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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 446

therealmnm | Posted 8/8/2007 11:52:11 PM | message detail
For Tifa to win the bracket, not only would a new FFVII game need to be released, but she would have to be the star, kick obscene amounts of ass, and then after you beat the game, a physical manifestation of her pops out of the screen and has sex with you.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/8/2007 11:57:12 PM | message detail
Master Chief didn't lose to Sub-Zero because of Mortal Kombat Armageddon. Come on now. Sub-Zero was the more popular character.

And that very well could be. But the precedent of a new game being released the day of a match is one that's highly untested. He couldn't have had more ideal conditions.
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2007 12:00:22 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transience | Posted 8/9/2007 12:00:50 AM | message detail
HM gets a "whoops"
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xyzzy
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/9/2007 12:00:52 AM | message detail
Wrong topic, Mario fanboy!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/9/2007 12:01:05 AM | message detail
oh god we so got him!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2007 12:01:23 AM | message detail
Damn. I couldn't get a quick stealth delete. :(

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transience | Posted 8/9/2007 12:02:34 AM | message detail
the thing is, Sub-Zero went and impressed even his loudest supporters (hi) against Auron. that was a good 3 weeks after the game came out. I'm not buying that he does significantly worse a month before.
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xyzzy
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/9/2007 12:02:39 AM | message detail
Eh, don't feel too bad. I've posted stats stuff on the pro wrestling board before. >_>
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transience | Posted 8/9/2007 12:03:26 AM | message detail
you should leave it there just to confuse people.
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2007 12:03:39 AM | message detail
Yeah. I wouldn't say Sub-Zero getting that game mattered much.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
Lopen | Posted 8/9/2007 12:22:16 AM | message detail
the thing is, Sub-Zero went and impressed even his loudest supporters (hi) against Auron. that was a good 3 weeks after the game came out

And what, the boost from a game goes away after 3 weeks now? Thing is, Master Chief didn't even need a whole % of the vote to win that. We're not asking for miracles, here. People were screaming for this effect in Cloud/Mario.

I'd say on another day, a few weeks after, Master Chief slimly wins because the hype from the game wore off. Another day a few weeks before the game is released, Master Chief wins without any real trouble because there's no boost. 53-47 or so.
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/9/2007 12:27:19 AM | message detail
Yeah, Subby only got 51% against the Chief; the game didn't have to have affected him too much to have given him the win in the first place.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 12:40:43 AM | message detail
People were screaming for this effect in Cloud/Mario.

1) SMS >>>>>> MK:A as far as popularity, name-recognition, hype, and sales go.
2) Planet Gamecube was linking to GameFAQs that same day, amplifying the effect.
3) I don't think people were calling for a 4% swing for Mario/Cloud like you are for MC/Sub-Zero...but my memory might be failing me on this one.

Point is, I couldn't imagine MK:A having anywhere near the effect SMS did. I think MK:A would be doing good to have had a fifth of the effect SMS had, whatever amount that is.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/9/2007 12:44:04 AM | message detail
I don't think people were calling for a 4% swing for Mario/Cloud like you are for MC/Sub-Zero...but my memory might be failing me on this one.

A "4%" swing for Mario/Cloud would be much bigger than a 4% swing for MC/Sub-Zero, since Mario and Cloud are so much higher in the stats.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 12:44:49 AM | message detail
Plus, if it would have effected the match just enough to where it was literally 50-50, I would take Sub-Zero on the basis of people rallying both for somebody they've grown up with through several generations and against one of the most hated gaming icons in today's world. I say this knowing MC was the HHUUGGEE bracket favorite and that people may rally based on that. For MC to win, I think it would have had to effect Sub-Zero by more than 1%...and I don't buy it. A tiny bit, sure, but not enough to cost Sub-Zero the match that day.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 12:46:55 AM | message detail
A "4%" swing for Mario/Cloud would be much bigger than a 4% swing for MC/Sub-Zero, since Mario and Cloud are so much higher in the stats.

I'm not considering their x-stat positioning; I'm talking about the direct match. In both Mario/Cloud and MC/Sub-Zero, if Mario/Sub-Zero were effected by 4% in their match, that doesn't carry over to their final x-stat values as well. I just mean the match-up.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/9/2007 12:51:43 AM | message detail
I'm not considering their x-stat positioning; I'm talking about the direct match. In both Mario/Cloud and MC/Sub-Zero, if Mario/Sub-Zero were effected by 4% in their match, that doesn't carry over to their final x-stat values as well. I just mean the match-up.

Obviously. But it's much easier for Subby to go from 47% to 51% on MC than it is for Mario to go from 46% to 50% on Cloud. Subby would have to rise by a smaller amount from his game than Mario did from Sunshine.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 1:03:29 AM | message detail
Oh, gotcha' now, but they're still similarly close matches and I would still defend my stance even after considering their proportions. Sub-Zero has less focus in the MK games than Mario in the Mario games, SMS at any point >>>>>>> MK:A at any point, and Mario had additional linking (which, considering it was Planet Gamecube, was also feeling some extra SMS-love).

Mario had two hyped sites on his side because of a much bigger game than Sub-Zero's game...or, honestly, probably any of Sub-Zero's games, but especially MK:A. Really now, how many people on GameFAQs outside of those keeping up with the contest knew or cared that MK:A was coming out?
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Osfan | Posted 8/9/2007 1:12:43 AM | message detail
Whats with the Tifa hate on this board anyway. I mean even in 05 she breaks 48 on Vincent. People make it sound like Vincent has her beat to a pulp when they draw on the same fans and theres no denying who fared better last year. (no matter how much of a joke that is) She isnt winning the bracket but I wouldn't put her outta Vincents league like most people would. She would lose against him directly no doubt but indirectly i would say shes just as much a threat as he is. She has also got KH in her favor... and DoC is renowned for milking a franchise nothing more so saying that helps much if at all doesn't make sense. I mean Vince didn't get new fans from that game whereas Tifa could've pulled new fans from KH.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 1:19:19 AM | message detail
An optional character from FF7 getting his own game in a new genre seems more capable of getting new fans than an almost-starting character from FF7 being featured in another RPG. Also, it seems like Vincent is much more favored in FF:AC than Tifa.

Of course, that's a one-sided argument -- I know KH2 was received much better than DoC and Tifa had more screen-time in FF:AC. I'm just saying Vincent and Tifa probably boosted similarly. Tifa's definitely a threat, but like 2k5 would suggest...not as big of one as Vincent is. Vincent would have beaten ZSS last year.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/9/2007 1:20:07 AM | message detail
Making the new stats topic now, since the current 447 was nothing but some loon spamming a few days ago.

And check the sig plz <_<

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Lopen | Posted 8/9/2007 1:27:21 AM | message detail
If people weren't calling for a 4% swing in favor of Mario, they should've been. I mean... looking at next year's stats, they paint it as a 12% swing in favor of Mario.

And by the way, I'm not saying the game being released so soon to the match is responsible for a 4% swing. The day of the match thing is like 1-2%. The game just giving him a boost in general would be the other 2%. I'm unsure as to why a MK:Armageddon is deemed as unlikely to give any sort of boost when people are screaming for boosts from just about any other source they get can their hands on.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/9/2007 1:51:27 AM | message detail
I always thought it was weird as well how reluctant people were to allotting Subby's victory to the MK release. Did it cause a huge Sub-Zero boost? Highly unlikely. Did it have to? Absolutely not. Hold that match without MK releasing what I thought was 4 days prior (could be wrong here) and I definitely take the Chief to win it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/9/2007 1:55:24 AM | message detail
ah, MC/Sub: the best day on GameFAQs to me. I managed to get the lowest match prediction percentage right ever!
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voltch | Posted 8/9/2007 3:03:27 AM | message detail
who would youy call the most unpredictable character in these contests?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/9/2007 5:32:03 AM | message detail
From consolefreak Posted 8/9/2007 4:51:27 AM #374
I always thought it was weird as well how reluctant people were to allotting Subby's victory to the MK release. Did it cause a huge Sub-Zero boost? Highly unlikely. Did it have to? Absolutely not. Hold that match without MK releasing what I thought was 4 days prior (could be wrong here) and I definitely take the Chief to win it.

I think it was 90% Chief anti-votes and 10% Armageddon release. Still have no clue how Sub-Zero managed to win that given the stat disaprity between Scorpion and Chief, though.

From voltch Posted 8/9/2007 6:03:27 AM #376
who would youy call the most unpredictable character in these contests?

Jill Valentine. She's a lock for a close match every year.

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Osfan | Posted 8/9/2007 5:32:20 AM | message detail
LOL Pac Man he is unpredictable in the sense that you never know how outrageous the pic advantage is gonna be.
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jonthomson | Posted 8/9/2007 5:34:41 AM | message detail
who would youy call the most unpredictable character in these contests?

Tidus
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2007 7:56:23 AM | message detail
Donkey Kong always gives us a match to remember.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/9/2007 8:37:33 AM | message detail
But he's predictable in that he's guaranteed to choke.

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Buzzup | Posted 8/9/2007 8:38:17 AM | message detail
Well so does Jill Valentine.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2007 11:09:49 AM | message detail
I have no idea what's been going on in the stats topic since I last left, so I'm just gonna arbitrarily throw a few questions out there.

1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?
2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)
3. Will Ryu be able to avoid a doubling from a Noble 9 member once again and stand his ground against them, or his time to decrease and start being trampled upon finally come?
4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?
5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?
6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?
7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?
8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/9/2007 11:22:43 AM | message detail
I think Matt would be stronger than Bidoof indirectly. Wii > Bidoof.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/9/2007 11:23:34 AM | message detail
1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?
It should be down to Vincent, Ganondorf, or Zelda. I'll say Vincent still, I guess... but it's a tough call.


2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)
Um...Mewtwo.

3. Will Ryu be able to avoid a doubling from a Noble 9 member once again and stand his ground against them, or his time to decrease and start being trampled upon finally come?
Ryu is linear. His 40+% losses has all been a coincidence of opponents. He would be doubled if he faces Cloud, Link, and probably Sephiroth... put him against Samus, and I guarantee he'd fail to hit 40% (unless it was ZSS).

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?

5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?
...whoever beats MC, maybe? =P

6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?
Um... maybe someone like Frank West, or Matt or Bidoof.

7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?
I'll say Matt, by a touch... as long as people recognize Matt as being a Mii.

8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?

Biggest boost... probably Kratos. Biggest drop... no idea.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2007 11:25:09 AM | message detail
You know you wanna answer those questions. Also to comment from a few pages back, Auron > Sora is a duh, Auron/Squall could be a toss up but I'd take Auron for the upset, and the winner of Auron/Squall would lose to Vincent in a close one.

Oh yeah, and even if Mega Man decreases this year, he's not gonna lose to Non-Noble 9 members >_>
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2007 11:26:24 AM | message detail
Yay! good job Haste
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/9/2007 11:29:12 AM | message detail
Oh, yeah...

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?
Um... Zelda vs. Ganondorf? I've seen people on both sides here.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/9/2007 12:09:04 PM | message detail
1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?

Zelda.

2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)

Midna.

3. Will Ryu be able to avoid a doubling from a Noble 9 member once again and stand his ground against them, or his time to decrease and start being trampled upon finally come?

Depends. I would say yes to any of the remaining N9 except perhaps for Snake.

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?

Bowser/Ganondorf.

5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?

Either: Luigi, Zelda, Ganondorf, Vincent Valentine, or Bowser. The victim: Mega Man.

6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?

Bidoof.

7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?

Matt due to the GameFAQS Wii craze.

8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?

Biggest Boost: Zelda/Ganondorf.
Biggest Decline: Tifa. NOT using screwed up 2k6 stats, Mega Man.

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Tediz247 | Posted 8/9/2007 12:22:13 PM | message detail
1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?

Either Zelda or Ganondorf. TP should give both of them just enough to edge out Vincent and Tifa. A Zelda/Ganondorf match would give me headaches though.

2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)

Balthier. He's FF, he's the most popular character in his game, and his game is still popular enough to be the number 2 FAQ on the site (yeah, I know, that isn't a good measuring stick, but still...)

3. Will Ryu be able to avoid a doubling from a Noble 9 member once again and stand his ground against them, or his time to decrease and start being trampled upon finally come?

Unless he faces Cloud or Link, he won't get doubled.

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?

Probably something like Master Chief/Magus. It would probably be fairly close if Magus has declined, it would have a massive vote swing, and with those two fanbases, accusations of cheating would be thrown everywhere.

5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?

Solid Snake over Sephiroth. Aww yeah!!

6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?

No idea. It really depends on matchups.

7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?

I hope neither makes it, but if I must... Bidoof, because he'd have LL's support.

8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?

Boost: Definitely Kratos. Nobody has as much reason to jump as he does.

Drop: Crono could be in for another fall. GameFAQs is getting younger, and with no sign of anything CT-related on the horizon, we could soon be discussing whether or not the likes of Ganondorf could take him.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2007 2:06:26 PM | message detail
1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?

My money is on Ganondorf/Zelda

2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)

I would have to say Balthier or Midna would be the strongest

3. Will Ryu be able to avoid a doubling from a Noble 9 member once again and stand his ground against them, or his time to decrease and start being trampled upon finally come?

I can't see him dropping randomly again. He's always been fairly consistant, aside from the anomaly that was his 2k5 appearance, and that was behind a bucketful of fishiness to boot.

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?

Hard to say without a bracket

Considering the upcoming releases though, if we get a match with one of the Brawl characters near the end of the contest (Snake/Samus/Mario vs Sephiroth for example) then we could have alot of whining. Master Chief has the potential for this too if he can last long enough.

5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?

Any of the characters that have been underrated the last couple of years, or someone going up against someone who might be OVERrated. A perfect match for this IMO would be Zero/Knuckles.

6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?

Matt the Mii, especially if we hold tradition and have the weakest 8-seed job to a 1-seed Nintendo character in the first round.

7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?

Matt

We already had a joke Pokemon last year, so the originality is kind of gone, but the concept behind nominating Matt is genius.

8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?

Biggest boost will probably be Kratos. Biggest decrease will be Magus, especially since we haven't seen him since 2k5.

TuRtLe
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2007 2:11:23 PM | message detail
Oh, and on the subject of Master Chief, if his match last year had been even a week earlier (damn you CJay for starting with the female half) he would've won, although Sub-Zero still would have surprised alot of us. If Subby gets back in this year, I have a feeling he's going to disappoint.

TuRtLe
~~~
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2007 2:50:27 PM | message detail
Disappoint? Subby faced Auron with his newer less recognizable look, then he was behind Crono/Auron, Solid/Sonic, and Samus/Solid...if anybody believes in the anomaly-theories involved with those matches, it only favors Subby. If anything, Sub-Zero will look better this year. MC would probably beat him this year, but Subs should look better statistically speaking.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/9/2007 2:54:08 PM | message detail
Meh, Sub-Zero is older than most characters in these contests. I really doubt Mortal Kombat Armaggedon played any significant role in his strength unless you are saying that the game brought droves of Mortal Kombat fans to the site... which is highly unlikely. I seriously doubt Sub-Zero would see any kind of fall this year.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/9/2007 2:55:03 PM | message detail
And by older than most characters, I mean that his popularity is already well established.
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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2007 3:51:54 PM | message detail
1. Who will be the strongest Non-Noble 9 member of this Contest?

Ganondorf.

2. Who will be the strongest new character in this contest?(Hell you can put Raiden if you like since he's basically new since being SFF'd shouldn't count for anything.)

Including Raiden (darn you SFF), then Raiden for certain. Not including Raiden, then I'd say either Midna or Balthier. Leaning toward Midna right now.

4. If you had to predict a match that would be most controversial(think Kefka/Vercetti, Crono/Mario, etc)what would it be?

Sonic vs. Mega Man, maybe.

5. What character will create the biggest upset of the contest?

Raiden totally smashes Auron's face!

But, really, I have no idea. It's dependant on the bracket moreso than any character.

6. Who will be at the bottom of the x-stats?

No idea.

7. Who will be the better joke character if both of them make it. Bidoof or Matt the Mii?

The Mii thing. But both are pretty crappy.

8. Finally, what character will gain the biggest boost, and which will gain the biggest decrease in strength?

Kratos for biggest boost; Mega Man for biggest decrease, I suppose.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/9/2007 3:55:41 PM | message detail
I don't understand why Zelda has so many supporters for being the strongest non-nobler... I mean even if you think she'd win against Ganon in a head to head match (I really don't know who I'd choose), I don't see why anyone would believe Ganon isn't at least indirectly stronger.

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ZFS | Posted 8/9/2007 4:04:57 PM | message detail
The only advantage I've ever been able to come up with for Zelda is she bears the namesake of the series. Outside of that, she's really done almost nothing that puts her in a more advantageous position over Ganon, be it directly or indirectly.

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SonicRaptor | Posted 8/9/2007 4:20:36 PM | message detail
Meh, Sub-Zero is older than most characters in these contests. I really doubt Mortal Kombat Armaggedon played any significant role in his strength unless you are saying that the game brought droves of Mortal Kombat fans to the site... which is highly unlikely. I seriously doubt Sub-Zero would see any kind of fall this year.

Yeah, MK is one of those series that will never increase but never decrease in popularity or name-recognition. People know who Scorpion, Sub-Zero and the other MK regulars are simply by being familiar (but not necessarily fans) of the MK series.

MK characters are dark horses. They appear to be disadvantaged but put up a fight and are capable of upsets on midcarders (Sub-Zero over Master Chief is one of the biggest upsets of all time, IMO). If either Scorpion or Sub-Zero make this contest and are not placed against a nobler or close-to-noble the first round...pick the MK character, it will give you a massive boost.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/9/2007 4:23:45 PM | message detail
I kind of want to see a Scorpion/Sub-Zero match some day just to see how the SFF would flow.
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