron - I don't see him doing a lot against this group. Might beat Tifa or Squall.
Bowser - Not beating anyone here except maybe Squall.
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NLB - Level 97/98/98/99/99/99, 39 hunts completed - Undying defeated
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 8:41:52 AM | message detail
Sprite Snake put up "massive" numbers on Yoshi in that he didn't nearly lose to him - but Yoshi is perhaps the most overrated character in the bracket. Assuming Mega Man is just as strong as he looks without even a hint of overrating... MM gets 52% on Yoshi indirectly.

...no.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 9:01:01 AM | message detail
Squall - Hardest to place. 2k5 and 2k6 conflict so much. I'd hesitate to simply say Snake SFF. He could lose to Bowser or beat Ganon/Zelda

Uh, how high do you think Squall is? What about his 2k6 ranking makes you think he could have gotten SFF'd?
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 9:34:57 AM | message detail
Assuming Samus 2k5 = Samus 2k6, Squall is at 33.16 on BL, significantly less than his 2k5 ranking. That's not necessarily a good measure by a long shot nor does it account for all the wonkiness of 2k6's stats in general, but it's certainly a way to think that Squall is lower than he should be.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 8/11/2007 9:44:22 AM | message detail
Heh, I didn't actually look at the numbers, I just remember people crying Snake/Squall SFF before Snake showed what a beast he was. I completely forgot that in the end Squall still managed to rank really high. Now I'm positive about Squall > Auron/Bowser and pretty sure about Squall > Tifa.
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NLB - Level 97/98/98/99/99/99, 39 hunts completed - Undying defeated
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 9:49:20 AM | message detail
Vincent Valentine 40.44%
Squall Leonhart 39.77%

Weren't these the raw stats based off of Samus? What exactly is the problem?
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 9:54:07 AM | message detail
Also, a question to determine how Tifa is in relation to Vincent... who ya got, Peach 2k6 or Alucard 2k6?
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 10:01:56 AM | message detail
real tough one. Alucard > Peach just feels right.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/11/2007 10:18:04 AM | message detail
Peach.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/11/2007 10:19:03 AM | message detail
I'll have to look into it, but it feels kinda wrong to group Alucard with Jill.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/11/2007 10:19:45 AM | message detail
...I'd totally take Alucard btw.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
LordOfDabu | Posted 8/11/2007 10:20:43 AM | message detail
Especially after the recent XBOX live SOTN rerelease!
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Hello world
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 10:56:02 AM | message detail
Barring another drop I'd take Alucard with confidence. But either way you look at it, at least indirectly Peach would be expected to beat Alucard if Tifa is equal to Vincent.

Peach beating, oh, Sub-Zero would have Tifa taking out Sonic without too much of a struggle.

...I guess this is the part where I have to remind myself that Peach is almost certainly overrated not only through Samus/Tifa, but Tifa/Peach (take a look at the match pic if you don't remember)
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/11/2007 10:57:35 AM | message detail
I'd **** the three of them.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 11:04:49 AM | message detail
I've never played FF7 much but I don't see much fishy about the picture at first glance. is that sprite really that bad?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
transience | Posted 8/11/2007 11:05:44 AM | message detail
it's not from FF7, I believe. it's from some cellphone game or some such.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 11:15:12 AM | message detail
The quality of the sprite aside, it's just not recognizable to anyone that's only played FF7. The background helps, of course. Much like it helped Snake - but it's very clear that Yoshi is still vastly overrated - and even if you go the "Nintendo SFF" route, I don't buy that it's to that extent. Something was happening with the pic there, and I'd be shocked if it wasn't happening here.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
ZFS | Posted 8/11/2007 11:40:28 AM | message detail
Cowgirl Tifa, baby!

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believe
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 11:48:43 AM | message detail
I don't want to hear another thing about the sprites in 2k6. The background pictures are as clear as they've ever been. Take the sprites away and they would still pass as regular match shots as is. The standard FF7 picture of Tifa is clearly there and draws just as much attention as the sprite. No way Peach is overrated due to that match pic.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
therealmnm | Posted 8/11/2007 11:51:48 AM | message detail
Further more, how is that not recognizable to someone that's only played FF7? It's clearly Tifa in her battle stance from that game... just with a cowgirl hat on. One might question where did that specific pic comes from, but I don't see how someone wouldn't recognize that as Tifa. White shirt, short brown skirt, brown boots, and in a fighting stance.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/11/2007 11:59:49 AM | message detail
hey mnm they are unrecognizable
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
hochiminh155 | Posted 8/11/2007 12:36:32 PM | message detail
wario vs ramza - battle of the characters who haven't appeared since 2003 - who wins?

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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/11/2007 12:38:05 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Solid_Mike86 | Posted 8/11/2007 12:45:53 PM | message detail
Anyone think Macus Fenix from Gears of War will get in this contest?
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~R.I.P. Super Luigi~
NominateSerge | Posted 8/11/2007 1:16:59 PM | message detail
but the talk in this topic is that those characters are out of her league.

Hey, I said that all six were probably within about 5% of each other (although thinking about what that actually means, I should've said 10%), so the order is really up for grabs, as far as I'm concerned. I think Tifa gets 45%+ on Vincent (barring any SFF, but I don't think there would be any, personally), and I've got him at the top of my list.

Oh, and Alucard > Peach, and Wario > Ramza (unfortunately). Ramza just hasn't done anything (well, except now they're putting out that PSP remake of FFT, but with PSP ownership being pretty low, I don't expect it to do much of anything for him) to stay even with Wario, who has every reason to be at least somewhat stronger since the last time we saw him. Remember that Mario characters seemed to benefit the most from the Nintendo boost.
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Nominate Serge.
NominateSerge | Posted 8/11/2007 1:35:28 PM | message detail
Let's play Oddsmakers!

1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud
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Nominate Serge.
Osfan | Posted 8/11/2007 1:57:06 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament
1% 5 seems like too many especially with more noms being added giving more options to people. Course theres alwasy the 128 idea...
2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match
100% when hasnt at least one made the field?
3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket
1% possible but i hope not.
4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year
33% nothing big has happened to spell the end yet but with the way some of them are dropping each year anything is possible.
5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series
10% 128 or bust here i cant see both shadow and knux making it and tails would just be tragic...
6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket
100% after last year i think we will see more support for female characters. Sure y not. Samus Zelda Peach Tifa Yuna Aeris. Chun, The Boss, Rikku Sure someone else will for sure...
7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest
100% Bidoof and Mewtwo
8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest
100% Again this isnt hard to see happening especially after they got 2 in with a female half.
9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest
0% All were disappointing I sure hope fans of the game will just let it be so I dont have to suffer through the losses again...
10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest
50% Seifer seems to be the talk who knows maybe..,
11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match
1% He needs alot of help to win namely anything that wont SFF him or be Nintendo or Square...
12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match
66% He has the hype he'll get a good match and then dissappoint
13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)
50% who knows depends alot on the twist if any.
14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket
45% I think Chun can make it back she wasnt horrible like most of the female side but without the forced female she could easily be forgotten
15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud
33% I dont think we will see another BR and anything else makes the odds alot less likely
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"I'll do it with my magic!" - Tellah FF4
consolefreak | Posted 8/11/2007 2:07:39 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

That's a little too ambitious, I'd say. 10%

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match

At least one should make it. 75%

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

Hmm, the nomination page didn't mention anything. It could definitely happen. I'll go with 50%.

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

A good chance this year. 45%.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

Knuckles should definitely make it, but I don't think there's gonna be a 3rd one in there. 35%

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

Lol :d

Well, there's Samus, Tifa and Zelda, and then there's a bunch of FF chicks and some other random females like Chun-Li possibly entering. Considering the chance of an increased entry schedule as well, I'll go with 80%.

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

Nah. We should be happy if Mewtwo makes it. But then there's Bidoof, I guess. 45%

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

Good question. Ocelot is probably the most likely one, but there's a couple of other ones like The Boss, Big Boss or Liquid that could pop up. 50%

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest

After what the girls did last year, I doubt they'll be coming back. Kefka could miss out as well. 40%

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

It would have to be Seifer, and I somewhat question his chances. 45%

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

He probably will. 60%

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

I'm expecting him to receive more noms than Riku, with comparable contest strength. 65%

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

Err, I'd have to look into this for a serious guess :p I'll just go with 55%

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

Also a tough one. Even Ryu couldn't convince with his seeding last year, but that was with the females taking away all the votes. I really don't know. 50%

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud

Heh :d Assuming you make no distinction between possible ToCs or whatever and mean the absolute last match before the PotD returns, I'd have to say it's really unlikely. 20%
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2007 2:24:06 PM | message detail
I don't want to hear another thing about the sprites in 2k6. The background pictures are as clear as they've ever been. Take the sprites away and they would still pass as regular match shots as is. The standard FF7 picture of Tifa is clearly there and draws just as much attention as the sprite. No way Peach is overrated due to that match pic.

And you conveniently ignore Snake/Yoshi in that little tirade - again, him getting 48% on Mega Man - going through nothing but the same opponent, no less - is not something you can just pass off as a random fluke (well, you can, but it's not a particularly convincing argument without some semblance of reasoning).

Tifa's sprite looks godawful in that picture. If you had showed that to me without the background pic, I would have NOT recognized that as Tifa, and I replay FFVII pretty much every year. The stance is the only 'hint', and if you're keen enough to catch that you're not one of those people who were going to be influenced by the match picture in the first place. Perhaps just as importantly - it looks BAD, which can be as meaningful as anything when influencing the mindsets of voters.

Do the background pictures help? Of course, I'm pretty sure I *just* said that (and it was clearly a popular sentiment during the actual matches). But you're not going to flat-out insist to me the sprite had zero effect whatsoever, not after the gigantic anomalies I've seen in the past revolving around pics.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Lady Ashe | Posted 8/11/2007 2:44:12 PM | message detail
1. Odds that all five Nomination Rally winners make it into the tournament

10%. Some of them are barely getting any nominations here, and they aren't the type that I see casuals nominating.

2. Odds that at least one Nomination Rally winner wins a match.

Assuming seeding isn't ridiculous, Raiden has a good shot. Mewtwo and Seifer have the potential as well. Let's say 60%.

3. Odds that Clinkerothiomus are placed in the bracket

75%. No disclaimer, so...

4. Odds that the Noble Nine finally collapses this year

10%. Sure, they are looking weaker, but with Clinkerothiomus back in the main bracket, Vincent, Zelda, and Ganondorf will have to get lucky with seeding in order to face Sonic/Megas/Crono. Then they actually have to accomplish the feat.

5. Odds that we have more than two characters from the Sonic series

Eh, 50%

6. Odds that we have more than five females in the entire bracket

75%. Samus will be the fifth. <_<

7. Odds that more than one Pokemon gets into the contest

80%. Nomination Rally Character + Joke Character.

8. Odds that more than one Metal Gear character gets into the contest

95%. Nomination Rally Character + Solid ****ing Snake.

9. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VI character gets into the contest.

15%. There isn't any effort to group all of their nominations all towards a certain character (Other than the obvious Kefka), so I doubt it.

10. Odds that more than one Final Fantasy VIII character gets into the contest

66.6~%. Nomination Rally Winner + Squall.

11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

45%. He'll get a bad seeding.

12. Odds that Kratos (GoW) finally wins a match

...GoW2 wasn't around in the previous contest, right? 100%.

13. Odds that we have at least one rematch that ISN'T Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine (There can be ONE Noble Nine character involved though)

Don't care enough. <_<

14. Odds that we have more than one Street Fighter character in the bracket

Don't care enough. <_<

15. Odds that the contest ends with anything other than Link vs. Cloud

37.5%. Maybe they'll end up on the same side if they get in. But it's not like they'll be losing any matches or anything.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.board8wiki.com/Lady_Ashe
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 2:51:27 PM | message detail
11. Odds that Riku finally wins a match

45%. He'll get a bad seeding.


what makes you think he'll get a bad seeding? he got a 3 seeding in a 32 bracket. that equates to a 3/4 seed in a regular contest bracket.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/11/2007 2:52:52 PM | message detail
er, 2 seed I mean. I dunno. it's high.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
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